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Jeremy Raper Profile picture
Jeremy Raper
@puppyeh1
Nothing I say/tweet/emoji is investment advice, and is solely for entertainment only. Always DYODD, I am not your fiduciary!
PPinvest Profile picture Baal Profile picture allan ming Profile picture YieldFanatic Profile picture Hotstaff Profile picture 13 subscribed
Apr 3 • 28 tweets • 8 min read
Ok the people have spoken. Let's do this: Sierra Rutile, $SRX.AX, aka 'The Fumble in the Jungle' 👇👇

this will be long, but not exhaustive. pls relisten to @moneyofminepod episodes where Travis did a no of good breakdowns. I will simply jump in a focus on the latest... also - this is SUPER BIG BOY PANTS territory. I have a position - sized like play money for me. My cost basis is 11, 11.5c more or less. i dont think it goes to zero - but that outcome is still possible here...so please, DYODD and always practice safe stonks 😃🖖
Feb 26 • 14 tweets • 3 min read
I am long this one (Ascent Resources $AST.LN). You should read the below first, it is a decent summary of the case; I will append a few thoughts here.

Note as per all my litigation plays this is sized tiny for me (DYODD). Still there are obvious attractions here. Some of the key things I try to DD beyond the pure legal docs etc are things like jurisdiction (good? bad? middling?); operating asset (or not); and then governing law/treaty status.

Ignoring the quantum of the claim here totally - this is attractive in terms of the above 👇👇
Jan 11 • 7 tweets • 2 min read
Brief update on EML Payments $EML.AX. Stock px is drifting lower as 1) legacy holders (First Sentier etc) continue to sell (imo) into news vacuum and 2) mkt is increasingly skeptical PCSIL can ever be jettisoned. Think this is totally wrong for reasons outlined previously... what exactly is the mkt pricing in at 75c? Something like this:
- zero value for Sentenial (still under sales process, prob sold by Jun'24 imo, anything >$50mm positive at this point)
- $50mm in remediation/addntl exit costs at PCSIL (2.5yrs of current burn!)
Dec 18, 2023 • 8 tweets • 2 min read
Carnarvon $CVN.AX full board coup. Stock is v interesting here imo. Prev mgmt has been unceremoniously turfed, two largest s/holders (Nero+Collins St) now firmly in control.

Why is this interesting at 18c? 1) Defrays risk of value-destroying acquisition. $CVN.AX has 15-16.5c of adjusted net cash per share (if you discount the capex $ from CPC at some rate), the key risk was prev mgmt had articulated a desire to buy something. See here for eg:

theaustralian.com.au/business/datar…
Dec 1, 2023 • 10 tweets • 2 min read
$EML.AX OK I sent this around so may as well follow up. You all know I own my mistakes and when the facts change I will cop to it. This, I believe is NOT one of those times. massive misinterpretation (imo) by the mkt of latest announcements.

My SoTP fell maybe 10-15c... ...from $1.8 to $1.6 and change, post latest disclosures (mostly on cost creep in core biz).

Actually I think the main reason for the 30% drop is capitulation that PCSIL could ever be jettisoned. This I think is completely wrong and likely to be proven so, prob imminently.
Oct 27, 2023 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
Davey is onto an incredible find here. This is just outrageous, absurd - even for the wasteland that is small-cap Australia.

I am moving v fast here so will be brief but think SoTP value here is low 40s, maybe high 30s vs a stock at 27c...

$WCG.AX Quick SoTP: cash sales proceeds $84mm + $20mm residual 1/3 of Domains + remainco biz $5mm NET PROFIT (hidden in the PR) at say 8-10x ie $40-50mm. On 329mm shs that's 45.1c (using mids on remainco). Image
Oct 26, 2023 • 26 tweets • 7 min read
OK let's do a max conviction bet from this category since peeps keep asking me. Strap in as this will be a long one; this is my largest position and a significant portion of my NAV.

EML Payments $EML.AX 👇👇 First, background: EML is a bit complex, you should read my initial writeup here (when stock was 45c), describes biz in some detail and historical event set up. Im not gonna thread the entire background here.

rapercapital.com/2023/03/30/new…
Oct 20, 2023 • 16 tweets • 4 min read
People asking me for names so lets break down a few. Let's look at $PAC.AX Pacific Current. Bit floating around on fintwit here and there and have mentioned previously, but nothing all-encompassing.

Pretty high conviction bet for me. Trading (almost) like a busted merger... ...when the opposite is true.

Background: $PAC.AX is a boutique listed asset manager w/ minority stakes in a bunch of other AMs. They backed $GQG.AX and still have a 5% stake (worth about 25-30% of $PAC.AX NAV.

In late July Regal (another AM) bid $10.5 in cash and stock...
Sep 19, 2023 • 14 tweets • 4 min read
Here's another one of these if anyone is interested. Otto Energy $OEL.AX. You sift through the detritus of the global small-cap landscape, every now and then you find a few pennies.

I can't for the life of me work out why this is trading at 1.8c given all we know...read on... $OEL.AX is a small collection of non-operating working interests in a bunch of production wells in the Gulf. About 55% liquids, of which 8-10% NGLs, rest is nat gas. Prod is 800-850k boe/d so this is tiny.

Per the latest reserve report they have 4.8mm BOE of 2P left: Image
Jul 24, 2023 • 26 tweets • 6 min read
One of the interesting things about microcap securities is there is very poor information osmosis across different names affected by the same event. The example du jour: Winshear Gold, $WINS.V

👇👇 Note - I am LONG $WINS.V but in a size that is completely immaterial to my net worth (it is v illiquid). This is a SPECULATION. Please DYODD and consider this an interesting exploration only...but it sure is interesting...

$WINS.V is basically a Canadian junior miner w/...
Jul 8, 2023 • 11 tweets • 3 min read
Thanks for all feedback so far re $CMD.AX Cassius. Basically pushback has fallen into two camps:
- why dont they have litigation financing in place yet?
- hasnt Ghana already 'blocked' the arbitration?
- wont this take years?

All good questions but worth examining. Re the litigation financing - this is key. Co recently raised capital, idea is to get to seat selection stage - putting the arbitration in motion - to derisk the process, then lock down litigation financing at best possible terms. Obvi I have my views on strength of the case...
Jul 6, 2023 • 35 tweets • 7 min read
I'm a value guy at heart but every now and then I find slightly hairier opportunities that offer blinding asymmetry even if absolute downside is significant.

Cassius Mining $CMD.AX is one of those times. Note I recently became the no 5 shareholder, see here: This will be a long thread, but before reading you should consider 1) this is a <1% position for me and thus sized like a lottery ticket; 2) this has deep upside but obvious 🍩 risks so must be sized as such; 3) always DYODD, what follows is simply my (informed) opinion only.
Jun 21, 2023 • 13 tweets • 3 min read
$FAR.AX perhaps worth unpacking what this is worth now. As usual mkt misunderstands latent value in small-caps - perfect example. Think this is basically a >50% IRR from here w/ very understandable and limited risk. Keep in mind I am v long this so dyodd but read on... Main risk here was always 'will mgmt burn all the cash and buy something dumb?' Obvi completely off the table now. Returning 95% of cash essentially says 1) we will not buy anything (they cant) and 2) we will wind-up posthaste (given language ard Woodside monetization).
Jun 8, 2023 • 8 tweets • 2 min read
Pretty interesting smallcap illiquid shitco for all you degenerates out there. Bathurst Resources $BRL.AX trading around a $30mm EV give or take, prob neg EV by end 3Q.

All the cash comes from a highish cost met coal mine in NZ - not great bob - but actually the key issue is... ...a RIDICULOUS (yes all caps justified) JV structure whereby they own 65% of the key metcoal mining asset but do not have board control ie the 35% junior partner (the Talleys) can veto any cash upstreaming/divs to the parent entities.

Guess what they are doing 😒
Jun 5, 2023 • 11 tweets • 2 min read
I’m continually shocked by the amount of value available in off the run/illiquid/small cap securities. Todays eg - Sierra Rutile $SRX.AX. Mkt cap $91mm AUD ref 21.5c, they have prob $60mm USD net cash, no debt currently so EV is tantamount to zero.

👇🏻👇🏻 $SRX.AX produces 30% of the global supply of rutile (basically a TiO2 feedstock, so paint input) from a single mine in Sierra Leone. This mine has only 3yrs worth of reserves so there is a massive new project, Sembehun, almost at DFS (end this yr) that would offer 30+ yrs…
Jun 4, 2023 • 7 tweets • 2 min read
In Okinawa for a few days r&r trying to forget how poorly a bunch of my (mostly commod-related) names have been doing. Will go back to pina coladas and throwing kids in water-slides promptly, but worth thinking about how cheap some of these names are becoming right now... Eg $SMR.AX. kinda softish 1Q print (on FCF) but not horrendous by any means. They paid $150/t to acquire to BHP assets; current implied valn (ref $2.5) is about $124/t and equity is too low to acquire Daunia etc...

Maybe 1.5x EV/EBIT, 2x EV/NPAT at spot...
May 30, 2023 • 11 tweets • 3 min read
Its funny looking back at some of these to see how horrendous management has been. The simple concept of cost of capital is so elementary and yet so misunderstood (or ignored) by so many supposed fiduciaries, it almost makes my brain melt.

Will unpack here a little... $KCN.AX If you read the above inserted thread you'll see $KCN.AX was a special sits play, quite likely to get a v large abitration award ($500-$750mm) from TAFTA in return for being expropriated from a Thai gold mine back in 2016.

Back then the mine was doing 120koz/yr at <$900 AISC.
Apr 24, 2023 • 13 tweets • 3 min read
Fairly interesting transaction announced this AM in 🇦🇺, Samuel Terry (STAM) bidding 93c for micro-cap Eildon Capital $EDC.AX. I have no position and no vested interest. Just an interesting example of how much value exists in Aussie small caps... $EDC.AX comprises a bunch of debt + equity investments (all RE related) sitting in a trust (ECT) and an investment mgmt biz (Eildon Capital), which as $360mm in adjusted FUM (they just closed a new fund) and a cpl of direct equity investments. Image
Mar 24, 2023 • 17 tweets • 4 min read
Having moonlighted as a banks analyst for a couple weeks 🤡🤡 it's time to go back to regularly-scheduled programming: deep-dive stock threads; the occasional shitpost; bagging on Ponzi Ronzi; and cute kids pics.

Today let's catch up on Posabit $PBIT.TO $POSAF. Been a while... You can read the legacy thesis here:

seekingalpha.com/article/446231…

Stock is off about 45% since this, as 1) anything cannabis has been absolutely destroyed last 18mos; 2) high-growth/low or no profit stocks have been decimated.

None of that is new. But I think now is time to revisit
Feb 21, 2023 • 10 tweets • 3 min read
OK so $TECK is off the top rope early this AM with the details on its metcoal biz spin (Elk Valley Resources, EVR).

Few quick thoughts. Complex deal so subject to change but rough cut is basically, who in their right mind is gonna wanna own this structure over other met coal 😲 PR is here:

teck.com/media/23-15-TR…

$TECK is stripping 90% of FCF from the metcoal biz, post spin off, via a Royalty payment at 60% of gross revs AND slapping $4.4bn of prefs onto EVR, carrying a 6.5% cumulative div. See here:
Feb 20, 2023 • 14 tweets • 5 min read
For those wondering what this Golden Energy and Resources $AUE.SI deal is about, quick mini thread on what is going on.

👇👇I sent to the IFA (independent financial advisor) appointed to opine on the fairness of the deal. Covers my key complaints:

rapercapital.com/engagement-cam… 1) I believe there may well have been a violation of Singapore listing/mainbook rules. Rule 1309 see here:

rulebook.sgx.com/rulebook/1309-…

Exit Offers must be deemed fair and reasonable by an IFA...