Ron Butler Profile picture
Jul 4 5 tweets 1 min read Twitter logo Read on Twitter
For Many People In Canada There Is No Housing Crisis: All Levels Of Government Depend On That Fact

If you bought a house in Ontario before 2013 there is no Housing Crisis

In fact if you just own the one house and your mortgage isn't renewing now, things look pretty good

2/
If you bought in Ontario longer than 10 years ago you have experienced a remarkable increase in personal wealth

The value of the house has doubled at worst and may have come close to a 250% run-up in value depending on region

Oh, and you likely paid down your mortgage

3/
Some people have no mortgage and many have comparatively small mortgages

While alot of those people who have seen a huge increase in tax free wealth worry their children will have a tough time owning a home they also DON'T want to see any Property Tax increases

4/
They mostly DON'T want to see any big decrease in property values, they like the financial cushion this huge amount of home equity has created almost by magic

As one of them said on Twitter this weekend: "Why do you call this a Crisis?"

No crisis for them for sure

5/
That's why Governments may worry about losing votes from young people BUT don't panic because Mayor's and Cabinet Ministers know there are alot of votes available in maintaining the status quo

So the almost unbearable problem some people feel in our Housing Market continues

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More from @ronmortgageguy

Jun 30
How Cool Is The Canadian Real Estate Market Today? Pretty Damn Cool

The June 7th Bank of Canada 25 bps rise had a remarkable impact on House Sales which had improved since Feb 2023

Variable Rate Mortgages only increased 25 bps but Fixed Rates jumped a whopping 70 - 100 bps

2/
Mortgages that could be had for as low as 4.69% 3 - Yr Fixed were suddenly back to 5.59%

It was like a pin into a balloon for RE Sales

Don't get me wrong: end of June through end of August is always a slow time in the RE business

But this seems EXTRA slow

VERY slow

3/
Slow RE like October 2022 RE slow

Possibly more impactful than the rise in Fixed and Variable Rates was the sudden certainty that these rates WON'T DROP THIS YEAR

Yeah, that's maybe a bigger story: the belief that there will likely be no significant rate reduction till 2024

4/
Read 6 tweets
Jun 29
House Prices In Canada's Provinces Are Wildly Different: Real Estate Is Local But What's Going On Here?

Quebec homes cost HALF of average Ontario prices

Alberta house prices are half of Ontario and BC average home prices

It's striking

Can we see reasons for this?

2/
It's easy to say these provinces are all dramatically different in history, geography, economy, culture so Real Estate Prices should be different

But are there OBVIOUS reasons or trends for 100% price differences?

I can think of a few

Ontario / Quebec feature: Immigration

3/
Over the last 24 months Quebec had a unusually high level of 200K New Canadians due to higher Refugee claimants, Quebec normal immigration target is 60K per year (Quebec population 8.8M)

Ontario in the last 24 months: immigration of just under 1.1M (Ontario population 15M)

4/
Read 6 tweets
Jun 28
Did We Finally Hit A Breaking Point On New Construction In Growing Regions

Remember when John Tory casually increased Development Fees by 49%

Money paid to levels of Government now represent 31% of new build prices

New Development Lending Cost is up 250% in 16 months

2/
Provinces and Municipalities have become so slow and clumsy at approving anything from a permit on 1 New Home to infrastructure to allow new subdivisions to get built

28 months to get a new home building permit in Toronto is one example

What if we have hit a breaking point?

3/
What if Developers and Builders just have to step back because the there's no obvious way to make a profit

Or the level of uncertainty as to how long it will take and how complicated it will be to finish is just so unknown it's not worth the risk of starting the process

4/
Read 6 tweets
Jun 27
Inflation In Canada Drops Like A Rock To 3.4% What Will The Bank Of Canada Do With Interest Rates?

Tiff Macklem the BoC Governor almost promised another 25 bps increase last week stating he will stop at 5%

Now with a major drop what will he do?

Declare victory and stop?

2/
I don't make those guesses

And alot of this drop is "Base Effect" which is the outcome of 12 months ago Inflation
being in prime run-up mode

So what happens next?

There will be NO TALK of BoC cutting rates: the Bank will relentlessly emphasize this is NOT the 2% target

3/
Which is factual 3.4% isn't 2%

BTW this makes all the talk of the "New" concept of a 2.5% - 3% target central bank target seem a little early

But will Tiff decide to follow through on his "one more 25 bps increase" promise?

I put it 50 / 50

So we wait till July 12th

4/
Read 5 tweets
Jun 23
Canadian Real Estate Has Become Highly Mortgage Rate Sensitive: Does A 1.00% Increase Sink House Sales?

We are about to find out

3 - Yr Fixed Rates that briefly hit 4.59% in March and spurred a bounce in house sales through May are back to 5.59%

We are about to find out

2/
We feel it already

Reduced Pre-Approval calls and stories of Offer Nights coming and going with nothing happening

Interesting concept: a 2 - Yr Fixed at 6.19% means the borrower must qualify for the mortgage at a 8.19% Rate

Yeah, not a typo 8.19% Mortgage Qualification

3/
Some old timers will say: my Mortgage back in the early 80's was 18%

Yeah but the house price was $179K and inflation was roaring, wages in Union Jobs increased 4% a QUARTER

So let's drop those comparisons please they don't make sense

The question is, who can qualify?

4/
Read 5 tweets
Jun 22
Does The Bank Regulator Plan To Stop Rental Investors Getting Lots Of Residential Mortgages? YES They Do

Part of the current OSFI Review of Residential Mortgage Rules is controlling creation of Rental "Empires"

10, 15, 20 Rental properties with residential mortgages is rare

2/
But they do exist and OSFI wants no more of it

The most recent general limitation on Residential mortgages for individuals is 1 owner occupied home, 1 Vacation Home and 5 rental properties

Rental properties could be up to 4-plex but only 5 individual titles as Residential

3/
People can have as many rentals as would work under Commercial Mortgage rules but Residential is capped

When OSFI issues their final proposal this Summer the likelihood is likely further restrictions on total individual mortgage debt

The concept is becoming quite clear

4/
Read 6 tweets

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