I am president of the Kyiv School of Economics, a former minister of economy of Ukraine, and a professor of economics at the University of Pittsburgh. I left the US for Kyiv 4 days before the war.
These are the lessons I learned. 1/
1. We owe our survival to unity and ingenuity 2. Empathy holds more power than rationality. 3. Understanding is out of reach without personal experience 4. War can forge you into a better person, tuned into the world's real problems
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5. Our Ukrainian success hinges on knowledge and continual learning 6. The harshness and monotony of war quickly become the norm 7. Life's singular purpose is to persist and advance towards victory for Ukraine; all else is secondary.
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Let me expand on each of this points.
1. Unity and ingenuity.
Russia was hoping that a politically polarized Ukrainian society won't be able to provide a quick and unified response to the invasion. They expected that Ukrainians will be slow to react. 4/
And surrender its state and government. After all, in the Russia view, people don't have agency. Russian people are no one for the Kremlin, why should Ukrainians be any different.
But we are. The war has shown unprecedented unity, willpower, and innovation by the Ukrainians 5/
2. Empathy holds more power than rationality.
This one is difficult to explain. Because it is irrational. People sacrifice their lives so that others can survive. On the individual level, to a rational person, educated in the West, or living in Russia, it might not make sense 6/
But when you are in the war, you are not doing careful rational calculus. You are often driven by emotions, a much more powerful motivator. In the case of Ukraine, these are primal emotions. Ukraine has been attacked, people are tortured and killed. 7/
This is the biggest injustice there could be in the world, and it must be corrected. This is what drives people. While it might not be rational, it saves Ukraine and it will ensure our independence and safety from Russia in the future. At the unbelievable high cost of lives 8/
Now I understand that it must be how nations are created and that not any tribe or people could be a nation. Independence and freedom are not free. I just wish fewer people would have to die. 9/
3. Understanding is out of reach without personal experience
The war is covered in fog. Literally and through disinformation. Also, most of our cognitive and learning frameworks that we are humans and societies have developed - fail. They are not adequate for this environment.10
So, unless you see and experience it, you don't really know what to believe. This is why it is critically important to visit the front lines, to speak with the soldiers, to interact with the survivors of occupation, and visit all kinds of places in Ukraine. 11/
Ukraine is large and the war is diverse. Sometimes two villages a couple of miles apart have had very different experiences and now have different attitudes and culture. So, I have learned to be humble and try to learn first from eyewitness to form my own opinion. 12/
4. War can forge you into a better person, tuned into the world's real problems
This one is simple. War makes you a better person because it cleans you of all secondary thoughts and ambitions. The human life, dignity, freedom become key for me. 12/
Now I truly understand the meaning of the human rights. They are not an abstraction for me anymore. Yes, they can be taken away. They can disappear from your life without warning. You can wake up occupied. But human rights must be defended at all costs. 13/
5. Our Ukrainian success hinges on knowledge and continual learning
Russia is powerful, bigger, has a lot of weapons and people willing to fight or too afraid to desert.
So, we need to be smarter, better educated, more tech savvy. We have to deploy technology to win. 14/
And we have to be educated to continue to run our society and economy, during and post war. 15/
6. The harshness and monotony of war quickly become the norm
Before the war I was afraid of the war. I was not sure whether I would behave in a decent way. Would I run away from Ukraine? Would I be afraid to be at the frontlines?
Clearly, people are differently programmed 16/
But what I learned about the fear of war is that it also comes from ignorance, from the loss of control over your life. Over time one get used to the war, one learns how to live through. Humans are amazing at adapting. The war shows it to you. 17/
7. Life's singular purpose is to persist and advance towards victory for Ukraine; all else is secondary.
That's for me. And for most Ukrainians. We want to survive. So, while I miss my academic career in the US and regret that I might not be a good economist as a result of 18/
coming back to Ukraine before the war, I think I have made the right choices as a human. I have one life and I want to liver it true. So, Ukraine must win, and the rest can wait.
Thank you for reading this. I feel we are not alone in this. It will be over one day. X
My main purpose in life is to build KSE university! This is especially important during the war. If you want to support KSE, you can do it here
Hodges: Not the time to take the foot off the gas on Crimea. Pour it on.
The West should help isolate Crimea — knock out bridges, ferries, all ways in and out, make it unusable for Russian forces. Airfields, air defense systems, logistics sites — targeted relentlessly. 1/
Hodges: I was criticized for being too optimistic about Crimea. I was so sure the US and UK would provide what Ukraine needed.
I was wrong — we did not support Ukraine as we should. So here we are now. Ukraine without too much help from us is doing this on their own. 2/
Hodges: When you combine the strategic destruction of oil and gas infrastructure, Russia can't pay for this anymore, with the operational destruction of logistics, at some point Russia will seriously consider stopping.
They can't sustain it at this level deep into next year. 3X
Hodges: This fairy tale about Russians being able to suffer better than anybody, I think that's an absolute fairy tale.
None of the oligarchs are suffering. Nobody in the upper class in Moscow and St. Petersburg is going to suffer. These are people as spoiled as anybody else. 1/
Hodges: The 90% that are not upper class — they're good at suffering because they've never had it any better.
People counting on Russians being able to just endure more and more are misreading the actual situation. People are starting to wonder what the hell's going on. 2/
Hodges: What will really be interesting is whether the Kremlin has to mobilize the population of Moscow or St. Petersburg.
If all the privileged young people suddenly find themselves putting on that green uniform of the Russian army, enthusiasm for this war will really drop. 3X
Russian forces massacred hundreds of civilians in Bucha during a month of occupation in 2022, leaving bodies in the streets and a mass grave by the church.
What happened there is why Ukrainians refuse to give up occupied land in any peace deal — Dominic Pino, Washington Post. 1/
Ukraine retook Bucha so fast that Russian forces could not cover their tracks. The town looks like an American suburb, with stores, sidewalks, and a shopping mall.
It keeps a monument bearing the names of the murdered, where such a town should mourn fallen soldiers. 2/
Russia's account keeps shifting, from denying the murders happened to calling them a false-flag. Ukraine calls it genocide.
Pino has walked Dachau, a site built for genocide. Bucha is different. People there live ordinary lives, send kids to school, and watch TV before bed. 3/
Syrskyi: Putin ordered to calculate options for offensive operations, including from Belarus, to seize Kyiv and other territories.
I do not think Belarus’s leadership will now dare give its territory as a launchpad, but we account for this scenario.
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Syrskyi: Russia is testing forced contract signing in Penza region. Mobile groups gather men and force them to sign.
Moscow is adapting this model to spread it across Russia. They also recruit prisoners, people under criminal cases, and mercenaries to grow the army.
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Syrskyi: Russia’s grouping has not decreased: 722,000 troops with operational reserve.
But active assault directions fell from 13 to 7, with 4 main ones. Our strikes on logistics have cut Russia’s offensive potential. Enemy activity is down by about one-third.
Historian, James Holland: Ukraine can now isolate the battlefield. Anyone that moves gets killed. Supply lines attacked 25-50 miles behind the front — bridges, roads, assembly areas. Deep strikes into Russia's oil.
Putin can have a media blackout. He cannot hide that destruction. 1/
Holland on Crimea: Right now I can't see what will prevent Ukraine from regaining it. They're isolating Crimea — effectively besieged. Russians will have to give it up.
Putin's myth that Crimea has been "forever Russia" is nonsense. It's been Turkish too. It keeps changing hands. 2/
Holland: Putin is fatally wounded by what's happening in Ukraine. That battle is going to be lost for him. But that makes him very dangerous, he might do something to distract from failure.
A village grab in Estonia or Lithuania testing Article 5. Or cutting North Sea cables. 3X