Tymofiy Mylovanov Profile picture
Jul 8, 2023 21 tweets 4 min read Read on X
Day 500 of the Russian war in Ukraine.

I am president of the Kyiv School of Economics, a former minister of economy of Ukraine, and a professor of economics at the University of Pittsburgh. I left the US for Kyiv 4 days before the war.

These are the lessons I learned. 1/
1. We owe our survival to unity and ingenuity
2. Empathy holds more power than rationality.
3. Understanding is out of reach without personal experience
4. War can forge you into a better person, tuned into the world's real problems
2/
5. Our Ukrainian success hinges on knowledge and continual learning
6. The harshness and monotony of war quickly become the norm
7. Life's singular purpose is to persist and advance towards victory for Ukraine; all else is secondary.
3/
Let me expand on each of this points.

1. Unity and ingenuity.

Russia was hoping that a politically polarized Ukrainian society won't be able to provide a quick and unified response to the invasion. They expected that Ukrainians will be slow to react. 4/
And surrender its state and government. After all, in the Russia view, people don't have agency. Russian people are no one for the Kremlin, why should Ukrainians be any different.

But we are. The war has shown unprecedented unity, willpower, and innovation by the Ukrainians 5/
2. Empathy holds more power than rationality.

This one is difficult to explain. Because it is irrational. People sacrifice their lives so that others can survive. On the individual level, to a rational person, educated in the West, or living in Russia, it might not make sense 6/
But when you are in the war, you are not doing careful rational calculus. You are often driven by emotions, a much more powerful motivator. In the case of Ukraine, these are primal emotions. Ukraine has been attacked, people are tortured and killed. 7/
This is the biggest injustice there could be in the world, and it must be corrected. This is what drives people. While it might not be rational, it saves Ukraine and it will ensure our independence and safety from Russia in the future. At the unbelievable high cost of lives 8/
Now I understand that it must be how nations are created and that not any tribe or people could be a nation. Independence and freedom are not free. I just wish fewer people would have to die. 9/
3. Understanding is out of reach without personal experience

The war is covered in fog. Literally and through disinformation. Also, most of our cognitive and learning frameworks that we are humans and societies have developed - fail. They are not adequate for this environment.10
So, unless you see and experience it, you don't really know what to believe. This is why it is critically important to visit the front lines, to speak with the soldiers, to interact with the survivors of occupation, and visit all kinds of places in Ukraine. 11/
Ukraine is large and the war is diverse. Sometimes two villages a couple of miles apart have had very different experiences and now have different attitudes and culture. So, I have learned to be humble and try to learn first from eyewitness to form my own opinion. 12/
4. War can forge you into a better person, tuned into the world's real problems

This one is simple. War makes you a better person because it cleans you of all secondary thoughts and ambitions. The human life, dignity, freedom become key for me. 12/
Now I truly understand the meaning of the human rights. They are not an abstraction for me anymore. Yes, they can be taken away. They can disappear from your life without warning. You can wake up occupied. But human rights must be defended at all costs. 13/
5. Our Ukrainian success hinges on knowledge and continual learning

Russia is powerful, bigger, has a lot of weapons and people willing to fight or too afraid to desert.

So, we need to be smarter, better educated, more tech savvy. We have to deploy technology to win. 14/
And we have to be educated to continue to run our society and economy, during and post war. 15/
6. The harshness and monotony of war quickly become the norm

Before the war I was afraid of the war. I was not sure whether I would behave in a decent way. Would I run away from Ukraine? Would I be afraid to be at the frontlines?

Clearly, people are differently programmed 16/
But what I learned about the fear of war is that it also comes from ignorance, from the loss of control over your life. Over time one get used to the war, one learns how to live through. Humans are amazing at adapting. The war shows it to you. 17/
7. Life's singular purpose is to persist and advance towards victory for Ukraine; all else is secondary.

That's for me. And for most Ukrainians. We want to survive. So, while I miss my academic career in the US and regret that I might not be a good economist as a result of 18/
coming back to Ukraine before the war, I think I have made the right choices as a human. I have one life and I want to liver it true. So, Ukraine must win, and the rest can wait.

Thank you for reading this. I feel we are not alone in this. It will be over one day. X
My main purpose in life is to build KSE university! This is especially important during the war. If you want to support KSE, you can do it here

Thank you so much for your solidarity!foundation.kse.ua

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More from @Mylovanov

Feb 16
Stubb: I don’t believe Russia keeps fighting to gain territory. In 12 years it gained about 8% more, and recently just 1%.

Losses are huge — 34,000 in December, 30,000 in January — and recruitment lags. The real issue is the political cost for Putin.

1/
Stubb: Russia has always had troops on our border. I think Russia is losing — the war was Putin’s strategic mistake.

He wanted to stop NATO and keep Europe weak. Instead, Finland and Sweden joined, and Europe is moving to 5%. The Nordics and Baltics are not next.

2/
Stubb: Russia is not going to test Article 5. But it remains a long-term threat — imperialism and expansion are in its DNA.

It hasn’t reckoned honestly with its history. We must ensure those ambitions don’t spill into the South Caucasus or Central Asia.

3X
Read 5 tweets
Feb 15
Stalin expected to crush Finland in 10 days. It took 105 days and 400,000 Soviet casualties. He got 10% of Finnish territory.

Putin invaded Ukraine expecting a quick victory parade. 4 years later, Russia controls just 20% of pre-war Ukrainian territory — WP. 1/ Image
Stalin's USSR had 170 million people vs Finland's 3.5 million. A Soviet general told Stalin it would take 10 days max.

Molotov said Stalin wanted to celebrate his birthday "on the steps of Finland's Parliament in precisely 20 days." 2/
The war ended March 13, 1940 — over three months later with massive Soviet losses the Kremlin concealed.

Stalin had to settle for a fraction of what he wanted. Sound familiar? 3/
Read 9 tweets
Feb 15
Petraeus: This is Ukraine's greatest generation.

When the cessation of hostilities begins, we're going to see Ukraine as the greatest military industrial complex in the West, building an entirely new country focused on new technologies and new economic endeavors. 1/
Petraeus: Ukraine is producing tomorrow's technology for today's war. West produces yesterday's technology for tomorrow's wars. That's got to be changed dramatically.

They've got to overhaul that, bring it more up to date, to reflect how warfare is evolving on the ground, in the air and on the sea in Ukraine. 2/
Petraeus: What allies have got to do is not fall into the trap of buying legacy systems rather than buying what is the future of warfare. The place to see that is in Ukraine.

We‘ve got to learn how they have shortened the kill chain. It starts with new concepts for operations that turn into doctrine. 3X
Read 4 tweets
Feb 15
Rubio: The US and Europe are heirs to the same civilization.

From language to law to government, America is built on Western foundations. This alliance is not just military or commercial, it is civilizational. 1/
Rubio: When the US sounds critical about Europe, it is because we care. Our fate is intertwined with Europe’s. We want Europe to survive and prosper.

But this must be an alliance of partners willing and capable of fighting for who they are and what matters to them. 2/
Rubio: China is not the new Soviet Union. But there are parallels. Our future will be stronger if we address shared challenges together.

Great powers must maintain dialogue. It would be irresponsible not to talk and avoid unnecessary conflict. 3X
Read 5 tweets
Feb 15
Starmer: Europe is a sleeping giant. Our economies dwarf Russia’s — by more than 10 times over. We have enormous defense capabilities.

Europe has more than 20 types of frigates, around 10 types of fighter jets, over 10 types of main battle tanks. Meanwhile, the US has one. 1/
Starmer: Russia has made a huge strategic blunder in Ukraine. Russian casualties number well over a million.

But even as the war continues, Russia is rearming and reconstituting its armed forces and industrial base. 2/
Starmer: Even if a peace deal in Ukraine is struck, Russia’s rearmament would likely only accelerate. The wider danger to Europe would not end there. It would increase.

We must respond to this threat in full. 3/
Read 7 tweets
Feb 15
Rubio: The U.S. is not leaving NATO. We have thousands of troops deployed and may shift some forces, as we always have, but our commitment stands.

We welcome stronger NATO capabilities and greater influence from allies. That’s a positive, not a threat.

1/
Rubio: We don’t want Europe to be dependent on America. We’re not asking Europe to be a vassal, we want to be partners.

The stronger each country and NATO as a whole are, the stronger the alliance is.

2X
Source:
Read 4 tweets

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