Tymofiy Mylovanov Profile picture
Jul 8, 2023 21 tweets 4 min read Read on X
Day 500 of the Russian war in Ukraine.

I am president of the Kyiv School of Economics, a former minister of economy of Ukraine, and a professor of economics at the University of Pittsburgh. I left the US for Kyiv 4 days before the war.

These are the lessons I learned. 1/
1. We owe our survival to unity and ingenuity
2. Empathy holds more power than rationality.
3. Understanding is out of reach without personal experience
4. War can forge you into a better person, tuned into the world's real problems
2/
5. Our Ukrainian success hinges on knowledge and continual learning
6. The harshness and monotony of war quickly become the norm
7. Life's singular purpose is to persist and advance towards victory for Ukraine; all else is secondary.
3/
Let me expand on each of this points.

1. Unity and ingenuity.

Russia was hoping that a politically polarized Ukrainian society won't be able to provide a quick and unified response to the invasion. They expected that Ukrainians will be slow to react. 4/
And surrender its state and government. After all, in the Russia view, people don't have agency. Russian people are no one for the Kremlin, why should Ukrainians be any different.

But we are. The war has shown unprecedented unity, willpower, and innovation by the Ukrainians 5/
2. Empathy holds more power than rationality.

This one is difficult to explain. Because it is irrational. People sacrifice their lives so that others can survive. On the individual level, to a rational person, educated in the West, or living in Russia, it might not make sense 6/
But when you are in the war, you are not doing careful rational calculus. You are often driven by emotions, a much more powerful motivator. In the case of Ukraine, these are primal emotions. Ukraine has been attacked, people are tortured and killed. 7/
This is the biggest injustice there could be in the world, and it must be corrected. This is what drives people. While it might not be rational, it saves Ukraine and it will ensure our independence and safety from Russia in the future. At the unbelievable high cost of lives 8/
Now I understand that it must be how nations are created and that not any tribe or people could be a nation. Independence and freedom are not free. I just wish fewer people would have to die. 9/
3. Understanding is out of reach without personal experience

The war is covered in fog. Literally and through disinformation. Also, most of our cognitive and learning frameworks that we are humans and societies have developed - fail. They are not adequate for this environment.10
So, unless you see and experience it, you don't really know what to believe. This is why it is critically important to visit the front lines, to speak with the soldiers, to interact with the survivors of occupation, and visit all kinds of places in Ukraine. 11/
Ukraine is large and the war is diverse. Sometimes two villages a couple of miles apart have had very different experiences and now have different attitudes and culture. So, I have learned to be humble and try to learn first from eyewitness to form my own opinion. 12/
4. War can forge you into a better person, tuned into the world's real problems

This one is simple. War makes you a better person because it cleans you of all secondary thoughts and ambitions. The human life, dignity, freedom become key for me. 12/
Now I truly understand the meaning of the human rights. They are not an abstraction for me anymore. Yes, they can be taken away. They can disappear from your life without warning. You can wake up occupied. But human rights must be defended at all costs. 13/
5. Our Ukrainian success hinges on knowledge and continual learning

Russia is powerful, bigger, has a lot of weapons and people willing to fight or too afraid to desert.

So, we need to be smarter, better educated, more tech savvy. We have to deploy technology to win. 14/
And we have to be educated to continue to run our society and economy, during and post war. 15/
6. The harshness and monotony of war quickly become the norm

Before the war I was afraid of the war. I was not sure whether I would behave in a decent way. Would I run away from Ukraine? Would I be afraid to be at the frontlines?

Clearly, people are differently programmed 16/
But what I learned about the fear of war is that it also comes from ignorance, from the loss of control over your life. Over time one get used to the war, one learns how to live through. Humans are amazing at adapting. The war shows it to you. 17/
7. Life's singular purpose is to persist and advance towards victory for Ukraine; all else is secondary.

That's for me. And for most Ukrainians. We want to survive. So, while I miss my academic career in the US and regret that I might not be a good economist as a result of 18/
coming back to Ukraine before the war, I think I have made the right choices as a human. I have one life and I want to liver it true. So, Ukraine must win, and the rest can wait.

Thank you for reading this. I feel we are not alone in this. It will be over one day. X
My main purpose in life is to build KSE university! This is especially important during the war. If you want to support KSE, you can do it here

Thank you so much for your solidarity!foundation.kse.ua

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More from @Mylovanov

Jun 3
Putin could pay a personal price for failure in Ukraine. After four years he has not won, and defeat has ended more than one ruler in the Kremlin.

Russia has now fought longer than the Soviet Union fought Hitler, and this April it lost ground — Gideon Rachman, FT. 1/ Image
The failure already reaches inside Russia. Moscow's main airports close often, mobile internet drops, and assassins have killed generals on the capital's streets.

Ukrainian strikes on Russian oil refineries are pushing fuel prices up across the country. 2/
Anne Keast-Butler, head of Britain's GCHQ: close to 500,000 Russians have died in this war, with many more grievously wounded.

For a country whose population was already shrinking before 2022, those losses cut into its future, not just its army. 3/
Read 11 tweets
Jun 2
Commander of Ukraine's 3rd Corps Biletsky: Russia runs short on manpower — you feel it every month.

The meat waves that were normal 7-8 months ago are gone, even at the hottest sections of the front. And Ukraine now dominates the air — from the first trench to 200km deep.

1/
Biletsky: Russia failed winter, failed spring. In May they captured roughly 10km² — Ukraine gained more.

When you can't win on the battlefield, you terrorize women and children. The tactical shift is happening right now.

2/
Biletsky: In 6-7 months Russia loses tactically on the ground.

Their answer: terror strikes on Ukrainian cities, new drone volumes to overwhelm air defense. Against drones alone, Ukraine can reach 100% interception.

3/
Read 7 tweets
Jun 2
Ukraine was supposed to have “no cards.” Now Putin is trapped in “zugzwang”.

Russia captured only 0.04% of Ukraine this year, lost territory in Apr, cut the Victory Day parade to 45 minutes, and now fears Ukrainian drones near Moscow, George Will for the WP. 1/ Image
Zelenskyy turned Putin’s main war ritual into a security problem.

Ukraine “permitted” the May 9 parade by not striking Red Square, while fewer troops and vehicles appeared because Moscow feared drone attacks on staging areas. 2/
Russia’s battlefield gains now cost absurd amounts of manpower.

Putin’s troops can spend weeks losing hundreds of fighting-age men to seize patches of land the size of the National Mall. 3/
Read 11 tweets
Jun 2
Sergei Magnitsky exposed a $200M Russian state tax fraud and was beaten to death in a Moscow prison in 2009.

His friend Jamison Firestone, who helped campaign for the Magnitsky Act, tells The Times the only way to beat Putin is to hand frozen Russian assets to Ukraine.

1/ Image
The fraud: acquire companies that already paid large taxes, fabricate losses on paper, claim the taxes back as rebates.

When Magnitsky exposed it, authorities arrested him instead of the implicated officials.

2/
Magnitsky spent almost a year in detention. His eight-year-old son waited for a phone call.

The authorities waited exactly 30 days — the legal limit — before sending formal refusals to his written requests.

3/
Read 7 tweets
Jun 2
Blumenthal: Ukraine can win this war — if it has air defense interceptors to stop drones and hypersonic missiles.

Americans should understand: drone warfare technology advances at an astronomical pace. We learn from Ukraine as much as we help it.

1/
Blumenthal: The only way to get Putin to the table is strength. Interceptors, F-16s, long-range artillery.

Sanctions that choke his revenue. Show the US stands with Ukraine long term. That's how you get peace — not by going weak.

2/
Blumenthal: Interceptors flow to Ukraine — but not in the numbers needed. Increasing them before November is feasible.

Trump's primary fights aren't about Ukraine. They're about personal revenge. The bipartisan case for Ukraine is stronger than that.

3X
Read 5 tweets
Jun 1
Russia's war spending can exceed its budget by at least $28 billion this year. In a worst-case scenario — $56 billion over.

The Finance Ministry asked the cabinet to freeze $40 billion of planned civilian spending through 2028 to cover the shortfall, FT.

1/ Image
Russia allocated $238 billion, nearly 40% of this year's entire budget, to defence and security. Still not enough.

In the first four months of 2026, Russia's deficit already hit 2.5% of GDP — the largest since the full-scale invasion began.

2/
Finance Minister Siluanov: "Our reserves are not endless. We can't allow any weak points in our finances while such major transformations are going on in the world."

The economy ministry cut its 2026 growth forecast to just 0.4%.

3/
Read 6 tweets

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