Russia's ambitions do not stop at Ukraine.

The strong sense of irredentism and imperial revanchism in Russia has been laid bare to the world. To most since 2022, to some since 2014, and to few since 1994. 1/ The Russian invasion of Ukraine makes no economic sense and Russia's national security concerns have been debunked repeatedly (e.g. ). 2/chathamhouse.org/2021/05/myths-…

10,000-foot view of the current situation in the context of the Russian invasion of Ukraine 🧵 The Kremlin’s objectives in Ukraine remain unchanged:
1. Maximize territorial gains in Ukraine. The bare minimum was expressed in the sham referenda of September 2022 aiming to absorb the Kherson, Zaporizhzhia, Donetsk, and Luhansk oblasts in addition to...

A timeline thread on Gorbachev's and Yeltsin's "liberal" eras: 16–19 December 1986 – Almaty/Shymkent/Pavlodar/Karagandy/Taldykorgan, Kazakh SSR, protests against Moscow replacing Konaev, an ethnic Kazakh, with Kolbin, an ethnic Russian from Nizhny Tagil (up to 2000 protestors killed), start of the Soviet collapse

While everyone in the West is surprised by the absurdity of Russian claims linking ISIS to Ukraine it is best to understand that the primary target audience is the Russian public. That specific narrative is not new and has long been in the running since around 2015. 1/ Just a few days before the Crocus City Hall attack on March 19 Regnum, a Russian outlet identified by Estonian intelligence as the Kremlin's foreign policy tool (), published an article on Abdul Hakim al Shishani (aka Rustam Azhiev). 2/ inosmi.ru/20051019/22312…

If you don't know what Ukraine DAO is then this thread is not for you.

I was a contributor at Ukraine DAO's "info pod" aiming to combat russian propaganda and disinformation between June and September 2022. I left the DAO in September but continued interacting with Alona until January 2023. I first encountered Alona Shevchenko on the Walter Report spaces in April 2022.

Navalny team's call to participate in Russia's upcoming sham elections needs discussion. 1/

https://x.com/teamnavalny/status/1765409635777880344?s=20

First, the obvious.

The use of the official leaflet is in extremely poor taste. The V chevron in the Russian tricolor in the leaflet is one of the current symbols of the Russian war of aggression against Ukraine. But it has a longer history - Belogvardeitsy used it... 2/

The Baltic states are the next likely target for Russia. The Russians keep testing NATO's boundaries: missiles landing in Poland, Romanian airspace violations, cable cuts targeting Finland, GPS jamming over Poland and the Baltics, etc. So far there has been no salient response from any of the NATO members that could end Russia's…

To Trust or Not to Trust?

It is all too often that someone claiming to be an expert is perceived as such without much scrutiny. 1/44 When it comes to such matters as movie reviews or cake recipes the cost of trusting a false expert is minimal and is usually measured in minutes of boredom or wasted ingredients. 2/44

Rosatom is still not sanctioned. @RUSI_org published a report analyzing Russia’s nuclear energy exports, an industry that is dominated by the state-owned conglomerate, Rosatom (). 1/ static.rusi.org/RUSI-Russian-E…
It was followed up with a note on the world’s dependence on Russia’s U-235, isotope of uranium necessary for nuclear energy and weapons production (). 2/static.rusi.org/RUSI-Russian-E…

The Kremlin has a "collective West." The Russian "liberal" opposition has a "collective Putin." The same Russian opposition, for their most part, offer a lucrative deal with the Russian population. They, as eternal victims of their own making through inaction and mob mentality... are offered a way out. "Виновные уже назначены" or the guilty are already appointed. It is Putin, the "minorities," Russophobia, and the ever elusive international cabals. But it is certainly not them, not russkiye. They have friends in the West who help them.

This is a major development - regional town and cities are ordered to introduce price caps to stem the tide of inflationary pressures. This is very similar to the measures introduced by the USSR in the late 80s and the Russian Federation in the early 90s. 1/ https://t.co/tS2ftLRRi2

https://twitter.com/MoniqueCamarra/status/1689219532903059456

Econ 101: price caps eliminate the possibility of having a free market defined equilibrium price and equilibrium quantity. With lower supply and higher demand at the state mandated price cap the market for a good (e.g. soap) will experience shortages. 2/

All or not all: on pro-war sentiments in Russia and collective responsibility

Almost a year and a half into the full-scale invasion of Ukraine by Russia the debate on popular support for the war in Russia continues. 1/ A particularly thorny issue for the many Russia experts is collective guilt and responsibility. The two are closely related topics. Let’s discuss support for the war first.

I personally like citing the Levada polls. It is an easy visual representation. 2/

Before I make my attempt at imagining post-war Russia, it is necessary to explain why a parliamentary system would not work. Such a system is sometimes proposed by @navalny and @khodorkovsky_en without explaining how to implement such a system. 1/

https://twitter.com/MuKappa/status/1667916817342373889?s=20

So why would the proposed parliamentary system fail? It would fail to achieve the desired democratization and turn Russia into a peaceful neighbor because that would require true decentralization from Moscow. That can never happen without at least a partial collapse. 2/

In a country with imperialist views as the norm and deeply ingrained views of russian ethnic exceptionalism in their culture, russia cannot have an opposition that even remotely resembles its counterparts in the West. 1/ Adding the layers of a *still* extractive economy with colonies (regions) governed from a metropole (Moscow), corruption as a feature of the governance system, and systemic poverty as an oppression tool no true opposition capable of transformative reforms in russia may emerge. 2/

What of Kara-Murza? There are few things that are commendable about him and few things that raise a few questions. For instance, his work as a foreign corresponded for Kommersant and his time at Echo of Moscow.
Another one is the Magnitsky Act. Let me explain. 1/

https://twitter.com/hugh_kraine/status/1678488224925118478

The Magnitsky Act was a good initiative to punish russian officials involved in the death of Sergei Magnitsky. However, consider the long title: Russia and Moldova Jackson–Vanik Repeal and Sergei Magnitsky Rule of Law Accountability Act of 2012. 2/

Kazakhstan Update: under information attack

A few "civil rights activists" and "opposition" figures from Kazakhstan continue speaking of the Kazakh government aiding russia in bypassing sanctions without providing evidence. This is part of russia's policy of energy sabotage. 1/ I won't get into the minutia explaining the personalities involved. Those who know Kazakh domestic politics understand that the self-proclaimed leader of the opposition, Ablyazov, is opposition in-name only and doesn't shy away from parroting the Kremlin when it suits him. 2/

Some reflections on the events in russia of the past 24 hours.
Prigozhin struck a deal with the Kremlin via Lukashenko. The criminal charges against him have been dropped and he gets to leave for Belarus. Lukashenko likely did not take part in the said negotiations. 1/ However, the Kremlin cannot admit to having negotiated with the mutineers. It grants them legitimacy and elevates Prigozhin's public image. Using Lukashenko achieves the opposite - Lukashenko was allowed to "handle" it as the Kremlin was not too "concerned" with the rebellion. 2/

There will be no "popular uprising" in russia

Hundreds of thousands of ru have perished, their economy continues to degrade, and there are hints of succession planning (e.g. statements by Nadezhdin and Zatulin). 1/ Protests become more likely but there will be no revolution aimed at democratic reforms.
There will be, however, a coup toppling the current regime. 2/

From Housaper, August 1951:
"Purges in Caucasus, Central Asia; Russification Campaign Underway
Extensive purges are taking place in the universities and cultural centers of the Caucasian and Central Asian republics of the USSR. The purpose of these purges is to neutralize... "nationalistic and racial influences which are still alive. Special emphasis is placed upon the persecution of non-Russian intellectuals, writers, and artists, attributing to them ideological deviations."

Russian “Opposition” and Western Supposition: The Persistence of Unfreedom

First things first, is there opposition in Russia? Yes, there is. But not the kind one might expect. 1/133 This thread will only scratch the surface looking into the past, analyzing the present, and pointing out the caveats of working with the opposition in Russia. 2/133

russian ethnofascism is still misunderstood.
russia embraced the ethnofascist ideology but it is not analogous to nazi germany. The NSDAP was terrifyingly efficient at propaganda with a relatively narrow focus and a set of objectives to build their "ideal" society. russia on the other hand builds off centuries-long cultural propaganda of russian superiority layering it with contemporary nonsense you see right now. That's why russian propaganda is not centered around a single well-defined ideology, it has no specific set of goals.