Thread by @puppyeh1

Thanks for all feedback so far re $CMD.AX Cassius. Basically pushback has fallen into two camps:
- why dont they have litigation financing in place yet?
- hasnt Ghana already 'blocked' the arbitration?
- wont this take years?

All good questions but worth examining.

https://twitter.com/puppyeh1/status/1676795185953640449

Re the litigation financing - this is key. Co recently raised capital, idea is to get to seat selection stage - putting the arbitration in motion - to derisk the process, then lock down litigation financing at best possible terms. Obvi I have my views on strength of the case...

...and if they can get lit financing at anything close to $GRX.AX terms (10-15% of gross payout if they win) then the balloon upside optionality goes vertical. Clearly buying now has increased risk given this is not in place, but given the facts as they lay i think its a risk

worth taking.

Re Ghana 'blocking' the arbitration - this is a total furphy, based on misleading Ghana press reports. Ghana has actually refused to appoint their tribunal rep, which, if not done by July 20, would mean the PCA in the Hague would appoint one for them.

Cassius actually put out a PR explaining this:

Frankly if Ghana continues to play hardball and wont even accede to the arbitration, it speaks volumes to the strengths of the $CMD.AX case, in my view. No doubt the arbitrators would look upon that lack of engagement as a measure of guilt..though it may make it harder to collect

And as for 'this is going to take a long time' - that is a fair point; cant really argue. Assuming a full arbitration I expect at least 18mos, maybe 24mos, before a decision is handed down.

But again - the facts of the case are very straightforward; especially so if Ghana...

...refuses to engage. And the key investment point is that we have a number of catalysts along the way to derisk us from current, near-zero option value; to something much more meaningful (quantum analysis; higher claim number; litigation financing; beginning of arbitration; etc)

All in all - prob worth remembering what i said at the outset (ie this is a SPECULATION). but i think its eminently reasonable to expect the speculation to turn into just a risky investment proposition, over the coming months as these catalysts unfold.

And as (or if) that happens this is simply not going to trade at 4% of claim value (or maybe 2% of claim value, if the claim goes up to where I expect). I would be shocked if this gets to arbitration, litigation comes in, and quantum analysis comes through...

...and this has not made it to 8-10c at that time. But we shall see!

GLTA, DYODD 👊👊 $CMD.AX