Thread by @philippilk

1/ Yesterday I published an article in @unherd arguing that the situation leading up to the French riots is being driven by high food prices and low consumption. I presented INSEE data showing a 17% drawdown in food consumption, totally unprecedented in recent history. Chart 👇

2/ I wouldn’t usually comment on the response to one of my articles - negative comments really don’t bother me. But the response to this was fascinating: person after person expressed disbelief in the numbers, said I hadn’t sourced them, and surmised that I made them up.

3/ I did not, of course, and I’ll link to the stats on France’s central database below. But its the reaction that I thought fascinating. I’ve never been accused by multiple independent people of just making up stats before. What an odd response!

4/ So what was it all about? Why were all these people saying I made the data up? Well, obviously they couldn’t believe the numbers. They were too shocking. If true, they presented a picture of Europe of catastrophic proportions.

5/ The more I thought about it, the more I suppose this to be the case. The impacts of the war on food prices don’t shock me. This is what war DOES. Its why so many wars trigger upheaval. But I guess many others are not familiar with this.

6/ It seems many people are locked into a mindset that (a) nothing that happens elsewhere in the world really affects them and (b) for all of our problems, developed countries will always be able to provide the goods on basic foodstuffs.

7/ Well, the latter point remains true - at the time of writing anyway. 17% decline is a massive number. But no one will starve. That said, skipping a meal or vastly lowering the standards of your diet might make you, well, hangry and that is enough for social pressure to build.

8/ The idea that the developed world is insulated from what happens abroad, however, is a very dangerous assumption. The cause-and-effect of the 17% decline in consumption are obvious enough. And there are other tensions rising in the world right now.

9/ The current war has only impacted energy and food prices. What do you think an all-out trade war with China would look like? Replacement parts for key components would likely dry up. You ain’t seen nothin’ yet folks!

10/ Anyway here is the link to the INSEE data. Feel free to replicate my chart. Its real.
insee.fr/en/statistique…

11/ And here is the piece that provoked the denialism. Check out the comments if you’re interested.
unherd.com/thepost/blame-…

12/ Screen-grab of chart on INSEE website.