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Madi Kapparov Profile picture
@MuKappa
Jul 11 • 4 tweets • 1 min read Twitter logo Read on Twitter
In a country with imperialist views as the norm and deeply ingrained views of russian ethnic exceptionalism in their culture, russia cannot have an opposition that even remotely resembles its counterparts in the West. 1/
Adding the layers of a *still* extractive economy with colonies (regions) governed from a metropole (Moscow), corruption as a feature of the governance system, and systemic poverty as an oppression tool no true opposition capable of transformative reforms in russia may emerge. 2/
Thus, @NATO let me ask you this, I know you have some of the brightest people in your ranks and advising you on russian matters: whose genius idea was it to let @Kasparov63 speak? Why was navalny's team even allowed on the summit grounds? 3/3
P.S. I think many missed the point - letting anyone from the ru opposition speak at a NATO summit sends a strong negative signal to Ukraine. To put it plainly, it was a d*ck move.

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More from @MuKappa

Madi Kapparov Profile picture
Jul 13
Before I make my attempt at imagining post-war Russia, it is necessary to explain why a parliamentary system would not work. Such a system is sometimes proposed by @navalny and @khodorkovsky_en without explaining how to implement such a system. 1/
So why would the proposed parliamentary system fail? It would fail to achieve the desired democratization and turn Russia into a peaceful neighbor because that would require true decentralization from Moscow. That can never happen without at least a partial collapse. 2/
First, let's talk about the economic reasons. The Russian Federation is set up as a contiguous colonial land empire, as were the prior versions of the Russian empire. While other European empires had their colonies in faraway lands, Russia captured its neighbors. 3/
Read 25 tweets
Madi Kapparov Profile picture
Jul 10
What of Kara-Murza? There are few things that are commendable about him and few things that raise a few questions. For instance, his work as a foreign corresponded for Kommersant and his time at Echo of Moscow.
Another one is the Magnitsky Act. Let me explain. 1/
The Magnitsky Act was a good initiative to punish russian officials involved in the death of Sergei Magnitsky. However, consider the long title: Russia and Moldova Jackson–Vanik Repeal and Sergei Magnitsky Rule of Law Accountability Act of 2012. 2/
The Magnitsky Act came as a packaged deal with the repeal of the Jackson-Vanik amendment to the Trade Act of 1974. It was introduced against the USSR (and other countries) as punishment for restricting freedom of Jewish emigration and other human rights. 3/
Read 5 tweets
Madi Kapparov Profile picture
Jul 6
Kazakhstan Update: under information attack

A few "civil rights activists" and "opposition" figures from Kazakhstan continue speaking of the Kazakh government aiding russia in bypassing sanctions without providing evidence. This is part of russia's policy of energy sabotage. 1/
I won't get into the minutia explaining the personalities involved. Those who know Kazakh domestic politics understand that the self-proclaimed leader of the opposition, Ablyazov, is opposition in-name only and doesn't shy away from parroting the Kremlin when it suits him. 2/
The focus is the European energy policy and how it ties into the russian invasion of Ukraine. Let's go through a sequence of events over the past few months. 3/
Read 13 tweets
Madi Kapparov Profile picture
Jun 24
Some reflections on the events in russia of the past 24 hours.
Prigozhin struck a deal with the Kremlin via Lukashenko. The criminal charges against him have been dropped and he gets to leave for Belarus. Lukashenko likely did not take part in the said negotiations. 1/
However, the Kremlin cannot admit to having negotiated with the mutineers. It grants them legitimacy and elevates Prigozhin's public image. Using Lukashenko achieves the opposite - Lukashenko was allowed to "handle" it as the Kremlin was not too "concerned" with the rebellion. 2/
Most. if not all, Wagnerites had pending criminal charges against them even before the attempted coup. So the situation for them does not change much. Now they became a lot more disposable, especially those who took part in the events. 3/
Read 15 tweets
Madi Kapparov Profile picture
Jun 11
There will be no "popular uprising" in russia

Hundreds of thousands of ru have perished, their economy continues to degrade, and there are hints of succession planning (e.g. statements by Nadezhdin and Zatulin). 1/ Aug 1991, anti-GKChP protes...
Protests become more likely but there will be no revolution aimed at democratic reforms.
There will be, however, a coup toppling the current regime. 2/
It is impossible to predict who exactly it would be, but it will be someone from the existing power structure and in all likelihood a group of siloviks (intelligence services or law enforcement, not the military). 3/
Read 51 tweets
Madi Kapparov Profile picture
Jun 1
From Housaper, August 1951:
"Purges in Caucasus, Central Asia; Russification Campaign Underway
Extensive purges are taking place in the universities and cultural centers of the Caucasian and Central Asian republics of the USSR. The purpose of these purges is to neutralize... Image
"nationalistic and racial influences which are still alive. Special emphasis is placed upon the persecution of non-Russian intellectuals, writers, and artists, attributing to them ideological deviations."
"The USSR has started an intensive propaganda campaign to instill "Russian spirit" in the peoples of the USSR republics, "to make the various groups like the Russians and accept their leadership and guidance." It is impressed on them daily that the Russians are... Image
Read 5 tweets

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