Over the past week, we have witnessed the Armed Forces of Ukraine providing humanitarian aid and treating with respect Russian civilians in the occupied territories of Kursk Oblast. The same civilians that Moscow abandoned. 1/ The civilians who managed to flee deeper into the Russian territory had to do so on their own. Though the Kremlin promised to pay them 10,000 rubles (~100 USD) many still struggle to get a government paycheck. 2/

There are many threads explaining the political implications of Ukraine's advance in Russia. It is too early to say anything meaningful and the situation is very fluid. However, let's get some misconceptions out of the way. 1/ 1. Civil discontent in Russia - does not matter. "Goryaschie perdaki" [upset] Russian war "journalists" and influencers - do not matter. There is panic in Kursk, Lipetsk, Bilhorod oblasts. Moscow's population seems to be unphased, yet. And it is the city that matters the most. 2/

Russian mainstream media is still figuring out how to spin the Ukrainian advance into Kursk. The Kremlin so far provided little commentary. Much like with Prigozhin's mutiny, it would seem that they didn't plan for this contingency. Here's an evolution of their headlines on Lenta, a Russian news aggregator, over the past three days.
1. lenta.ru/news/2024/08/0…

Given the increasing number of strange incidents across Europe, here is an ongoing thread "Guess the perpetrator: Finland edition."

Compiled with the help from @Nina_Lindfors 1/ June 2023, mass poisoning of pets. CEO of the company distributing pet food, David Rönnberg, was at one point a candidate for sanctions by Ukraine. He previously was on the board of directors of Detsky Mir, a large Russian retailer. 2/yle.fi/a/74-20058877

Russia's ambitions do not stop at Ukraine.

The strong sense of irredentism and imperial revanchism in Russia has been laid bare to the world. To most since 2022, to some since 2014, and to few since 1994. 1/ The Russian invasion of Ukraine makes no economic sense and Russia's national security concerns have been debunked repeatedly (e.g. ). 2/chathamhouse.org/2021/05/myths-…

10,000-foot view of the current situation in the context of the Russian invasion of Ukraine 🧵 The Kremlin’s objectives in Ukraine remain unchanged:
1. Maximize territorial gains in Ukraine. The bare minimum was expressed in the sham referenda of September 2022 aiming to absorb the Kherson, Zaporizhzhia, Donetsk, and Luhansk oblasts in addition to...

A timeline thread on Gorbachev's and Yeltsin's "liberal" eras: 16–19 December 1986 – Almaty/Shymkent/Pavlodar/Karagandy/Taldykorgan, Kazakh SSR, protests against Moscow replacing Konaev, an ethnic Kazakh, with Kolbin, an ethnic Russian from Nizhny Tagil (up to 2000 protestors killed), start of the Soviet collapse

While everyone in the West is surprised by the absurdity of Russian claims linking ISIS to Ukraine it is best to understand that the primary target audience is the Russian public. That specific narrative is not new and has long been in the running since around 2015. 1/ Just a few days before the Crocus City Hall attack on March 19 Regnum, a Russian outlet identified by Estonian intelligence as the Kremlin's foreign policy tool (), published an article on Abdul Hakim al Shishani (aka Rustam Azhiev). 2/ inosmi.ru/20051019/22312…

If you don't know what Ukraine DAO is then this thread is not for you.

I was a contributor at Ukraine DAO's "info pod" aiming to combat russian propaganda and disinformation between June and September 2022. I left the DAO in September but continued interacting with Alona until January 2023. I first encountered Alona Shevchenko on the Walter Report spaces in April 2022.

Navalny team's call to participate in Russia's upcoming sham elections needs discussion. 1/

https://x.com/teamnavalny/status/1765409635777880344?s=20

First, the obvious.

The use of the official leaflet is in extremely poor taste. The V chevron in the Russian tricolor in the leaflet is one of the current symbols of the Russian war of aggression against Ukraine. But it has a longer history - Belogvardeitsy used it... 2/

The Baltic states are the next likely target for Russia. The Russians keep testing NATO's boundaries: missiles landing in Poland, Romanian airspace violations, cable cuts targeting Finland, GPS jamming over Poland and the Baltics, etc. So far there has been no salient response from any of the NATO members that could end Russia's…

To Trust or Not to Trust?

It is all too often that someone claiming to be an expert is perceived as such without much scrutiny. 1/44 When it comes to such matters as movie reviews or cake recipes the cost of trusting a false expert is minimal and is usually measured in minutes of boredom or wasted ingredients. 2/44

Rosatom is still not sanctioned. @RUSI_org published a report analyzing Russia’s nuclear energy exports, an industry that is dominated by the state-owned conglomerate, Rosatom (). 1/ static.rusi.org/RUSI-Russian-E…
It was followed up with a note on the world’s dependence on Russia’s U-235, isotope of uranium necessary for nuclear energy and weapons production (). 2/static.rusi.org/RUSI-Russian-E…

The Kremlin has a "collective West." The Russian "liberal" opposition has a "collective Putin." The same Russian opposition, for their most part, offer a lucrative deal with the Russian population. They, as eternal victims of their own making through inaction and mob mentality... are offered a way out. "Виновные уже назначены" or the guilty are already appointed. It is Putin, the "minorities," Russophobia, and the ever elusive international cabals. But it is certainly not them, not russkiye. They have friends in the West who help them.

This is a major development - regional town and cities are ordered to introduce price caps to stem the tide of inflationary pressures. This is very similar to the measures introduced by the USSR in the late 80s and the Russian Federation in the early 90s. 1/ https://t.co/tS2ftLRRi2

https://twitter.com/MoniqueCamarra/status/1689219532903059456

Econ 101: price caps eliminate the possibility of having a free market defined equilibrium price and equilibrium quantity. With lower supply and higher demand at the state mandated price cap the market for a good (e.g. soap) will experience shortages. 2/

All or not all: on pro-war sentiments in Russia and collective responsibility

Almost a year and a half into the full-scale invasion of Ukraine by Russia the debate on popular support for the war in Russia continues. 1/ A particularly thorny issue for the many Russia experts is collective guilt and responsibility. The two are closely related topics. Let’s discuss support for the war first.

I personally like citing the Levada polls. It is an easy visual representation. 2/

Before I make my attempt at imagining post-war Russia, it is necessary to explain why a parliamentary system would not work. Such a system is sometimes proposed by @navalny and @khodorkovsky_en without explaining how to implement such a system. 1/

https://twitter.com/MuKappa/status/1667916817342373889?s=20

So why would the proposed parliamentary system fail? It would fail to achieve the desired democratization and turn Russia into a peaceful neighbor because that would require true decentralization from Moscow. That can never happen without at least a partial collapse. 2/

In a country with imperialist views as the norm and deeply ingrained views of russian ethnic exceptionalism in their culture, russia cannot have an opposition that even remotely resembles its counterparts in the West. 1/ Adding the layers of a *still* extractive economy with colonies (regions) governed from a metropole (Moscow), corruption as a feature of the governance system, and systemic poverty as an oppression tool no true opposition capable of transformative reforms in russia may emerge. 2/

What of Kara-Murza? There are few things that are commendable about him and few things that raise a few questions. For instance, his work as a foreign corresponded for Kommersant and his time at Echo of Moscow.
Another one is the Magnitsky Act. Let me explain. 1/

https://twitter.com/hugh_kraine/status/1678488224925118478

The Magnitsky Act was a good initiative to punish russian officials involved in the death of Sergei Magnitsky. However, consider the long title: Russia and Moldova Jackson–Vanik Repeal and Sergei Magnitsky Rule of Law Accountability Act of 2012. 2/

Kazakhstan Update: under information attack

A few "civil rights activists" and "opposition" figures from Kazakhstan continue speaking of the Kazakh government aiding russia in bypassing sanctions without providing evidence. This is part of russia's policy of energy sabotage. 1/ I won't get into the minutia explaining the personalities involved. Those who know Kazakh domestic politics understand that the self-proclaimed leader of the opposition, Ablyazov, is opposition in-name only and doesn't shy away from parroting the Kremlin when it suits him. 2/

Some reflections on the events in russia of the past 24 hours.
Prigozhin struck a deal with the Kremlin via Lukashenko. The criminal charges against him have been dropped and he gets to leave for Belarus. Lukashenko likely did not take part in the said negotiations. 1/ However, the Kremlin cannot admit to having negotiated with the mutineers. It grants them legitimacy and elevates Prigozhin's public image. Using Lukashenko achieves the opposite - Lukashenko was allowed to "handle" it as the Kremlin was not too "concerned" with the rebellion. 2/