Tymofiy Mylovanov Profile picture
Jul 8, 2023 21 tweets 4 min read Read on X
Day 500 of the Russian war in Ukraine.

I am president of the Kyiv School of Economics, a former minister of economy of Ukraine, and a professor of economics at the University of Pittsburgh. I left the US for Kyiv 4 days before the war.

These are the lessons I learned. 1/
1. We owe our survival to unity and ingenuity
2. Empathy holds more power than rationality.
3. Understanding is out of reach without personal experience
4. War can forge you into a better person, tuned into the world's real problems
2/
5. Our Ukrainian success hinges on knowledge and continual learning
6. The harshness and monotony of war quickly become the norm
7. Life's singular purpose is to persist and advance towards victory for Ukraine; all else is secondary.
3/
Let me expand on each of this points.

1. Unity and ingenuity.

Russia was hoping that a politically polarized Ukrainian society won't be able to provide a quick and unified response to the invasion. They expected that Ukrainians will be slow to react. 4/
And surrender its state and government. After all, in the Russia view, people don't have agency. Russian people are no one for the Kremlin, why should Ukrainians be any different.

But we are. The war has shown unprecedented unity, willpower, and innovation by the Ukrainians 5/
2. Empathy holds more power than rationality.

This one is difficult to explain. Because it is irrational. People sacrifice their lives so that others can survive. On the individual level, to a rational person, educated in the West, or living in Russia, it might not make sense 6/
But when you are in the war, you are not doing careful rational calculus. You are often driven by emotions, a much more powerful motivator. In the case of Ukraine, these are primal emotions. Ukraine has been attacked, people are tortured and killed. 7/
This is the biggest injustice there could be in the world, and it must be corrected. This is what drives people. While it might not be rational, it saves Ukraine and it will ensure our independence and safety from Russia in the future. At the unbelievable high cost of lives 8/
Now I understand that it must be how nations are created and that not any tribe or people could be a nation. Independence and freedom are not free. I just wish fewer people would have to die. 9/
3. Understanding is out of reach without personal experience

The war is covered in fog. Literally and through disinformation. Also, most of our cognitive and learning frameworks that we are humans and societies have developed - fail. They are not adequate for this environment.10
So, unless you see and experience it, you don't really know what to believe. This is why it is critically important to visit the front lines, to speak with the soldiers, to interact with the survivors of occupation, and visit all kinds of places in Ukraine. 11/
Ukraine is large and the war is diverse. Sometimes two villages a couple of miles apart have had very different experiences and now have different attitudes and culture. So, I have learned to be humble and try to learn first from eyewitness to form my own opinion. 12/
4. War can forge you into a better person, tuned into the world's real problems

This one is simple. War makes you a better person because it cleans you of all secondary thoughts and ambitions. The human life, dignity, freedom become key for me. 12/
Now I truly understand the meaning of the human rights. They are not an abstraction for me anymore. Yes, they can be taken away. They can disappear from your life without warning. You can wake up occupied. But human rights must be defended at all costs. 13/
5. Our Ukrainian success hinges on knowledge and continual learning

Russia is powerful, bigger, has a lot of weapons and people willing to fight or too afraid to desert.

So, we need to be smarter, better educated, more tech savvy. We have to deploy technology to win. 14/
And we have to be educated to continue to run our society and economy, during and post war. 15/
6. The harshness and monotony of war quickly become the norm

Before the war I was afraid of the war. I was not sure whether I would behave in a decent way. Would I run away from Ukraine? Would I be afraid to be at the frontlines?

Clearly, people are differently programmed 16/
But what I learned about the fear of war is that it also comes from ignorance, from the loss of control over your life. Over time one get used to the war, one learns how to live through. Humans are amazing at adapting. The war shows it to you. 17/
7. Life's singular purpose is to persist and advance towards victory for Ukraine; all else is secondary.

That's for me. And for most Ukrainians. We want to survive. So, while I miss my academic career in the US and regret that I might not be a good economist as a result of 18/
coming back to Ukraine before the war, I think I have made the right choices as a human. I have one life and I want to liver it true. So, Ukraine must win, and the rest can wait.

Thank you for reading this. I feel we are not alone in this. It will be over one day. X
My main purpose in life is to build KSE university! This is especially important during the war. If you want to support KSE, you can do it here

Thank you so much for your solidarity!foundation.kse.ua

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More from @Mylovanov

Apr 13
Keane: You do not need 10,000 troops to seize Iran’s uranium. The US controls the airspace.

The real threat is rockets and missiles. Another option is to threaten Kharg Island: give up enrichment, or lose more than 90% of your export lifeline. 1/
Keane: Trump’s blockade already shuts down Iran’s oil exports. Zero export oil leaves Iran under this order.

Kharg Island handles more than 90% of that flow, so cutting that artery hits Tehran hard and fast and strips away Tehran’s leverage. 2/
Keane: Iran misread the ceasefire. Tehran thought the shutdown gave it leverage and would push US negotiators into concessions.

Instead, talks collapsed, Trump wanted everything, and Washington’s answer was simple: absolutely not. 3/
Read 6 tweets
Apr 13
Russian soldiers go to war for money, then pay it back to survive.

“I gave $650 to be moved to guard duty in Crimea. Others paid more. One guy said he pays more than he’ll ever earn. Someone turned this war into a business.” — Meduza. 1/ Image
Commanders run it like a system.

Skip a mission: $2,600. Stay in the rear: up to $6,500. Soldiers pay again and again — every rotation, every order. 2/
They pay for everything.

Armor, radios, fuel, food. Units collect $400 monthly per soldier. Some give away $25k+ over time. 3/
Read 9 tweets
Apr 13
When soldiers are taught how to survive an FPV drone, they’re taught “how to try to survive.”

Rule number one: don’t stay together. One strike can wipe out a group. If you scatter, the drone has to pick one target. After that — it’s all down to chance, The Telegraph. 1/
If there’s no cover, drop low and make yourself harder to see. If there is cover — run. Stay in shadows, hug walls, use vegetation to reduce visibility and heat signature. 2/
Drone Fight Club founder Vladyslav Plaksin: You have to think ahead. What you’re doing now is already in the past. You need to know where the drone will be in 2–3 seconds. That’s why musicians make great operators. 3/
Read 8 tweets
Apr 13
Anne Applebaum: If Orbán lost, Putin and Trump can be next.

Illiberal regimes can fall even after 16 years in power — Hungary just proved it, writes she in The Atlantic. 1/ Image
Péter Magyar and his party Tisza won a constitutional majority of Parliament seats.

To get there he had to defeat a regime that controlled the judiciary, bureaucracy, universities and a chunk of the economy through oligarchic companies. 2/
In the final weeks Orbán received support from Trump, Vance, Netanyahu, Marine Le Pen, Alice Weidel and other illiberal leaders from Argentina, Poland, Slovakia and Brazil. 3/
Read 12 tweets
Apr 13
Here is what Peter Magyar plans to do first as Hungary's new leader:

1. pass a new constitution
2. unlock $20 billion in frozen EU funds
3. introduce a wealth tax, repair ties with Ukraine and the EU
4. fix a near-junk credit rating, writes Bloomberg. 1/ Image
Politics: demand resignations of the president, top justices and chief prosecutor. Pass a new constitution. Change election rules that favored Fidesz. Limit prime ministers to two terms — effectively barring Orbán from running again. 2/
Foreign policy: unlock more than $20 billion in EU funds frozen over graft and rule of law concerns. Pass anti-corruption legislation. Restore judicial independence and media freedom. First trip: Warsaw. Then Vienna and Brussels. 3/
Read 8 tweets
Apr 13
McFaul: Before this war, Hormuz was open. Now Trump is talking about a joint venture with the Islamic Republic to charge ships for passage.

Charging for a natural strait is a terrible precedent, and doing business with this regime could hand it billions. 1/
McFaul: The costs go far beyond Iran.

This war generated billions for Putin through higher oil prices, pushed NATO into a major crisis because Trump is lashing out at allies, and made America look less like a defender of order and more like another rogue power. 2/
McFaul: If we want to compete with China, we need allies, values, and a reputation for playing by the rules.

Instead, this war makes China look prudent and cautious while America looks reckless, punitive, and willing to wreck the order it claims to defend. 3/
Read 6 tweets

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