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Phillips P. OBrien Profile picture
@PhillipsPOBrien
Jul 6 • 3 tweets • 1 min read Twitter logo Read on Twitter
A really interesting story which highlights the trends in the war (and why they are heading in Ukraine's favor). Extreme Russian losses in equipment and the fact that Ukraine has received NATO support, means that Ukraine now possesses more tanks than Russia...
and is getting closer in # of Artillery and MLRS systems. As NATO equipment is just better than Russian, Ukraine is now arguably qualitatively superior in these categories (assuming it has enough ammunition). weaker.bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
Since Feb 24, 2022, there has been a constant trend in this war. Ukrainian armed forces have gotten better equipment and Russian generally worse (except for Iranian drones).

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More from @PhillipsPOBrien

Phillips P. OBrien Profile picture
Jun 29
Really pleased to see that this article has just appeared on @ForeignAffairs . It argues that we need to drop the whole notion of 'Great' Powers and indeed that we need to reassess the whole idea of what makes a state powerful. For now there is no paywall foreignaffairs.com/ukraine/theres…
It argues that by classifying some powers as 'great' powers (as the Realists repeatedly did about Russia, we overrate their strength. Only a select few powers, which might be better termed as 'full-spectrum' powers have the kind of global reach that makes them very different.
Russia should never have been classified as a great power, as it became a self-fulfilling prophecy. Because, it was falsely argued, Russia was so strong, we should not arm Ukraine with heavy weapons--as Ukraine was not a great power and would not be able to resist sufficiently
Read 4 tweets
Phillips P. OBrien Profile picture
Jun 28
A really interesting poll about US popular support for arming Ukraine. Even though people thought last year at this time that the US population would get bored, and move on, actually support for a Ukraine is rising. Also supports the idea that two basic…reuters.com/world/most-ame…
Factors really help determine US public opinion and support for war. The first is the perception of victory (support will remain strong if Ukraine looks like it can win) and the second is partisanship. Dems more likely to support Dem presidents, Repubs support Repubs
The really good news for Ukraine is that while there is a significant partisan divide, Republican support for arming is still solid and might have strengthened. 56% of Repubs are onboard.
Read 4 tweets
Phillips P. OBrien Profile picture
Jun 18
Lots of people have different ways of helping Ukraine, just want to tell you about the one I’ve chosen. It’s called Come Back Alive. You can find then on Twitter @BackAndAlive savelife.in.ua/en/
I chose to support them because they are a Ukrainian group with a wide basis of societal support, provide tangible aid to Ukrainian forces, and frankly I was a little worried by all the non Ukrainian groups asking for funds. Ever since i opened the substack to subscribers…
I’ve made what I hope are useful donations to them. If you are looking to aid Ukraine and want a trustworthy, effective source, take a look. I visited their offices in Kyiv and can assure you they spend almost nothing on themselves. This is a group to be respected.
Read 5 tweets
Phillips P. OBrien Profile picture
Jun 18
Hi everyone, just sent out my weekend update (its free). Talked about a few things--it might be a very good thing that Russia is having to send its KA-52s into action to try and stop Ukraine (yes they do damage, but they will be very vulnerable too).
phillipspobrien.substack.com/p/weekend-upda… Image
Also, Ukraine now seems to have the ranged capacity to undertake a sustained campaign against Russian logistics previously out of HIMARS range (etc). Witness the attack on Rikove a few hours ago. This is great--only a shame Ukr had to wait so long.
Finally a discussion of why sanctions matter and are helping Ukraine in this war. Its not about Russian morale and whether the shops have goods. Its about the ability of Russia to build or acquire powerful new military equipment.
Read 5 tweets
Phillips P. OBrien Profile picture
Jun 5
This is so silly. The Ukrainians don’t want information on what units might be operating where, and what equipment has been used in what operations. Discussing possible intent (and saying it’s flexible) when the Ukr military is discussing operations is so different
Wait, I can’t believe @IAPonomarenko is spreading classified Ukrainian secrets.
Read 5 tweets
Phillips P. OBrien Profile picture
Jun 4
Hi All, just sent out my weekend update (its free). Two big subjects this week--the talk about NATO membership heats up, and some interesting changes of tone about the state of the Russian military and possible success for Ukraine in the coming offensive
phillipspobrien.substack.com/p/weekend-upda…
The NATO issue is going to grow in intensity as we approach the Vilnius summit. President Zelensky will want some pretty clear assurances on NATO membership for Ukraine before he agrees to attend.
As for the Russian army and military capabilities, really damning comments from US Secty of State Blinken and UK Defense Secty Wallace show major NATO leaders are almost certainly being told that the Russian military is in poor shape, and their is growing optimism for Ukraine.
Read 6 tweets

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