Tymofiy Mylovanov Profile picture
Jul 8, 2023 21 tweets 4 min read Read on X
Day 500 of the Russian war in Ukraine.

I am president of the Kyiv School of Economics, a former minister of economy of Ukraine, and a professor of economics at the University of Pittsburgh. I left the US for Kyiv 4 days before the war.

These are the lessons I learned. 1/
1. We owe our survival to unity and ingenuity
2. Empathy holds more power than rationality.
3. Understanding is out of reach without personal experience
4. War can forge you into a better person, tuned into the world's real problems
2/
5. Our Ukrainian success hinges on knowledge and continual learning
6. The harshness and monotony of war quickly become the norm
7. Life's singular purpose is to persist and advance towards victory for Ukraine; all else is secondary.
3/
Let me expand on each of this points.

1. Unity and ingenuity.

Russia was hoping that a politically polarized Ukrainian society won't be able to provide a quick and unified response to the invasion. They expected that Ukrainians will be slow to react. 4/
And surrender its state and government. After all, in the Russia view, people don't have agency. Russian people are no one for the Kremlin, why should Ukrainians be any different.

But we are. The war has shown unprecedented unity, willpower, and innovation by the Ukrainians 5/
2. Empathy holds more power than rationality.

This one is difficult to explain. Because it is irrational. People sacrifice their lives so that others can survive. On the individual level, to a rational person, educated in the West, or living in Russia, it might not make sense 6/
But when you are in the war, you are not doing careful rational calculus. You are often driven by emotions, a much more powerful motivator. In the case of Ukraine, these are primal emotions. Ukraine has been attacked, people are tortured and killed. 7/
This is the biggest injustice there could be in the world, and it must be corrected. This is what drives people. While it might not be rational, it saves Ukraine and it will ensure our independence and safety from Russia in the future. At the unbelievable high cost of lives 8/
Now I understand that it must be how nations are created and that not any tribe or people could be a nation. Independence and freedom are not free. I just wish fewer people would have to die. 9/
3. Understanding is out of reach without personal experience

The war is covered in fog. Literally and through disinformation. Also, most of our cognitive and learning frameworks that we are humans and societies have developed - fail. They are not adequate for this environment.10
So, unless you see and experience it, you don't really know what to believe. This is why it is critically important to visit the front lines, to speak with the soldiers, to interact with the survivors of occupation, and visit all kinds of places in Ukraine. 11/
Ukraine is large and the war is diverse. Sometimes two villages a couple of miles apart have had very different experiences and now have different attitudes and culture. So, I have learned to be humble and try to learn first from eyewitness to form my own opinion. 12/
4. War can forge you into a better person, tuned into the world's real problems

This one is simple. War makes you a better person because it cleans you of all secondary thoughts and ambitions. The human life, dignity, freedom become key for me. 12/
Now I truly understand the meaning of the human rights. They are not an abstraction for me anymore. Yes, they can be taken away. They can disappear from your life without warning. You can wake up occupied. But human rights must be defended at all costs. 13/
5. Our Ukrainian success hinges on knowledge and continual learning

Russia is powerful, bigger, has a lot of weapons and people willing to fight or too afraid to desert.

So, we need to be smarter, better educated, more tech savvy. We have to deploy technology to win. 14/
And we have to be educated to continue to run our society and economy, during and post war. 15/
6. The harshness and monotony of war quickly become the norm

Before the war I was afraid of the war. I was not sure whether I would behave in a decent way. Would I run away from Ukraine? Would I be afraid to be at the frontlines?

Clearly, people are differently programmed 16/
But what I learned about the fear of war is that it also comes from ignorance, from the loss of control over your life. Over time one get used to the war, one learns how to live through. Humans are amazing at adapting. The war shows it to you. 17/
7. Life's singular purpose is to persist and advance towards victory for Ukraine; all else is secondary.

That's for me. And for most Ukrainians. We want to survive. So, while I miss my academic career in the US and regret that I might not be a good economist as a result of 18/
coming back to Ukraine before the war, I think I have made the right choices as a human. I have one life and I want to liver it true. So, Ukraine must win, and the rest can wait.

Thank you for reading this. I feel we are not alone in this. It will be over one day. X
My main purpose in life is to build KSE university! This is especially important during the war. If you want to support KSE, you can do it here

Thank you so much for your solidarity!foundation.kse.ua

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More from @Mylovanov

Jul 7
Stubb: 35,000 Russian soldiers killed per month won't end this war. Economic strain won't end it either.

What ends it: the Russian population turning against it. Drones hit St. Petersburg and Moscow. Kids lose their summers in Crimea. Gas lines. Internet shutdowns.

1/
Stubb: Ukraine's long-range strikes took down 40% of Russia's oil refining capacity.

2/
Stubb: Ukraine needs more Patriots — over 100 civilian buildings hit just the other night, civilians dying.

Europeans and Americans need to work on this together.

3/
Read 7 tweets
Jul 7
Trump turned NATO from a security guarantee into a paid service. Allies buy American weapons, and in return the US keeps protecting them.

They committed nearly $120B in the past year and spent half of it on US-made arms — Politico. 1/ Image
Trump demanded that allies raise defense spending from 2 percent of GDP to 5 percent, or risk losing US protection altogether.

He has often threatened to quit the alliance if they fall short. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth tied higher spending to faster US arms sales. 2/
NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte said Europe supports 110,000 American jobs through $300B in orders for US weapons.

The United Kingdom and Germany announced plans to build US weapons under license in their own factories, just days before the Ankara summit opens. 3/
Read 8 tweets
Jul 7
Greek shipping companies made $4B moving Russian oil while G7 states tried to cut the Kremlin’s energy cash.

The trade stayed legal under the price cap. The money kept flowing anyway, — FT. 1/ Image
Dynacom Tankers made the most — $915M from Russian crude since July 2023.

Olympic Shipping, part of the Onassis Group — $404M.
Stealth Maritime and Polembros each made more than $200M. 2/
Eight of the top 20 companies earning from Russian oil shipments are Greek.

The rest are mostly Russian state-linked firms, including Sovcomflot and Rosnefteflot structures. 3/
Read 9 tweets
Jul 7
Europe is preparing for the once-unthinkable — defending the continent against Russia with little or no US help.

NATO's plans from a year ago assumed the US would carry nearly 40% of the warfighting burden. This share now almost certain to shrink after year of lost trust in Trump, — FT. 1/Image
The shift is driven by a string of shocks.
Trump's threat to take Greenland by force, cancelled US troop deployments, a national security strategy hostile to Europe, and recriminations over the lack of European support for his war in Iran. 2/
Replacing US assets — intelligence, air defence, refuelling, reconnaissance — needs faster spending. Germany hits 3.5% of GDP by 2029, but France and the UK are off track at ~2.5% and 2.7%, and even Berlin lacks a long-term funding plan. 3/
Read 10 tweets
Jul 7
EU’s 21st sanctions package could hit 90 more Russian banks, pushing banned lenders past 100 — over half of Russia’s internationally connected financial institutions.

A confidential European report warns of an explosive banking crisis, United24. 1/ Image
Russia’s Economy Ministry cut GDP growth forecasts: 2026 to 0.4% from 1.3%, and 2027 to 1.4% from 2.8%.
The report says 10% of corporate loans look questionable; in 2025, bad retail loans at several large banks hit 15%. 2/
More than 500,000 Russians declared bankruptcy, up nearly one-third from the previous year.
State-sponsored programs pushed over 13mn Russians to hold at least 3 loans at once. Cash outside banks rose over 17% YoY to more than $243bn. 3/
Read 7 tweets
Jul 7
Rutte: Russia's war machine is not unstoppable.

Right now, Ukraine is changing the dynamics on the battlefield, thanks to the bravery, the dedication, and ingenuity of its armed forces — United24. 1/ Image
Rutte spoke on July 6 at a press conference in Ankara, ahead of the 2026 summit and its latest support for Kyiv.
He tied Ukraine's front-line progress to its soldiers, naming their courage, commitment, and inventiveness as the qualities driving the shift against Moscow. 2/
Rutte made the same case on June 17 at the Ukraine Defense Contact Group, telling allies Kyiv is proving Russia can be beaten.
Russia's offensive momentum has slowed, and Ukrainian commanders describe Moscow's forces as degraded and unable to mount major breakthroughs. 3/
Read 6 tweets

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