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Marko Jukic Profile picture
Marko Jukic
@mmjukic
Finding the golden path to interstellar civilization. Senior Analyst @bismarckanlys.
11 subscribers
Sep 17 • 6 tweets • 2 min read
There is nothing stopping Boomers from looting the treasury to 1000% debt-to-GDP. There is nothing stopping fertility rates going to 0.1 kids per woman. There is nothing stopping developed countries from mass-importing more immigrants until natives are 30% of the population. "Surely someone will do something!" Okay, but what if they don't? What then? We are all going to live to see the consequences for the rest of our lifetimes. What does the world actually look like as this plays out?
Sep 5 • 7 tweets • 2 min read
The really uncomfortable part is that this applies not just to the U.S. population, but the populations of at least a billion people outside the U.S. How deep, really, are the "cultural differences" among human beings integrated into one globalized industrial civilization? I've never heard anyone argue that the entire globe ought to be considered a single civilization. Yet why not? When you look at economic, elite, intellectual, and cultural flows, we are far more closely integrated than Ancient Rome and Ancient China.
Sep 2 • 6 tweets • 1 min read
The real China bull case even China hawks/watchers don't appreciate yet is pretty simple: by default we should expect China to grossly surpass all previous attempts at industrial growth, because it has way more people, of greater discipline and math aptitude, at greater density. The NATO+ bloc also has around 1-2 billion people, but almost maximally geographically dispersed compared to China with way more internal barriers to industrial growth. China can perhaps fundamentally get more efficient economies of scale, better concentration of talent, etc.
Aug 19 • 22 tweets • 5 min read
I am allergic to "talent is lacking" arguments because most people are just blissfully unaware of how ridiculously, comically, unbelievably over-the-top generous progressive philanthropy is. They literally give away millions, *billions* of dollars with effectively no oversight. Image Not only that but there is no shortage of progressive donors doing this. Forget about USAID—you scratch a random corporation anywhere in the world, say Ikea, and you discover that it is for some reason disbursing, also, billions of dollars to progressive causes indiscriminately. Image
Aug 18 • 14 tweets • 4 min read
If you are 20-30 today, you are likely to remain alive and in relatively good cognitive and physical shape to influence society until your 80s, meaning you have about 50-60 years to witness and influence epochal, historic shifts. A huge amount of time that must be used wisely! People often think to themselves how small and hopeless their individual efforts to change society are. Apocalyptically negative changes seem just years away. In the short run, sure. Yet 50-60 years is a lot of time to make a huge impact on the future direction of society.
Jul 23 • 11 tweets • 2 min read
Bureaucracies staffed by middle-aged and elderly petty authoritarian socialist women import criminal migrants then let them loose because this is the closest approximation to organized physical violence they can sustain against their real enemies—taxpayers who could defund them. If the same bureaucracies were staffed by young men, as authoritarian and socialist regimes were in the past, they would not need this convoluted scheme and could just raise irregular organized paramilitaries themselves. But aging women are literally incapable of this.
Jul 15 • 7 tweets • 2 min read
The story of the last century is basically the United States defeating its fellow great powers, in order: Austria-Hungary (1918), Turkey (1918), Germany (1945), Italy (1945), Japan (1945), the United Kingdom (1956), France (1969), and Russia (1991). France was defeated in 1941, but then Charles de Gaulle pulled off a second wind that saw final defeat delayed a few more decades. Since 1999, Putin has been doing the exact same thing in the exact same situation.
Jul 13 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
Boomers allowed affirmative action and diversity politics to take over society. But note that there was never a mass firing of 20-30% of Boomers to make room for diverse hires or whatever. They just grandfathered themselves in then betrayed the next generation with it, as usual. The 2010s woke cancellation wave was in substantial part an attempt by Millennials to remedy this Boomer hypocrisy and grab some of the spoils for themselves. But of course equally if not more unfair, too much collateral damage, and far too unfocused to really work.
Jul 13 • 8 tweets • 2 min read
If a tech CEO revealed he could manufacture self-replicating fully autonomous universally adaptable humaniform AGIs that stayed in good working condition for ~60 years for $450k each, he would be hailed as a hero and the U.S. government would order $10 trillion worth of them. At $450k per child, we could double the U.S. birth rate and reach well above replacement fertility for the price of just $1.6 trillion. That is just 23% of annual federal spending and less than Social Security + Medicare. It's literally a steal!
Jul 1 • 7 tweets • 2 min read
From 2009-2011, a trivial amount of investment in Bitcoin would have turned any millionaire into a megabillionaire by now, and any billionaire into a literal trillionaire. Yet none did. This shows even Peter Thiel is understating the case about groupthink/cowardice in business. The fact that as far as we can tell every single professional and major investor in Silicon Valley and Wall Street completely missed by far the best investment opportunity of the last fifteen years—one which wasn't even that obscure—is an indictment of "investing" and "finance."
Jun 29 • 6 tweets • 1 min read
There are only four kinds of politics we have: Boomer Leftism (respectable), Boomer Rightism (populism), Millennial Leftism (Zohran), and Millennial Rightism (Bukele). In 20 years the Boomers and their politics will have died off, and Millennial Leftism won't make sense anymore. Millennial Leftism only makes sense in the context of disenfranchised youth building a battering-ram coalition to loot a little something from the Boomers in the here and now. When the Boomers are dead and gone, it won't make sense anymore. Millennial dictators are inevitable.
Jun 24 • 6 tweets • 1 min read
Rule by engineers has notably produced much better results than rule by scientists. All-powerful engineers get you Sputnik and the Moon landing. All-powerful scientists get you esoteric boondoggles (CERN) and funding the worst ideas ever thought of (COVID-19/gain of function). "Science and engineering" get treated like one thing, but are very different temperamentally and philosophically. The "engineer" takes military funding to solve a practical problem. The "scientist" commits treason to pass military secrets to foreign countries on principle.
Jun 8 • 7 tweets • 2 min read
The tragic failure of natalist marketing is that nobody without kids knows that babies are a huge source of comedy and entertainment, not just a drag on an entertaining life. They are little slapstick comedians, elves, non-stop humor from baby antics, and do not mind adventure. We are in a situation where people are literally going around doing chores all day for three cats and five dogs, spending six hours a day scrolling TikTok or vegetating to podcasts and YouTube videos, and deluded into thinking kids are too much time, work, and not enough fun.
Jun 7 • 5 tweets • 1 min read
Interesting thought to consider superficially "pro-capitalism" ideologues as Reverse-Marxism. They claim legitimacy by appealing to the purity and fairness of free market logic, but in practice support every unfair and bad government intervention if it's "good for business." Reverse-Marxism is arguably the economic ideology of the developed world and why it is being rapidly destroyed. We even have our own economic commissars, "economists," whose job is to explain why unfair and bad government interventions are akshually "good for the economy."
Jun 6 • 18 tweets • 5 min read
Still waiting for any investigative journalism outlet to write the piece explaining how and why every single country in Eastern Europe and Japan overnight decided to begin mass-importing low-wage laborers from the Indian subcontinent and Southeast Asia sometime in 2022-23. As far as I can tell the Potato-Shaped Boomers visited Dubai and discovered that the only thing they love more than grandstanding about immigration and nationalism at home is undercutting wages and getting a new roof installed for even cheaper than before.
Jun 3 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
The best tourists are Germans: despite their tastelessness, they are Olympic cheapskates interested only in nudism and ice cream. The worst by far are Americans whose infinite demand for "fusion tacos" and other atrocities—plus tip—turn idylls into circuses of scams and garbage. When Americans with too much money and negative taste begin arriving in droves, you can kiss any sincere and authentic atmosphere or establishment goodbye. What's the point? They'll pay ten times more for garbage from the freezer that costs ten times less—and tip you too!
May 27 • 5 tweets • 3 min read
It appears that since 2024, Putin has pursued a bold new strategy for Russian government reform: simply find the most handsome and least potato-shaped Russians around, and then appoint them to high positions to replace the positions filled by the most potato-like officials. Image
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Image Attention all Eastern European leaders: DO NOT select your high officials from "Alexander Lukashenko's eldest son" type of Slavic man. DO select your high officials from "Alexander Lukashenko's youngest son" type of Slavic man.
May 26 • 7 tweets • 2 min read
Is 95% of modern awe and prestige of the medical profession just stolen valor from late 19th century sewage and sanitation engineers who finally built cities with streets that weren't literally swimming in feces? Mid-19th century medicine was so bad that they not only dismissed the idea of washing their hands but mocked the guy who suggested it to the point he was committed to and beaten to death in a mental asylum. To be fair, I guess he was technically a doctor too! Image
May 15 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
Nothing puzzling about it. Communism fell because of exhaustion and institutional annexation to the U.S. bloc, not revolution. Therefore elite turnover was partial at best and communist elites and institutions are now "democratic" elites and institutions in many countries still. Many even found it natural and relaxing to simply switch from taking orders from impersonal institutions in Moscow to taking cues from impersonal institutions in Washington, and joyfully imposing both on their populations, whom they view as primitive cavemen that need uplifting.
May 14 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
"Immigration," "debt," and "tourism" should be curse words with the same status as "corruption." All three are fundamentally ways for failing and incompetent governments to sell out the country. The cure for the disease has a wholly different name: industry. Oh, and "real estate." Let's not forget that one.
May 1 • 10 tweets • 2 min read
Venture capital, DARPA, and progressive philanthropy all work for the same reason—taking the spray-and-pray approach is correct when expected results are highly unpredictable or unmeasurable. Otherwise you get analysis paralysis or doing the wrong thing with great regimentation. The cost of all the waste is ultimately made up for by the outliers that produce incredible results. But you can't find those outliers without going through the waste and you can't identify them ahead of time.