Thread by @shashj

Informative podcast with @DAlperovitch reflecting on his recent trip to Ukraine. " They certainly had hopes that the Russians would not be as deeply as entrenched as they are...It's really, really tough going, they're taking enormous casualties." geopolitics-decanted.simplecast.com/episodes/trip-…

"the debate in western capitals...is often framed in the context of lands, how much land is Ukraine going to take back...debate in Ukraine is actually very different. The fundamental issue they're focused on...is how do we end this war in a way where we have durable security?"

Alperovitch: "We're meeting with someone very senior in [Ukraine's] MoD. And we asked them what are your needs. And this person said: I have just five needs and they're shells, shells, shells, shells and shells."

Alperovitch: "part of their [Ukraine] pitch to Sweden is to say...we can show you combat experience, we can do the marketing for your Gripens. Just give them to us and we'll show you how they do against Russian Air Force. They'll be great for future marketing of your aircraft."

Alperovitch: "one of the things that they [Ukraine] are very insistent on is that they want detailed manuals...for those systems so that they can maintain them to large extent themselves... we'll figure it out, we can resolve the IP issues, just help us help ourselves."

Alperovitch: "The Ukrainians...don't think that Wagner is in Belarus. They think that maybe a few dozen people have gone into Belarus. Some of them have come out since then. They don't think that Prigozhin is based in Belarus." Ukraine thinks not many Wagner signing MoD contracts

Alperovitch: "the other thing that the Ukrainians told me is that they don't think that MoD is paying salaries for Wagner anymore ... the Ukrainians believe that those payments have now stopped." Ukrainians also "don't believe that Surovikin is in jail."

Alperovitch: "the Ukrainians believe that there were some Russian pilots that ignored orders to strike the Wagner column as it was on its way to Moscow, that many in the Russian military and Rosgvardiya did not want to shoot at Wagner. And that's clearly a problem for Putin..."

Alperovitch: Ukrainians assess that operational leadership in general staff were not in favour of war. Nor was SVR. "FSB, right in the lead-up to the war, was quite luke-warm....at one point, they say that in their [FSB] briefings to Putin, Putin unloaded on them."

Alperovitch: Ukraine believes Russia "want to cause, at some point, some sort of explosion, potentially in the cooling pool [of ZNPP] where nuclear fuel rods is stored, in order not to necessarily spread radiation [but] use it as nuclear blackmail, to threaten Europe..."

Alperovitch: "Ukrainians believe that about 20,000 new [Russian] recruits are being pulled every single month. So that's providing replacement troops, after training, to be used in Ukraine...that may give them some options to delay the more general mobilisation wave"

Alperovitch: "the other thing we've learned is that [Russian] production capacity is increasing...they're believed to be producing at least a million artillery shells a year and targeting significantly more—targeting over 2mn, but the Ukrainians don't believe they'll get there."

Rob Lee:" Ukraine has not made as much territorial gains as they would want. But the thing that is quite significant & we can't really measure v. well is attrition. And there's clearly a lot of attrition going on, it's not very clear how the relative attrition is playing out..."

Rob Lee: "Russia can stand attrition in convict units pretty easily because they can replace them. If the naval infantry units or if spetsnatz brigades take heavy casualties, that could be a problem for the ability to defend going forward..here's a lot of things we can't see."