Thread by @SamRamani2

The Wagner Group's involvement in Belarus is starting to take shape

Here is what we know so far /1

The Belarusian Defence Ministry has confirmed that the Wagner Group will train and transfer experience between different branches of its armed forces

Presumably this implies that Wagner is a supplement to the Russia-Belarus regional grouping /2

The Wagner Group has been spotted instructing Belarusian forces in Asipovichy, which is located 90km southeast of Minsk

Belarus has confirmed no details about the size of Wagner's force contingent and claims it will release public updates on what they do /3

Ukraine has also reacted cautiously to the news of Wagner entering Belarus

Zelensky says he is monitoring the threat but is focused on the frontlines. Likely a way to assuage implausible concerns in Ukraine about Wagner and Belarus teaming up for an attack from the north /4

Vladimir Putin's recent comments suggest that there are divisions in Wagner's ranks

Putin claimed that many Wagner forces wanted to join the Defence Ministry under Prigozhin's command but Prigozhin opted out. Presumably, those who went to Belarus also opted out? /5

Wagner could help develop people's militias in Belarus, which Lukashenko wants to see reach 150,000

It could also discipline demoralized conscripts, as Lukashenko seeks to revive student conscription

If it does this, Belarus will likely keep Wagner in place for now /END