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Jeremy Raper Profile picture
Jeremy Raper
@puppyeh1
Nothing I say/tweet/emoji is investment advice, and is solely for entertainment only. Always DYODD, I am not your fiduciary!
16 subscribers
Oct 7 • 10 tweets • 3 min read
I have tweeted sporadically about $CDRO Codere Online previously. This is now one of my largest positions and a core mid-term bet for me. perhaps it is worth explaining why.

Note this is an illiquid security, DYODD, none of this is a reco to buy/sell any security. 🤷‍♂️ $CDRO is two B2C igaming businesses in 2 countries (essentially) - Spain and Mexico. both are v diff markets (maturity; growth rates; etc) but quite attractive in their own way.

Keep in mind as we go that $CDRO is net cash (41mm EUR) with an EV of about 290mm EUR ref 8.1$
Aug 21 • 17 tweets • 4 min read
$6249.JT Gamecard-Joyco fits the mould here nicely. h/t @marketplunger1 for first bringing it to my attention.

Revisit this thread below then read on 👇👇 Recall the three criteria (absolute stonking cheapness; most all value in non-operating liquid assets; open register).

$6249.JT has all three, in spades.

1) absolute stonking cheapness. mkt cap is 30.5bn (ref 2080). For this you get what?
Aug 21 • 13 tweets • 3 min read
The people have spoken...Japanese net-net it is 🇯🇵🇯🇵

How do you win in Japanese deep value stocks? The age-old question. Sitting around and waiting is not really one of my strong suits and I've long commented that waiting 5yrs to be taken out at an arbitrary 25% premium... (which often happens w/ controlled or subsidiaries etc) is a pretty bad risk/reward outcome. The fact that many net-nets tend to be bad businesses (chronically poor return and/or no growth), only compounds this worry.

So I've developed a framework for how to attack net-nets...
Jun 27 • 6 tweets • 2 min read
$TH is a really fat pitch here. $8.2 is basically a 40% implied prob of getting done at terms ($10.8), which this PR this AM basically implied is still very much in play (imo) 👇👇



there were no bogies in the PR...investors.targethospitality.com/news/news-deta… ...and the EBITDA cut ($39mm) was bang in line w/ what market, smart buysiders thought was likely post Dilley news three weeks ago.

If the bidder - at 65% ownership mind you, ie pot committed - didnt pull their $10.8 bid after a few weeks post the bombshell...
May 27 • 29 tweets • 7 min read
Been a while since I did a deep dive thread so let's do one now. I've mentioned many times that 🇦🇺🦘 small caps is like the land that time forgot when it comes to deep value...that is evidently true here as well. Note that I am basically sized out by most of these things now... ...and while I do own a few mm shares here it is not at all a meaningful position for me given illiquidity/size of my account.

Having said that if I were managing what I managed 4-5yrs ago I would be all over this as it seems a v positively advantaged bet...let me explain...
Apr 28 • 6 tweets • 2 min read
Cpl pretty interesting developments here $SRX.AX. Recall this remains play money sized only...

1) STAM has left the building, they sold 20% to Gemcorp (looks like an EM credit/special sits shop), at 15c, in a private transaction:

announcements.asx.com.au/asxpdf/2024042…
2) Leonoil, another SL-affiliated entity (maybe the state oil co?) bought 5% in the market, maybe at 13c avg:

announcements.asx.com.au/asxpdf/2024042…
Apr 3 • 28 tweets • 8 min read
Ok the people have spoken. Let's do this: Sierra Rutile, $SRX.AX, aka 'The Fumble in the Jungle' 👇👇

this will be long, but not exhaustive. pls relisten to @moneyofminepod episodes where Travis did a no of good breakdowns. I will simply jump in a focus on the latest... also - this is SUPER BIG BOY PANTS territory. I have a position - sized like play money for me. My cost basis is 11, 11.5c more or less. i dont think it goes to zero - but that outcome is still possible here...so please, DYODD and always practice safe stonks 😃🖖
Feb 26 • 14 tweets • 3 min read
I am long this one (Ascent Resources $AST.LN). You should read the below first, it is a decent summary of the case; I will append a few thoughts here.

Note as per all my litigation plays this is sized tiny for me (DYODD). Still there are obvious attractions here. Some of the key things I try to DD beyond the pure legal docs etc are things like jurisdiction (good? bad? middling?); operating asset (or not); and then governing law/treaty status.

Ignoring the quantum of the claim here totally - this is attractive in terms of the above 👇👇
Jan 11 • 7 tweets • 2 min read
Brief update on EML Payments $EML.AX. Stock px is drifting lower as 1) legacy holders (First Sentier etc) continue to sell (imo) into news vacuum and 2) mkt is increasingly skeptical PCSIL can ever be jettisoned. Think this is totally wrong for reasons outlined previously... what exactly is the mkt pricing in at 75c? Something like this:
- zero value for Sentenial (still under sales process, prob sold by Jun'24 imo, anything >$50mm positive at this point)
- $50mm in remediation/addntl exit costs at PCSIL (2.5yrs of current burn!)
Dec 18, 2023 • 8 tweets • 2 min read
Carnarvon $CVN.AX full board coup. Stock is v interesting here imo. Prev mgmt has been unceremoniously turfed, two largest s/holders (Nero+Collins St) now firmly in control.

Why is this interesting at 18c? 1) Defrays risk of value-destroying acquisition. $CVN.AX has 15-16.5c of adjusted net cash per share (if you discount the capex $ from CPC at some rate), the key risk was prev mgmt had articulated a desire to buy something. See here for eg:

theaustralian.com.au/business/datar…
Dec 1, 2023 • 10 tweets • 2 min read
$EML.AX OK I sent this around so may as well follow up. You all know I own my mistakes and when the facts change I will cop to it. This, I believe is NOT one of those times. massive misinterpretation (imo) by the mkt of latest announcements.

My SoTP fell maybe 10-15c... ...from $1.8 to $1.6 and change, post latest disclosures (mostly on cost creep in core biz).

Actually I think the main reason for the 30% drop is capitulation that PCSIL could ever be jettisoned. This I think is completely wrong and likely to be proven so, prob imminently.
Oct 27, 2023 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
Davey is onto an incredible find here. This is just outrageous, absurd - even for the wasteland that is small-cap Australia.

I am moving v fast here so will be brief but think SoTP value here is low 40s, maybe high 30s vs a stock at 27c...

$WCG.AX Quick SoTP: cash sales proceeds $84mm + $20mm residual 1/3 of Domains + remainco biz $5mm NET PROFIT (hidden in the PR) at say 8-10x ie $40-50mm. On 329mm shs that's 45.1c (using mids on remainco). Image
Oct 26, 2023 • 26 tweets • 7 min read
OK let's do a max conviction bet from this category since peeps keep asking me. Strap in as this will be a long one; this is my largest position and a significant portion of my NAV.

EML Payments $EML.AX 👇👇 First, background: EML is a bit complex, you should read my initial writeup here (when stock was 45c), describes biz in some detail and historical event set up. Im not gonna thread the entire background here.

rapercapital.com/2023/03/30/new…
Oct 20, 2023 • 16 tweets • 4 min read
People asking me for names so lets break down a few. Let's look at $PAC.AX Pacific Current. Bit floating around on fintwit here and there and have mentioned previously, but nothing all-encompassing.

Pretty high conviction bet for me. Trading (almost) like a busted merger... ...when the opposite is true.

Background: $PAC.AX is a boutique listed asset manager w/ minority stakes in a bunch of other AMs. They backed $GQG.AX and still have a 5% stake (worth about 25-30% of $PAC.AX NAV.

In late July Regal (another AM) bid $10.5 in cash and stock...
Sep 19, 2023 • 14 tweets • 4 min read
Here's another one of these if anyone is interested. Otto Energy $OEL.AX. You sift through the detritus of the global small-cap landscape, every now and then you find a few pennies.

I can't for the life of me work out why this is trading at 1.8c given all we know...read on... $OEL.AX is a small collection of non-operating working interests in a bunch of production wells in the Gulf. About 55% liquids, of which 8-10% NGLs, rest is nat gas. Prod is 800-850k boe/d so this is tiny.

Per the latest reserve report they have 4.8mm BOE of 2P left: Image
Jul 24, 2023 • 26 tweets • 6 min read
One of the interesting things about microcap securities is there is very poor information osmosis across different names affected by the same event. The example du jour: Winshear Gold, $WINS.V

👇👇 Note - I am LONG $WINS.V but in a size that is completely immaterial to my net worth (it is v illiquid). This is a SPECULATION. Please DYODD and consider this an interesting exploration only...but it sure is interesting...

$WINS.V is basically a Canadian junior miner w/...
Jul 8, 2023 • 11 tweets • 3 min read
Thanks for all feedback so far re $CMD.AX Cassius. Basically pushback has fallen into two camps:
- why dont they have litigation financing in place yet?
- hasnt Ghana already 'blocked' the arbitration?
- wont this take years?

All good questions but worth examining. Re the litigation financing - this is key. Co recently raised capital, idea is to get to seat selection stage - putting the arbitration in motion - to derisk the process, then lock down litigation financing at best possible terms. Obvi I have my views on strength of the case...
Jul 6, 2023 • 35 tweets • 7 min read
I'm a value guy at heart but every now and then I find slightly hairier opportunities that offer blinding asymmetry even if absolute downside is significant.

Cassius Mining $CMD.AX is one of those times. Note I recently became the no 5 shareholder, see here: This will be a long thread, but before reading you should consider 1) this is a <1% position for me and thus sized like a lottery ticket; 2) this has deep upside but obvious 🍩 risks so must be sized as such; 3) always DYODD, what follows is simply my (informed) opinion only.
Jun 21, 2023 • 13 tweets • 3 min read
$FAR.AX perhaps worth unpacking what this is worth now. As usual mkt misunderstands latent value in small-caps - perfect example. Think this is basically a >50% IRR from here w/ very understandable and limited risk. Keep in mind I am v long this so dyodd but read on... Main risk here was always 'will mgmt burn all the cash and buy something dumb?' Obvi completely off the table now. Returning 95% of cash essentially says 1) we will not buy anything (they cant) and 2) we will wind-up posthaste (given language ard Woodside monetization).
Jun 8, 2023 • 8 tweets • 2 min read
Pretty interesting smallcap illiquid shitco for all you degenerates out there. Bathurst Resources $BRL.AX trading around a $30mm EV give or take, prob neg EV by end 3Q.

All the cash comes from a highish cost met coal mine in NZ - not great bob - but actually the key issue is... ...a RIDICULOUS (yes all caps justified) JV structure whereby they own 65% of the key metcoal mining asset but do not have board control ie the 35% junior partner (the Talleys) can veto any cash upstreaming/divs to the parent entities.

Guess what they are doing 😒
Jun 5, 2023 • 11 tweets • 2 min read
I’m continually shocked by the amount of value available in off the run/illiquid/small cap securities. Todays eg - Sierra Rutile $SRX.AX. Mkt cap $91mm AUD ref 21.5c, they have prob $60mm USD net cash, no debt currently so EV is tantamount to zero.

👇🏻👇🏻 $SRX.AX produces 30% of the global supply of rutile (basically a TiO2 feedstock, so paint input) from a single mine in Sierra Leone. This mine has only 3yrs worth of reserves so there is a massive new project, Sembehun, almost at DFS (end this yr) that would offer 30+ yrs…