Tymofiy Mylovanov Profile picture
Jul 8, 2023 21 tweets 4 min read Read on X
Day 500 of the Russian war in Ukraine.

I am president of the Kyiv School of Economics, a former minister of economy of Ukraine, and a professor of economics at the University of Pittsburgh. I left the US for Kyiv 4 days before the war.

These are the lessons I learned. 1/
1. We owe our survival to unity and ingenuity
2. Empathy holds more power than rationality.
3. Understanding is out of reach without personal experience
4. War can forge you into a better person, tuned into the world's real problems
2/
5. Our Ukrainian success hinges on knowledge and continual learning
6. The harshness and monotony of war quickly become the norm
7. Life's singular purpose is to persist and advance towards victory for Ukraine; all else is secondary.
3/
Let me expand on each of this points.

1. Unity and ingenuity.

Russia was hoping that a politically polarized Ukrainian society won't be able to provide a quick and unified response to the invasion. They expected that Ukrainians will be slow to react. 4/
And surrender its state and government. After all, in the Russia view, people don't have agency. Russian people are no one for the Kremlin, why should Ukrainians be any different.

But we are. The war has shown unprecedented unity, willpower, and innovation by the Ukrainians 5/
2. Empathy holds more power than rationality.

This one is difficult to explain. Because it is irrational. People sacrifice their lives so that others can survive. On the individual level, to a rational person, educated in the West, or living in Russia, it might not make sense 6/
But when you are in the war, you are not doing careful rational calculus. You are often driven by emotions, a much more powerful motivator. In the case of Ukraine, these are primal emotions. Ukraine has been attacked, people are tortured and killed. 7/
This is the biggest injustice there could be in the world, and it must be corrected. This is what drives people. While it might not be rational, it saves Ukraine and it will ensure our independence and safety from Russia in the future. At the unbelievable high cost of lives 8/
Now I understand that it must be how nations are created and that not any tribe or people could be a nation. Independence and freedom are not free. I just wish fewer people would have to die. 9/
3. Understanding is out of reach without personal experience

The war is covered in fog. Literally and through disinformation. Also, most of our cognitive and learning frameworks that we are humans and societies have developed - fail. They are not adequate for this environment.10
So, unless you see and experience it, you don't really know what to believe. This is why it is critically important to visit the front lines, to speak with the soldiers, to interact with the survivors of occupation, and visit all kinds of places in Ukraine. 11/
Ukraine is large and the war is diverse. Sometimes two villages a couple of miles apart have had very different experiences and now have different attitudes and culture. So, I have learned to be humble and try to learn first from eyewitness to form my own opinion. 12/
4. War can forge you into a better person, tuned into the world's real problems

This one is simple. War makes you a better person because it cleans you of all secondary thoughts and ambitions. The human life, dignity, freedom become key for me. 12/
Now I truly understand the meaning of the human rights. They are not an abstraction for me anymore. Yes, they can be taken away. They can disappear from your life without warning. You can wake up occupied. But human rights must be defended at all costs. 13/
5. Our Ukrainian success hinges on knowledge and continual learning

Russia is powerful, bigger, has a lot of weapons and people willing to fight or too afraid to desert.

So, we need to be smarter, better educated, more tech savvy. We have to deploy technology to win. 14/
And we have to be educated to continue to run our society and economy, during and post war. 15/
6. The harshness and monotony of war quickly become the norm

Before the war I was afraid of the war. I was not sure whether I would behave in a decent way. Would I run away from Ukraine? Would I be afraid to be at the frontlines?

Clearly, people are differently programmed 16/
But what I learned about the fear of war is that it also comes from ignorance, from the loss of control over your life. Over time one get used to the war, one learns how to live through. Humans are amazing at adapting. The war shows it to you. 17/
7. Life's singular purpose is to persist and advance towards victory for Ukraine; all else is secondary.

That's for me. And for most Ukrainians. We want to survive. So, while I miss my academic career in the US and regret that I might not be a good economist as a result of 18/
coming back to Ukraine before the war, I think I have made the right choices as a human. I have one life and I want to liver it true. So, Ukraine must win, and the rest can wait.

Thank you for reading this. I feel we are not alone in this. It will be over one day. X
My main purpose in life is to build KSE university! This is especially important during the war. If you want to support KSE, you can do it here

Thank you so much for your solidarity!foundation.kse.ua

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More from @Mylovanov

Jul 29
Stubb: Ukraine is now on top militarily, politically and economically, stronger than at any time in this war.

Half of Ukraine’s drones that hit Russia reach their targets. Half of Russia’s oil-refining capacity is damaged. Russia loses 8 soldiers for every 1 Ukrainian.

1/
Stubb: For Lindsey, Ukraine was a victory for freedom, for the Europe-U.S. alliance, for NATO, for liberal democracy and for the free world.

He fought hard for his values, and Ukraine was one of the most important battles he fought.

2/
Stubb: Iran and Ukraine conflicts are linked. Russia, China, Iran and North Korea are forging an alliance.

They feed the Russian and Iranian war machines. We must decide how to support Ukraine and help the U.S. stop Iran from getting a nuclear weapon.

3X
Read 5 tweets
Jul 29
Kellogg: You do not need a Gulf War-style invasion. Hit strategic targets.

Take Kharg Island, 16 miles offshore and central to Iran’s economy. Hold it and say: end this, and we give it back. This is for our kids and grandkids. No nuclear Iran.

1/
Kellogg: Russia and China are probably helping Iran as much as they can. This is no longer a military fight.

It is a political fight, a gut-check moment: are we closing them out or not? Trump has put real effort into negotiations, but now the question is how to finish this.

2X
Source:
Read 4 tweets
Jul 29
Zelenskyy: It’s a pity Crimea is not back on the table, or NOT YET. Land matters: it is our territory, history and homes.

Saving people comes first. Ukraine is ready for a ceasefire and diplomacy. Putin wants 500,000 more soldiers this autumn while losing 30,000 a month.

1/
Zelenskyy: Putin said he would occupy Ukraine in two or three days.

Now Ukraine has built a great miltech industry: 500 companies with strong technologies and soldiers holding the front. Putin loses 30,000 soldiers a month. The initiative is no longer in Putin’s hands.

2/
Zelenskyy: War changes every three to six months. Ukraine built a modern miltech platform because drones that work today may fail in six months.

We must change faster than Putin. He has more people. We must save our people and use more technology, not more bodies.

3/
Read 9 tweets
Jul 28
Trump’s administration told Congress it will not finish spending $400mn in approved Ukraine aid until fiscal 2029, the year Trump leaves office.

Reuters: Kyiv is critically low on weapons needed to defend against Russian missile attacks. 1/ Image
Pentagon letter: The funds would be obligated in fiscal 2026, but final delivery is estimated for the year ending Sept. 30, 2029.

Reuters source: Two months after the letter, the money still had not been disbursed or even put on contract. 2/
The $400mn plan includes $200mn for weapons, ammunition and explosives; $99.9mn for vehicles, spares and equipment; and $100mn for services such as transporting defense articles to Ukraine. 3/
Read 6 tweets
Jul 28
Ukraine’s new Defence Minister Khmara: Ukraine’s deep strikes and drone campaigns must cost about 2% of the damage they cause Russia.

We can’t go punch for punch with Russia. We have to be asymmetric, interview with Laura Loomer.

1/ Image
Khmara: Don’t send someone where you’re not ready to go yourself.

Soldiers know I would never ask them to take a risk I would not take myself.

2/
Khmara: Future wars will be won by those who innovate faster, adapt faster, and save lives where they can.

3/
Read 10 tweets
Jul 28
Ukraine wants to end its reliance on the US-made Patriot and build a cheaper European system of its own, codenamed Freyja.

Kyiv wants a prototype ready by the first half of 2027, with Russian ballistic missiles now outpacing its dwindling supply of interceptors — Reuters. 1/ Image
Ukraine depends almost entirely on US-made Patriots, the only weapon in its arsenal that reliably downs Russian ballistic missiles flying at several times the speed of sound.

Patriot supplies keep slipping on political volatility, low stocks, and a long production cycle. 2/
Russia has stepped up its ballistic strikes on the capital Kyiv and the southern port hub of Odesa this month, firing dozens of missiles at both cities.

Ukraine failed to intercept most of them because it ran short on interceptors, the exact gap Freyja is built to close. 3/
Read 8 tweets

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