Tymofiy Mylovanov Profile picture
Jul 8, 2023 21 tweets 4 min read Read on X
Day 500 of the Russian war in Ukraine.

I am president of the Kyiv School of Economics, a former minister of economy of Ukraine, and a professor of economics at the University of Pittsburgh. I left the US for Kyiv 4 days before the war.

These are the lessons I learned. 1/
1. We owe our survival to unity and ingenuity
2. Empathy holds more power than rationality.
3. Understanding is out of reach without personal experience
4. War can forge you into a better person, tuned into the world's real problems
2/
5. Our Ukrainian success hinges on knowledge and continual learning
6. The harshness and monotony of war quickly become the norm
7. Life's singular purpose is to persist and advance towards victory for Ukraine; all else is secondary.
3/
Let me expand on each of this points.

1. Unity and ingenuity.

Russia was hoping that a politically polarized Ukrainian society won't be able to provide a quick and unified response to the invasion. They expected that Ukrainians will be slow to react. 4/
And surrender its state and government. After all, in the Russia view, people don't have agency. Russian people are no one for the Kremlin, why should Ukrainians be any different.

But we are. The war has shown unprecedented unity, willpower, and innovation by the Ukrainians 5/
2. Empathy holds more power than rationality.

This one is difficult to explain. Because it is irrational. People sacrifice their lives so that others can survive. On the individual level, to a rational person, educated in the West, or living in Russia, it might not make sense 6/
But when you are in the war, you are not doing careful rational calculus. You are often driven by emotions, a much more powerful motivator. In the case of Ukraine, these are primal emotions. Ukraine has been attacked, people are tortured and killed. 7/
This is the biggest injustice there could be in the world, and it must be corrected. This is what drives people. While it might not be rational, it saves Ukraine and it will ensure our independence and safety from Russia in the future. At the unbelievable high cost of lives 8/
Now I understand that it must be how nations are created and that not any tribe or people could be a nation. Independence and freedom are not free. I just wish fewer people would have to die. 9/
3. Understanding is out of reach without personal experience

The war is covered in fog. Literally and through disinformation. Also, most of our cognitive and learning frameworks that we are humans and societies have developed - fail. They are not adequate for this environment.10
So, unless you see and experience it, you don't really know what to believe. This is why it is critically important to visit the front lines, to speak with the soldiers, to interact with the survivors of occupation, and visit all kinds of places in Ukraine. 11/
Ukraine is large and the war is diverse. Sometimes two villages a couple of miles apart have had very different experiences and now have different attitudes and culture. So, I have learned to be humble and try to learn first from eyewitness to form my own opinion. 12/
4. War can forge you into a better person, tuned into the world's real problems

This one is simple. War makes you a better person because it cleans you of all secondary thoughts and ambitions. The human life, dignity, freedom become key for me. 12/
Now I truly understand the meaning of the human rights. They are not an abstraction for me anymore. Yes, they can be taken away. They can disappear from your life without warning. You can wake up occupied. But human rights must be defended at all costs. 13/
5. Our Ukrainian success hinges on knowledge and continual learning

Russia is powerful, bigger, has a lot of weapons and people willing to fight or too afraid to desert.

So, we need to be smarter, better educated, more tech savvy. We have to deploy technology to win. 14/
And we have to be educated to continue to run our society and economy, during and post war. 15/
6. The harshness and monotony of war quickly become the norm

Before the war I was afraid of the war. I was not sure whether I would behave in a decent way. Would I run away from Ukraine? Would I be afraid to be at the frontlines?

Clearly, people are differently programmed 16/
But what I learned about the fear of war is that it also comes from ignorance, from the loss of control over your life. Over time one get used to the war, one learns how to live through. Humans are amazing at adapting. The war shows it to you. 17/
7. Life's singular purpose is to persist and advance towards victory for Ukraine; all else is secondary.

That's for me. And for most Ukrainians. We want to survive. So, while I miss my academic career in the US and regret that I might not be a good economist as a result of 18/
coming back to Ukraine before the war, I think I have made the right choices as a human. I have one life and I want to liver it true. So, Ukraine must win, and the rest can wait.

Thank you for reading this. I feel we are not alone in this. It will be over one day. X
My main purpose in life is to build KSE university! This is especially important during the war. If you want to support KSE, you can do it here

Thank you so much for your solidarity!foundation.kse.ua

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More from @Mylovanov

Dec 13
NATO chief Mark Rutte warns Russia could wage war against the alliance "on the scale our grandparents and great-grandparents endured" — referencing World War-level conflict. He says Russia could be ready to use military force against NATO within five years — Reuters. 1/ Image
In a Berlin speech, Rutte warned that too many NATO allies don't feel the urgency of Russia's threat and are "quietly complacent." He urged rapid increases in defense spending and production: "The time for action is now." 2/
"We are Russia's next target," Rutte declared. "Conflict is at our door. Russia has brought war back to Europe. And we must be prepared." He warned that allies wrongly believe time is on their side — it's not. 3/
Read 5 tweets
Dec 12
Secret FBI-Ukraine contacts are rattling Western capitals.

Ukraine’s top peace negotiator held closed-door meetings with FBI Director Patel and Deputy Director Bongino amid US pressure on Kyiv to accept Trump’s peace plan — The WP. 1/ Image
Rustem Umerov secretly met FBI leadership multiple times while traveling to the US for negotiations with Trump envoy Witkoff.

The meetings were not disclosed to most Western partners, triggering concern over their purpose and timing. 2/
Some Western officials fear the channel could be used to pressure Zelenskyy into accepting a US-backed deal with major territorial concessions.

Others worry Ukrainian officials sought FBI leverage or protection amid a widening corruption probe in Kyiv. 3/
Read 10 tweets
Dec 12
Brussels triggered an emergency legal clause to keep €210B in Russian sovereign assets immobilised for the foreseeable future, shielding them from release or external bargaining — Euronews.

The move uses Article 122 of EU treaties — an emergency economic provision. 1/ Image
It allows action by qualified majority, bypassing unanimity and the European Parliament. This removes the risk of single-country vetoes that plagued the sanctions-based freeze. 2/
Article 122 directly addresses Belgium’s biggest fear: premature release.

The new ban makes early asset transfer legally impossible, protecting Euroclear from breach-of-contract liability with Russia’s central bank. 3/
Read 13 tweets
Dec 12
How far are Ukraine and Russia from signing a peace deal?

The Times writes that the next few days are the most dangerous moment of the war, as Europe fears Trump could cut Ukraine loose and side with Moscow to force a settlement at almost any price.

1/ Image
In October, Trump envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner negotiated a 28-point US–Russia plan with Putin ally Kirill Dmitriev — without Ukraine or the EU.

The deal handed Crimea and Donbas to Russia, froze the front and capped Ukraine’s army at 600,000.

2/
The plan banned NATO membership, forced troop withdrawals, lifted sanctions on Russia and invited Moscow back into the G8.

Security guarantees stayed weak and vague: talk of a response, no hard commitments.

3/
Read 11 tweets
Dec 11
BlackRock CEO Larry Fink has entered the economic track of Trump–Ukraine negotiations — a major signal that reconstruction planning is moving into real money and procedures, reports Bloomberg. 1/ Image
Zelenskyy said Fink joined Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Jared Kushner on Wednesday for what he called “the first meeting of the group that will work on a document concerning reconstruction and economic recovery of Ukraine.” 2/
Fink’s return is notable: BlackRock paused its Ukraine recovery fund nearly a year ago after Trump’s re-election.

Before the freeze, the fund was on track to raise $2.5B from governments, development banks and private investors. 3/
Read 8 tweets
Dec 11
Russia is not as resilient as Putin claims.

Its army crawls forward with heavy losses, its economy stalls with a 22% drop in oil and gas revenue and public support for the war collapses , writes The Economist.

1/ Image
Putin films himself in fatigues and boasts that troops “advance virtually everywhere.”

On the ground, Russian commanders send small assault groups to record victory clips before they die.

Ukrainian forces still hold Pokrovsk, weeks after Russia claimed to seize it.

2/
War spending hits half of Russia’s budget.

Tank plants work overtime, carmakers cut shifts.

The deficit nears 3% of GDP.

Sanctions block foreign borrowing, so the Kremlin drains its own people — higher taxes, domestic debt, and inflation.

3/
Read 9 tweets

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