I am president of the Kyiv School of Economics, a former minister of economy of Ukraine, and a professor of economics at the University of Pittsburgh. I left the US for Kyiv 4 days before the war.
These are the lessons I learned. 1/
1. We owe our survival to unity and ingenuity 2. Empathy holds more power than rationality. 3. Understanding is out of reach without personal experience 4. War can forge you into a better person, tuned into the world's real problems
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5. Our Ukrainian success hinges on knowledge and continual learning 6. The harshness and monotony of war quickly become the norm 7. Life's singular purpose is to persist and advance towards victory for Ukraine; all else is secondary.
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Let me expand on each of this points.
1. Unity and ingenuity.
Russia was hoping that a politically polarized Ukrainian society won't be able to provide a quick and unified response to the invasion. They expected that Ukrainians will be slow to react. 4/
And surrender its state and government. After all, in the Russia view, people don't have agency. Russian people are no one for the Kremlin, why should Ukrainians be any different.
But we are. The war has shown unprecedented unity, willpower, and innovation by the Ukrainians 5/
2. Empathy holds more power than rationality.
This one is difficult to explain. Because it is irrational. People sacrifice their lives so that others can survive. On the individual level, to a rational person, educated in the West, or living in Russia, it might not make sense 6/
But when you are in the war, you are not doing careful rational calculus. You are often driven by emotions, a much more powerful motivator. In the case of Ukraine, these are primal emotions. Ukraine has been attacked, people are tortured and killed. 7/
This is the biggest injustice there could be in the world, and it must be corrected. This is what drives people. While it might not be rational, it saves Ukraine and it will ensure our independence and safety from Russia in the future. At the unbelievable high cost of lives 8/
Now I understand that it must be how nations are created and that not any tribe or people could be a nation. Independence and freedom are not free. I just wish fewer people would have to die. 9/
3. Understanding is out of reach without personal experience
The war is covered in fog. Literally and through disinformation. Also, most of our cognitive and learning frameworks that we are humans and societies have developed - fail. They are not adequate for this environment.10
So, unless you see and experience it, you don't really know what to believe. This is why it is critically important to visit the front lines, to speak with the soldiers, to interact with the survivors of occupation, and visit all kinds of places in Ukraine. 11/
Ukraine is large and the war is diverse. Sometimes two villages a couple of miles apart have had very different experiences and now have different attitudes and culture. So, I have learned to be humble and try to learn first from eyewitness to form my own opinion. 12/
4. War can forge you into a better person, tuned into the world's real problems
This one is simple. War makes you a better person because it cleans you of all secondary thoughts and ambitions. The human life, dignity, freedom become key for me. 12/
Now I truly understand the meaning of the human rights. They are not an abstraction for me anymore. Yes, they can be taken away. They can disappear from your life without warning. You can wake up occupied. But human rights must be defended at all costs. 13/
5. Our Ukrainian success hinges on knowledge and continual learning
Russia is powerful, bigger, has a lot of weapons and people willing to fight or too afraid to desert.
So, we need to be smarter, better educated, more tech savvy. We have to deploy technology to win. 14/
And we have to be educated to continue to run our society and economy, during and post war. 15/
6. The harshness and monotony of war quickly become the norm
Before the war I was afraid of the war. I was not sure whether I would behave in a decent way. Would I run away from Ukraine? Would I be afraid to be at the frontlines?
Clearly, people are differently programmed 16/
But what I learned about the fear of war is that it also comes from ignorance, from the loss of control over your life. Over time one get used to the war, one learns how to live through. Humans are amazing at adapting. The war shows it to you. 17/
7. Life's singular purpose is to persist and advance towards victory for Ukraine; all else is secondary.
That's for me. And for most Ukrainians. We want to survive. So, while I miss my academic career in the US and regret that I might not be a good economist as a result of 18/
coming back to Ukraine before the war, I think I have made the right choices as a human. I have one life and I want to liver it true. So, Ukraine must win, and the rest can wait.
Thank you for reading this. I feel we are not alone in this. It will be over one day. X
My main purpose in life is to build KSE university! This is especially important during the war. If you want to support KSE, you can do it here
Petraeus: The U.S. is in a strategic cul-de-sac with Iran. Any route out has downsides.
Iran has been badly weakened militarily, but it still has drones, missiles, fast boats and the ability to create serious problems in the Gulf and Strait of Hormuz. 1/
Petraeus: The challenge is restoring freedom of navigation through Hormuz without giving Iran authority to charge tolls or navigation fees.
While still dealing with enriched uranium, sanctions, proxies and the future of Iran’s nuclear program. 2/
Petraeus: Tehran appears to believe Trump has less staying power than Iran does.
Iran does not face midterms, an affordability agenda or fear of losing the House. Trump needs a deal, and the regime seems to understand that leverage. 3X
Putin faces a succession crisis in Chechnya that could erupt into a new war inside Russia, draining troops and money he needs for Ukraine — Christian Caryl, Foreign Policy.
The region's ruler Ramzan Kadyrov, 49, is probably terminally ill, and his heir is his 18-year-old son. 1/
Putin built his presidency by crushing Chechen rebels in the late 1990s, then made a deal with Akhmad Kadyrov. Kadyrov suppressed the insurgency and accepted Moscow's rule, and in return ran Chechnya as he pleased.
A bomb killed Akhmad in 2004. Power passed to his son Ramzan. 2/
That autonomy runs on Russian cash. Moscow transfers $3.8 billion to Chechnya every year, about 92 percent of the republic's entire budget.
Kadyrov treats the money as a personal slush fund and spends it on whim, paying for a lavish lifestyle and a private security force. 3/
Ukraine’s Ambassador to the US, Stefanishyna: If Russia had any real desire to negotiate or compromise, there would be zero obstacles.
Ukraine has shown openness and flexibility in every format proposed, including by President Trump. The aggressor never had real intent. 1/
Stefanishyna: Ukraine’s capabilities are now seen and felt by Russia on its own territory.
They deprive Moscow of the ability to attack Ukrainian cities and kill more families. That pressure is one reason Putin is being forced back toward the option of dialogue. 2/
Stefanishyna: Ukraine is depriving Russia of the fuel of war, literally fuel, but also the resources Moscow gains from selling products abroad and using sanctions waivers to finance aggression.
Deep strikes cut the money and capabilities that keep Russia’s war going. 3/
Gen. Wesley Clark: Putin is trapped. He sees no way out that preserves his survival as Russia’s leader, so he keeps pushing and hopes Trump’s friendship, Chinese help, Iranian help and U.S. distraction will cut support to Ukraine until Ukraine somehow collapses. 1/
Clark: Putin really believed he could seize Kyiv, capture Zelenskyy, shoot him in the street and take over, despite 10 years of war already showing Ukraine’s resistance.
He did not understand the spirit of Ukraine and was blinded by his own desire. 2/
Clark: Putin is not a military leader. He is an intelligence man. Stalin knew armies, fear and losses from war.
Putin knows war from books, but he does not know it. That matters when fantasy meets a battlefield that refuses to obey. 3/
Even some of Russia’s most prominent hawks are starting to say publicly that Russia cannot win this war.
The debate inside Russia is no longer how to achieve victory in Ukraine. It is whether victory is still possible at all, WSJ. 1/
Oleg Tsaryov was supposed to become the Kremlin’s man in Kyiv after Russia captured the Ukrainian capital in 2022.
Now he says Russian propaganda created an illusion of inevitable victory that is colliding with reality “in the most painful form.” 2/
Aleksey Chadaev, a former Kremlin official who runs a drone warfare research center, warns the current course leads “not just to non-victory, but to full-scale defeat.”
Khrushcheva, great-granddaughter of Soviet leader:
There's no [Ukraine] deal because Putin wants what he wants.
Trump likes strongmen, so Putin thought he could milk it. In Anchorage last August Trump probably said he'd push Zelenskyy out of Donbas. He couldn't deliver. 1/
Khrushcheva: Putin thinks history will favor him — that's why he pushes for Donbas, a promise he must keep.
But most Russians don't care and didn't want this war, only 20–25% did. They call it a special military operation, but an operation can't last 4.5 years. 2/
Khrushcheva: Putin is not in a good position now. He had a great chance to end the war with Trump from March to August, who gave him every opportunity.
He could have been a victor if he didn't want as much. I'm not sure he goes into history as Peter the Great. 3/