Anatoly Karlin Profile picture
Jul 4 5 tweets 2 min read Twitter logo Read on Twitter
AMERICA

There's nothing paradoxical about this. Russia's war was in a major sense an attempt to become an America by (re)acquiring the USA/USSR-level economies of scale needed for viability as a sovereign civilization, in the more sophisticated Russian nationalist apologetics. https://t.co/wmA3jSG0s0
But even for kremlins the main motivation was to cosplay American imperial adventures (with <10% of the economic base) and to earn "respect" from Americans, which flubbed due to their own incompetence, but which itself can be ultimately traced back to Russia not being America.
That is, not having the economies of scale and status as elite human capital magnet that America possesses, and of which it harnessed a tiny fraction of to quash what is probably Russia's last roll of the dice to become an America of its own rather than just part of America.
So there's actually nothing paradoxical about those attitudes, even beyond the matter of simple self-interest, you either need to destroy or at least forcibly eject America to become America yourself, anything less is a matter of negotiating the terms under which you join GAE.
In geopolitical terms, there's an analogy with Germany in H1 20C, where it was quite widely realized that to remain a relevant superpower they'd need to become a continental scale economy with a much bigger population; the Nazis only took that to its most maximalist conclusion.

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More from @powerfultakes

Jun 30
The bet you're making with crypto is continuing digitization with crypto its most rigorous framework for property rights.

This was before AI.

A world that's increasingly dominated by intelligent digital agents is hyper-bullish for credibly neutral decentralized trust layers.
I have been making this point since the start of this year. But it bears repeating.

I think the train is leaving soon, no late check-ins.

"It's about to become very painful to have nothing at all in the market." - @Roko__eth
@Roko__eth I actually think there's like a not insignificant chance that crypto accelerates AI doom.

(It's not a unique view, either: https://t.co/dzvTBN9jeF)

But if AI doom programmed I'd still rather spend the last years poolside.akarlin.com/time-for-jail-…
zuzalu.network/t/about-the-15…
Read 4 tweets
Jun 29
UKRAINE WAR: CASUALTIES UPDATE

63% of Ukrainians now say they know at least one "close relative or friend" who died in the war, the average number being three. As before, the deaths are more concentrated as you go west: 60% in the West, 52% in the East. https://t.co/Je0cCNHNbo https://t.co/OOCDU2MGKXkiis.com.ua/?lang=ukr&cat=…
twitter.com/i/web/status/1…
This would appear to actually be very bad news for Ukraine, since in the last such survey in February, "only" 17% reported losing a close one (and 9% six months before that).
That is, it suggests the death rate actually increased. Which is rather puzzling, because Ukraine's materiel balance (armor, munitions, etc.) relative to Russia has been improving over the past year.

Possibly the Bakhmut "meatgrinder" actually did do its grim job.
Read 7 tweets
Jun 27
SHOIGU IS ETERNAL

Presidents come and go, but Shoigu remains in place and keeps failing upwards, even as his tenure contributes to accelerating demoralization within the Russian Armed Forces that has now translated into an abortive coup.

How does he do it? https://t.co/VxtCMzu2AItwitter.com/i/web/status/1…


In retrospect, I think the puzzle was already answered in Russian nationalist writings about the rather "peculiar" nature of the Ministry of Emergency Situations (MChS) that Shoigu headed from 1991-2012.

The most comprehensive one is by Politdrug: sputnikipogrom.com/people/17051/s…
As well as by Galkovsky (a name that every Russian nationalist knows but he is unknown in the West) as early as 2005:

In the battle of sovereignties between the late USSR & RSFSR, the latter had the problem they had no men with guns who answered to them.galkovsky.livejournal.com/59049.html
Read 18 tweets
Jun 25
Funniest part is the Western r*ghtoid projections backwashed into the rotting brains of Russia's boomer elites and they started larping them earnestly instead of building a smart original HBD/IQ-based rightism. So I gave up on it all and just went full 🌐🏳️‍🌈 as I said I would.
I don't know why the r*ghtoids are so mad at me as if I owe them anything or claim I flip ideologies daily, I very clearly and repeatedly said months ago my "invalidation" conditions, if no atomic space empire then gay merchant republic, not based shithole.

@antesignanvs Even today, a majority of EHC isn't vegetarian. However, carnivorism wrt at least higher animals will almost certainly be viewed with extreme repulsion a century hence. Consequently, one should energetically oppose it and avoid it, at least as anything other than a private vice.
Read 4 tweets
Jun 25
WAGNER CORPORATE DISPUTE AFTERMATH

Best explanation to date is from @marmar_ae (see attached Tweet): Some conbination of razborka and chimp-out over redirecting the money flows to Wagner back to the Russian military, from which it had previously been cannibalizing by promising… https://t.co/9w9ektC4i2twitter.com/i/web/status/1…
PS. I don't really agree with Marko's extremely negative assessment of Wagner's combat power ("fradulent new-age start-up guru bullshit"). Prigozhin himself probably had little to do with it directly, but at least unlike Putin, he's able to select people who have some baseline… twitter.com/i/web/status/1…
Back to the corporate dispute. Many assumed (including myself) that it was a classic coup, because all the pieces fit. You don't just move in force on Moscow, downing helicopters and killing a dozen+ uniformed Russian military along the way, have your Telegram channels scream… twitter.com/i/web/status/1…
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May 10
RUSSIA'S WAR ECONOMY (OR LACK THEREOF)

I have been expressing skepticism about Russia's war economy for months now. (@devarbol started on kremlin's underground factories earlier).
However as is the pattern reality not just the downside scenario but its absolute bottom:


Not just low, uncompetitive salaries. But the advertised ones involve extreme extra hours. And some absurd shit like "voluntary" contributions to the SMO.verstka.media/sotrudniki-ros…
The really funny thing is I constantly get these claims I "flipped" after Kherson (despite calling it early and saying it's a good idea) when my consistent position for the past year is that the materiel balance is the crucial part and is moving against Russia inexorably.
Read 5 tweets

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