Tymofiy Mylovanov Profile picture
Jul 8, 2023 21 tweets 4 min read Read on X
Day 500 of the Russian war in Ukraine.

I am president of the Kyiv School of Economics, a former minister of economy of Ukraine, and a professor of economics at the University of Pittsburgh. I left the US for Kyiv 4 days before the war.

These are the lessons I learned. 1/
1. We owe our survival to unity and ingenuity
2. Empathy holds more power than rationality.
3. Understanding is out of reach without personal experience
4. War can forge you into a better person, tuned into the world's real problems
2/
5. Our Ukrainian success hinges on knowledge and continual learning
6. The harshness and monotony of war quickly become the norm
7. Life's singular purpose is to persist and advance towards victory for Ukraine; all else is secondary.
3/
Let me expand on each of this points.

1. Unity and ingenuity.

Russia was hoping that a politically polarized Ukrainian society won't be able to provide a quick and unified response to the invasion. They expected that Ukrainians will be slow to react. 4/
And surrender its state and government. After all, in the Russia view, people don't have agency. Russian people are no one for the Kremlin, why should Ukrainians be any different.

But we are. The war has shown unprecedented unity, willpower, and innovation by the Ukrainians 5/
2. Empathy holds more power than rationality.

This one is difficult to explain. Because it is irrational. People sacrifice their lives so that others can survive. On the individual level, to a rational person, educated in the West, or living in Russia, it might not make sense 6/
But when you are in the war, you are not doing careful rational calculus. You are often driven by emotions, a much more powerful motivator. In the case of Ukraine, these are primal emotions. Ukraine has been attacked, people are tortured and killed. 7/
This is the biggest injustice there could be in the world, and it must be corrected. This is what drives people. While it might not be rational, it saves Ukraine and it will ensure our independence and safety from Russia in the future. At the unbelievable high cost of lives 8/
Now I understand that it must be how nations are created and that not any tribe or people could be a nation. Independence and freedom are not free. I just wish fewer people would have to die. 9/
3. Understanding is out of reach without personal experience

The war is covered in fog. Literally and through disinformation. Also, most of our cognitive and learning frameworks that we are humans and societies have developed - fail. They are not adequate for this environment.10
So, unless you see and experience it, you don't really know what to believe. This is why it is critically important to visit the front lines, to speak with the soldiers, to interact with the survivors of occupation, and visit all kinds of places in Ukraine. 11/
Ukraine is large and the war is diverse. Sometimes two villages a couple of miles apart have had very different experiences and now have different attitudes and culture. So, I have learned to be humble and try to learn first from eyewitness to form my own opinion. 12/
4. War can forge you into a better person, tuned into the world's real problems

This one is simple. War makes you a better person because it cleans you of all secondary thoughts and ambitions. The human life, dignity, freedom become key for me. 12/
Now I truly understand the meaning of the human rights. They are not an abstraction for me anymore. Yes, they can be taken away. They can disappear from your life without warning. You can wake up occupied. But human rights must be defended at all costs. 13/
5. Our Ukrainian success hinges on knowledge and continual learning

Russia is powerful, bigger, has a lot of weapons and people willing to fight or too afraid to desert.

So, we need to be smarter, better educated, more tech savvy. We have to deploy technology to win. 14/
And we have to be educated to continue to run our society and economy, during and post war. 15/
6. The harshness and monotony of war quickly become the norm

Before the war I was afraid of the war. I was not sure whether I would behave in a decent way. Would I run away from Ukraine? Would I be afraid to be at the frontlines?

Clearly, people are differently programmed 16/
But what I learned about the fear of war is that it also comes from ignorance, from the loss of control over your life. Over time one get used to the war, one learns how to live through. Humans are amazing at adapting. The war shows it to you. 17/
7. Life's singular purpose is to persist and advance towards victory for Ukraine; all else is secondary.

That's for me. And for most Ukrainians. We want to survive. So, while I miss my academic career in the US and regret that I might not be a good economist as a result of 18/
coming back to Ukraine before the war, I think I have made the right choices as a human. I have one life and I want to liver it true. So, Ukraine must win, and the rest can wait.

Thank you for reading this. I feel we are not alone in this. It will be over one day. X
My main purpose in life is to build KSE university! This is especially important during the war. If you want to support KSE, you can do it here

Thank you so much for your solidarity!foundation.kse.ua

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More from @Mylovanov

Nov 15
What’s new in the scandal over Ukraine’s largest electricity producer, Energoatom?

1. Ukraine’s migration service canceled Timur Mindich’s citizenship — he holds Israeli citizenship. Mindich fled Ukraine hours before NABU raids on Nov. 10.

1/ Image
2. Zelensky removed Energy Minister Svitlana Hrynchuk and Justice Minister Herman Halushchenko from the National Security and Defense Council.

Both ministers filed resignation letters after NABU exposed the bribery scheme.

2/
3. Courts took bail for two Energoatom “back-office” employees — Lesia Ustymenko (₴25M) and Liudmyla Zorina (₴12M), says RBK-Ukraine.

Five suspects are already detained; Mindich and businessman Oleksandr Zukerman escaped abroad.

3/
Read 7 tweets
Nov 15
Merz told Zelenskyy to stop the rising flow of young Ukrainian men to Germany and ensure they remain in Ukraine to serve.

Arrivals of Ukrainian men aged 18-22 surged from 19 per week in Aug to 1,400-1,800 per week in Oct after Kyiv relaxed exit rules, Politico. 1/ Image
Bavaria’s PM Markus Söder proposed limiting the EU Temporary Protection Directive if Kyiv doesn’t reduce departures.

The directive currently grants Ukrainians automatic protected status in the EU. 3/
Merz’s coalition fears the growing number of young male Ukrainians could become a political weapon for AfD, now polling first.

AfD criticizes support for Kyiv and demands ending welfare payments to Ukrainians. 4/
Read 7 tweets
Nov 15
Russia’s oil export revenues fell to $13.4B in September, a decline of $200M compared to the previous month.

Crude revenues increased by $200M, but this gain was fully offset by a $400M drop in oil product revenues, KSE Institute reports. 1/ Image
Seaborne oil exports increased by 4.1% compared to the previous month. Ships covered by international insurance carried only 26% of crude exports and 81% of oil product exports. 2/
Russian refinery runs dropped by about 800K barrels per day in October, reaching 4.6M barrels per day.

The decline was caused by continued drone attacks that forced Rosneft to reduce processing volumes by 22% compared to July. 3/
Read 13 tweets
Nov 14
Q: Latest situation in eastern Ukraine?

Stefanishyna, Ukraine’s ambassador to the US: Russia is scaling up its military budget and nightly drone attacks. Pokrovsk is used to create a “victorious” narrative, but Ukraine sees it as Russian agony. 1/
Q: Will Ukraine withdraw from Pokrovsk?

Stefanishyna: There were over 1,100 engagements last week, and Pokrovsk is just one spot. Russia is throwing 5 times more resources there, but it will not be decisive for the whole war. 2/
Q: Chance of getting Tomahawk missiles?

Stefanishyna: Many capabilities exist between Ukrainian drones and Tomahawks. Ukraine is committed to ending the war, but with attacks rising, defending people by destroying aggressor capabilities is natural. 3/
Read 5 tweets
Nov 14
Q: What’s Ukraine’s energy situation ahead of winter?

Zelenskyy: It’s tough. Russia launches up to 800 drones a day plus missiles at energy sites.

Ukraine depends on air defense, EW, and home-built drones to protect the grid.

1/
Zelenskyy: We need to not lose US and EU support.

We need long range artillery, air defence, and interceptor drones.

Overally we need long range. Not only Tomahawks, there are similar systems.

Some Russsian military targets have strong air defence. Drones aren't enough.

2/
Zelenskyy: We need Russian frozen assets very much. These are the real sanctions.

We’ll spend it on renovation, on air defence, on drones.

Russia began this war and they have to pay for it. This is the way they can pay.

3/
Read 4 tweets
Nov 13
Russia is expanding its recruitment of African nationals for its war in Ukraine.

Kenya now says more than 200 of its citizens have already joined Moscow’s forces.

Ukraine reports over 1,400 fighters from 30+ African states serving with Russia. — Reuters

1/ Image
Kenya’s foreign ministry says recruitment networks remain active in both Kenya and Russia.

Its embassy in Moscow has recorded injuries among Kenyan recruits who were promised “safe” non-combat work but ended up at the front.

2/
In a September raid near Nairobi, Kenyan authorities rescued 21 people who believed they were hired to assemble drones, handle chemicals, or paint.

Instead, they were being prepared for deployment to Ukraine. One suspected recruiter is now facing prosecution.

3/
Read 5 tweets

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