Tymofiy Mylovanov Profile picture
Jul 8, 2023 21 tweets 4 min read Read on X
Day 500 of the Russian war in Ukraine.

I am president of the Kyiv School of Economics, a former minister of economy of Ukraine, and a professor of economics at the University of Pittsburgh. I left the US for Kyiv 4 days before the war.

These are the lessons I learned. 1/
1. We owe our survival to unity and ingenuity
2. Empathy holds more power than rationality.
3. Understanding is out of reach without personal experience
4. War can forge you into a better person, tuned into the world's real problems
2/
5. Our Ukrainian success hinges on knowledge and continual learning
6. The harshness and monotony of war quickly become the norm
7. Life's singular purpose is to persist and advance towards victory for Ukraine; all else is secondary.
3/
Let me expand on each of this points.

1. Unity and ingenuity.

Russia was hoping that a politically polarized Ukrainian society won't be able to provide a quick and unified response to the invasion. They expected that Ukrainians will be slow to react. 4/
And surrender its state and government. After all, in the Russia view, people don't have agency. Russian people are no one for the Kremlin, why should Ukrainians be any different.

But we are. The war has shown unprecedented unity, willpower, and innovation by the Ukrainians 5/
2. Empathy holds more power than rationality.

This one is difficult to explain. Because it is irrational. People sacrifice their lives so that others can survive. On the individual level, to a rational person, educated in the West, or living in Russia, it might not make sense 6/
But when you are in the war, you are not doing careful rational calculus. You are often driven by emotions, a much more powerful motivator. In the case of Ukraine, these are primal emotions. Ukraine has been attacked, people are tortured and killed. 7/
This is the biggest injustice there could be in the world, and it must be corrected. This is what drives people. While it might not be rational, it saves Ukraine and it will ensure our independence and safety from Russia in the future. At the unbelievable high cost of lives 8/
Now I understand that it must be how nations are created and that not any tribe or people could be a nation. Independence and freedom are not free. I just wish fewer people would have to die. 9/
3. Understanding is out of reach without personal experience

The war is covered in fog. Literally and through disinformation. Also, most of our cognitive and learning frameworks that we are humans and societies have developed - fail. They are not adequate for this environment.10
So, unless you see and experience it, you don't really know what to believe. This is why it is critically important to visit the front lines, to speak with the soldiers, to interact with the survivors of occupation, and visit all kinds of places in Ukraine. 11/
Ukraine is large and the war is diverse. Sometimes two villages a couple of miles apart have had very different experiences and now have different attitudes and culture. So, I have learned to be humble and try to learn first from eyewitness to form my own opinion. 12/
4. War can forge you into a better person, tuned into the world's real problems

This one is simple. War makes you a better person because it cleans you of all secondary thoughts and ambitions. The human life, dignity, freedom become key for me. 12/
Now I truly understand the meaning of the human rights. They are not an abstraction for me anymore. Yes, they can be taken away. They can disappear from your life without warning. You can wake up occupied. But human rights must be defended at all costs. 13/
5. Our Ukrainian success hinges on knowledge and continual learning

Russia is powerful, bigger, has a lot of weapons and people willing to fight or too afraid to desert.

So, we need to be smarter, better educated, more tech savvy. We have to deploy technology to win. 14/
And we have to be educated to continue to run our society and economy, during and post war. 15/
6. The harshness and monotony of war quickly become the norm

Before the war I was afraid of the war. I was not sure whether I would behave in a decent way. Would I run away from Ukraine? Would I be afraid to be at the frontlines?

Clearly, people are differently programmed 16/
But what I learned about the fear of war is that it also comes from ignorance, from the loss of control over your life. Over time one get used to the war, one learns how to live through. Humans are amazing at adapting. The war shows it to you. 17/
7. Life's singular purpose is to persist and advance towards victory for Ukraine; all else is secondary.

That's for me. And for most Ukrainians. We want to survive. So, while I miss my academic career in the US and regret that I might not be a good economist as a result of 18/
coming back to Ukraine before the war, I think I have made the right choices as a human. I have one life and I want to liver it true. So, Ukraine must win, and the rest can wait.

Thank you for reading this. I feel we are not alone in this. It will be over one day. X
My main purpose in life is to build KSE university! This is especially important during the war. If you want to support KSE, you can do it here

Thank you so much for your solidarity!foundation.kse.ua

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More from @Mylovanov

Apr 23
Kellogg: No more Mr. Nice Guy. Keep tearing apart Iran economically, and if that means going to the home base of Kharg Island, that’s what we’ll do.

You are looking for domestic revolt. That is the only way the regime falls or stops causing us problems. 1/
Kellogg: Break the impasse by breaking off negotiations. We’re done with these guys. Take a harder line.

If it means taking Kharg Island and the other islands in the strait, so be it. We have Marines offshore and the 82nd Airborne ready to move immediately. 2/
Kellogg: As long as the IRGC is in charge under Vahidi, they have a problem.

It controls a 500,000-strong paramilitary force that keeps the civilian population down. The army is twice the size of the IRGC. You want to fragment them and force hard choices. 3/
Read 6 tweets
Apr 23
Budanov: Russia’s bigger loss is reputational. War sanctions may end someday, but doubts about Russia as a reliable supplier will last much longer.

Deliveries through the Black Sea and even the Baltic face major disruption.

1/
Budanov: Striking one target now often requires many drones as effectiveness drops under EW and air defenses. It’s a constant race.

The next leap must be AI, new communications, and better control systems — current methods are near their limit.

2X
Source:
Read 4 tweets
Apr 23
Zelenskyy: Orbán is a skilled and experienced political operator.

It’s a pity someone so strong chose Russia’s side. I believed he would lose because he built his campaign on hatred of one nation toward another.

1/
Zelenskyy: Ukraine can stop Shaheds and has built its own wartime systems, but we still lack Patriots or equivalents. If needed, we’ll produce them ourselves or with Europeans.

My top priority is finding more air defense, especially anti-ballistic systems.

2/
Zelenskyy: I feel like a parrot repeating the same answer — elections during war are not possible under the constitution.

They will happen when the war ends, and until then I will support and lead my country.

3/
Read 6 tweets
Apr 23
Former Ukraine FM Kuleba: Trump will not change his stance on Ukraine. He rejected Zelenskyy’s offer to help in the Gulf for one reason: he doesn't want to owe anything to Ukraine

He would even see it as a humiliation to admit that he cannot fix Iran without Ukraine’s support 1/
Kuleba: Trump’s line is clear and consistent. He wants to press Ukraine into concessions in the form of a withdrawal from the rest of the Donbas.

The part of Donetsk region Ukraine still controls, and then use that concession as the basis for a ceasefire. 2/
Kuleba: We are facing great-power thinking. Trump sees Russia as a great power and believes smaller nations should subjugate themselves to stronger ones.

In his world, Ukraine resisting Russian demands is like Venezuela resisting American demands. That is how he sees politics. 3/
Read 6 tweets
Apr 23
American planners estimated three days to break Serbia's will in 1999. It took 79. Trump's team thought Iran would fold quickly. Six weeks later, the war continues.

Same cultural blind spot, different president — The Economist. 1/ Image
A 2011 CIA paper on "Cultural Topography" used Kosovo as a case study.

Serbia's national day marks a 1389 defeat at Ottoman hands. Had analysts weighted Serbian honor, they would have warned: Serbia wins by standing up when the world expects it to fold. 2/
The same blind spot caused "terrible harms" in Afghanistan and Iraq.

Jeannie Johnson, professor at Utah State: "American commanders see foreign difficulties as problems to be solved or targets to be struck — rather than terrain to be navigated." 3/
Read 8 tweets
Apr 23
Russia could be ready to attack NATO territory by 2029. Germany's response: 460,000 troops, including 260,000 active — up from 186,400 today.

Defense Minister Pistorius published Germany's first-ever military strategy on April 22 — DW. 1/ Image
The strategy names Russia as the primary security threat in Europe. Moscow "creates conditions for a military attack on NATO countries" and already runs hybrid operations — including against Germany.

Espionage, sabotage, cyberattacks, and disinformation are now constant, not exceptions. 2/
Last year recruitment added only 3,600 troops despite an active campaign. The previous target was 203,000 by 2031.

Experts doubt the new goal is reachable without conscription, suspended in 2011. One lawmaker already proposes raising the reservist age from 65 to 70 by 2035. 3/
Read 7 tweets

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