Tymofiy Mylovanov Profile picture
Jul 8, 2023 21 tweets 4 min read Read on X
Day 500 of the Russian war in Ukraine.

I am president of the Kyiv School of Economics, a former minister of economy of Ukraine, and a professor of economics at the University of Pittsburgh. I left the US for Kyiv 4 days before the war.

These are the lessons I learned. 1/
1. We owe our survival to unity and ingenuity
2. Empathy holds more power than rationality.
3. Understanding is out of reach without personal experience
4. War can forge you into a better person, tuned into the world's real problems
2/
5. Our Ukrainian success hinges on knowledge and continual learning
6. The harshness and monotony of war quickly become the norm
7. Life's singular purpose is to persist and advance towards victory for Ukraine; all else is secondary.
3/
Let me expand on each of this points.

1. Unity and ingenuity.

Russia was hoping that a politically polarized Ukrainian society won't be able to provide a quick and unified response to the invasion. They expected that Ukrainians will be slow to react. 4/
And surrender its state and government. After all, in the Russia view, people don't have agency. Russian people are no one for the Kremlin, why should Ukrainians be any different.

But we are. The war has shown unprecedented unity, willpower, and innovation by the Ukrainians 5/
2. Empathy holds more power than rationality.

This one is difficult to explain. Because it is irrational. People sacrifice their lives so that others can survive. On the individual level, to a rational person, educated in the West, or living in Russia, it might not make sense 6/
But when you are in the war, you are not doing careful rational calculus. You are often driven by emotions, a much more powerful motivator. In the case of Ukraine, these are primal emotions. Ukraine has been attacked, people are tortured and killed. 7/
This is the biggest injustice there could be in the world, and it must be corrected. This is what drives people. While it might not be rational, it saves Ukraine and it will ensure our independence and safety from Russia in the future. At the unbelievable high cost of lives 8/
Now I understand that it must be how nations are created and that not any tribe or people could be a nation. Independence and freedom are not free. I just wish fewer people would have to die. 9/
3. Understanding is out of reach without personal experience

The war is covered in fog. Literally and through disinformation. Also, most of our cognitive and learning frameworks that we are humans and societies have developed - fail. They are not adequate for this environment.10
So, unless you see and experience it, you don't really know what to believe. This is why it is critically important to visit the front lines, to speak with the soldiers, to interact with the survivors of occupation, and visit all kinds of places in Ukraine. 11/
Ukraine is large and the war is diverse. Sometimes two villages a couple of miles apart have had very different experiences and now have different attitudes and culture. So, I have learned to be humble and try to learn first from eyewitness to form my own opinion. 12/
4. War can forge you into a better person, tuned into the world's real problems

This one is simple. War makes you a better person because it cleans you of all secondary thoughts and ambitions. The human life, dignity, freedom become key for me. 12/
Now I truly understand the meaning of the human rights. They are not an abstraction for me anymore. Yes, they can be taken away. They can disappear from your life without warning. You can wake up occupied. But human rights must be defended at all costs. 13/
5. Our Ukrainian success hinges on knowledge and continual learning

Russia is powerful, bigger, has a lot of weapons and people willing to fight or too afraid to desert.

So, we need to be smarter, better educated, more tech savvy. We have to deploy technology to win. 14/
And we have to be educated to continue to run our society and economy, during and post war. 15/
6. The harshness and monotony of war quickly become the norm

Before the war I was afraid of the war. I was not sure whether I would behave in a decent way. Would I run away from Ukraine? Would I be afraid to be at the frontlines?

Clearly, people are differently programmed 16/
But what I learned about the fear of war is that it also comes from ignorance, from the loss of control over your life. Over time one get used to the war, one learns how to live through. Humans are amazing at adapting. The war shows it to you. 17/
7. Life's singular purpose is to persist and advance towards victory for Ukraine; all else is secondary.

That's for me. And for most Ukrainians. We want to survive. So, while I miss my academic career in the US and regret that I might not be a good economist as a result of 18/
coming back to Ukraine before the war, I think I have made the right choices as a human. I have one life and I want to liver it true. So, Ukraine must win, and the rest can wait.

Thank you for reading this. I feel we are not alone in this. It will be over one day. X
My main purpose in life is to build KSE university! This is especially important during the war. If you want to support KSE, you can do it here

Thank you so much for your solidarity!foundation.kse.ua

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More from @Mylovanov

Jul 4
Ukraine is proposing a roadmap to stabilize relations with Poland after a dispute over historical memory.

Proposal has three tracks: foreign ministry consultations, meetings between WWII historians, and religious leaders joining bilateral dialogue — United24. 1/ Image
The proposal was presented by FM Andrii Sybiha to Poland’s Radosław Sikorski in Warsaw.
Kyiv’s message — the dispute should be handled through institutions, not public escalation, and Moscow should not benefit from tension between allies. 2/
The historical track includes renewed historian congresses and continued exhumation procedures.
Ukraine says progress has already been made over the past 18 months and that exhumations should continue through official channels. 3/
Read 7 tweets
Jul 4
Five towns hold the Donbas. Ukraine has turned them into anti-drone net tunnels and kill zones Russia has battered for years.

This fortress belt is the 10% of the Donbas Russia demands in any peace deal. Losing it opens the lowlands to Dnipro, Kharkiv and Kyiv — The Guardian.1/ Image
Lyman sits at the northern edge of the belt. Moscow's forces push daily to retake the city Ukraine drove them out of in the 2022 counteroffensive.

Spent fibre-optic cable from years of drone fighting now hangs so thickly over the buildings that fresh drones tangle in it. 2/
Oleksandr Pavlovych, a vegetable seller, fled Lyman after shrapnel hit his 78-year-old mother in the stomach. She died slowly over a day, and he buried her in the garden.

He then rode a bicycle 30 km to Sloviansk, surviving an FPV drone that exploded on an anti-drone net. 3/
Read 10 tweets
Jul 3
Firepoint co-founder Shtilierman: Ukraine does not need 300 km ballistic missiles. Moscow is not 300 km from our border.

Russia is a monocentric state, with power concentrated in Moscow and St. Petersburg. That is why Ukraine is developing longer-range ballistic capabilities. 1/
Shtilierman: We produce Flamingo missiles as much as we are ordered to produce.

The capacity is there. The bottleneck is bureaucracy around engine exports in Europe and the U.S.

2/
Shtilierman: There are five Flamingo launches in open sources.

We never publish anything before the official General Staff report. Many missions happen and are never publicly reported.

3/
Read 11 tweets
Jul 3
Russian intelligence started tracking Boris Johnson while he was an Oxford student in the 1980s.

The Kremlin called him "likeable but not trustworthy," said he had "no principles" and "could be easily manipulated," The Telegraph. 1/ Image
Russian officers ruled out recruiting Johnson.

Their conclusion: "A manic self-promoter such as Johnson can't really be taken seriously as a candidate for any deep and lasting intelligence connection." 2/
Dominic Cummings, the architect of the Vote Leave campaign and Boris Johnson's future chief adviser, moved to Russia in 1994.

Russian intelligence suspected he was already working with MI6 but opened a file on him anyway and tried to recruit him. 3/
Read 11 tweets
Jul 3
Russia destroyed a Ukrainian Red Cross humanitarian warehouse in a massive overnight attack on Kyiv on July 2.

The strike caused over $1.76mn in damage to equipment and emergency supplies, United24. 1/ Image
Russia launched 74 missiles and nearly 500 drones during the assault. It damaged about 100 residential buildings and caused direct hits on at least 20 others.

Air defense intercepted 4 ballistic missiles, 32 of 34 Kh-101s, 8 Kalibrs, 4 Kh-59/69s and 476 drones. 2/
Ukrainian Red Cross: The rented warehouse served as one of its key logistics centers.

It held humanitarian cargo for emergency response, medical institutions, and vital aid to hundreds of thousands of vulnerable people. Russia also damaged an aid delivery vehicle. 3/
Read 6 tweets
Jul 3
Kasparov: Putin is a monster that feeds on blood. He has crossed every red line.

The death toll is already in the millions. His bunker is protected. He considers Europeans impotent. What will stop him? 1/
Kasparov: Ukrainian strikes will become more effective. Russia's air defense resources are limited. Problems in Russia will keep growing.

If this continues, Putin won't last long. Russia's system is corrupt from top to bottom and isn't prepared for serious challenges. 2/
Kasparov: Even if Putin mobilizes another 500,000 people, they still have to be equipped, transported and trained.

That's a serious logistical challenge. Russian recruits survive about three weeks from mobilization until they are killed or seriously wounded. 3X
Read 5 tweets

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