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Marko Jukic Profile picture
Marko Jukic
@mmjukic
Finding the golden path to interstellar civilization. Senior Analyst @bismarckanlys.
11 subscribers
Oct 29 • 5 tweets • 1 min read
The crisis of the last 500 years is basically a crisis of humanism. Wherever we can we keep denigrating, delegitimizing, constraining, and even destroying open and personalized human action, thought, and decision-making, in favor of opaque, manipulated, broken processes. There is a straight line between the petty committees that stifle creativity and growth in ordinary professional and private life, and the expansive cosmological visions held by social and cultural elites that deny or delegitimize not just human agency but the human race itself.
Oct 29 • 10 tweets • 2 min read
When my grandkids ask me why we didn't do anything to prevent the ignominious collapse of modern civilization, I guess I will have to say that everyone knew exactly what was wrong, we had just already created a society where doing anything but raging online was impossible. We have created a cage so perfect that the brightest minds of our era think it is easier to create artificial superhuman minds with silicon and software than reform governments and institutions, which when you take a step back is obviously a totally insane position to hold.
Oct 23 • 7 tweets • 2 min read
There are enough Indians for India to export 700 million people total to North America and Europe over the coming decades, become around 50% of the population on both continents, and still remain the world's most populous country with over 1 billion people. Image This isn't even counting Pakistan and Bangladesh. Or the Philippines, Indonesia... the calculus for Western elites is very simple. The harder pension schemes, real estate markets, and GDP break down, the more immigrants we will import.
Oct 21 • 14 tweets • 5 min read
Objectively I am mega-bearish on America, Europe, and China equally. I currently do not see any of them reversing the demographic and thus permanent decline of techno-industrial civilization, which will likely play out by 2100. All other discussion is just details until then. So far every single disagreement with this post relies on multiple speculative science-fiction outcomes to pan out. While I'm not ruling it out entirely, if you can't see that this should not be taken as the default outcome, I don't know what to tell you.
Oct 7 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
I hope everyone under the age of 40 realizes that they are never going to see a single cent of the pensions they pay 10-20% of their income for in taxes. Yes, you are very clever, applying cold hard facts and logic to turns of phrase. How about for $100k? At what number do you get uncomfortable and how far away is it from the lifetime number we expect a person to collect? Cards on the table buddy!
Sep 22 • 9 tweets • 2 min read
As bad as things get, we know we are nowhere close to the bottom so long as there isn't mass emigration of Western citizens to safe foreign countries. This will likely happen, so we have a ways to go. Imagine Western immigrant communities in Dubai, China, Albania, El Salvador... The problem with most imaginable destinations is that they remain targeted at the high-net-worth demographic (Monaco, Dubai, Singapore). The first developing country to make itself a safe, attractive destination for middle-class Westerners is going to boom economically.
Sep 18 • 10 tweets • 2 min read
The story, apparently: after disastrous, tyrannical pandemic policies including mass theft via hyperinflation, "sensible moderate pro-market" economists, bankers, and conservative politicians impoverished you further by suppressing wages with migrant labor. Did I get that right? If true it's a textbook case of plain catastrophically bad governance. Bungling a practical problem (pandemic response), reacting by printing money and causing huge inflation, then making the situation worse by suppressing the wages you yourself inflated, impoverishing workers.
Sep 17 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
I still haven't read a single investigative journalism deep-dive on why every country in the Anglosphere, Eastern Europe, and Japan all simultaneously pulled the "More Immigration" lever so hard it apparently snapped off right around late 2021. Anons seem to be slowly piecing together what no investigative journalist has bothered to do. The story interestingly seems to be that this was driven by economists and central bankers rather than left-wing political activists or politicians.
Sep 17 • 6 tweets • 2 min read
There is nothing stopping Boomers from looting the treasury to 1000% debt-to-GDP. There is nothing stopping fertility rates going to 0.1 kids per woman. There is nothing stopping developed countries from mass-importing more immigrants until natives are 30% of the population. "Surely someone will do something!" Okay, but what if they don't? What then? We are all going to live to see the consequences for the rest of our lifetimes. What does the world actually look like as this plays out?
Sep 5 • 7 tweets • 2 min read
The really uncomfortable part is that this applies not just to the U.S. population, but the populations of at least a billion people outside the U.S. How deep, really, are the "cultural differences" among human beings integrated into one globalized industrial civilization? I've never heard anyone argue that the entire globe ought to be considered a single civilization. Yet why not? When you look at economic, elite, intellectual, and cultural flows, we are far more closely integrated than Ancient Rome and Ancient China.
Sep 2 • 6 tweets • 1 min read
The real China bull case even China hawks/watchers don't appreciate yet is pretty simple: by default we should expect China to grossly surpass all previous attempts at industrial growth, because it has way more people, of greater discipline and math aptitude, at greater density. The NATO+ bloc also has around 1-2 billion people, but almost maximally geographically dispersed compared to China with way more internal barriers to industrial growth. China can perhaps fundamentally get more efficient economies of scale, better concentration of talent, etc.
Aug 19 • 22 tweets • 5 min read
I am allergic to "talent is lacking" arguments because most people are just blissfully unaware of how ridiculously, comically, unbelievably over-the-top generous progressive philanthropy is. They literally give away millions, *billions* of dollars with effectively no oversight. Image Not only that but there is no shortage of progressive donors doing this. Forget about USAID—you scratch a random corporation anywhere in the world, say Ikea, and you discover that it is for some reason disbursing, also, billions of dollars to progressive causes indiscriminately. Image
Aug 18 • 14 tweets • 4 min read
If you are 20-30 today, you are likely to remain alive and in relatively good cognitive and physical shape to influence society until your 80s, meaning you have about 50-60 years to witness and influence epochal, historic shifts. A huge amount of time that must be used wisely! People often think to themselves how small and hopeless their individual efforts to change society are. Apocalyptically negative changes seem just years away. In the short run, sure. Yet 50-60 years is a lot of time to make a huge impact on the future direction of society.
Jul 23 • 11 tweets • 2 min read
Bureaucracies staffed by middle-aged and elderly petty authoritarian socialist women import criminal migrants then let them loose because this is the closest approximation to organized physical violence they can sustain against their real enemies—taxpayers who could defund them. If the same bureaucracies were staffed by young men, as authoritarian and socialist regimes were in the past, they would not need this convoluted scheme and could just raise irregular organized paramilitaries themselves. But aging women are literally incapable of this.
Jul 15 • 7 tweets • 2 min read
The story of the last century is basically the United States defeating its fellow great powers, in order: Austria-Hungary (1918), Turkey (1918), Germany (1945), Italy (1945), Japan (1945), the United Kingdom (1956), France (1969), and Russia (1991). France was defeated in 1941, but then Charles de Gaulle pulled off a second wind that saw final defeat delayed a few more decades. Since 1999, Putin has been doing the exact same thing in the exact same situation.
Jul 13 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
Boomers allowed affirmative action and diversity politics to take over society. But note that there was never a mass firing of 20-30% of Boomers to make room for diverse hires or whatever. They just grandfathered themselves in then betrayed the next generation with it, as usual. The 2010s woke cancellation wave was in substantial part an attempt by Millennials to remedy this Boomer hypocrisy and grab some of the spoils for themselves. But of course equally if not more unfair, too much collateral damage, and far too unfocused to really work.
Jul 13 • 8 tweets • 2 min read
If a tech CEO revealed he could manufacture self-replicating fully autonomous universally adaptable humaniform AGIs that stayed in good working condition for ~60 years for $450k each, he would be hailed as a hero and the U.S. government would order $10 trillion worth of them. At $450k per child, we could double the U.S. birth rate and reach well above replacement fertility for the price of just $1.6 trillion. That is just 23% of annual federal spending and less than Social Security + Medicare. It's literally a steal!
Jul 13 • 6 tweets • 2 min read
There is a reason we call pilots "Captain" and give them a crisp uniform with that authoritative peaked cap like a military officer or police chief. It's also why I refuse to fly all these new airlines like "CheapJet" and "JizzAir" or whatever. I don't want a humiliated pilot. Imagine you spend years training to fly a colossal steel machine that breathes fire and carries hundreds of souls within it, lives literally in your hands, and then you have to go around wearing a pink uniform and a tag that says "JizzAir" or whatever. Not Lindy. @PaulSkallas
Jul 1 • 7 tweets • 2 min read
From 2009-2011, a trivial amount of investment in Bitcoin would have turned any millionaire into a megabillionaire by now, and any billionaire into a literal trillionaire. Yet none did. This shows even Peter Thiel is understating the case about groupthink/cowardice in business. The fact that as far as we can tell every single professional and major investor in Silicon Valley and Wall Street completely missed by far the best investment opportunity of the last fifteen years—one which wasn't even that obscure—is an indictment of "investing" and "finance."
Jun 29 • 6 tweets • 1 min read
There are only four kinds of politics we have: Boomer Leftism (respectable), Boomer Rightism (populism), Millennial Leftism (Zohran), and Millennial Rightism (Bukele). In 20 years the Boomers and their politics will have died off, and Millennial Leftism won't make sense anymore. Millennial Leftism only makes sense in the context of disenfranchised youth building a battering-ram coalition to loot a little something from the Boomers in the here and now. When the Boomers are dead and gone, it won't make sense anymore. Millennial dictators are inevitable.
Jun 24 • 6 tweets • 1 min read
Rule by engineers has notably produced much better results than rule by scientists. All-powerful engineers get you Sputnik and the Moon landing. All-powerful scientists get you esoteric boondoggles (CERN) and funding the worst ideas ever thought of (COVID-19/gain of function). "Science and engineering" get treated like one thing, but are very different temperamentally and philosophically. The "engineer" takes military funding to solve a practical problem. The "scientist" commits treason to pass military secrets to foreign countries on principle.