Tymofiy Mylovanov Profile picture
Jul 8, 2023 21 tweets 4 min read Read on X
Day 500 of the Russian war in Ukraine.

I am president of the Kyiv School of Economics, a former minister of economy of Ukraine, and a professor of economics at the University of Pittsburgh. I left the US for Kyiv 4 days before the war.

These are the lessons I learned. 1/
1. We owe our survival to unity and ingenuity
2. Empathy holds more power than rationality.
3. Understanding is out of reach without personal experience
4. War can forge you into a better person, tuned into the world's real problems
2/
5. Our Ukrainian success hinges on knowledge and continual learning
6. The harshness and monotony of war quickly become the norm
7. Life's singular purpose is to persist and advance towards victory for Ukraine; all else is secondary.
3/
Let me expand on each of this points.

1. Unity and ingenuity.

Russia was hoping that a politically polarized Ukrainian society won't be able to provide a quick and unified response to the invasion. They expected that Ukrainians will be slow to react. 4/
And surrender its state and government. After all, in the Russia view, people don't have agency. Russian people are no one for the Kremlin, why should Ukrainians be any different.

But we are. The war has shown unprecedented unity, willpower, and innovation by the Ukrainians 5/
2. Empathy holds more power than rationality.

This one is difficult to explain. Because it is irrational. People sacrifice their lives so that others can survive. On the individual level, to a rational person, educated in the West, or living in Russia, it might not make sense 6/
But when you are in the war, you are not doing careful rational calculus. You are often driven by emotions, a much more powerful motivator. In the case of Ukraine, these are primal emotions. Ukraine has been attacked, people are tortured and killed. 7/
This is the biggest injustice there could be in the world, and it must be corrected. This is what drives people. While it might not be rational, it saves Ukraine and it will ensure our independence and safety from Russia in the future. At the unbelievable high cost of lives 8/
Now I understand that it must be how nations are created and that not any tribe or people could be a nation. Independence and freedom are not free. I just wish fewer people would have to die. 9/
3. Understanding is out of reach without personal experience

The war is covered in fog. Literally and through disinformation. Also, most of our cognitive and learning frameworks that we are humans and societies have developed - fail. They are not adequate for this environment.10
So, unless you see and experience it, you don't really know what to believe. This is why it is critically important to visit the front lines, to speak with the soldiers, to interact with the survivors of occupation, and visit all kinds of places in Ukraine. 11/
Ukraine is large and the war is diverse. Sometimes two villages a couple of miles apart have had very different experiences and now have different attitudes and culture. So, I have learned to be humble and try to learn first from eyewitness to form my own opinion. 12/
4. War can forge you into a better person, tuned into the world's real problems

This one is simple. War makes you a better person because it cleans you of all secondary thoughts and ambitions. The human life, dignity, freedom become key for me. 12/
Now I truly understand the meaning of the human rights. They are not an abstraction for me anymore. Yes, they can be taken away. They can disappear from your life without warning. You can wake up occupied. But human rights must be defended at all costs. 13/
5. Our Ukrainian success hinges on knowledge and continual learning

Russia is powerful, bigger, has a lot of weapons and people willing to fight or too afraid to desert.

So, we need to be smarter, better educated, more tech savvy. We have to deploy technology to win. 14/
And we have to be educated to continue to run our society and economy, during and post war. 15/
6. The harshness and monotony of war quickly become the norm

Before the war I was afraid of the war. I was not sure whether I would behave in a decent way. Would I run away from Ukraine? Would I be afraid to be at the frontlines?

Clearly, people are differently programmed 16/
But what I learned about the fear of war is that it also comes from ignorance, from the loss of control over your life. Over time one get used to the war, one learns how to live through. Humans are amazing at adapting. The war shows it to you. 17/
7. Life's singular purpose is to persist and advance towards victory for Ukraine; all else is secondary.

That's for me. And for most Ukrainians. We want to survive. So, while I miss my academic career in the US and regret that I might not be a good economist as a result of 18/
coming back to Ukraine before the war, I think I have made the right choices as a human. I have one life and I want to liver it true. So, Ukraine must win, and the rest can wait.

Thank you for reading this. I feel we are not alone in this. It will be over one day. X
My main purpose in life is to build KSE university! This is especially important during the war. If you want to support KSE, you can do it here

Thank you so much for your solidarity!foundation.kse.ua

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More from @Mylovanov

Jun 2
Ukraine was supposed to have “no cards.” Now Putin is trapped in “zugzwang”.

Russia captured only 0.04% of Ukraine this year, lost territory in Apr, cut the Victory Day parade to 45 minutes, and now fears Ukrainian drones near Moscow, George Will for the WP. 1/ Image
Zelenskyy turned Putin’s main war ritual into a security problem.

Ukraine “permitted” the May 9 parade by not striking Red Square, while fewer troops and vehicles appeared because Moscow feared drone attacks on staging areas. 2/
Russia’s battlefield gains now cost absurd amounts of manpower.

Putin’s troops can spend weeks losing hundreds of fighting-age men to seize patches of land the size of the National Mall. 3/
Read 11 tweets
Jun 1
Russia's war spending can exceed its budget by at least $28 billion this year. In a worst-case scenario — $56 billion over.

The Finance Ministry asked the cabinet to freeze $40 billion of planned civilian spending through 2028 to cover the shortfall, FT.

1/ Image
Russia allocated $238 billion, nearly 40% of this year's entire budget, to defence and security. Still not enough.

In the first four months of 2026, Russia's deficit already hit 2.5% of GDP — the largest since the full-scale invasion began.

2/
Finance Minister Siluanov: "Our reserves are not endless. We can't allow any weak points in our finances while such major transformations are going on in the world."

The economy ministry cut its 2026 growth forecast to just 0.4%.

3/
Read 6 tweets
Jun 1
Ukraine hit Rosneft's Saratov oil refinery in southwestern Russia.

The plant processes 7 million tons of crude per year and produces fuel for Russia's military. This is the third strike on it this year. — Bloomberg. 1/ Image
The same night, Ukraine hit an oil-pumping station on the Surgut-Gorky-Polotsk pipeline in central Russia's Kirov region.

Russia's Defense Ministry said 216 Ukrainian drones were shot down overnight.

2/
The strikes are part of Ukraine's stepped-up campaign against Russian oil assets — refineries, pipeline infrastructure and ports — targeting Kremlin petrodollar revenue as the Iran war keeps oil prices elevated.

3X
Read 5 tweets
Jun 1
Russia declared it had captured all of Luhansk. Ukrainian drones answered by striking Izvaryne, the crossing on the Russian border that funnels armor, ammunition, and troops into the region.

The deepest strike landed 205 km inside occupied territory — Kyiv Post. 1/
Izvaryne is the primary artery moving heavy equipment and reinforcements from mainland Russia to the Donbas front.

Cut it, and resupply into occupied Luhansk slows for thousands of Russian troops. 2/
The corps' unmanned systems battalion bypassed Russian electronic warfare cover to reach the target.

Pilots neutralized armored vehicles and destroyed forward ammunition depots inside the occupied enclave. 3/
Read 10 tweets
Jun 1
Valery Zaluzhnyi, former Commander-in-Chief of Ukraine’s Armed Forces:

“It is impossible to create a reliable counterbalance to Russia in the Black Sea without Ukraine.” — Interfax. 1/ Image
Ukraine’s participation in shaping the future security space in the region is only possible through membership in a political and security alliance. 2/
The Azov-Black Sea region is not just access to the sea. It is a strategic platform through which Ukraine can project power toward the Mediterranean, the Middle East and Africa. Russia almost achieved dominance here before the full-scale invasion. 3/
Read 12 tweets
Jun 1
Sen. Chris Murphy: Trump does not want to do what is necessary to support Ukraine, and Republicans follow his lead.

A bipartisan Russia sanctions bill has sat for a year and a half because Trump will not let Senate Republicans move it. 1/
Murphy: Congress allocated $400 million to help Ukraine, and Trump has not spent a dime of it despite loud public and private protests from Senate Republicans.

He has decided he does not want to help Ukraine, and Republicans lack the courage to fight back. 2/
Murphy: The Iran war has been a disaster for the United States.

It humiliated America, made Iran more powerful, raised gas prices and forced Washington to suspend sanctions on Russian oil, meaning Russia is getting stronger too. 3/
Read 6 tweets

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