Tymofiy Mylovanov Profile picture
Jul 8, 2023 21 tweets 4 min read Read on X
Day 500 of the Russian war in Ukraine.

I am president of the Kyiv School of Economics, a former minister of economy of Ukraine, and a professor of economics at the University of Pittsburgh. I left the US for Kyiv 4 days before the war.

These are the lessons I learned. 1/
1. We owe our survival to unity and ingenuity
2. Empathy holds more power than rationality.
3. Understanding is out of reach without personal experience
4. War can forge you into a better person, tuned into the world's real problems
2/
5. Our Ukrainian success hinges on knowledge and continual learning
6. The harshness and monotony of war quickly become the norm
7. Life's singular purpose is to persist and advance towards victory for Ukraine; all else is secondary.
3/
Let me expand on each of this points.

1. Unity and ingenuity.

Russia was hoping that a politically polarized Ukrainian society won't be able to provide a quick and unified response to the invasion. They expected that Ukrainians will be slow to react. 4/
And surrender its state and government. After all, in the Russia view, people don't have agency. Russian people are no one for the Kremlin, why should Ukrainians be any different.

But we are. The war has shown unprecedented unity, willpower, and innovation by the Ukrainians 5/
2. Empathy holds more power than rationality.

This one is difficult to explain. Because it is irrational. People sacrifice their lives so that others can survive. On the individual level, to a rational person, educated in the West, or living in Russia, it might not make sense 6/
But when you are in the war, you are not doing careful rational calculus. You are often driven by emotions, a much more powerful motivator. In the case of Ukraine, these are primal emotions. Ukraine has been attacked, people are tortured and killed. 7/
This is the biggest injustice there could be in the world, and it must be corrected. This is what drives people. While it might not be rational, it saves Ukraine and it will ensure our independence and safety from Russia in the future. At the unbelievable high cost of lives 8/
Now I understand that it must be how nations are created and that not any tribe or people could be a nation. Independence and freedom are not free. I just wish fewer people would have to die. 9/
3. Understanding is out of reach without personal experience

The war is covered in fog. Literally and through disinformation. Also, most of our cognitive and learning frameworks that we are humans and societies have developed - fail. They are not adequate for this environment.10
So, unless you see and experience it, you don't really know what to believe. This is why it is critically important to visit the front lines, to speak with the soldiers, to interact with the survivors of occupation, and visit all kinds of places in Ukraine. 11/
Ukraine is large and the war is diverse. Sometimes two villages a couple of miles apart have had very different experiences and now have different attitudes and culture. So, I have learned to be humble and try to learn first from eyewitness to form my own opinion. 12/
4. War can forge you into a better person, tuned into the world's real problems

This one is simple. War makes you a better person because it cleans you of all secondary thoughts and ambitions. The human life, dignity, freedom become key for me. 12/
Now I truly understand the meaning of the human rights. They are not an abstraction for me anymore. Yes, they can be taken away. They can disappear from your life without warning. You can wake up occupied. But human rights must be defended at all costs. 13/
5. Our Ukrainian success hinges on knowledge and continual learning

Russia is powerful, bigger, has a lot of weapons and people willing to fight or too afraid to desert.

So, we need to be smarter, better educated, more tech savvy. We have to deploy technology to win. 14/
And we have to be educated to continue to run our society and economy, during and post war. 15/
6. The harshness and monotony of war quickly become the norm

Before the war I was afraid of the war. I was not sure whether I would behave in a decent way. Would I run away from Ukraine? Would I be afraid to be at the frontlines?

Clearly, people are differently programmed 16/
But what I learned about the fear of war is that it also comes from ignorance, from the loss of control over your life. Over time one get used to the war, one learns how to live through. Humans are amazing at adapting. The war shows it to you. 17/
7. Life's singular purpose is to persist and advance towards victory for Ukraine; all else is secondary.

That's for me. And for most Ukrainians. We want to survive. So, while I miss my academic career in the US and regret that I might not be a good economist as a result of 18/
coming back to Ukraine before the war, I think I have made the right choices as a human. I have one life and I want to liver it true. So, Ukraine must win, and the rest can wait.

Thank you for reading this. I feel we are not alone in this. It will be over one day. X
My main purpose in life is to build KSE university! This is especially important during the war. If you want to support KSE, you can do it here

Thank you so much for your solidarity!foundation.kse.ua

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More from @Mylovanov

Feb 21
DW: Yana joined Ukrainian army last year. Nastia signed up in 2023.

“I’m already used to shelling. If something is flying, I know what to do. I’m not in such a panic. I can calm some guys sitting next to me, calm down, everything is fine, it will fly by.” 1/
DW: Women face many challenges in the army, even criticism about their appearance.

“Although we serve, we’re also women. We want to be well-groomed, beautiful. Why do they care? It’s upsetting that men who would never come here write this.” 2/
DW: Everybody makes a difference and women play an important role in Ukrainian military. There are around 70,000 women, about 8% of the armed forces, and around 5,000 on the front line. Support roles free up others to take on frontline roles. 3X
Read 5 tweets
Feb 21
FT: Russia’s total losses estimated at 325,000 killed, with 30,000-35,000 soldiers killed or seriously wounded every month.

Russia’s army is advancing slower than during the Battle of the Somme, while suffering its heaviest losses in 4 years of full-scale war. 1/ Image
Russian offensives now move 15-70 meters per day on key axes. That pace is slower than most wars of the last 100 years and reflects sustained attrition. 2/
Ukraine’s Commander-in-chief Syrskyi: Russia recruits 35,000 men per month, but 90% of new recruits replace dead or wounded soldiers, not expand combat units.

Force size stagnates while losses mount. 3/
Read 10 tweets
Feb 21
Kremlin is promising $12T worth of deals to Trump administration in return for sanctions relief.

Zelenskyy: “Russia has already promised these deals. One Washington insider says a package has already been agreed on” — The Economist. 1/ Image
Before Putin met Trump in August, a note was drafted for Russia's National Security Council explaining how to sell "the Greatest Deal" to Trump.

Since April, Dmitriev, who runs a Russian state fund, has met Witkoff at least 9 times. 2/
Russia is offering Arctic oil, rare-earth mines, nuclear data center, Bering tunnel.

Individuals close to Trump family have been in talks to acquire stakes in Russian energy assets. Putin offered to return $5B seized from ExxonMobil. 3/
Read 9 tweets
Feb 21
Soldiers may lead a revolution in Russia after the war ends.

James Rogers for Times: When hundreds of thousands of russian soldiers go home, they may find no clear jobs and become a disruptive force.

We’ve seen the same: defeat to Japan in 1905, and revolution after WWI.
1/
Rogers: Putin still believes he’s winning.

The war was supposed to end in days. Russian soldiers carried dress uniforms, expecting a victory parade.

Now it’s hard for him to change course. The economy is on a war footing. If that engine stops, serious problems could hit.

2/
Rogers: There is will on both sides to end the war, but the deal breaks on territory.

Ukraine is asked to give up land defended at high cost. That won’t fly.

Putin annexed territories he doesn’t fully control — and still claims them as russia.”

3X
Read 4 tweets
Feb 21
First deserter from Russian army applied for asylum in Britain.

Alisher Hassanov, Tajik-born, moved to Russia in 2020. Arrested February 2024 because work permit expired. Police gave him a choice sign contract to fight in Ukraine or go to prison — The Times. 1/ Image
Hassanov: "They worked on me psychologically. They said: "Sign a contract for one year. Everything will be fine.

If you don't sign, we'll make it so you're sent to prison, and from there they won't even ask you. They'll just send you straight to the front." 2/
Hassanov trained for 3 weeks in ruins of bombed-out village in Russian-occupied Ukraine.

First assault near Soledar: ordered to run 800m across clearing to storm Ukrainian lines. Pinned down by Ukrainian drone and mortar fire. 2 days later ordered to attack again. 3/
Read 8 tweets
Feb 21
Simon Tisdall: "The US failure to defend Ukraine against Russia is the greatest and most consequential of recent American betrayals.

What really shocks is the sheer bad faith shown by a country that Europeans always counted a friend. Europe will remember" — The Guardian. 1/ Image
Tisdall: "Most Europeans now regard their foremost partner as unreliable, even a foe.

US global influence and leadership is fading fast, to China's huge advantage. Everywhere, autocrats rejoice, as do Europe's advancing far-right parties." 2/
Wolfgang Ischinger, Chair of MSC: "The question of how this war is going to end is actually an existential question for Europe.

It will determine — in more ways than one — the future of this continent." 3/
Read 8 tweets

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