Tymofiy Mylovanov Profile picture
Jul 8, 2023 21 tweets 4 min read Read on X
Day 500 of the Russian war in Ukraine.

I am president of the Kyiv School of Economics, a former minister of economy of Ukraine, and a professor of economics at the University of Pittsburgh. I left the US for Kyiv 4 days before the war.

These are the lessons I learned. 1/
1. We owe our survival to unity and ingenuity
2. Empathy holds more power than rationality.
3. Understanding is out of reach without personal experience
4. War can forge you into a better person, tuned into the world's real problems
2/
5. Our Ukrainian success hinges on knowledge and continual learning
6. The harshness and monotony of war quickly become the norm
7. Life's singular purpose is to persist and advance towards victory for Ukraine; all else is secondary.
3/
Let me expand on each of this points.

1. Unity and ingenuity.

Russia was hoping that a politically polarized Ukrainian society won't be able to provide a quick and unified response to the invasion. They expected that Ukrainians will be slow to react. 4/
And surrender its state and government. After all, in the Russia view, people don't have agency. Russian people are no one for the Kremlin, why should Ukrainians be any different.

But we are. The war has shown unprecedented unity, willpower, and innovation by the Ukrainians 5/
2. Empathy holds more power than rationality.

This one is difficult to explain. Because it is irrational. People sacrifice their lives so that others can survive. On the individual level, to a rational person, educated in the West, or living in Russia, it might not make sense 6/
But when you are in the war, you are not doing careful rational calculus. You are often driven by emotions, a much more powerful motivator. In the case of Ukraine, these are primal emotions. Ukraine has been attacked, people are tortured and killed. 7/
This is the biggest injustice there could be in the world, and it must be corrected. This is what drives people. While it might not be rational, it saves Ukraine and it will ensure our independence and safety from Russia in the future. At the unbelievable high cost of lives 8/
Now I understand that it must be how nations are created and that not any tribe or people could be a nation. Independence and freedom are not free. I just wish fewer people would have to die. 9/
3. Understanding is out of reach without personal experience

The war is covered in fog. Literally and through disinformation. Also, most of our cognitive and learning frameworks that we are humans and societies have developed - fail. They are not adequate for this environment.10
So, unless you see and experience it, you don't really know what to believe. This is why it is critically important to visit the front lines, to speak with the soldiers, to interact with the survivors of occupation, and visit all kinds of places in Ukraine. 11/
Ukraine is large and the war is diverse. Sometimes two villages a couple of miles apart have had very different experiences and now have different attitudes and culture. So, I have learned to be humble and try to learn first from eyewitness to form my own opinion. 12/
4. War can forge you into a better person, tuned into the world's real problems

This one is simple. War makes you a better person because it cleans you of all secondary thoughts and ambitions. The human life, dignity, freedom become key for me. 12/
Now I truly understand the meaning of the human rights. They are not an abstraction for me anymore. Yes, they can be taken away. They can disappear from your life without warning. You can wake up occupied. But human rights must be defended at all costs. 13/
5. Our Ukrainian success hinges on knowledge and continual learning

Russia is powerful, bigger, has a lot of weapons and people willing to fight or too afraid to desert.

So, we need to be smarter, better educated, more tech savvy. We have to deploy technology to win. 14/
And we have to be educated to continue to run our society and economy, during and post war. 15/
6. The harshness and monotony of war quickly become the norm

Before the war I was afraid of the war. I was not sure whether I would behave in a decent way. Would I run away from Ukraine? Would I be afraid to be at the frontlines?

Clearly, people are differently programmed 16/
But what I learned about the fear of war is that it also comes from ignorance, from the loss of control over your life. Over time one get used to the war, one learns how to live through. Humans are amazing at adapting. The war shows it to you. 17/
7. Life's singular purpose is to persist and advance towards victory for Ukraine; all else is secondary.

That's for me. And for most Ukrainians. We want to survive. So, while I miss my academic career in the US and regret that I might not be a good economist as a result of 18/
coming back to Ukraine before the war, I think I have made the right choices as a human. I have one life and I want to liver it true. So, Ukraine must win, and the rest can wait.

Thank you for reading this. I feel we are not alone in this. It will be over one day. X
My main purpose in life is to build KSE university! This is especially important during the war. If you want to support KSE, you can do it here

Thank you so much for your solidarity!foundation.kse.ua

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More from @Mylovanov

Jun 19
Zelenskyy: Lukashenko says he doesn't want to be dragged into this war. He should be honest with his own people.

It's not him being dragged in, it's his entire country, dragged in by Russia. They've been doing this since day one of the full-scale invasion. That is a fact. 1/
Zelenskyy: When the full-scale war began, missiles flew from Belarus — killing children, killing adults.

He called and apologized, said he didn't control it, that Russia acted on his territory. I don't believe that. Now Russia will keep pushing him deeper into this war. 2/
Zelenskyy: Right now on Belarusian towers along our border there are Russian retranslators and equipment correcting fire on Ukrainian civilians.

People are dying every day because of this. Children are being wounded. Can he remove it? If he doesn't — we will do it ourselves. 3/
Read 6 tweets
Jun 19
Keane: If we can’t go any place we want, when we want, for as long as we want, we don’t have verification.

Any Iran deal must include anywhere, anytime inspections. 1/
Keane: Iran manipulated the IAEA for years. Old protocol let Tehran decide where, when, and how long to inspect.

U.S. and Mossad intelligence must drive inspections. When it pointed to secret sites, enrichment, or centrifuges, Iran said: No deal. That’s not in the protocol. 2/
Keane: The nature of the regime has not changed. They say one thing and do another. We cannot trust them. We have to enforce compliance.

The U.S. could have finished the offensive operation. Now we are on a diplomatic path. We’ve got them on their knees. Let’s finish this. 3X
Read 5 tweets
Jun 19
Fukuyama on Trump's Iran deal: This was not a win. It was a total US capitulation, merely solving a problem that Trump and Netanyahu themselves created by launching the war in the first place.

No regime change. No surrender. The IRGC is more firmly in control than ever before 1/
Fukuyama: No commitment to stop enriching uranium. No commitment to ending support for Hezbollah or Houthis. No agreement on protesters. All kicked down the road into 60-day negotiations.

Trump treated these issues as already conceded. But if so — why weren't they in the MOU? 2/
Fukuyama: It is very unlikely Iran will budge over the next two months. These are precisely the issues that speak to the regime's core identity and survival.

He chose to back down and accept a return to the status quo from before he started the war on February 28th. 3X
Read 5 tweets
Jun 19
Petraeus: Ukraine will manufacture 7 million drones this year, doubled from last year. They use 10,000 per day.

Software changes every week or two, hardware every three to four weeks. About 60% of battlefield drones now use fiber optic cable extending 30 to 35 kilometers. 1/
Petraeus: Ukraine created an entirely new military branch, an Unmanned Systems Force alongside army, navy, and air force.

This organization is inflicting over 90% of all casualties on Russians on the battlefield daily. No other country has done anything like it. 2/
Petraeus: What is coming next: autonomous systems of autonomous systems.

Sensors collecting autonomously, integrated into a common picture, command and control making decisions, issuing orders to autonomous weapons. Coming soon to a theater near us. Ukraine will show it first 3X
Read 5 tweets
Jun 19
Petraeus: Ukraine is outnumbered five to one in personnel and twelve to one in the economy.

They are taking the fight to Russia on the front lines, on the Black Sea, in the depth of the battlefield, and inside the Russian Federation itself. Every single day. 1/
Petraeus: Ukraine has sunk over 35% of the Russian Black Sea Fleet — without a navy.

They did it with aerial drones that find the ships and maritime drones that sink them, all designed by Ukrainians themselves. The fleet is now hiding in a port as far from Ukraine as possible. 2/
Petraeus: They have hit at least 40% of Russia's fuel storage and refineries.

They blew up a fuel depot in St. Petersburg the morning Putin opened his economic forum, then hit again the next day. Russia has taken more killed and wounded than the US did in all of World War II. 3X
Read 5 tweets
Jun 19
Petraeus: There is a death zone of about 35 kilometers on the front lines in Ukraine. You do not drive a vehicle in it.

Commanders cannot visit their troops. There are no trenches, drones fly through trenches. Only survivability positions underground. You burrow in from the side. 1/
Petraeus: All resupply is done by remotely driven vehicles. Medical evacuation, ammunition, food, batteries — everything.

Soldiers come out at night to collect supplies and get back underground before the enemy can react. That is the reality of this war right now. 2/
Petraeus: I watched engagements in drone operation centers. A Russian soldier appears on screen.

If he is not back into cover very quickly — it is over. They use multiple surveillance drones, 5 to 10 minutes of battery life on station each. Then the suicide drones come. 3X
Read 5 tweets

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