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ISW Profile picture
@TheStudyofWar
Jul 14 • 5 tweets • 2 min read Twitter logo Read on Twitter
#Popov’s attempt to directly appeal to #Putin for support and his insubordination of #Gerasimov’s command is indicative of a pattern of corrosive behavior that has developed within the Russian command and the Russian forces fighting in #Ukraine.🧵
https://t.co/eNSTJfZoypisw.pub/UkrWar071323
2/ #Popov’s and Teplinsky’s attempts to prompt #Putin to act against #Gerasimov are reminiscent of #Prigozhin’s June 24 rebellion, during which #Wagner forces attempted to force Putin to remove Gerasimov and #Shoigu.
3/ Three prominent figures within the Russian war effort in #Ukraine (Teplinsky, #Prigozhin, and #Popov) have now attempted to weaken #Gerasimov and #Shoigu’s authority due to a deep concern about the attrition of their forces...
4/ ...and have attempted to use their responsibility over key sectors of the front to go outside of the chain of command to compel the #Kremlin to act in their favor. isw.pub/UkrWar071323
5/ ISW has previously assessed that public disagreements between Russian forces in #Ukraine over supplies and combat tasks and the Russian MoD's apparent need to negotiate with subordinate commanders on these issues suggest that there are severe chain of command problems.

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More from @TheStudyofWar

ISW Profile picture
Jul 16
NEW: The reported dismissal of the commander of #Russia's 106th Guards Airborne (VDV) Division may be a part of an ongoing purge of insubordinate commanders and may suggest that the corrosion of the Russian chain of command in #Ukraine is accelerating.🧵
https://t.co/YTREIaJhrwisw.pub/UkrWar071523



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2/ Russian sources reported on July 15 that the Russian military command dismissed 106th Guards Airborne (VDV) Division Commander Major General Vladimir Seliverstov.
3/ Russian sources stated that the reason for Seliverstov’s dismissal is currently unknown but speculated that it could be associated with Seliverstov’s reputation for speaking up on behalf of his soldiers.
Read 17 tweets
ISW Profile picture
Jul 14
NEW: #Russian President Vladimir Putin further indicated he intends to maintain the #Wagner Group as a cohesive fighting force rather than breaking it up. He seeks to separate #Prigozhin from the Wagner leadership and forces. https://t.co/xJaqLj9DHJisw.pub/UkrWar071423



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2/ #Putin confirmed to Russian news outlet Kommersant in an interview published on July 13 that he met with #Prigozhin and 35 #Wagner commanders on June 29. isw.pub/UkrWar071423
3/ #Putin claimed that he offered #Wagner fighters the option to serve under a commander who has led Wagner forces for the last 16 months, further confirming ISW’s assessment that the #Kremlin seeks to retain Wagner as a cohesive fighting force while separating it from Prigozhin.
Read 9 tweets
ISW Profile picture
Jul 14
@AP reported on July 13 that #Russian forces and occupation administrations are conducting a wide-scale campaign to detain and abuse civilians and are planning to build additional internment infrastructure in the occupied territories of #Ukraine: https://t.co/eNSTJfZoypapnews.com/article/ukrain…
2/ @AP obtained a Russian government document dated January 2023 that outlined plans to build 25 new prison colonies and six new detention centers in occupied #Ukraine by 2026, signaling that the Russian government is likely planning to detain thousands more Ukrainian citizens.
3/ Russian plans to build new internment infrastructure in the occupied territories are consistent with #Russia’s intention to maintain long-term control of the occupied territories. isw.pub/UkrWar071323
Read 4 tweets
ISW Profile picture
Jul 14
#Popov’s dismissal over the issue of Russian casualties & reported complaints about lack of force rotations further support ISW’s assessment that Russian defenses in #Ukraine are likely brittle.🧵
https://t.co/eNSTJfZoypisw.pub/UkrWar071323
2/ ISW has previously assessed that Russian forces lack the reserves to rotate frontline units and that without operational reserves Russian forces would have to fall back to prepared defensive positions without significant support in the case of a Ukrainian breakthrough.
3/ #Popov’s complaint about Russian casualties from artillery fire likely indicates that Russian forces need rotations and reinforcements to sustain their defenses in western #Zaporizhia Oblast.
Read 6 tweets
ISW Profile picture
Jul 14
NEW: Former Commander of the 58th Combined Arms (CAA) Army Maj Gen Ivan #Popov claimed in leaked audio that RU Def. Min. #Shoigu dismissed him for expressing persistent grievances about problems on the western #Zaporizhia frontline to senior commanders.🧵
https://t.co/jmW3OqP7moisw.pub/UkrWar071323



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2/ #Popov was very likely aware that a recipient of his message in the veteran community of the 58th CAA would leak the audio recording. Popov reportedly distributed the recording to various actors including commanders, personnel, and veterans of the 58th CAA.
3/ #Popov equated himself with a rebellion leader less than a month after the #WagnerGroup rebellion, regardless of whether he intended for the recording to leak. isw.pub/UkrWar071323
Read 7 tweets
ISW Profile picture
Jul 13
Former Russian officer and ardent nationalist Igor #Girkin claimed that certain members of Russian President Vladimir #Putin’s inner circle may push Putin to end the war in order to depose him. 🧵
https://t.co/N9d5xgsMvA https://t.co/7FiVlBtoMmisw.pub/UkrWar071223

2/ #Girkin claimed that #Wagner Group financier Yevgeny #Prigozhin’s rebellion succeeded, resulting in a power redistribution according to the plans of Prigozhin’s patrons, whom Girkin suggested include...
3/ ...Presidential Administration First Deputy Chief of Staff Sergey Kiriyenko, billionaire and #Putin’s reported personal banker Yuri Kovalchuk, and energy executives Arkady and Boris Rotenberg. isw.pub/UkrWar071223
Read 11 tweets

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