Tymofiy Mylovanov Profile picture
Jul 8, 2023 21 tweets 4 min read Read on X
Day 500 of the Russian war in Ukraine.

I am president of the Kyiv School of Economics, a former minister of economy of Ukraine, and a professor of economics at the University of Pittsburgh. I left the US for Kyiv 4 days before the war.

These are the lessons I learned. 1/
1. We owe our survival to unity and ingenuity
2. Empathy holds more power than rationality.
3. Understanding is out of reach without personal experience
4. War can forge you into a better person, tuned into the world's real problems
2/
5. Our Ukrainian success hinges on knowledge and continual learning
6. The harshness and monotony of war quickly become the norm
7. Life's singular purpose is to persist and advance towards victory for Ukraine; all else is secondary.
3/
Let me expand on each of this points.

1. Unity and ingenuity.

Russia was hoping that a politically polarized Ukrainian society won't be able to provide a quick and unified response to the invasion. They expected that Ukrainians will be slow to react. 4/
And surrender its state and government. After all, in the Russia view, people don't have agency. Russian people are no one for the Kremlin, why should Ukrainians be any different.

But we are. The war has shown unprecedented unity, willpower, and innovation by the Ukrainians 5/
2. Empathy holds more power than rationality.

This one is difficult to explain. Because it is irrational. People sacrifice their lives so that others can survive. On the individual level, to a rational person, educated in the West, or living in Russia, it might not make sense 6/
But when you are in the war, you are not doing careful rational calculus. You are often driven by emotions, a much more powerful motivator. In the case of Ukraine, these are primal emotions. Ukraine has been attacked, people are tortured and killed. 7/
This is the biggest injustice there could be in the world, and it must be corrected. This is what drives people. While it might not be rational, it saves Ukraine and it will ensure our independence and safety from Russia in the future. At the unbelievable high cost of lives 8/
Now I understand that it must be how nations are created and that not any tribe or people could be a nation. Independence and freedom are not free. I just wish fewer people would have to die. 9/
3. Understanding is out of reach without personal experience

The war is covered in fog. Literally and through disinformation. Also, most of our cognitive and learning frameworks that we are humans and societies have developed - fail. They are not adequate for this environment.10
So, unless you see and experience it, you don't really know what to believe. This is why it is critically important to visit the front lines, to speak with the soldiers, to interact with the survivors of occupation, and visit all kinds of places in Ukraine. 11/
Ukraine is large and the war is diverse. Sometimes two villages a couple of miles apart have had very different experiences and now have different attitudes and culture. So, I have learned to be humble and try to learn first from eyewitness to form my own opinion. 12/
4. War can forge you into a better person, tuned into the world's real problems

This one is simple. War makes you a better person because it cleans you of all secondary thoughts and ambitions. The human life, dignity, freedom become key for me. 12/
Now I truly understand the meaning of the human rights. They are not an abstraction for me anymore. Yes, they can be taken away. They can disappear from your life without warning. You can wake up occupied. But human rights must be defended at all costs. 13/
5. Our Ukrainian success hinges on knowledge and continual learning

Russia is powerful, bigger, has a lot of weapons and people willing to fight or too afraid to desert.

So, we need to be smarter, better educated, more tech savvy. We have to deploy technology to win. 14/
And we have to be educated to continue to run our society and economy, during and post war. 15/
6. The harshness and monotony of war quickly become the norm

Before the war I was afraid of the war. I was not sure whether I would behave in a decent way. Would I run away from Ukraine? Would I be afraid to be at the frontlines?

Clearly, people are differently programmed 16/
But what I learned about the fear of war is that it also comes from ignorance, from the loss of control over your life. Over time one get used to the war, one learns how to live through. Humans are amazing at adapting. The war shows it to you. 17/
7. Life's singular purpose is to persist and advance towards victory for Ukraine; all else is secondary.

That's for me. And for most Ukrainians. We want to survive. So, while I miss my academic career in the US and regret that I might not be a good economist as a result of 18/
coming back to Ukraine before the war, I think I have made the right choices as a human. I have one life and I want to liver it true. So, Ukraine must win, and the rest can wait.

Thank you for reading this. I feel we are not alone in this. It will be over one day. X
My main purpose in life is to build KSE university! This is especially important during the war. If you want to support KSE, you can do it here

Thank you so much for your solidarity!foundation.kse.ua

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More from @Mylovanov

May 28
Bolton: Ukraine now has the best army in Europe, better than any NATO member there except the U.S.

It has enormous combat experience and has developed drone and counter-drone technology that America should use, learn from, and take advantage of. 1/
Bolton: Ukrainians have brought Russia to a halt. Putin does not get serious about negotiations until Russian forces are really moving backward.

If you want to defeat aggression and tell others it is not in their interest, Ukraine is the model. 2/
Bolton: Ukrainians are a moral example for the world.

A free people, largely abandoned, confronted one of the world’s largest armies and refused to give in. Congress should be unabashedly pro-Ukraine — it is a tragedy America is not doing more. 3X
Read 5 tweets
May 28
Bolton: Trump is driven mainly by gasoline prices, not any coherent analysis of U.S. strategic interests.

Iran poses nuclear, terrorist and world-economy extortion threats — and the only real answer is eliminating the regime. If you don’t know where you’re going, any road will do. 1/
Bolton: Open the Strait militarily, keep the blockade on Iran, do not let Iranian oil out, and get as much Arab oil into global markets as possible.

That would show the U.S. can secure commerce, ease the threat to the world economy, and keep starving Iran. 2/
Bolton: Iran’s missile caves and storage sites are being opened again. Since Tehran has been gracious enough to reopen them, that is the reason to go back in and finish the job.

Every day that passes makes opening Hormuz and suppressing Iran harder. 3/
Read 7 tweets
May 28
Kellogg: Trump may not have anyone in Iran who can make hard decisions.

Khamenei is supposed to decide, but we have not seen him and do not know if he is alive or coherent. So who do you really talk to when the hard decisions are left to him? 1/
Kellogg: Iran is following its Mosaic plan: decentralizing the Revolutionary Guards so each unit commands its own area.

That is why boats are being sent into the Gulf. Trump is in their heads, but the regime still thinks it is winning — which is nuts. 2/
Kellogg: Trump has to keep military operations in his hand.

The U.S. has hammered Iran hard — sunk its navy and defeated most defensive systems — but as long as the theocratic leadership remains, it will fight with crossbows, rifles and rocks. 3/
Read 7 tweets
May 28
Bolton: Ukraine’s ability to strike deep inside Russia and destroy much of the Black Sea Fleet caught Moscow totally unprepared.

When Russians hear targets are hit near Moscow and at deep military bases, they see the war is not going according to plan. 1/
Bolton: Russia may be trying to justify new strikes on Kyiv and other Ukrainian cities, but the battlefield is at least at a standstill — and Ukraine is beginning to make small territorial gains.

It may be Russian forces that are about to crack, not Ukraine’s. 2/
Bolton: Putin will not be serious about negotiations until Russian forces are in retreat.

As long as he is advancing, he can tell Russians this is about rebuilding the empire. Once he starts losing, pent-up discontent inside Russia can begin to surface. 3/
Read 6 tweets
May 28
Moscow wants Europe and U.S. to think it can escalate war further — NYT.
Russia is threatening Kyiv with “sustained strikes” because the battlefield is slowing against them.

[Ukrainian drones hit oil infrastructure and Russian cities daily. Drones turns every advance into a meat grinder] 1/Image
Russia followed its biggest strikes on Kyiv with warnings about attacks on “decision-making centers” and calls for diplomats to leave the city — psychological warfare. 2/
The Kremlin claims its patience was “exhausted” after a strike on a dormitory in occupied Luhansk. Moscow is using the incident to justify tougher attacks and escalation rhetoric. 3/
Read 12 tweets
May 28
Zelenskyy: Gripen fighters with Meteor missiles — 200km+ range.

We believe we can push Russian aircraft back far enough to stop their mass use of guided bombs against us.

1/
Zelenskyy: First Gripens arrive in 10 months. Pilots start training now.

The challenge: our pilots are already flying combat missions in Ukrainian skies. We need to pull them out to train — and that's never easy during a war.

2/
Zelenskyy: Ukraine has the world's greatest experience protecting lives, infrastructure, energy, schools.

No one else has this — we'll share it. Gripens, interceptor drones, EW, aviation, helicopters. Land, air, sea. That's a modern air defense shield.

3X
Read 5 tweets

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