Tymofiy Mylovanov Profile picture
Jul 8, 2023 21 tweets 4 min read Read on X
Day 500 of the Russian war in Ukraine.

I am president of the Kyiv School of Economics, a former minister of economy of Ukraine, and a professor of economics at the University of Pittsburgh. I left the US for Kyiv 4 days before the war.

These are the lessons I learned. 1/
1. We owe our survival to unity and ingenuity
2. Empathy holds more power than rationality.
3. Understanding is out of reach without personal experience
4. War can forge you into a better person, tuned into the world's real problems
2/
5. Our Ukrainian success hinges on knowledge and continual learning
6. The harshness and monotony of war quickly become the norm
7. Life's singular purpose is to persist and advance towards victory for Ukraine; all else is secondary.
3/
Let me expand on each of this points.

1. Unity and ingenuity.

Russia was hoping that a politically polarized Ukrainian society won't be able to provide a quick and unified response to the invasion. They expected that Ukrainians will be slow to react. 4/
And surrender its state and government. After all, in the Russia view, people don't have agency. Russian people are no one for the Kremlin, why should Ukrainians be any different.

But we are. The war has shown unprecedented unity, willpower, and innovation by the Ukrainians 5/
2. Empathy holds more power than rationality.

This one is difficult to explain. Because it is irrational. People sacrifice their lives so that others can survive. On the individual level, to a rational person, educated in the West, or living in Russia, it might not make sense 6/
But when you are in the war, you are not doing careful rational calculus. You are often driven by emotions, a much more powerful motivator. In the case of Ukraine, these are primal emotions. Ukraine has been attacked, people are tortured and killed. 7/
This is the biggest injustice there could be in the world, and it must be corrected. This is what drives people. While it might not be rational, it saves Ukraine and it will ensure our independence and safety from Russia in the future. At the unbelievable high cost of lives 8/
Now I understand that it must be how nations are created and that not any tribe or people could be a nation. Independence and freedom are not free. I just wish fewer people would have to die. 9/
3. Understanding is out of reach without personal experience

The war is covered in fog. Literally and through disinformation. Also, most of our cognitive and learning frameworks that we are humans and societies have developed - fail. They are not adequate for this environment.10
So, unless you see and experience it, you don't really know what to believe. This is why it is critically important to visit the front lines, to speak with the soldiers, to interact with the survivors of occupation, and visit all kinds of places in Ukraine. 11/
Ukraine is large and the war is diverse. Sometimes two villages a couple of miles apart have had very different experiences and now have different attitudes and culture. So, I have learned to be humble and try to learn first from eyewitness to form my own opinion. 12/
4. War can forge you into a better person, tuned into the world's real problems

This one is simple. War makes you a better person because it cleans you of all secondary thoughts and ambitions. The human life, dignity, freedom become key for me. 12/
Now I truly understand the meaning of the human rights. They are not an abstraction for me anymore. Yes, they can be taken away. They can disappear from your life without warning. You can wake up occupied. But human rights must be defended at all costs. 13/
5. Our Ukrainian success hinges on knowledge and continual learning

Russia is powerful, bigger, has a lot of weapons and people willing to fight or too afraid to desert.

So, we need to be smarter, better educated, more tech savvy. We have to deploy technology to win. 14/
And we have to be educated to continue to run our society and economy, during and post war. 15/
6. The harshness and monotony of war quickly become the norm

Before the war I was afraid of the war. I was not sure whether I would behave in a decent way. Would I run away from Ukraine? Would I be afraid to be at the frontlines?

Clearly, people are differently programmed 16/
But what I learned about the fear of war is that it also comes from ignorance, from the loss of control over your life. Over time one get used to the war, one learns how to live through. Humans are amazing at adapting. The war shows it to you. 17/
7. Life's singular purpose is to persist and advance towards victory for Ukraine; all else is secondary.

That's for me. And for most Ukrainians. We want to survive. So, while I miss my academic career in the US and regret that I might not be a good economist as a result of 18/
coming back to Ukraine before the war, I think I have made the right choices as a human. I have one life and I want to liver it true. So, Ukraine must win, and the rest can wait.

Thank you for reading this. I feel we are not alone in this. It will be over one day. X
My main purpose in life is to build KSE university! This is especially important during the war. If you want to support KSE, you can do it here

Thank you so much for your solidarity!foundation.kse.ua

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More from @Mylovanov

Apr 21
The IMF stopped forecasting the global economy. Instead it offered a "reference scenario" and darker alternatives.

The cause is not Iran. Washington is dismantling the three systems that kept American power cheap: NATO, the dollar, free trade — Clive Crook, Bloomberg. 1/ Image
Europe is already preparing. The EU is testing NATO-style defense guarantees designed to work without Washington.

Confidence in the alliance has fallen sharply over the past year — and it is rebuilding the architecture accordingly. 2/
On defense: Europe will spend more than its NATO fair share would have required.

The US will spend more too — its global security interests need allies. Washington was furious when European partners refused to help force open the Strait of Hormuz. 3/
Read 8 tweets
Apr 21
Applebaum: Trump does not think strategically and does not have an endgame.

He began the war without clear goals, never asked the American people, never spoke to Congress, and assumed it would be some kind of two-day operation that would end fast. 1/
Applebaum: Trump did not think through the second and third-order consequences — oil, the world economy, other Middle Eastern states.

He even seemed surprised Iran could use drones against the Gulf states. If he heard warnings, he did not absorb them. 2/
Applebaum: When an American plane went down in Iran, Trump’s fear was not for the pilot, the crew member, or the soldiers.

It was for himself and his reputation. That is why his presence unnerved people in the room making the actual rescue decisions. 3/
Read 7 tweets
Apr 20
Snyder: We'e normalizing a world where one country tries to wipe out another nation. Americans have a hard time understanding that we're losing this war and are not in a position to tell Iranians what to do. No amount of targeting civilian infrastructure is going to change that. 1/
Snyder: Orban stood between Putin and Trump. Orban was the European who legitimated international networks of ideas, of personal contacts and of money. The American right, especially MAGA, is much more cosmopolitan and international than people realize. 2/
Snyder: Orban formula was the Trump formula. Be an oligarch, have oligarchs around you, divert tax money and EU money to you and your friends. Give people an enemy. If you make the connection between corruption at the top and the failure of the economy, then you can win huge. 3X
Read 5 tweets
Apr 20
Druzhba pipeline may restart tomorrow. That would remove the condition Hungary set for releasing the EU’s €90B loan to Ukraine — Bloomberg

EU leaders approved it in Dec, but Orban blocked disbursement and tied the cash to resuming oil flows to Hungary and Slovakia. 1/ Image
Russian strikes damaged the pipeline in Jan. People familiar with the matter say Ukraine will run technical tests Tuesday.

Hungary’s outgoing government signaled Sunday it will lift the block and support the financing as soon as this week if shipments restart. 2/
Ukraine needs the funds to keep fighting as US assistance has effectively ended since Trump returned in 2025.

Ukraine has enough money only until June. Slovakia also signaled it won’t disrupt EU unity on the loan after earlier threats by PM Fico. 3X
Read 5 tweets
Apr 20
Bolton: Iranian negotiators smell the panic in the White House.

I think they concede Trump wants out of this. He's broadcasting it almost every day. It gives the Iranians enormous leverage. 1/
Bolton: Iran should not make a nickel off of its oil as long as this conflict goes on.

The next step has to be the US and Israel opening the strait to ships from the Gulf Arab states. Iran blocking it on and off is unacceptable. 2/
Bolton: There's no way that Iran should come away with the lesson that they can close the strait anytime they want.

They need to learn the exact opposite lesson, that they better not try it again. That's how you restore deterrence. 3X
Read 5 tweets
Apr 20
A Russian FPV tore her arm, scarred her face, and took 45–50% of her hearing.

Yana “Multyk” Zalevska is 25. On the fourth day after waking up, she said: “Fix my ears. I’m coming back.” 1/ Image
She met full-scale war at home in Kherson. Russians shelled apartment blocks, terrorized civilians, took people prisoner.

She joined the first anti-Russian rallies. Before enlisting, she wrote a will to her mother. “I have a small daughter. You have to think ahead.” 2/
Yana first fought for Kherson with the assault group Rukh as a combat medic. By late 2022 she was in Donbas.

One unit refused her: “A child, a girl, you came here for money.” The 59th said yes. “Come if you want.” She went. 3/
Read 10 tweets

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