Several futurists have called the low birthrate crisis civilization's greatest threat. One cause is society has moved away from marriage. So, a big way to increase birth rates is by having more marriages and having them at younger ages.
A🧵. [Thanks for RTs and follows!]
First off, I don't want to sound pushy. Marriage is a great option for most (but not all) people. On average, married people are happier, healthier, live longer (both men and women), and become wealthier. (And only minority of marriages end in divorce, not most.) 2/9
Why is more and younger marriage so important for raising birth rates? (1) Many women aren't having the children they hoped to have, and age-related fertility decline (both men and women) is a big cause, and (2) People are much more likely to have children if they are married.3/9
So how to achieve more and younger marriages? Several points. First, "courtship"-type dating. What is courtship? It is where both people know from the start that they're exploring marriage. If there is a fit, things move quickly. And if there isn't, you move on quickly too! 4/9
The second point is to hit the milestones of life sooner. Anything that speeds things up can increase family formation including faster education, quicker career tracks, young people leaving the nest sooner, and better options for young homeownership. 5/9
The third point is to see marriage as the beginning of a successful life, not a capstone. A great time to marry might be after graduating from college or getting your first 'real' adult job, not after buying your dream home or finally making partner at a firm. 6/9
More reasons to marry at a younger age: (a) parenting is easier when you are young, (b) grandparents aren't yet too old to help with grandkids, and (c) it's easier to find someone and easier to merge your life with someone else's when you are younger. 7/9
Watch what successful people do, not what they say. And the most successful people usually choose marriage! 8/9
We absolutely don't want to minimize many amazing people who don't fit this model, for whatever reason.
But by shifting culture toward more and earlier marriage, we can solve the birthrate crisis and save our civilization. And make people happier, healthier and wealthier too! 9/9
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It has gone unnoticed that the most infamous school shooting in US history, the Sandy Hook shooting, may have had its origin in far left, antinatalist ideology.
Adam Lanza's recordings, found in 2021, expressed strong interest in antinatalism as well as p*dophilia. 🧵.
Adam Lanza's YouTube channel "CulturalPhilistine" was not discovered until September of 2021, some 9 years after the shooting, after public interest had waned. At the time of the shootings, Lanza's motives were a mystery.
The YouTube channel contained only audio but matched recordings of Lanza's voice. The strongest evidence that the channel belonged to Lanza is that it includes long readings from a 35-page college application essay that Lanza had submitted on the topic of p*dophilia.
Lanza's first and fourth recordings were on the topic of antinatalism and "antinatal" appears 24 times in the transcripts.
"Life is suffering" appears in the title of another recording, and this is a key part of antinatal ideology. 2/6
In his recording "antinatalism at light speed" Lanza spoke of 'activist antinatalism' - just one year before he would kill 26 children and teachers at Sandy Hook elementary.
Lanza's recordings discuss not only antinatalism, but a more extreme online ideology called efi*ism. 3/6
One of the strongest predictors of fertility for countries is how many children most people consider to be ideal.
This shows that values around children drive birthrates strongly. We also see that actual fertility (1.48) is far below what people say they desire (2.36). 🧵
Notice how strongly fertility ideals predict actual fertility, with the ideal number of children predicting 64% of a country's TFR.
Why does the US have a higher birthrate than Europe even though family policies are much more generous in the EU? A stronger desire for kids. 2/5
This also gets to the root of why Israel, alone among developed countries, manages to have above replacement fertility.
In Israel, the average 18-44-year-old sees 4 as the ideal number of children to have, far more than in other advanced countries. Truly a pronatal culture. 3/5
Published today, an important paper proposes a framework dividing total fertility rate into two component parts:
TFR = Total Maternity Rate (TMR) x Children per Mother (CPM)
This lens shows that virtually all recent declines in fertility were due to increasing childlessness. 🧵
Demographer @StephenJShaw realized that these two components of TFR, the total maternity rate (or equivalently, the childless rate) and children per mother move quite independently of each other.
That means one gets much more information from looking at both parts together. 2/6
Unsurprisingly, both lower rates of motherhood and smaller family sizes are contributors to the crisis of low birthrates.
But both factors matter since the policies helping people reach parenthood may be very different from the ones supporting or encouraging larger families. 3/6
All of China has low birthrates, but northeastern China has the lowest fertility of any region in the world, lower than South Korea. Why?
It was in these regions that the one-child policy was most rigorously enforced, completely wiping out natalism from the culture. 🧵
China's One Child Policy is gone now, and since July 2021, all birth limits have been removed.
But while the OCP was in force, millions of pregnant Chinese women experienced the tragic brutality of forced abortion, which I explored in this thread (2/5):
But why did population control hit harder in the northeast than elsewhere in 🇨🇳?
First, NE China urbanized earlier and population controllers were more powerful in cities.
Second, most people in NE China worked for state-owned enterprises, putting them directly under the CCP. 3/5
Colombia recorded only 445,000 births in 2024, way below UN projections of 701,000 births, for an official fertility rate of just 1.06 births per woman, and just 0.84 in Bogotá. (The true rate may be a little higher with unregistered births.)
Why such a dramatic collapse? 2/10
The biggest cause is the disappearance of marriage.
The rate of marriage in Colombia plunged to just 1.4 per 1000 people in 2022 according to OECD statistics, lowest in the world. (The US which has also seen a big drop still has a marriage rate 4 times as high at 6.0.)
3/10
On this Father's Day, let's think of young guys and the future.
How can young men, most of whom really want children one day, boost their odds of achieving fatherhood?
🧵!
Perhaps the first thing for young men to focus on is gaining income and building a career.
There is a strong positive relationship between a man's income and the number of children he will have.
This was true in the past and it is still true today, all over the world. 2/9
Part of this of course is that higher earning men are more attractive to women.
But even for among married men, studies find that when men earn more, they tend to have more children.
This isn't just some relic of the past. It is even more true for younger men! 3/9