Marko Jukic Profile picture
Jul 5, 2023 17 tweets 8 min read Read on X
Globalization is probably as old as civilization.

Most underrated historical trend not because it rose so high recently, but because it rose from such a high base.

Claims of Ancient Roman jewelry excavated as far away as Japan and Tanzania.

A 🧵 on ancient globalization:



It is easy to notice a recurring pattern of surprisingly distant trade in historical accounts.

Pliny the Elder and Seneca are both recorded complaining about how much money was being spent on Indian spices and Chinese silk. Roman glassware has been found in China.

Roman trade with India was definitely more developed than with China, which seems to have been only indirect.

Alexander the Great invaded India in 327 BC and left behind a Greek kingdom in Afghanistan and central Asia, after all, so India was known to the Mediterranean world.
The "Periplus of the Erythraean Sea" is a 1st century AD Greco-Roman manuscript that describes known trade routes in the Indian Ocean, from the author’s own experience.

It shows the Horn of Africa and India were trade partners, and awareness of China too. But also…
It describes a route that goes south along the coast of East Africa in “Azania,” terminating in the southernmost trading post of Rhapta, likely in modern-day Tanzania.

Tantalizingly, the author seems to know that, if you keep going, you eventually reach the Atlantic Ocean!
The Romans apparently also made expeditions to West Africa across the Sahara, reaching Lake Chad from Libya and seeing elephants.

There is also believed to be evidence of at least indirect trade with ancient Greece and Rome in what is today Mali, Niger, and Burkina Faso.

Though central states in Rome and China had limited capacity to direct travel and trade across such distances, we shouldn’t underestimate the capacity of local merchants.

You have to imagine merchants who made careers out of trading between Egypt and India, or India and China.
Such chained local trade networks would not have made it easy to move people or soldiers, but did make it possible for certain goods to move across continents.

Scholars also believe ancient Sumer traded with the Indus Valley civilization in Pakistan thousands of years earlier.
The simple boat is believed to be a technology that is up to a million years old, literally older than Homo sapiens.

Thor Heyerdahl proved first-hand in 1947 that a handmade raft can sail you 8000 kilometers across the Pacific Ocean, just like the Polynesians did.

Their ancestors, the Austronesians, of course, somehow managed to settle everywhere from Madagascar to Hawaii over a few thousand years.

There is even genetic and botanical evidence of contact between Polynesians and the Americas!

The Viking explorer Leif Erikson is now known to have discovered and even settled Canada 500 years before Christopher Columbus.

Apparently trade between the Vikings and North America continued even after the Vinland colony was abandoned. Link: https://t.co/JW2tZLObSSsmithsonianmag.com/history/the-vi…


In 1956, a Norse coin was reportedly found as far south as Maine by some amateur archaeologists.

Skepticism notwithstanding, maybe the simplest explanation is that Vikings really were paying Native Americans in Norse coins, who perhaps traded them further south.



Globalization on the order of altering geopolitical priorities of states is new, dating to the discovery of the New World and later.

But globalization on the order of trade, awareness of distant civilizations, and frankly even migration of whole peoples seems very old!
Globalization seems to track not distance that can be traveled with a ship, nor size, but the speed that such distance can be traveled.

Speed was the key advantage of the caravel. The Ancient Greeks built a ship so big it could carry 2000 people, but it was “almost immobile.”
Speed, rather than size or distance, is perhaps what allows a king or company to take an interest in distant lands, since it cuts down timeframes for decision-making and profit.

Otherwise you are relying more on local trade networks for info and way-stops than on ships per se.
Viking longships were also fast like caravels, but had limited cargo capacity. Ships have only gotten faster and bigger since Columbus.

Today’s cargo ships can carry tens of thousands of tons of cargo and easily travel many times faster than medieval or ancient ships.
Even with modern technology, 90% of goods are transported by sea. Sea transport is still cheaper than land transport, and an order of magnitude cheaper than air transport.

Globalization depends on boats. And we have had boats for maybe 1 million years. brief.bismarckanalysis.com/p/egypt-tries-…

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More from @mmjukic

Dec 7
There is currently no ideology that will justify a government to award free 7-seater luxury Chinese electric SUVs to young families with 3+ children.

At best, a small grant to buy a dirty old used minivan. Hardly aspirational, then they wonder why fertility incentives fail. Image
Image
Things governments are willing to use as fertility incentives: less income tax (but not social security tax), used cars nobody wants, loans with good rate for you my friend to build houses in rural areas, discounts on vaccines...

Things they are not: anything high-status
There is not a government in the world that has given young people of childbearing age the power to decide a program of fertility incentives.

All such programs are decided by Boomers who pretty much hate young people and think they should be grateful slaves to the elderly.
Read 11 tweets
Dec 5
There is no plan. There is a gaping vacuum of vision, strategy, forward-looking ideology, and leadership at the helms of developed democracies, with the result that we are squandering the capabilities afforded by industrial society and on a path to collapse our own civilization.
The idea that everything is going well or fine because [insert speculative technology here] will fix it is actually an indictment of how poorly we are running our civilization. It's easier to imagine wacky deus ex machine tech than necessary reform.
There is a pervasive and desperate need to believe in the imminent magical problem-solving power of [insert speculative technology here] because we need to believe something or someone is going to bail us out.
Read 5 tweets
Nov 27
Elon's secret is that he just picks the institutional and organizational low-hanging fruit that everyone else is too blind or apathetic to pick. Taking a personal org census of 5 minutes per employee or asking what parts cost to build from first principles—everyone can do this.
There isn't alien superintelligence or complex mathematical modelling behind all this. These are things that when you hear them you should go "d'oh, duh" and immediately implement the same principle in your own work and organization.
The problem is that most people in most organizations actually just don't care enough about their organizations' goals to bother at all. And those who do are disempowered, almost as a rule.

Functional institutions are the exception.
Read 23 tweets
Nov 22
I cannot think of a single advantage to living in Western Europe over Eastern Europe or a single amenity available in Western Europe that isn't available in Eastern Europe at the same or lower price as of 2024. Not one.

In 2024 the Balkans are nicer than Western Europe.
Communism is ancient history now whether you like it or not. Eastern Europe has rapidly caught up to a stagnant and bureaucratized Western Europe and many parts are on the cusp of surpassing it. But nobody has integrated this into their worldview yet.
This was not true in the 1990s. In the 90s, you could say Eastern Europe was poorer, had less amenities, worse infrastructure, and was more unsafe.

But now it is safer and there isn't a noticeable difference in the amenities or infrastructure, and increasingly pay too.
Read 13 tweets
Nov 22
Counterpoint: Gen Z is accurately naming the salary needed to be fashionably well-off in 2024 after inflation of both money and expectations, while earlier generations are just naming the same number they remember from their youth, which is now outdated.
Corollary: what this chart actually shows it that Millennials' economic expectations of self and others took a major blow.
If I'm reading this correctly, the cost of renting in NYC has gone up about 7x since 1980, and NYC remains the fashionable city to aspire to be financially successful in, so it is impossible that the salary to be financially successful hasn't also increased 7x in the last 44y. Image
Read 13 tweets
Nov 19
Video calls force you to stare at a person's face, close up and without interruption, which is actually just not at all how conversations in person occur. Audio/phone calls are much closer to natural conversation in person, where you speak and listen while mostly looking away.
When was the last time you had an hour-long conversation with someone in person where you both stood one foot apart and talked while staring into each other's faces and maintaining eye contact the whole time? Literally never happens.
cc @PaulSkallas
Read 8 tweets

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