Tymofiy Mylovanov Profile picture
Jul 8, 2023 21 tweets 4 min read Read on X
Day 500 of the Russian war in Ukraine.

I am president of the Kyiv School of Economics, a former minister of economy of Ukraine, and a professor of economics at the University of Pittsburgh. I left the US for Kyiv 4 days before the war.

These are the lessons I learned. 1/
1. We owe our survival to unity and ingenuity
2. Empathy holds more power than rationality.
3. Understanding is out of reach without personal experience
4. War can forge you into a better person, tuned into the world's real problems
2/
5. Our Ukrainian success hinges on knowledge and continual learning
6. The harshness and monotony of war quickly become the norm
7. Life's singular purpose is to persist and advance towards victory for Ukraine; all else is secondary.
3/
Let me expand on each of this points.

1. Unity and ingenuity.

Russia was hoping that a politically polarized Ukrainian society won't be able to provide a quick and unified response to the invasion. They expected that Ukrainians will be slow to react. 4/
And surrender its state and government. After all, in the Russia view, people don't have agency. Russian people are no one for the Kremlin, why should Ukrainians be any different.

But we are. The war has shown unprecedented unity, willpower, and innovation by the Ukrainians 5/
2. Empathy holds more power than rationality.

This one is difficult to explain. Because it is irrational. People sacrifice their lives so that others can survive. On the individual level, to a rational person, educated in the West, or living in Russia, it might not make sense 6/
But when you are in the war, you are not doing careful rational calculus. You are often driven by emotions, a much more powerful motivator. In the case of Ukraine, these are primal emotions. Ukraine has been attacked, people are tortured and killed. 7/
This is the biggest injustice there could be in the world, and it must be corrected. This is what drives people. While it might not be rational, it saves Ukraine and it will ensure our independence and safety from Russia in the future. At the unbelievable high cost of lives 8/
Now I understand that it must be how nations are created and that not any tribe or people could be a nation. Independence and freedom are not free. I just wish fewer people would have to die. 9/
3. Understanding is out of reach without personal experience

The war is covered in fog. Literally and through disinformation. Also, most of our cognitive and learning frameworks that we are humans and societies have developed - fail. They are not adequate for this environment.10
So, unless you see and experience it, you don't really know what to believe. This is why it is critically important to visit the front lines, to speak with the soldiers, to interact with the survivors of occupation, and visit all kinds of places in Ukraine. 11/
Ukraine is large and the war is diverse. Sometimes two villages a couple of miles apart have had very different experiences and now have different attitudes and culture. So, I have learned to be humble and try to learn first from eyewitness to form my own opinion. 12/
4. War can forge you into a better person, tuned into the world's real problems

This one is simple. War makes you a better person because it cleans you of all secondary thoughts and ambitions. The human life, dignity, freedom become key for me. 12/
Now I truly understand the meaning of the human rights. They are not an abstraction for me anymore. Yes, they can be taken away. They can disappear from your life without warning. You can wake up occupied. But human rights must be defended at all costs. 13/
5. Our Ukrainian success hinges on knowledge and continual learning

Russia is powerful, bigger, has a lot of weapons and people willing to fight or too afraid to desert.

So, we need to be smarter, better educated, more tech savvy. We have to deploy technology to win. 14/
And we have to be educated to continue to run our society and economy, during and post war. 15/
6. The harshness and monotony of war quickly become the norm

Before the war I was afraid of the war. I was not sure whether I would behave in a decent way. Would I run away from Ukraine? Would I be afraid to be at the frontlines?

Clearly, people are differently programmed 16/
But what I learned about the fear of war is that it also comes from ignorance, from the loss of control over your life. Over time one get used to the war, one learns how to live through. Humans are amazing at adapting. The war shows it to you. 17/
7. Life's singular purpose is to persist and advance towards victory for Ukraine; all else is secondary.

That's for me. And for most Ukrainians. We want to survive. So, while I miss my academic career in the US and regret that I might not be a good economist as a result of 18/
coming back to Ukraine before the war, I think I have made the right choices as a human. I have one life and I want to liver it true. So, Ukraine must win, and the rest can wait.

Thank you for reading this. I feel we are not alone in this. It will be over one day. X
My main purpose in life is to build KSE university! This is especially important during the war. If you want to support KSE, you can do it here

Thank you so much for your solidarity!foundation.kse.ua

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More from @Mylovanov

Feb 26
I’ve seen the drafts of the deal before it went public

It has shifted from a cash grab - “pay us $500 billion for past and 200% repayment on future aid” - to joint investment and co-ownership

But no security guarantees

Ukraine should sign, but It is getting screwed 1/ Image
FT: Ukraine agreed to a minerals deal with the US after Washington dropped demands for $500 billion in potential revenue

The deal is a transactional arrangement that gives Trump leverage over Ukraine’s economic future while sidestepping any firm US security commitments 2/
FT: The final agreement establishes a fund where Ukraine contributes 50% of proceeds from "future monetization" of state-owned mineral resources 3/
Read 10 tweets
Feb 25
I told CNN how Ukrainians see the U.S. now - something shifted. It’s no longer frustration or disappointment. It’s a raw, unfiltered sense of betrayal.

CNN: Before the invasion, many didn't believe in it. Is this happening again with a potential U.S. betrayal?

Me: The mood in Kyiv is that we have been sold out [by Trump].
I disagree with that. But, after the UN vote, I am not sure anymore.

The U.S. didn’t have to oppose the resolution—it could have abstained like China. Instead, it openly sided with Russia.
1/
CNN: Trump says Russia wants peace - but on its terms. Can any deal work without U.S. security guarantees?

Me: Russia won’t take any deal seriously without a U.S. commitment to enforcement.

It ignores Europe and will test any security guarantee. Ukraine’s bigger worry?

The rhetoric by Witkoff that the Istanbul Agreements will be the framework.

They required disarmament not just neutrality. That’s a non-starter. Peace may have no real path.
2/
CNN: Trump’s attacks may be tactics, but after the U.S. backed Russia at the UN, can his deal really favor Ukraine?

Me: The idea that Trump is posturing was believable before.

But this UN vote definitely put it in doubt. There is definitely a theory that Trump is trying to flatter Putin.

Some people put it privately to me, before punching, Trump has to get the opponent off guard.

But now I think it is much less likely.
3/
Read 5 tweets
Feb 25
China - next!

The EU is offering Ukraine a critical materials deal. If it’s serious, Ukraine could walk away from the U.S. offer. Unlike Washington, Brussels and London back Ukraine on security, and are willing to increase their support 1/ Image
If this is a coordinated message to the U.S., it signals a bolder, more assertive EU and aligns Ukraine with the EU firmly

The EU, I hear, start looking for ways to engage China, without the U.S. 2/
At the very least, I think, the EU should be buying some weapons or its inputs from China not the US.

The U.S. won’t benefit, the EU will get more for its every Euro, and becomes more diversified. 3/
Read 4 tweets
Feb 25
The world order has collapsed

Yesterday was a historically terrible day - the U.S. aligned with Russia against Ukraine’s resolution at the UN, Trump spoke about his deal with Russia, and the messaging from Putin and Trump’s team became even more synchronized: 1/ Image
Both the U.S. and Russia question President Zelensky’s legitimacy, frame Ukraine as a provocation for war, and absolve Russia of aggression

Not a good world, not a lot of promise for a safe a prosperous European future 2/
So I thought about what to do

Work. Victory or defeat is the sum of actions taken over years, even decades.

So, I’m going to the U.S. to secure more funding for the Kyiv School of Economics, particularly for economic, security, and foreign policy analysis 3/
Read 7 tweets
Feb 24
Putin joins the rare earth metals rush!

Putin:

Russia would be willing to offer the U.S. a deal on rare earth metals

Russia has more rare earth metals than Ukraine 1/
Putin: Zelensky stands in the way of peace that Russia and the U.S. want to achieve in Ukraine

(He is serious! Zelensky gets in the way of carving up Ukraine. Ukrainians too) 2/
Putin: Zelensky’s rating is exactly half that of Zaluzhny.

(I guess, it is 8%, the double of 4%. But seriously the approval rating of Zelensky is 50-60% depending on the poll, and he has the lead in the election polling after Trump’s attacks) 3/
Read 7 tweets
Feb 24
For the first time, Trump’s press conference was dull. Even Macron, who tried correcting him, barely put in the effort.

Has he lost his magic?

Trump: Zelensky will visit to sign the deal, a similar deal with Russia, Zelensky’s a dictator, Putin not, we want our $350B back 1/
Trump: there will be a rare-earth deal with Russia, too! 2/
Trump: We could stop the war within weeks 3/
Read 13 tweets

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