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Jeremy Raper Profile picture
Jeremy Raper
@puppyeh1
Nothing I say/tweet/emoji is investment advice, and is solely for entertainment only. Always DYODD, I am not your fiduciary!
15 subscribers
Jun 4 • 20 tweets • 5 min read
$MYX.AX Mayne Pharma UPDATE 🚨🚨

Ok this is topical as the buyer, Cosette, filed notice to Terminate so stock now off 12% at $4.2...

TL;DR is I have reversed my view, I think this is an exceptional R/R here given px now below original pre-deal px despite fully papered terms at $7.4... Let's start w/ what I got wrong in the original thread (and why I think its important now). I orig thought that the precise quantification - $10.76mm in EBITDA - as the quantum for MAC definition was problematic for Mayne (the seller).

However since the orig allegation...
May 13 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
Let's update a couple of investments/themes. 1) Aircraft lessors. As expected snap back has been quick but $AL has outperformed $AER.

Still think $AL is the better bet here, given rel val (0.78x vs 1.15x P/B); likely nt catalyst (bback, potential wholeco sale), even if extant RoEs etc still lag for another 18mos.

Have shifted most all my exposure of these two to $AL. Note that $AER is closing in on 10yr highs re P/B...Image Still think another 10-15% upside nt in $AER but easy $$ has been made.

Ofc $AVAP.LN remains v cheap, structurally mispriced, you can look up my old tweets but thats a diff bucket/size/liquidity etc.
May 5 • 16 tweets • 6 min read
Pact Group $PGH.AX a couple of updates 👇👇

If you want to get up to speed on why I am so exercised over this, please read my first writeup here (removing paywall): rapercapital.com/2025/02/06/new…

In particular, section 'The last takeout offer' onwards... x.com/puppyeh1/statu… This current delisting attempt is just the last in a long line of machinations designed to expropriate minorities. The first was this cooked valuation report from the last takeover deal (launched in Sep 2023, not concluded until Jun 2024).

That valuation report conluded...
Mar 6 • 14 tweets • 4 min read
There are many attractive event trades out there right now but $MAPS is prob my favorite. It seems to have that holy trifecta: meaningful upside to a concluded deal; a likely near-term conclusion; and quite low downside on a break.

Been a while since I did one of these...👇👇 $MAPS is a cannabis-focused online marketplace ('Weedmaps'); you can read a decent intro writeup here:

valueinvestorsclub.com/idea/WM_TECHNO…

In late Dec last yr, the founders (still 32% owners) lobbed a $1.70/shr indic bid:

ir.weedmaps.com/news-releases/…
Feb 26 • 9 tweets • 2 min read
A couple of thoughts on Avation $AVAP.LN #AVAP post 1H numbers. Big picture, stock trades ~0.8x P/tangible book (which I think is ~$145m, or 170p ref current), and obvi v large discount to NAV (which incorporates intangibles, the purchase rights), 0.46x P/NAV.

👇👇 1) Gross lease yields and net spread. Yields back above 11% (reported 11.2% basic, 13.5% including maintenance revs), highest in last 4yrs. This is function mostly of releasing the entire fleet (no idle assets), against depreciating assets. Actually not many leases have rolled...
Jan 5 • 7 tweets • 2 min read
Lots of questions on EML Payments, $EML.AX, been quite a roller-coaster in 2024 and stock now 84c, back down from >$1 after the new CEO got unceremoniously dumped on Xmas eve. See here:

announcements.asx.com.au/asxpdf/2024122… x.com/puppyeh1/statu… Lots going on here but high level, mkt skepticism given CEO change (and co history) is intense. Lost in the haze (and pre-Xmas holiday period) is the following:

1) the co reiterated guidance and on that basis the stock trades under 5x EV/EBITDA
Oct 24, 2024 • 16 tweets • 4 min read
What is Greentech actually worth? Pretty interesting question. Not exactly easy to work out, but here's a stab...

$195.HK $MLX.AX

👇👇 Greentech is basically a holdco w/ that consolidates its 82% owned sub, YT Parksong, that owns 50% in Renison. Parksong itself JV-accounts Renison (ie just 50% of Renison assets, liabilities, earnings, etc) meaning Greentech accounts show this 50% number (not their 41% true interest)
Oct 7, 2024 • 10 tweets • 3 min read
I have tweeted sporadically about $CDRO Codere Online previously. This is now one of my largest positions and a core mid-term bet for me. perhaps it is worth explaining why.

Note this is an illiquid security, DYODD, none of this is a reco to buy/sell any security. 🤷‍♂️ $CDRO is two B2C igaming businesses in 2 countries (essentially) - Spain and Mexico. both are v diff markets (maturity; growth rates; etc) but quite attractive in their own way.

Keep in mind as we go that $CDRO is net cash (41mm EUR) with an EV of about 290mm EUR ref 8.1$
Aug 21, 2024 • 17 tweets • 4 min read
$6249.JT Gamecard-Joyco fits the mould here nicely. h/t @marketplunger1 for first bringing it to my attention.

Revisit this thread below then read on 👇👇 Recall the three criteria (absolute stonking cheapness; most all value in non-operating liquid assets; open register).

$6249.JT has all three, in spades.

1) absolute stonking cheapness. mkt cap is 30.5bn (ref 2080). For this you get what?
Aug 21, 2024 • 13 tweets • 3 min read
The people have spoken...Japanese net-net it is 🇯🇵🇯🇵

How do you win in Japanese deep value stocks? The age-old question. Sitting around and waiting is not really one of my strong suits and I've long commented that waiting 5yrs to be taken out at an arbitrary 25% premium... (which often happens w/ controlled or subsidiaries etc) is a pretty bad risk/reward outcome. The fact that many net-nets tend to be bad businesses (chronically poor return and/or no growth), only compounds this worry.

So I've developed a framework for how to attack net-nets...
Jun 27, 2024 • 6 tweets • 2 min read
$TH is a really fat pitch here. $8.2 is basically a 40% implied prob of getting done at terms ($10.8), which this PR this AM basically implied is still very much in play (imo) 👇👇



there were no bogies in the PR...investors.targethospitality.com/news/news-deta… ...and the EBITDA cut ($39mm) was bang in line w/ what market, smart buysiders thought was likely post Dilley news three weeks ago.

If the bidder - at 65% ownership mind you, ie pot committed - didnt pull their $10.8 bid after a few weeks post the bombshell...
May 27, 2024 • 29 tweets • 7 min read
Been a while since I did a deep dive thread so let's do one now. I've mentioned many times that 🇦🇺🦘 small caps is like the land that time forgot when it comes to deep value...that is evidently true here as well. Note that I am basically sized out by most of these things now... ...and while I do own a few mm shares here it is not at all a meaningful position for me given illiquidity/size of my account.

Having said that if I were managing what I managed 4-5yrs ago I would be all over this as it seems a v positively advantaged bet...let me explain...
Apr 28, 2024 • 6 tweets • 2 min read
Cpl pretty interesting developments here $SRX.AX. Recall this remains play money sized only...

1) STAM has left the building, they sold 20% to Gemcorp (looks like an EM credit/special sits shop), at 15c, in a private transaction:

announcements.asx.com.au/asxpdf/2024042…
2) Leonoil, another SL-affiliated entity (maybe the state oil co?) bought 5% in the market, maybe at 13c avg:

announcements.asx.com.au/asxpdf/2024042…
Apr 3, 2024 • 28 tweets • 8 min read
Ok the people have spoken. Let's do this: Sierra Rutile, $SRX.AX, aka 'The Fumble in the Jungle' 👇👇

this will be long, but not exhaustive. pls relisten to @moneyofminepod episodes where Travis did a no of good breakdowns. I will simply jump in a focus on the latest... also - this is SUPER BIG BOY PANTS territory. I have a position - sized like play money for me. My cost basis is 11, 11.5c more or less. i dont think it goes to zero - but that outcome is still possible here...so please, DYODD and always practice safe stonks 😃🖖
Feb 26, 2024 • 14 tweets • 3 min read
I am long this one (Ascent Resources $AST.LN). You should read the below first, it is a decent summary of the case; I will append a few thoughts here.

Note as per all my litigation plays this is sized tiny for me (DYODD). Still there are obvious attractions here. Some of the key things I try to DD beyond the pure legal docs etc are things like jurisdiction (good? bad? middling?); operating asset (or not); and then governing law/treaty status.

Ignoring the quantum of the claim here totally - this is attractive in terms of the above 👇👇
Jan 11, 2024 • 7 tweets • 2 min read
Brief update on EML Payments $EML.AX. Stock px is drifting lower as 1) legacy holders (First Sentier etc) continue to sell (imo) into news vacuum and 2) mkt is increasingly skeptical PCSIL can ever be jettisoned. Think this is totally wrong for reasons outlined previously... what exactly is the mkt pricing in at 75c? Something like this:
- zero value for Sentenial (still under sales process, prob sold by Jun'24 imo, anything >$50mm positive at this point)
- $50mm in remediation/addntl exit costs at PCSIL (2.5yrs of current burn!)
Dec 18, 2023 • 8 tweets • 2 min read
Carnarvon $CVN.AX full board coup. Stock is v interesting here imo. Prev mgmt has been unceremoniously turfed, two largest s/holders (Nero+Collins St) now firmly in control.

Why is this interesting at 18c? 1) Defrays risk of value-destroying acquisition. $CVN.AX has 15-16.5c of adjusted net cash per share (if you discount the capex $ from CPC at some rate), the key risk was prev mgmt had articulated a desire to buy something. See here for eg:

theaustralian.com.au/business/datar…
Dec 1, 2023 • 10 tweets • 2 min read
$EML.AX OK I sent this around so may as well follow up. You all know I own my mistakes and when the facts change I will cop to it. This, I believe is NOT one of those times. massive misinterpretation (imo) by the mkt of latest announcements.

My SoTP fell maybe 10-15c... ...from $1.8 to $1.6 and change, post latest disclosures (mostly on cost creep in core biz).

Actually I think the main reason for the 30% drop is capitulation that PCSIL could ever be jettisoned. This I think is completely wrong and likely to be proven so, prob imminently.
Oct 27, 2023 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
Davey is onto an incredible find here. This is just outrageous, absurd - even for the wasteland that is small-cap Australia.

I am moving v fast here so will be brief but think SoTP value here is low 40s, maybe high 30s vs a stock at 27c...

$WCG.AX Quick SoTP: cash sales proceeds $84mm + $20mm residual 1/3 of Domains + remainco biz $5mm NET PROFIT (hidden in the PR) at say 8-10x ie $40-50mm. On 329mm shs that's 45.1c (using mids on remainco). Image
Oct 26, 2023 • 26 tweets • 7 min read
OK let's do a max conviction bet from this category since peeps keep asking me. Strap in as this will be a long one; this is my largest position and a significant portion of my NAV.

EML Payments $EML.AX 👇👇 First, background: EML is a bit complex, you should read my initial writeup here (when stock was 45c), describes biz in some detail and historical event set up. Im not gonna thread the entire background here.

rapercapital.com/2023/03/30/new…
Oct 20, 2023 • 16 tweets • 4 min read
People asking me for names so lets break down a few. Let's look at $PAC.AX Pacific Current. Bit floating around on fintwit here and there and have mentioned previously, but nothing all-encompassing.

Pretty high conviction bet for me. Trading (almost) like a busted merger... ...when the opposite is true.

Background: $PAC.AX is a boutique listed asset manager w/ minority stakes in a bunch of other AMs. They backed $GQG.AX and still have a 5% stake (worth about 25-30% of $PAC.AX NAV.

In late July Regal (another AM) bid $10.5 in cash and stock...