Thread by @FRHoffmann1

BREAKING: Exactly two months after the UK announced the delivery of Storm Shadow cruise missiles to Ukraine, Macron stated that 🇫🇷 would follow suit and deliver the French equivalent “SCALP-EG”. Here is a thread with everything you need to know about the implications: 👇🧵1/12

First, and most importantly, numbers: I estimate that 🇫🇷 currently has a stockpile of 440-460 SCALP-EG missiles. 🇫🇷 has procured approximately 500 missiles over the last two decades, but also used them repeatedly, most recently against 🇸🇾 chemical weapons facilities in 2018. 2/

It is unclear what part of France’s SCALP-EG stockpile is currently operational. Of Germany’s Taurus stockpile only 150 of 600 are reported operational, for example. It is likely that a larger share of France’s SCALP-EG arsenal is currently operational. 3/ thedrive.com/the-war-zone/g…

A conservative estimate is that France will donate at least 10-20% of its SCALP-EG stockpile to Ukraine. This would provide Ukraine with some 45-90 additional long-range strike weapons. It is possible that France donates more, but this depends on French contingency planning. 4/

In terms of capability, SCALP-EG is very similar to Storm Shadow, given that the two were developed jointly in the late 1990s. Minor discrepancies may still exist, for example in terms of the warhead and guidance systems. The overall capability profile is the same, however. 5/

SCALP-EG is equipped with a 450 kg multi-effect warhead that combines a primary shaped charge and a secondary follow-on warhead in the form of a penetrator. SCALP-EG is guided by a mix of midcourse and terminal guidance systems that provide the missile with pinpoint accuracy. 6/

As such, SCALP-EG, similar to Storm Shadow, maximizes damage against high-value pinpoint targets, including hardened and buried ones. This being said, SCALP-EG is also highly effective against softer targets, such as warehouses or troop bases. 7/

Different versions of SCALP-EG exist with different range ceilings (300-550 km). Ukraine will likely receive a SCALP-EG variant at the lower end of the range spectrum. It is also possible that Ukraine has promised not to use SCALP-EG against targets outside Ukraine. 8/

What’s the crucial part of the story: Right now it’s all about numbers. The UK can only provide Ukraine with a limited number of Storm Shadow cruise missiles. That’s why it’s so important that additional countries provide long-range strike weapons to Ukraine. 9/

France stepping up is therefore a significant development. Ukraine will hope that this entices other states to follow suit, most notably the United States in regard to ATACMS. ATACMS would complement Ukraine’s capability profile very well. 10/

https://twitter.com/FRHoffmann1/status/1675920350046048256

Given that both France and the UK are now delivering long-range strike weapons to Ukraine, the air around Germany gets thinner. Pressure has been building up over the last two months to follow suit and to deliver Taurus cruise missiles to Ukraine. 11/

Let’s hope Germany will clear the delivery soon. However, it is likely that Germany that will not move before the United States has made a decision. 12/