Marko Jukic Profile picture
Jul 5, 2023 17 tweets 8 min read Read on X
Globalization is probably as old as civilization.

Most underrated historical trend not because it rose so high recently, but because it rose from such a high base.

Claims of Ancient Roman jewelry excavated as far away as Japan and Tanzania.

A 🧵 on ancient globalization:



It is easy to notice a recurring pattern of surprisingly distant trade in historical accounts.

Pliny the Elder and Seneca are both recorded complaining about how much money was being spent on Indian spices and Chinese silk. Roman glassware has been found in China.

Roman trade with India was definitely more developed than with China, which seems to have been only indirect.

Alexander the Great invaded India in 327 BC and left behind a Greek kingdom in Afghanistan and central Asia, after all, so India was known to the Mediterranean world.
The "Periplus of the Erythraean Sea" is a 1st century AD Greco-Roman manuscript that describes known trade routes in the Indian Ocean, from the author’s own experience.

It shows the Horn of Africa and India were trade partners, and awareness of China too. But also…
It describes a route that goes south along the coast of East Africa in “Azania,” terminating in the southernmost trading post of Rhapta, likely in modern-day Tanzania.

Tantalizingly, the author seems to know that, if you keep going, you eventually reach the Atlantic Ocean!
The Romans apparently also made expeditions to West Africa across the Sahara, reaching Lake Chad from Libya and seeing elephants.

There is also believed to be evidence of at least indirect trade with ancient Greece and Rome in what is today Mali, Niger, and Burkina Faso.

Though central states in Rome and China had limited capacity to direct travel and trade across such distances, we shouldn’t underestimate the capacity of local merchants.

You have to imagine merchants who made careers out of trading between Egypt and India, or India and China.
Such chained local trade networks would not have made it easy to move people or soldiers, but did make it possible for certain goods to move across continents.

Scholars also believe ancient Sumer traded with the Indus Valley civilization in Pakistan thousands of years earlier.
The simple boat is believed to be a technology that is up to a million years old, literally older than Homo sapiens.

Thor Heyerdahl proved first-hand in 1947 that a handmade raft can sail you 8000 kilometers across the Pacific Ocean, just like the Polynesians did.

Their ancestors, the Austronesians, of course, somehow managed to settle everywhere from Madagascar to Hawaii over a few thousand years.

There is even genetic and botanical evidence of contact between Polynesians and the Americas!

The Viking explorer Leif Erikson is now known to have discovered and even settled Canada 500 years before Christopher Columbus.

Apparently trade between the Vikings and North America continued even after the Vinland colony was abandoned. Link: https://t.co/JW2tZLObSSsmithsonianmag.com/history/the-vi…


In 1956, a Norse coin was reportedly found as far south as Maine by some amateur archaeologists.

Skepticism notwithstanding, maybe the simplest explanation is that Vikings really were paying Native Americans in Norse coins, who perhaps traded them further south.



Globalization on the order of altering geopolitical priorities of states is new, dating to the discovery of the New World and later.

But globalization on the order of trade, awareness of distant civilizations, and frankly even migration of whole peoples seems very old!
Globalization seems to track not distance that can be traveled with a ship, nor size, but the speed that such distance can be traveled.

Speed was the key advantage of the caravel. The Ancient Greeks built a ship so big it could carry 2000 people, but it was “almost immobile.”
Speed, rather than size or distance, is perhaps what allows a king or company to take an interest in distant lands, since it cuts down timeframes for decision-making and profit.

Otherwise you are relying more on local trade networks for info and way-stops than on ships per se.
Viking longships were also fast like caravels, but had limited cargo capacity. Ships have only gotten faster and bigger since Columbus.

Today’s cargo ships can carry tens of thousands of tons of cargo and easily travel many times faster than medieval or ancient ships.
Even with modern technology, 90% of goods are transported by sea. Sea transport is still cheaper than land transport, and an order of magnitude cheaper than air transport.

Globalization depends on boats. And we have had boats for maybe 1 million years. brief.bismarckanalysis.com/p/egypt-tries-…

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More from @mmjukic

Sep 18
The story, apparently: after disastrous, tyrannical pandemic policies including mass theft via hyperinflation, "sensible moderate pro-market" economists, bankers, and conservative politicians impoverished you further by suppressing wages with migrant labor. Did I get that right?
If true it's a textbook case of plain catastrophically bad governance. Bungling a practical problem (pandemic response), reacting by printing money and causing huge inflation, then making the situation worse by suppressing the wages you yourself inflated, impoverishing workers.
"Pro-market" economists and politicians seem to have a very hard time accepting the outcome of the free market, when the market wants higher wages. Somehow they rationalize that mass-importing migrant labor at a crazy pace doesn't qualify as anti-market government intervention!
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Sep 17
There is nothing stopping Boomers from looting the treasury to 1000% debt-to-GDP. There is nothing stopping fertility rates going to 0.1 kids per woman. There is nothing stopping developed countries from mass-importing more immigrants until natives are 30% of the population.
"Surely someone will do something!" Okay, but what if they don't? What then? We are all going to live to see the consequences for the rest of our lifetimes. What does the world actually look like as this plays out?
China is more than willing to spot us $10-$100 trillion in order to let us completely destroy our societies with debt, entitlement spending, overregulation, de-development, and mass immigration. More predictable victory that way than fighting WW3!
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Sep 5
The really uncomfortable part is that this applies not just to the U.S. population, but the populations of at least a billion people outside the U.S. How deep, really, are the "cultural differences" among human beings integrated into one globalized industrial civilization?
I've never heard anyone argue that the entire globe ought to be considered a single civilization. Yet why not? When you look at economic, elite, intellectual, and cultural flows, we are far more closely integrated than Ancient Rome and Ancient China.
I am pretty sure the economic and institutional processes to manufacture most technologically advanced goods nowadays touch most if not literally all continents and definitely depend on multiple rival states/blocs, obviously China. What does this imply for "civilization"?
Read 7 tweets
Sep 2
The real China bull case even China hawks/watchers don't appreciate yet is pretty simple: by default we should expect China to grossly surpass all previous attempts at industrial growth, because it has way more people, of greater discipline and math aptitude, at greater density.
The NATO+ bloc also has around 1-2 billion people, but almost maximally geographically dispersed compared to China with way more internal barriers to industrial growth. China can perhaps fundamentally get more efficient economies of scale, better concentration of talent, etc.
This reframes the U.S.-led world's task as not of passively containing China or rekindling a past industrial glory, but of implementing urgent, revolutionary reforms to remain competitive with a rival with on paper already superior fundamentals, to do things never done before.
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I am allergic to "talent is lacking" arguments because most people are just blissfully unaware of how ridiculously, comically, unbelievably over-the-top generous progressive philanthropy is. They literally give away millions, *billions* of dollars with effectively no oversight. Image
Not only that but there is no shortage of progressive donors doing this. Forget about USAID—you scratch a random corporation anywhere in the world, say Ikea, and you discover that it is for some reason disbursing, also, billions of dollars to progressive causes indiscriminately. Image
Even apolitical, centrist, or even mildly right-coded donors will occasionally, for inexplicable reasons, dump a cool *$100 million* on *checks notes* Van Jones. No comparison here. Progressive philanthropy is a tsunami, everything else combined is a lukewarm glass of water. Image
Read 22 tweets
Aug 18
If you are 20-30 today, you are likely to remain alive and in relatively good cognitive and physical shape to influence society until your 80s, meaning you have about 50-60 years to witness and influence epochal, historic shifts. A huge amount of time that must be used wisely!
People often think to themselves how small and hopeless their individual efforts to change society are. Apocalyptically negative changes seem just years away. In the short run, sure. Yet 50-60 years is a lot of time to make a huge impact on the future direction of society.
Someone born in Germany in 1900 could have lived through and retained clear memories of Imperial Germany, Weimar Germany, Nazi Germany, Communist East Germany, and Modern Democratic Germany. Five total societal revolutions in one lifetime.
Read 14 tweets

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