Thread by @MassDara

Dysfunction is reaching peak levels in the Russian military command as another general is sacked for speaking truth to power and others are detained, or under suspicion. Where incompetence meets betrayal: a thread of the Russian high command and implications for the front /1

Rumors are still swirling that a house cleaning may or may not be underway inside the military in the aftermath of the Prigozhin rebellion. Thoughts on how bad it has become in the Russian high command to get to this point, in the middle of the UAF offensive. 2/

Gerasimov and Shoigu have a history of privately and publicly kicking around their subordinate for various infractions: understanding the tactical situation better (Surovikin), perhaps too popular with the men or trusted by Putin (Teplinskiy) or flag urgent problems (Popov) /3

Last year Surovikin as commander put Russian forces on the defensive and ordered the construction of the defensive networks which bear his name (Surovikin lines). But Putin wanted an offensive and so he was out. Here’s a thread about that tension/ 4

https://twitter.com/MassDara/status/1633153522236628992?s=20

Teplinsky, the other deputy commander and popular within the VDV, is another. He disappeared for a few months, with rumors he disagreed with the high command, only to remerge with Putin. Teplinskiy is responsible for overseeing/improving many of the defensive positions. /5

Here’s an overview of the Teplinskiy / Gerasimov issues from @KatStepanenko @TheStudyofWar /6.

https://twitter.com/KatStepanenko/status/1669389191136804871?s=20

Now that Surovikin is MIA for 3 weeks, my working theory is that there is no one in Rostov HQ to absorb Gerasimov’s moods and bad ideas. Teplinskiy is in the field most likely, and Alexei Kim is silent. So now the operational group commanders experience Gerasimov more directly/7

Enter Popov. His command, 58th Army, (Southern MD) has been engaged for over a month in the Zaporizhzhia where the fighting is the most intense (Rabotine, Orikhiv etc, 42nd GMRD, other regiments like 70th, 291st, and the 1430th). /8

Popov is sacked, in his words, for speaking truthfully about his units difficult situation. They have defended against the offensive for a month with no rotation, and have problems with logistics, counterbattery and recon. /9

https://twitter.com/Teoyaomiquu/status/1679239805094313987?s=20

They do have mounting problems with rotations and reserve units which that are conducted very inconsistently across the front. @ISW can see it and noted it here: /10 understandingwar.org/backgrounder/r…

Popov's command 58th Army also had its deputy commander killed this week by Storm Shadow strike in Berdyansk, and presumably other HQ staff killed this week too, adding to the chaos. /11 bbc.com/news/world-eur…

As a commander it is his responsibility to voice these concerns given the strain to his units. Not many of his colleagues do. Popov claims that Shoigu drew up orders to relieve him within 1 day and that they are betrayed by their senior commanders. this is very rare to hear. /12

Russian channels claim that Gerasimov was angry that Popov’s report was "spreading alarmism,” or blackmail, i.e., pointing out real problems observable to all. Perhaps he tried to jump the command chain but we don't know. /13

What’s different about this event to me is that there is a recording, promoted by a former deputy commander of the Southern MD. And Popov says what a lot of his colleagues know to be true: the incompetence of the Russian high command at this point is a betrayal of the army /14

To recap: exactly where on the front that Russian forces need relief, Shoigu/Gerasimov sack their commander for saying so in direct terms. Popov has enough and posts a message. In doing do, he could either inspire others to speak out, or keep their heads down. /15

Kartapolov, who yesterday said Surovikin is on 'vacation', said this: “the important skill of any boss is to see problems and hear subordinates […] I think those who are supposed to have heard seen and will take action." They did indeed take action - by shooting the messenger.

Making waves or demandsgets you in trouble. Compare to how incompetent generals are treated who don’t push back and get their units killed. they get posted to other commands or Syria, like Lapin or Chaiko. Or perform on camera. /17

https://twitter.com/MassDara/status/1668684835789914115?s=20

The Russians have one of their most combat experienced and notorious 4-star generals with roots inside the army and air force, last seen with no ranks on, MIA for 3 weeks post rebellion, while no one speaks of it. Of course it impacts the rank and file in the military. /18

But here is the issue. Minefields do not care about Russian command dysfunction. Dense minefields laid months ago are hard for Ukrainian forces to get through while being shelled. If they cannot get to Russian lines, they cannot exploit any disarray. /19

This story from @olliecarroll explains the difficulties and extreme conditions for UAF sappers. /20 economist.com/europe/2023/07…

As Popov said, senior commanders stab them in the back “treacherously & vilely decapitating the army at the most tense and difficult moment.” Gerasimov smiles publicly when the boss comes around; he's Putin's choice. So кто виноват/who is guilty? How is this worth fighting for?/x