Thread by @alex_valaitis

🔮Prediction: Zuck's new app will be shut down in 12 months or less.

Everyone seems to think it will be the Twitter killer, but that couldn't be further from the truth.

Here's how I think it plays out... https://t.co/B9raBIXSpgtwitter.com/i/web/status/1…

Let's first begin by understanding WHY Zuck decided to strike at Twitter right now

He senses weakness because:

-Many brands/journalists/media outlets do not like Elon's politics

-There's been some recent stumbles at Twitter (rate limiting)

-Twitter's debt limits its options

He believes that if he can win, he will receive the following:

-More lock-in from brands (who will become dependent on the Meta app ecosystem)

-New revenue channel (brands can advertise on Threads)

-More text-based data to train Meta's AI models on

However, what most people don't understand is that 🧵's is a NEGATIVELY asymmetric bet for Meta.

Here's what I mean...

To the upside:

If 🧵's were to 100% takeover Twitter's market share, it would only mean an incremental $4-6 billion in revenue.

Meanwhile, Meta did nearly $120 billion in revenue in 2022.

Which means this would only increase revenue 4% in the perfect case!

To the downside:

Since Meta is seeding Threads with its Instagram users, there's a risk that it could HURT Instagram engagement.

Instagram is Meta's golden goose, with some people expecting it to generate upwards of $50 billion by the end of 2023.

This means that an even modest amount of sessions drop-off from Instagram, could wipe out the entire upside of 🧵's revenue (in the best case).

That is why I think concentrating on 🧵's users is the wrong #

I GUARANTEE the execs are more focused on the Instagram sessions #

This brings us to the key flaw in the 🧵's plan:

It cannot rely on just its existing Instagram social graph for engagement.

It NEEDS to bring over users from Twitter.

But this will not work. Let's put together the final pieces...

The entire reason that Twitter has thrived over all of these years, is that they serve segments & enable conversations other platforms won't touch:

-Intellectual content/Industry leaders
-Anonymous accounts
-Nudity/Adult creators
-Politics/News

https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1678090467710214144?s=20

In order to take Twitter users, 🧵's would have to cater to these creators and use cases.

But the head of Instagram/🧵's is already stating that they WON'T support this type of content.

In fact, they are actively working AGAINST it.

So to summarize:

-🧵's will be seeded with Instagram users (who will quickly get bored)

-🧵's will try to attract Twitter users but fail

-🧵's will be shut down less than 12 months from now to protect Instagram's core business

To get even more specific, I believe that 🧵's will be integrated back into the Instagram product as a feature.

Similar to how Stories and Reels exist on Instagram.

Some PM will be stuck with the job of sunsetting 🧵's and learn a lot

(I was this guy at LinkedIn 😂)

There's one final 4D chess move here to consider...

Which is that even if 🧵's shuts down, Zuck will still consider it a win.

That is because, the REAL reason he launched 🧵's, was to have more text-based content to train Meta's AI models on:

https://twitter.com/alex_valaitis/status/1677396821964881920?s=20

What do you think of my prediction? Let me know in the comments.

Also, please consider:

1) Following me @alex_valaitis
2) RT/Like/Comment the first tweet for visibility

https://twitter.com/alex_valaitis/status/1678146083145359362?s=20

Also worth noting, I've seen similar situations play out in big tech 2 times in my career:

1) Intuit tried to launch a Credit Karma killer called 'Turbo'.

It drove 10s of millions of downloads during tax season, then was shut down less than two years later.

2) LinkedIn… twitter.com/i/web/status/1…