In Germany @derspiegel, @welt, @ntvde and in Austria @derStandardat write that "the Ukrainian Offensive has failed"... ...
That is wild nonsense.
This nonsense happens, because all of them interviewed the same expert, who doesn't understand Ukraine's Offensive phases, of
1/25
which there are at least 5, and we're barely in the middle of Phase 1 - Attrition & Interdiction.
I wouldn't have to do this thread, if i.e. @derStandardat wouldn't confuse the Ukrainian Army's Assault brigades, with the National Guard's Offensive Guard brigades, but...
2/n
The reason people don't consider Ukraine's Phase 1 a success comes from people being used to US/NATO wars, in which Phase 1 is purely air power.
Phase 1 is meant to attrition enemy forces and interdict/disrupt their lines of communication. The West uses fighters and bombers, 3/n
and cruise missiles for that.
During the 1991 Gulf War 1,700+ coalition combat aircraft needed 37 (!) days and 100,000+ sorties to attrition the Iraqi forces enough to trigger the ground campaign. And 288 Tomahawk cruise missiles were fired at Iraqi targets. 4/n
During the 2003 Invasion of Iraq coalition combat aircraft flew 41,000 sorties and fired 802 Tomahawks at Iraqi targets.
This time the coalition skipped the attrition phase and went directly to Phase 2 - Close Air Support = bombing a road to Baghdad for the 1st Marine and 5/n
3rd Infantry divisions.
Ukraine doesn't have any of this air power; and so Ukraine is forced to replace fighters and bombers with GMLRS, Excalibur, Storm Shadow and drones.
Whereas in US and NATO operations the sky is continuously swarming with fighters and bombers looking 6/n
for enemy positions and vehicles to annihilate, all Ukraine has in the air are drones, which look for russian equipment, ammo points, command centers, logistic points, etc. but the drones can't bomb these objects.
Once a drone spots a target, the drone operator has to request
7/n
mensuration, the results of which are then transmitted to either a M142 HIMARS or M270A1 MLRS launcher, which will enter the target's coordinates into a GMLRS rocket; or transmitted to a M777, PzH 2000, M109A6 or Archer howitzer, which will enter the target's coordinates into 8/n
an Excalibur projectile; or the data is transmitted to the Ukrainian Air Force's 7th Tactical Aviation Brigade, which will enter the target's coordinates into a Storm Shadow...
Did you notice that all of these take time? Ukraine can only hit russian equipment that is static. 9/n
Unlike Western fighters, which can hit the passenger seat of a driving car, Ukraine can only hit russian vehicles and objects that are static. A massive drawback.
Even worse: a US fighter jet can fly deep into enemy territory, and hit a dozen targets 500km behind the front, 10/n
while Ukraine's range is limited to:
Excalibur range: 40 km
GMLRS range: 84 km
Storm Shadow range: 500+ km, but only in limited numbers
Ukraine is massively handicapped by the time it takes to hit a russian target and by the range of its systems. (GLSDB will improve HIMARS 11/n
range but the production line is not yet running...)
Now if you're russia, all you have to do it to park your heavy equipment outside of GMLRS range and Ukraine can't hit it.
It makes no sense to use a expensive Storm Shadow missile to hit i.e. a russian T-90M tank...
12/n
Still Ukraine must attrition russia's heavy equipment before it can begin Phase 2 of the offensive... and the only way to do it is to bait russian forces into GMLRS and Excalibur range.
And Ukraine is doing this right now by attacking the russian lines with four of the ten 13/n
All other brigades (i.e. 35th Marine, 68th Jaeger, etc.) are merely supporting these four brigades. 14/n
A further six brigades can be deployed for this phase. Now the russians are in a dilemma: either bring their heavy equipment forward and risk losing it to GMLRS and Excalibur or leave their heavy equipment out of range and allow Ukraine an unexpected early breakthrough
15/n
through the russians lines... well, the russians decided to bring their equipment forward and Ukraine is hitting it relentlessly.
Still it is a far, far slower process than air power... and unlike in an air campaign Ukraine is losing troops and vehicles... and this has led 16/n
to some analysts declaring the Ukrainian Offensive a "failure"... it is NOT. These "analysts" and "experts" just fail to understand the Ukrainian plan.
And they fail to understand that Ukraine gets stronger every day: Ukraine readied 35 (!) brigades for the offensive, by
17/n
raising new units, splitting existing units, pulling units out of the front and refreshing them... and just 4 of 35 are in the fight now.
All the others are at the training grounds - training every day to improve their skills; AND incorporating the lessons learned in the 18/n
offensive so far.
And every day troops return from training in NATO countries and Sweden; and new equipment arrives - the Offensive Guard brigades started out as light infantry... and are now getting tanks from Germany and Denmark, turning them into mechanized formations. 19/n
So many troops return from training in Europe that Ukraine recently formed three new brigades; and as the russians have stopped attacks in the South and along the Donetsk front, Ukraine recently pulled two elite brigades out of the front to freshen them up for the offensive.
20/n
How can an offensive have "failed" if more than 90% of forces are still training for the offensive?
I do not know when the next Phase of the Ukrainian Offensive will begin... but I am sure it is not tied to a date or certain geographic locations.
21/n
I assume the next Phase will be triggered when Ukraine is confident it has destroyed a certain % of the remaining russian howitzers, rocket launchers, electronic warfare systems, air defense systems; and degraded russian logististics by striking russian supply lines, and 22/n
destroyed most of the russian ammo dumps and command posts... you know, the exact same parameters that triggered the ground campaign of Operation Desert Storm in 1991.
Ukraine's Offensive has barely begun. And due to the lack of air power Phase 1 will take far longer than 23/n
people are used to... but journalists need to come up every day with a fresh new drama.
But the real story here is how many more forces Ukraine is readying, how many more forces Ukraine and NATO are training, and how much more equipment the West needs to donate for these
24/n
new units.
In Phase 3 Ukrainian forces will slice through russian lines and liberate Mariupol; will cross the Dnipro and liberate Northern Crimea; and will destroy russia's army in the South.
Ukraine's victory is inevitable. We just need a bit of patience.
25/end
• • •
Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to
force a refresh
1) embarrasses putin & weakens his position ✅ 2) forces russia to move troops from Donbas & Southern Ukraine to Kursk & Bryansk, which weakens russian's frontline in the South ✅ 3) forces russia to send fighters & helicopters forward
1/4
to compensate for russia's lack of ground forces in Kursk, which gives Ukrainian anti-aircraft units ample opportunities to shoot down russian aircraft ✅ 4) Ukrainian troops continuously maneuvering / advancing, while disrupting russian communications through the use of EW,
2/4
forces russian reinforcement convoys to loiter within GMLRS/ATACMS range, while russian officers try to figure out where Ukrainian forces are. Thus enabling Ukraine to strike the russians & cause mass casualty events ✅ 5) provides Ukraine with territory & POWs to trade ✅
3/4
The vicious online reaction to The Acolyte shows, that right-wing "media critics" are film-illiterate grifters, who latch onto even the most minuscule line to disparage each episode. All to confirm their delusion that media involving #LGBTQ & colored 1/5
creators are an attack on the "white male", who they pretend to be the true arbiter of "culture".
@Lucasfilm even gave a hint in the first line of the first trailer that this is a #Rashomon style story. This didn't stop these "critics" to complete lose it after the first 2/5
flashback episode, which is a child's viewpoint.
Disney's third trailer showed us that what we saw in the child's flashback (left image) isn't, what actually happened (right image).
The Acolyte is by no means as good as #Andor (which is an anti-fascist masterpiece), but 3/5
1× frigate
1× submarine
1× oiler
1× tug to tow the above home when they break down
The russian ships were shadowed by:
🇺🇸Los Angeles-class attack submarine USS Helena
🇺🇸Arleigh Burke-class destroyers USS Donald Cook & USS Truxtun
🇨🇦Halifax-class frigate HMCS Ville de Québec 1/2
🇺🇸Legend-class cutter USCGC Stone
🇺🇸1× P-8A Poseidon maritime patrol aircraft
And in case the russians would have done something funny: there are some additional 50+ P-8A Poseidon at Naval Air Station Jacksonville, which is also home to the 159th Fighter Squadron, which 2/5
flies F-35A & at Homestead Air Reserve Base the 93rd & 367th Fighter Squadrons fly F-16C/D Block 30 Falcons, at Tyndall Air Force Base the 43rd & 301st Fighter Squadrons fly F-22A Raptors, while the 95th Fighter Squadron flies F-35A Lightning.
For 20 years war criminals from Karabakh had Armenia in their iron grip. In 2018 they were forced by the people to allow free elections and the democratic opposition won 70% of the vote, while the Karabakh criminals' party lost 90% of its votes and did not enter parliament.
1/4
Aftet the disastrous defeat in the 2nd Karabakh war, the Karabakh clans demanded a snap elections, got it, and were crushed again with the democratic and pro-peace forces of Pashinyan receiving 54% and the two let's-have-more-Karabakh-wars parties at 26%.
Now, as Pashinyan is
2/4
negotiating a peace treaty with Azerbaijan, the same Karabakh clans try to overthrow the government with street protests led by a bishop, who is for issuing ridiculous ultimatums.
The deranged Armenian diaspora is hyping up the bishop and protest, and theu are salivating at
3/4
How to do mobilization for war in the perfect way: the @USArmy in #WWII:
When Germany invaded Poland the US Army consisted of just 6× divisions (1st ID, 2nd ID, 3rd ID, 1st CAV, Hawaiian Division, Philippine Division).
1/12
In October 1939 the Army added the 5th ID and 6th ID. Afterwards the US Army fielded 8× divisions.
After the Germans invaded France with 141× divisions, the US Army activated another 4× infantry (4th, 7th, 8th, 9th) and 2× armored (1st, 2nd) divisions.
Total: 14× divisions. 2/n
In fall of 1940 the National Guard was federalized. This added 10× infantry divisions (27th, 30th, 31st, 32nd, 35th, 36th, 37th, 41st, 44th, 45th).
In spring 1941 a further 8× National Guard divisions were federalized (26th, 28th, 29th, 33rd, 34th, 38th, 40th, 43rd).
3/n
Today Germans found out that raising and stationing a Panzerbrigade in Lithuania will cost up to €11 billion...
Of course, because if you devastate your military for 30 years and create gaps in personnel, materiel, etc. it costs MORE to rebuild than it would have cost to 1/5
maintain your military. Germany between 1989 and 2024 reduced its battalions (active and reserve) by the following %:
CBRN Defense -63,64%
Artillery -92,68%
Reconnaissance -45,45%
Paratroopers -66,67%
Signals -66,67%
Air Defense -100,00%
Gebirgsjäger -25,00%
Panzer -91,76%
2/5
Army Aviation -70,00%
Light Infantry -96,98%
Logistics -83,70%
Panzergrenadier -82,81%
Engineers -83,33%
Medical -84,00%
Bridging -92,86%
Total: -87,47%
Disbanded the units, paid to have the equipment and materiel scrapped, sold of the bases, and retired the people with the 3/5