Tymofiy Mylovanov Profile picture
Jul 8, 2023 21 tweets 4 min read Read on X
Day 500 of the Russian war in Ukraine.

I am president of the Kyiv School of Economics, a former minister of economy of Ukraine, and a professor of economics at the University of Pittsburgh. I left the US for Kyiv 4 days before the war.

These are the lessons I learned. 1/
1. We owe our survival to unity and ingenuity
2. Empathy holds more power than rationality.
3. Understanding is out of reach without personal experience
4. War can forge you into a better person, tuned into the world's real problems
2/
5. Our Ukrainian success hinges on knowledge and continual learning
6. The harshness and monotony of war quickly become the norm
7. Life's singular purpose is to persist and advance towards victory for Ukraine; all else is secondary.
3/
Let me expand on each of this points.

1. Unity and ingenuity.

Russia was hoping that a politically polarized Ukrainian society won't be able to provide a quick and unified response to the invasion. They expected that Ukrainians will be slow to react. 4/
And surrender its state and government. After all, in the Russia view, people don't have agency. Russian people are no one for the Kremlin, why should Ukrainians be any different.

But we are. The war has shown unprecedented unity, willpower, and innovation by the Ukrainians 5/
2. Empathy holds more power than rationality.

This one is difficult to explain. Because it is irrational. People sacrifice their lives so that others can survive. On the individual level, to a rational person, educated in the West, or living in Russia, it might not make sense 6/
But when you are in the war, you are not doing careful rational calculus. You are often driven by emotions, a much more powerful motivator. In the case of Ukraine, these are primal emotions. Ukraine has been attacked, people are tortured and killed. 7/
This is the biggest injustice there could be in the world, and it must be corrected. This is what drives people. While it might not be rational, it saves Ukraine and it will ensure our independence and safety from Russia in the future. At the unbelievable high cost of lives 8/
Now I understand that it must be how nations are created and that not any tribe or people could be a nation. Independence and freedom are not free. I just wish fewer people would have to die. 9/
3. Understanding is out of reach without personal experience

The war is covered in fog. Literally and through disinformation. Also, most of our cognitive and learning frameworks that we are humans and societies have developed - fail. They are not adequate for this environment.10
So, unless you see and experience it, you don't really know what to believe. This is why it is critically important to visit the front lines, to speak with the soldiers, to interact with the survivors of occupation, and visit all kinds of places in Ukraine. 11/
Ukraine is large and the war is diverse. Sometimes two villages a couple of miles apart have had very different experiences and now have different attitudes and culture. So, I have learned to be humble and try to learn first from eyewitness to form my own opinion. 12/
4. War can forge you into a better person, tuned into the world's real problems

This one is simple. War makes you a better person because it cleans you of all secondary thoughts and ambitions. The human life, dignity, freedom become key for me. 12/
Now I truly understand the meaning of the human rights. They are not an abstraction for me anymore. Yes, they can be taken away. They can disappear from your life without warning. You can wake up occupied. But human rights must be defended at all costs. 13/
5. Our Ukrainian success hinges on knowledge and continual learning

Russia is powerful, bigger, has a lot of weapons and people willing to fight or too afraid to desert.

So, we need to be smarter, better educated, more tech savvy. We have to deploy technology to win. 14/
And we have to be educated to continue to run our society and economy, during and post war. 15/
6. The harshness and monotony of war quickly become the norm

Before the war I was afraid of the war. I was not sure whether I would behave in a decent way. Would I run away from Ukraine? Would I be afraid to be at the frontlines?

Clearly, people are differently programmed 16/
But what I learned about the fear of war is that it also comes from ignorance, from the loss of control over your life. Over time one get used to the war, one learns how to live through. Humans are amazing at adapting. The war shows it to you. 17/
7. Life's singular purpose is to persist and advance towards victory for Ukraine; all else is secondary.

That's for me. And for most Ukrainians. We want to survive. So, while I miss my academic career in the US and regret that I might not be a good economist as a result of 18/
coming back to Ukraine before the war, I think I have made the right choices as a human. I have one life and I want to liver it true. So, Ukraine must win, and the rest can wait.

Thank you for reading this. I feel we are not alone in this. It will be over one day. X
My main purpose in life is to build KSE university! This is especially important during the war. If you want to support KSE, you can do it here

Thank you so much for your solidarity!foundation.kse.ua

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More from @Mylovanov

May 24
Kasparov: Putin is not just at war against Ukraine. He is at war against Europe, European institutions and the free world.

Dictators lie about what they have done, but very often they tell you exactly what they are going to do. Putin has for decades. 1/
Kasparov: Putin’s goal was, is and will be to restore the Russian Empire and push NATO back to 1997 borders.

Ukraine is the main target now, but not the ultimate goal. Europe still treats this as hypothetical. It is not a threat — it is a menace. 2/
Kasparov: Putin needs a success story: proving NATO is dead because Article 5 does not work.

Narva, Daugavpils, maybe Vilnius are ideal targets. It is not about occupying Europe; it is about showing NATO will debate, hesitate and fail to respond. 3/
Read 6 tweets
May 24
Former Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba: Ukraine’s victory is not just a line on a map.

Victory is preserving an independent, sovereign, European Ukraine: not absorbed by Russia, not controlled by Russia, and not part of the Russian world. 1/
Kuleba: Putin’s death could seriously break the course of this war.

Apart from Putin and maybe Patrushev, there is no one in Russia’s elite for whom destroying Ukrainian statehood is the meaning of life at this level of obsession. 2/
Kuleba: Putin cannot become the first Russian ruler since 1654 who failed to keep Ukraine. For him, everything in life is now at stake.

That is why this war is personal, historical and much bigger than ordinary imperial pressure. 3X
Read 5 tweets
May 24
Petraeus: The U.S. has not remotely learned the lessons it should from Ukraine.

This is the future of war: Ukraine alone uses 10,000 drones a day, and 90% of Russian casualties are caused by drones. That should force institutional change. 1/
Petraeus: Tanks cannot maneuver anymore. Armored vehicles cannot survive.

You cannot even drive vehicles in the 35-km death zone on either side of the front, because drones can fly into trenches and kill people. This is a vast change. 2/
Petraeus: The U.S. has to overhaul its concepts of war: create unmanned-systems forces like Ukraine has, change how leaders train, and build weapons that can get software updates weekly and hardware changes every few weeks. 3/
Read 6 tweets
May 24
Fukuyama: The key issue was Taiwan.

A $14B arms package was held up, and Trump seemed to see Taiwan as a “very good negotiating chip” with Beijing — trading an ally’s security for economic advantage while repeating false claims about Taiwan stealing U.S. chip technology. 1/
Fukuyama: The optics showed how far Trump had fallen in Chinese eyes.

Xi did not meet him at the airport, Trump was seated to look smaller, and the worst part was Trump’s constant flattery — calling Xi a great leader, a friend, someone from central casting. 2/
Fukuyama: American decline is a direct product of Trump’s rise since 2016.

It is as if Trump decided to weaken the U.S. against China: polarizing America, attacking universities, cutting science funding, and depleting advanced munitions in the Middle East. 3/
Read 6 tweets
May 24
A Russian drone is still outside my window. And air-defense machine guns are working a hundred yards away.

This night Russia attacked Kyiv again.

For the first time, our university KSE, was hit.

One staff member was injured. No one in our community was killed, thank God. 1/ Image
Windows and doors in two main buildings are shattered.

The team is checking for structural damage.

So far, I have no reports of any more student, staff or faculty injuries. But one apartment and one house are destroyed, another apartment damaged. 2/ Image
Our operations and management teams were on site at 5am, the moment curfew ended, while the attack was still continuing.

We are okayish, but Kyiv is damaged. The death tool is 1 as of writing, I expect it to rise to dozens. 3/ Image
Read 7 tweets
May 23
Putin "may not be able to negotiate from a position of strength anymore," Estonia's intelligence chief said.

In 4 to 5 months, Russia may lose the leverage it still has on the battlefield — CNN. 1/ Image
Russia bleeds men it cannot replace, and the Kremlin avoids decisions that would stabilize the front.

Kaupo Rosin, head of Estonia's Foreign Intelligence Service: "I do not hear any more talk about total victory."

Russians recognize the battlefield is not going well. 2/
CSIS analysts estimate Russia advanced about 70 meters a day over two years.

That grind cost around 1,000 killed or wounded daily, and the advances stalled this year. 3/
Read 9 tweets

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