Tymofiy Mylovanov Profile picture
Jul 8, 2023 21 tweets 4 min read Read on X
Day 500 of the Russian war in Ukraine.

I am president of the Kyiv School of Economics, a former minister of economy of Ukraine, and a professor of economics at the University of Pittsburgh. I left the US for Kyiv 4 days before the war.

These are the lessons I learned. 1/
1. We owe our survival to unity and ingenuity
2. Empathy holds more power than rationality.
3. Understanding is out of reach without personal experience
4. War can forge you into a better person, tuned into the world's real problems
2/
5. Our Ukrainian success hinges on knowledge and continual learning
6. The harshness and monotony of war quickly become the norm
7. Life's singular purpose is to persist and advance towards victory for Ukraine; all else is secondary.
3/
Let me expand on each of this points.

1. Unity and ingenuity.

Russia was hoping that a politically polarized Ukrainian society won't be able to provide a quick and unified response to the invasion. They expected that Ukrainians will be slow to react. 4/
And surrender its state and government. After all, in the Russia view, people don't have agency. Russian people are no one for the Kremlin, why should Ukrainians be any different.

But we are. The war has shown unprecedented unity, willpower, and innovation by the Ukrainians 5/
2. Empathy holds more power than rationality.

This one is difficult to explain. Because it is irrational. People sacrifice their lives so that others can survive. On the individual level, to a rational person, educated in the West, or living in Russia, it might not make sense 6/
But when you are in the war, you are not doing careful rational calculus. You are often driven by emotions, a much more powerful motivator. In the case of Ukraine, these are primal emotions. Ukraine has been attacked, people are tortured and killed. 7/
This is the biggest injustice there could be in the world, and it must be corrected. This is what drives people. While it might not be rational, it saves Ukraine and it will ensure our independence and safety from Russia in the future. At the unbelievable high cost of lives 8/
Now I understand that it must be how nations are created and that not any tribe or people could be a nation. Independence and freedom are not free. I just wish fewer people would have to die. 9/
3. Understanding is out of reach without personal experience

The war is covered in fog. Literally and through disinformation. Also, most of our cognitive and learning frameworks that we are humans and societies have developed - fail. They are not adequate for this environment.10
So, unless you see and experience it, you don't really know what to believe. This is why it is critically important to visit the front lines, to speak with the soldiers, to interact with the survivors of occupation, and visit all kinds of places in Ukraine. 11/
Ukraine is large and the war is diverse. Sometimes two villages a couple of miles apart have had very different experiences and now have different attitudes and culture. So, I have learned to be humble and try to learn first from eyewitness to form my own opinion. 12/
4. War can forge you into a better person, tuned into the world's real problems

This one is simple. War makes you a better person because it cleans you of all secondary thoughts and ambitions. The human life, dignity, freedom become key for me. 12/
Now I truly understand the meaning of the human rights. They are not an abstraction for me anymore. Yes, they can be taken away. They can disappear from your life without warning. You can wake up occupied. But human rights must be defended at all costs. 13/
5. Our Ukrainian success hinges on knowledge and continual learning

Russia is powerful, bigger, has a lot of weapons and people willing to fight or too afraid to desert.

So, we need to be smarter, better educated, more tech savvy. We have to deploy technology to win. 14/
And we have to be educated to continue to run our society and economy, during and post war. 15/
6. The harshness and monotony of war quickly become the norm

Before the war I was afraid of the war. I was not sure whether I would behave in a decent way. Would I run away from Ukraine? Would I be afraid to be at the frontlines?

Clearly, people are differently programmed 16/
But what I learned about the fear of war is that it also comes from ignorance, from the loss of control over your life. Over time one get used to the war, one learns how to live through. Humans are amazing at adapting. The war shows it to you. 17/
7. Life's singular purpose is to persist and advance towards victory for Ukraine; all else is secondary.

That's for me. And for most Ukrainians. We want to survive. So, while I miss my academic career in the US and regret that I might not be a good economist as a result of 18/
coming back to Ukraine before the war, I think I have made the right choices as a human. I have one life and I want to liver it true. So, Ukraine must win, and the rest can wait.

Thank you for reading this. I feel we are not alone in this. It will be over one day. X
My main purpose in life is to build KSE university! This is especially important during the war. If you want to support KSE, you can do it here

Thank you so much for your solidarity!foundation.kse.ua

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More from @Mylovanov

Jun 22
Bolton: Damage to Iran's military infrastructure is real, but the regime stays and this deal is a significant political defeat.

Trump wanted the strait open to get gasoline prices down before November. He lost sight of the strategic issues that should have been central. 1/
Bolton: Gulf Arabs will live in fear that Tehran turns the strait on and off like a light switch.

Friends around the world wonder even more what an American commitment means. If we had taken military control of the strait at the outset, none of this would have happened. 2/
Bolton on the $300B fund Trump says the US won't pay for, the MOU says the US undertakes to create this fund "while ensuring financing of at least $300 billion."

That is a guarantee, and the US is the guarantor. If the Saudis and Emirates won't pay, it comes from us. 3X
Read 5 tweets
Jun 22
Graham: If the Iran deal fails, Trump takes the Strait of Hormuz by force. The US will control it and charge a fee for all ships passing through.

He says he spent four and a half hours with Trump on Friday laying this out. Expand the Abraham Accords in 2026. 1/
Graham: New policy if diplomacy collapses — when Hezbollah attacks Israel, the US hits Iran directly.

Not the proxy. Iran itself. "If Iran tests control of the Strait of Hormuz by the United States, we will obliterate them." To the Iranians: that is the message. 2/
Graham: On the $300B fund he called "a Marshall Plan for Germany with the Nazis still in charge", he changed position.

If money comes from Sunni Arabs, not the West, it proves Iran changed. "Do you think Saudi Arabia will invest in a theocracy bent on destroying Sunni Islam?" 3/
Read 6 tweets
Jun 22
The US may win AI and still lose the technology race — Bloomberg.

AI is only one piece of the competition with China. Twenty years ago, the US led China in 61 of 64 key technologies tracked by ASPI. Three years ago, China led in 57 of them. 1/ Image
The bigger challenge is turning innovation into industrial power.

For example, China now manufactures 70–80% of the world’s drones, despite many core technologies being invented in the US, Europe, and Japan. 2/
US biotech remains a global leader in research, but lacks manufacturing capacity to capture the economic value of its discoveries fully.

Quantum computing still requires sustained public investment to avoid a future "quantum winter." 3/
Read 6 tweets
Jun 21
Vector, who leads a Ukrainian unit striking deep inside Russia with long-range drones: They are now our most important card in this war.

Ukraine now flies 200 to 300 of these drones at targets inside Russia every night, up from a few dozen a month in early 2024 — Politico. 1/ Image
In a secret warehouse, GUR specialists assemble 15-foot Liutyi kamikaze drones that carry up to 150 pounds of explosives and fly 1,300 miles.

Each costs about $230,000. Small teams scatter across Ukraine to launch them, so losing a few sites or drones changes little. 2/
Vector: At the beginning, Russians believed they were conducting a special military operation. Now they understand that this is a war.

This war has now reached your homes as well. We hope that message helps Russia bring this war to an end. 3/
Read 9 tweets
Jun 21
Ukrainian strikes have already disabled almost 40% of primary oil refining in European Russia

Russia runs its war on refined fuel. Diesel moves trucks and logistics. Jet fuel keeps aviation in the air. Generators need fuel every day, — Hromadske. 1/
Ukraine is hitting the core refinery units that turn crude into usable fuel.

These units are large, complex and hard to replace under sanctions.

Every successful strike removes capacity, adds repair time and increases pressure on the Russian fuel system. 2/
The route from refinery to front is long.

Fuel leaves the plant, moves to depots, goes by rail toward Rostov or Bataysk, reaches local bases, then moves by tanker trucks to Russian units.

Every broken refinery creates delays across this route. 3/
Read 12 tweets
Jun 21
Russia killed her husband when she was 20. She became an FPV pilot and killed an enemy pilot. First in her battalion.

Iryna “Bilka” Kolobaeva for Radio Svoboda: After around 2 weeks from the burial, I started regaining consciousness and understood it would be revenge.

1/
Bilka: During my last shift before leave, I destroyed my first enemy vehicle. There isn’t much in our sector, so this is a big deal.

I also have the battalion’s first enemy pilot kill to my credit. I’m the first girl in the battalion, and I destroyed the first enemy pilot.

2/
Bilka: When my husband and I were hanging out in Lyman, he never led me by central streets. He said we were always walking by those scary corners, so I know hidden ways “just in case.”

He knew I would work here. Knowing those ways helps me.

3/
Read 7 tweets

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