Marko Jukic Profile picture
Jul 5, 2023 17 tweets 8 min read Read on X
Globalization is probably as old as civilization.

Most underrated historical trend not because it rose so high recently, but because it rose from such a high base.

Claims of Ancient Roman jewelry excavated as far away as Japan and Tanzania.

A 🧵 on ancient globalization:



It is easy to notice a recurring pattern of surprisingly distant trade in historical accounts.

Pliny the Elder and Seneca are both recorded complaining about how much money was being spent on Indian spices and Chinese silk. Roman glassware has been found in China.

Roman trade with India was definitely more developed than with China, which seems to have been only indirect.

Alexander the Great invaded India in 327 BC and left behind a Greek kingdom in Afghanistan and central Asia, after all, so India was known to the Mediterranean world.
The "Periplus of the Erythraean Sea" is a 1st century AD Greco-Roman manuscript that describes known trade routes in the Indian Ocean, from the author’s own experience.

It shows the Horn of Africa and India were trade partners, and awareness of China too. But also…
It describes a route that goes south along the coast of East Africa in “Azania,” terminating in the southernmost trading post of Rhapta, likely in modern-day Tanzania.

Tantalizingly, the author seems to know that, if you keep going, you eventually reach the Atlantic Ocean!
The Romans apparently also made expeditions to West Africa across the Sahara, reaching Lake Chad from Libya and seeing elephants.

There is also believed to be evidence of at least indirect trade with ancient Greece and Rome in what is today Mali, Niger, and Burkina Faso.

Though central states in Rome and China had limited capacity to direct travel and trade across such distances, we shouldn’t underestimate the capacity of local merchants.

You have to imagine merchants who made careers out of trading between Egypt and India, or India and China.
Such chained local trade networks would not have made it easy to move people or soldiers, but did make it possible for certain goods to move across continents.

Scholars also believe ancient Sumer traded with the Indus Valley civilization in Pakistan thousands of years earlier.
The simple boat is believed to be a technology that is up to a million years old, literally older than Homo sapiens.

Thor Heyerdahl proved first-hand in 1947 that a handmade raft can sail you 8000 kilometers across the Pacific Ocean, just like the Polynesians did.

Their ancestors, the Austronesians, of course, somehow managed to settle everywhere from Madagascar to Hawaii over a few thousand years.

There is even genetic and botanical evidence of contact between Polynesians and the Americas!

The Viking explorer Leif Erikson is now known to have discovered and even settled Canada 500 years before Christopher Columbus.

Apparently trade between the Vikings and North America continued even after the Vinland colony was abandoned. Link: https://t.co/JW2tZLObSSsmithsonianmag.com/history/the-vi…


In 1956, a Norse coin was reportedly found as far south as Maine by some amateur archaeologists.

Skepticism notwithstanding, maybe the simplest explanation is that Vikings really were paying Native Americans in Norse coins, who perhaps traded them further south.



Globalization on the order of altering geopolitical priorities of states is new, dating to the discovery of the New World and later.

But globalization on the order of trade, awareness of distant civilizations, and frankly even migration of whole peoples seems very old!
Globalization seems to track not distance that can be traveled with a ship, nor size, but the speed that such distance can be traveled.

Speed was the key advantage of the caravel. The Ancient Greeks built a ship so big it could carry 2000 people, but it was “almost immobile.”
Speed, rather than size or distance, is perhaps what allows a king or company to take an interest in distant lands, since it cuts down timeframes for decision-making and profit.

Otherwise you are relying more on local trade networks for info and way-stops than on ships per se.
Viking longships were also fast like caravels, but had limited cargo capacity. Ships have only gotten faster and bigger since Columbus.

Today’s cargo ships can carry tens of thousands of tons of cargo and easily travel many times faster than medieval or ancient ships.
Even with modern technology, 90% of goods are transported by sea. Sea transport is still cheaper than land transport, and an order of magnitude cheaper than air transport.

Globalization depends on boats. And we have had boats for maybe 1 million years. brief.bismarckanalysis.com/p/egypt-tries-…

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More from @mmjukic

Dec 15
Outside of occasionally winning scheduled elections, it turns out that unleashing freedom of speech and allowing the masses to vent their frustrations with bad governance at maximal intensity has no discernible effect on governance quality, and may even worsen it due to spite.
There is not enough analysis or even awareness of the feedback loops that inform the month-to-month decision-making by the Western governing classes in bureaucracies. They clearly seem to close ranks and deliberately intensify unpopular policies in response to populist pressure.
This is the exact reverse of the "vox populi, vox dei" theory that maybe populist rhetoric and pressure will at least nudge governance in the right direction. There are also bizarre outcomes like the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022 totally deflating pandemic restrictions.
Read 5 tweets
Dec 11
Frenzied, desperate Boomers passing laws to ban young people from free speech, home ownership, or stable employment, while also berating them uhh this is just like WWII, so we are reintroducing military conscription too.

Dropping out, lying flat, giving up—are rational choices.
We are just looking at the process of total institutional breakdown. Dysfunctional institutions keep escalating demands on your time and money; rationally disincentivizing competence or participation; fewer resources available; more escalating demands; rinse and repeat.
All the taxes and demands being placed on young people should instead be placed on the old. It is the old who should see falls in living standards at the expense of the young, not the other way around. The default situation is accurately perceived as illegitimate and vampiric.
Read 7 tweets
Dec 8
It's hard to over-emphasize how utterly unprepared educated progressive Europeans are for even the mildest open debate that challenges their positions. They are basically dodos living in a completely closed intellectual hugbox represented by publicly-funded state TV.
These people have literally never, not once in their lives, encountered genuine intellectual opposition to any of their views, even second-hand. Every instance of "debate" in their lives, from university to TV, is just a carefully coordinated ritual with a predetermined outcome.
At least American progressives have had to contend with Fox News, the College Republicans, and President Donald Trump, which means they at least need to go through the motions of coming up with counter-arguments. *None* of this exists for Euro progs.
Read 14 tweets
Nov 21
These sanctions were applied by OFAC, which is just part of the Executive Branch. I wonder if the Trump administration will enforce similar sanctions against officials in the UK, Germany, Ireland, and other U.S. allies violently suppressing the free speech of their citizens.
Every day I am surprised anew with just how much power the U.S. can and does exert over Europe! Now I find out the U.S. government can just debank and cancel any random person in Europe it wants!
The President cannot do anything about bad judges in America, who require 2/3rds of the U.S. Senate to vote to remove them, but paradoxically he can debank and cancel any judge, politician, bureaucrat, or activist in Europe that he pleases! Very interesting!
Read 4 tweets
Nov 9
You have to admit that the way Boomer elites constantly counter every Millennial demand for benefits with an even bigger offer for loans (indebting them to Boomers), while loudly framing it as a favor the whole time, is just plain hilarious in this dark, Dostoyevskyan way.
There is this whole subtext of Boomers refusing to just pass down assets to their children or grandchildren but instead like malfunctioning robots constantly try to invent elaborate schemes where they have to work for them or go into debt to them to get their own inheritance.
"Please, I can't afford a house."

"What if instead of helping you pay for a house, I loan you the money for a house?"

"Great idea. Like a zero-interest loan, right? Right?"
Read 5 tweets
Nov 6
A massive, gaping intellectual blind spot I have noticed is social-class politics and hostility *within* the Western world and Western populations. For example, it's obvious Western elites see the Western masses as a subhuman race, but I rarely see anyone dig deeper into this.
We just totally lack good sociology on class relations in Western populations. Even bringing up "class" sounds dated and Marxist, occasionally someone points out how complicated and extreme the British class system can be... but it pretty much stops there.
We have a vague idea that in, say, India, there is extreme assortative mating, cultural differences, etc. with regards to castes, and that "higher" castes have a hierarchical relationship with "lower" castes. Why wouldn't these phenomena exist in our societies too?
Read 6 tweets

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