Leading Nowhere Profile picture
Jul 4 12 tweets 6 min read Twitter logo Read on Twitter
EKI Energy...a story.

Auditor of EKI Energy resigned in Nov'22, stating emphatically there was no dispute with management, and audit for H1FY23 was completed by them w/ clean limited review report.

But in Q3FY23, new auditor Walker Chandiok trashed the financials.

(1/12)

Management has recognised revenue, AGAINST opinion of auditor, in absence of fulfillment of contractual performance obligations!

In polite words, this seems to be fake revenue. 190 crore sales (~10%) and 110 crore (~40%) PAT. Almost half PAT is possibly...non-existent.

(2/12)
Now, EKI has STILL not released Q4FY23 results. It says this is because Walker Chandiok has to re-audit H1FY23 which was done by previous auditor. Seems like a valid reason, except it begs the question - why wasn't re-audit of H1FY23 being done since Nov'22?

(3/12)
To summarise so far, Walker Chandiok called 9MFY23 financials as 'made up' by the management. What is shocking is that the flagged issue, performance of contractual obligations, is mostly matter of FACT not opinion - management simply decided otherwise.

(4/12)
Full audit takes place only at the end of the year, so you can chipkao whatever you want in the interim?

How is this not misrepresentation of financials?

Interestingly, number of shareholders has shot up 2200% in 9MFY23 while price has dropped 75%!

(5/12)





Around the time this stock was peaking, lots of articles started coming out in dubious media showing the 80x price rise....distribution tactics? Especially when it coincides subsequently with supposedly cooked up financials to enable offloading to retail?

(6/12)



Even now reputed media like LiveMint carry pieces highlighting the 'multibagger' returns of this stock - and not surprisingly, the number of shareholders has FURTHER increased from 44K to 52K. Oh you unwitting doyens of investor welfare.

(7/12)

So here's the summary:

(1) 80x price rise based on tight shareholding

(2) After peak in Q4FY22, financials supposedly cooked up for 9MFY23

(3) During cooking period, 25x rise in public shareholders while price dropped 75%.

(4) Party's over, unravelling begins

(8/12)
This is a very fit case for @SEBI_India to initiate forensic audit for previous fiscals too, especially considering auditor allegations + almost nil cash flow in FY22 - means all the financials are only on paper (and perhaps not even that, if auditor to be believed).

(9/12)
In H1FY23, EKI showed OCF of ~150 crore, mostly from managing inventories and trade receivables. And remember, Walker Chandiok has already called out improper recognition of revenue and profits...which should also impact the cash flow statement....cannot trust these nos!

(10/12)
Walker Chandiok and EKI are probably having a massive tiff for the last 6 months over finalising FY23 accounts.

Wonder how this ends, will management 'convince' the auditor or will auditor take a stand?

Either way, there is enough here for @SEBI_India to investigate.

(11/12)
EKI's auditor issues are known, but I have been observing this vaporware since IPO and felt it was useful to contextualise the sequence of events - many will say promoter shareholding has not changed - but the real game is probably in the background!

(12/12)

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More from @leading_nowhere

May 6, 2022
1/ A good way to contextualize PE ratio, think it as earnings yield:

5x = 20%
10x = 10%
20x = 5%
30x = 3.3%
50x = 2%

As you go down this scale, you're paying increasingly more for growth + durability + intangible assumptions. If assumptions uncertain, how much would you pay?
2/ If you're worried about inflation and interest rates, just remember:

A 10% bond purchased at FV 100 is at 10 PE.
A 5% bond at FV 100 is at 20 PE.

It is a very simple way to analyze how much extra you'd pay for equity if I could give you a safe 10% bond instead?
3/ Yes, we are in equities for the unlimited upside, but once you spend a few years in the market and experience the realities, you will get a razorsharp focus on wanting to pay less and get more.

A steady-state earnings yield analysis is an excellent way to get perspective.
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Most scenarios, vertically-integrated = better margins, as long as cost of key inputs becomes small fraction of costs eventually.

If KI are 50-60% cost at final stage w/ sharp price hike = business at sole mercy of end-customer w/ demand destruction.

Observe next few quarters.
In this scenario, commodity producer will not budge as many buyers in the market. Person who gets squeezed is the penultimate link in the chain. If end-customer unwilling to absorb full price hike, manufacturer WILL be holding the bag to keep the relationship.
Especially pertinent for exporters and industries where demand is very price sensitive. During benign pricing scenario you can get more efficient with vertical integration and improve realizations. However, when basic commodities roar, you will bear disproportionate impact too.
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(Thread)

Some thoughts on investing in listed family-owned businesses.

Cobbled together from several years of investing in and observing such companies, and also some professional interactions with business owners.

👇
1) There are immense latent capabilities in family-owned businesses. People in business for 30-40 years, building incrementally. Eg. so many companies spent *decades* for 0-100, 5 years for 100-500, and are now aiming 500-5000 in next 5 (not accurate, but you get the point)
2) Most promoters aren't looking to rip off investors. But, they will put themselves first. Why? For promoter, business is his life's work (no matter how small) but for you it is an investment. Always see it from this perspective and differentiate every situation.
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The 6 buckets of information I look at when analysing a company for the first time.

Most of these tend to be small companies with little coverage but with larger competitors.

A thread 👇 (1/14)
A. Assessing Promoters -> 60% holding preferably (not iron rule), either highly educated or very experienced in the business. Preferably minimal related party transactions, no unlisted entities with significant operations. Do not grudge high salary if otherwise clean. (2/14)
B. Assessing Balance Sheet - Looking for a clean, boring unremarkable balance sheet, not a good one. Preferably low historical share dilution (not including bonus). Preferably with only working capital debt. Share warrants in small quantities not a red flag. (3/14)
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A random assortment of thoughts on smallcap/microcap investing, once again 👇
Most important thing in small and microcap investing is to set aside the notion that market is rigged / full of scammers. If you believe this, you are best avoiding this space. Most people shouting scam don't understand the space and basic reflex is to call it rigged. (1/n)
You have to believe there are good, capable people looking to tap opportunities and grow. Most smallcaps/microcaps exist for decades without looking interesting. Even storied names like Aarti and Deepak Nitrite spent *decades* building scale and expanded at the right time. (2/n)
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Nobody really knows how much more markets will fall, or till when. Best you can do is stagger your purchases as the companies you like get cheaper. Bottom will be made before anyone tells you it has been made. Focus on valuing the companies you like, with a margin of safety.
I am fundamentally positive on India - if you don't believe in this, perhaps equity investing isn't the right form of investment for you. Remember, if things are as screwed as they seem to be, you have bigger problems than just stock markets.
There will always be a section of people making fun of the buy the dip investor - but the world isn't black and white - unless you have no money, you should nibble when the price looks right to you. Now with some limited hindsight, you know the valuations that aren't sustainable.
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