Most underrated historical trend not because it rose so high recently, but because it rose from such a high base.
Claims of Ancient Roman jewelry excavated as far away as Japan and Tanzania.
A 🧵 on ancient globalization:
It is easy to notice a recurring pattern of surprisingly distant trade in historical accounts.
Pliny the Elder and Seneca are both recorded complaining about how much money was being spent on Indian spices and Chinese silk. Roman glassware has been found in China.
Roman trade with India was definitely more developed than with China, which seems to have been only indirect.
Alexander the Great invaded India in 327 BC and left behind a Greek kingdom in Afghanistan and central Asia, after all, so India was known to the Mediterranean world.
The "Periplus of the Erythraean Sea" is a 1st century AD Greco-Roman manuscript that describes known trade routes in the Indian Ocean, from the author’s own experience.
It shows the Horn of Africa and India were trade partners, and awareness of China too. But also…
It describes a route that goes south along the coast of East Africa in “Azania,” terminating in the southernmost trading post of Rhapta, likely in modern-day Tanzania.
Tantalizingly, the author seems to know that, if you keep going, you eventually reach the Atlantic Ocean!
The Romans apparently also made expeditions to West Africa across the Sahara, reaching Lake Chad from Libya and seeing elephants.
There is also believed to be evidence of at least indirect trade with ancient Greece and Rome in what is today Mali, Niger, and Burkina Faso.
Though central states in Rome and China had limited capacity to direct travel and trade across such distances, we shouldn’t underestimate the capacity of local merchants.
You have to imagine merchants who made careers out of trading between Egypt and India, or India and China.
Such chained local trade networks would not have made it easy to move people or soldiers, but did make it possible for certain goods to move across continents.
Scholars also believe ancient Sumer traded with the Indus Valley civilization in Pakistan thousands of years earlier.
The simple boat is believed to be a technology that is up to a million years old, literally older than Homo sapiens.
Thor Heyerdahl proved first-hand in 1947 that a handmade raft can sail you 8000 kilometers across the Pacific Ocean, just like the Polynesians did.
Their ancestors, the Austronesians, of course, somehow managed to settle everywhere from Madagascar to Hawaii over a few thousand years.
There is even genetic and botanical evidence of contact between Polynesians and the Americas!
The Viking explorer Leif Erikson is now known to have discovered and even settled Canada 500 years before Christopher Columbus.
Apparently trade between the Vikings and North America continued even after the Vinland colony was abandoned. Link: https://t.co/JW2tZLObSSsmithsonianmag.com/history/the-vi…
In 1956, a Norse coin was reportedly found as far south as Maine by some amateur archaeologists.
Skepticism notwithstanding, maybe the simplest explanation is that Vikings really were paying Native Americans in Norse coins, who perhaps traded them further south.
Globalization on the order of altering geopolitical priorities of states is new, dating to the discovery of the New World and later.
But globalization on the order of trade, awareness of distant civilizations, and frankly even migration of whole peoples seems very old!
Globalization seems to track not distance that can be traveled with a ship, nor size, but the speed that such distance can be traveled.
Speed was the key advantage of the caravel. The Ancient Greeks built a ship so big it could carry 2000 people, but it was “almost immobile.”
Speed, rather than size or distance, is perhaps what allows a king or company to take an interest in distant lands, since it cuts down timeframes for decision-making and profit.
Otherwise you are relying more on local trade networks for info and way-stops than on ships per se.
Viking longships were also fast like caravels, but had limited cargo capacity. Ships have only gotten faster and bigger since Columbus.
Today’s cargo ships can carry tens of thousands of tons of cargo and easily travel many times faster than medieval or ancient ships.
Even with modern technology, 90% of goods are transported by sea. Sea transport is still cheaper than land transport, and an order of magnitude cheaper than air transport.
The story of the last century is basically the United States defeating its fellow great powers, in order: Austria-Hungary (1918), Turkey (1918), Germany (1945), Italy (1945), Japan (1945), the United Kingdom (1956), France (1969), and Russia (1991).
France was defeated in 1941, but then Charles de Gaulle pulled off a second wind that saw final defeat delayed a few more decades. Since 1999, Putin has been doing the exact same thing in the exact same situation.
In 1989, NATO (658m) was 1.6x the population of the Soviet Union and Warsaw Pact (400m). Today it's 6.2x the size, 973m to 155m for Russia and Belarus. The fall of the USSR was basically decolonization for Russia, but absorption into U.S. orbit was bungled and reversed.
Boomers allowed affirmative action and diversity politics to take over society. But note that there was never a mass firing of 20-30% of Boomers to make room for diverse hires or whatever. They just grandfathered themselves in then betrayed the next generation with it, as usual.
The 2010s woke cancellation wave was in substantial part an attempt by Millennials to remedy this Boomer hypocrisy and grab some of the spoils for themselves. But of course equally if not more unfair, too much collateral damage, and far too unfocused to really work.
The young are in general completely asleep to how craven, unjust, and illegitimate their elders' rule is and has been. The Boomers will all be dead in twenty years, which will be the greatest opportunity for a paradigm shift in societal governance. It must not be squandered.
If a tech CEO revealed he could manufacture self-replicating fully autonomous universally adaptable humaniform AGIs that stayed in good working condition for ~60 years for $450k each, he would be hailed as a hero and the U.S. government would order $10 trillion worth of them.
At $450k per child, we could double the U.S. birth rate and reach well above replacement fertility for the price of just $1.6 trillion. That is just 23% of annual federal spending and less than Social Security + Medicare. It's literally a steal!
Boomers just hate children and believe as a matter of selfish dogmatic faith they should not only cost $0 and raise themselves, but actually pay Boomers for the privilege of being born. There is no other explanation for this plain economic irrationality.
From 2009-2011, a trivial amount of investment in Bitcoin would have turned any millionaire into a megabillionaire by now, and any billionaire into a literal trillionaire. Yet none did. This shows even Peter Thiel is understating the case about groupthink/cowardice in business.
The fact that as far as we can tell every single professional and major investor in Silicon Valley and Wall Street completely missed by far the best investment opportunity of the last fifteen years—one which wasn't even that obscure—is an indictment of "investing" and "finance."
If there were people out there who really knew how to make money through investing, we should have multiple literal trillionaires. Yet we do not. In fact most of the world's wealthiest people are founders who build valuable companies, not people who bet on companies or assets.
There are only four kinds of politics we have: Boomer Leftism (respectable), Boomer Rightism (populism), Millennial Leftism (Zohran), and Millennial Rightism (Bukele). In 20 years the Boomers and their politics will have died off, and Millennial Leftism won't make sense anymore.
Millennial Leftism only makes sense in the context of disenfranchised youth building a battering-ram coalition to loot a little something from the Boomers in the here and now. When the Boomers are dead and gone, it won't make sense anymore. Millennial dictators are inevitable.
Boomer Leftism is unrestrained looting for the benefit of Boomers. Boomer Rightism is slightly restrained looting for the benefit of Boomers. Millennial Leftism is unrestrained looting for the benefit of Millennials. Only Millennial Rightism promises to end the looting.
Rule by engineers has notably produced much better results than rule by scientists. All-powerful engineers get you Sputnik and the Moon landing. All-powerful scientists get you esoteric boondoggles (CERN) and funding the worst ideas ever thought of (COVID-19/gain of function).
"Science and engineering" get treated like one thing, but are very different temperamentally and philosophically. The "engineer" takes military funding to solve a practical problem. The "scientist" commits treason to pass military secrets to foreign countries on principle.
To be fair, once CERN finally succeeds at its real goal of tearing the fabric of reality to open a portal to the hell dimension depicted in the hit film Event Horizon, it will also pass into the "worst ideas ever thought of" category, but scientists will be really proud.