For Many People In Canada There Is No Housing Crisis: All Levels Of Government Depend On That Fact
If you bought a house in Ontario before 2013 there is no Housing Crisis
In fact if you just own the one house and your mortgage isn't renewing now, things look pretty good
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If you bought in Ontario longer than 10 years ago you have experienced a remarkable increase in personal wealth
The value of the house has doubled at worst and may have come close to a 250% run-up in value depending on region
Oh, and you likely paid down your mortgage
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Some people have no mortgage and many have comparatively small mortgages
While alot of those people who have seen a huge increase in tax free wealth worry their children will have a tough time owning a home they also DON'T want to see any Property Tax increases
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They mostly DON'T want to see any big decrease in property values, they like the financial cushion this huge amount of home equity has created almost by magic
As one of them said on Twitter this weekend: "Why do you call this a Crisis?"
No crisis for them for sure
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That's why Governments may worry about losing votes from young people BUT don't panic because Mayor's and Cabinet Ministers know there are alot of votes available in maintaining the status quo
So the almost unbearable problem some people feel in our Housing Market continues
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House Prices In Canada's Provinces Are Wildly Different: Real Estate Is Local But What's Going On Here?
Quebec homes cost HALF of average Ontario prices
Alberta house prices are half of Ontario and BC average home prices
It's striking
Can we see reasons for this?
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It's easy to say these provinces are all dramatically different in history, geography, economy, culture so Real Estate Prices should be different
But are there OBVIOUS reasons or trends for 100% price differences?
I can think of a few
Ontario / Quebec feature: Immigration
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Over the last 24 months Quebec had a unusually high level of 200K New Canadians due to higher Refugee claimants, Quebec normal immigration target is 60K per year (Quebec population 8.8M)
Ontario in the last 24 months: immigration of just under 1.1M (Ontario population 15M)
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Did We Finally Hit A Breaking Point On New Construction In Growing Regions
Remember when John Tory casually increased Development Fees by 49%
Money paid to levels of Government now represent 31% of new build prices
New Development Lending Cost is up 250% in 16 months
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Provinces and Municipalities have become so slow and clumsy at approving anything from a permit on 1 New Home to infrastructure to allow new subdivisions to get built
28 months to get a new home building permit in Toronto is one example
What if we have hit a breaking point?
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What if Developers and Builders just have to step back because the there's no obvious way to make a profit
Or the level of uncertainty as to how long it will take and how complicated it will be to finish is just so unknown it's not worth the risk of starting the process
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