Several futurists have called the low birthrate crisis civilization's greatest threat. One cause is society has moved away from marriage. So, a big way to increase birth rates is by having more marriages and having them at younger ages.
A🧵. [Thanks for RTs and follows!]
First off, I don't want to sound pushy. Marriage is a great option for most (but not all) people. On average, married people are happier, healthier, live longer (both men and women), and become wealthier. (And only minority of marriages end in divorce, not most.) 2/9
Why is more and younger marriage so important for raising birth rates? (1) Many women aren't having the children they hoped to have, and age-related fertility decline (both men and women) is a big cause, and (2) People are much more likely to have children if they are married.3/9
So how to achieve more and younger marriages? Several points. First, "courtship"-type dating. What is courtship? It is where both people know from the start that they're exploring marriage. If there is a fit, things move quickly. And if there isn't, you move on quickly too! 4/9
The second point is to hit the milestones of life sooner. Anything that speeds things up can increase family formation including faster education, quicker career tracks, young people leaving the nest sooner, and better options for young homeownership. 5/9
The third point is to see marriage as the beginning of a successful life, not a capstone. A great time to marry might be after graduating from college or getting your first 'real' adult job, not after buying your dream home or finally making partner at a firm. 6/9
More reasons to marry at a younger age: (a) parenting is easier when you are young, (b) grandparents aren't yet too old to help with grandkids, and (c) it's easier to find someone and easier to merge your life with someone else's when you are younger. 7/9
Watch what successful people do, not what they say. And the most successful people usually choose marriage! 8/9
We absolutely don't want to minimize many amazing people who don't fit this model, for whatever reason.
But by shifting culture toward more and earlier marriage, we can solve the birthrate crisis and save our civilization. And make people happier, healthier and wealthier too! 9/9
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A new map shows the last time each country in Europe reached replacement fertility.
Most western European countries, including the UK, France, Germany and Italy haven't had replacement fertility in more than 50 years.
This is the main reason for Europe's stagnation. 🧵.
This map shows the sobering fact that once a country falls below replacement, it almost never bounces back.
Eastern Europe did not fall below replacement until the 1980s but has had exceptionally low fertility over the past 25 years. 2/4
The Americas have had healthy fertility until much more recently. The United States had replacement fertility as recently as 2007 and low birthrates are a recent problem in most of the hemisphere.
That is a big part of why the Americas have outperformed Europe economically. 3/4
A recent study found that giving men a pay raise led them to have more children, while giving women a pay raise led them to have fewer children. 🧵.
For women, the effect of a pay raise was significantly reduced future fertility. A pay increase at 25 was associated with a large decrease in fertility at age 30, regardless of the skill level.
For men, a pay increase was associated with persistently higher fertility. 2/4
Why? The authors argue that "the substitution effect between children and labor supply is dominating for women while the income effect is dominating for men."
Since childcare falls more on women, the competition between work and family is greater for women than for men. 3/4
A newly published paper found pronatal policies only worked when supported by culture.
"Maternity benefits increased fertility only among women who grew up in religious families" in the Baltics.
This could explain why many pronatal policies have not boosted fertility more. 🧵.
In 1982, there was a big expansion in child benefits in Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania including maternity leave wage benefits, a cash payment for birth and 18 months of job protection.
Five East European countries with comparable economic systems did not get the benefits. 2/5
The study found, "among women who grew up in religious households, fertility went up by a statistically significant 5.7 percentage points representing a 46.3% increase."
Meanwhile, there was "no change in fertility among women who did not grow up in religious households." 3/5
A new study finds that work-from-home raises fertility more than any conventional family policy.
"Estimated lifetime fertility is greater by 0.32 children per woman when both partners WFH one or more days per week as compared to the case where neither does." 🧵.
In this chart, a large effect is clearly seen, with fertility higher when either partner has some work-from-home and highest when both do.
The authors say this is not due to selection because fertility rose among those that unexpectedly got WFH, compared to those that didn't.
Raising the work-from-home share of either partner by seven percent raised the one-year fertility by a similar amount, which means that families that have WFH have considerably higher fertility on average.
On this Christmas, we can reflect how Christianity was able to grow out of the ashes of collapsing Rome.
Scott Alexander reviews Rodney Stark's The Rise of Christianity and describes how the new faith won out by valuing women and children.
Important 🧵!
Much like our world today, Pagan Rome faced terrible birthrates.
Sex-selective infanticide was the norm. Women were not valued and many men just wanted to stay single.
It got so bad that Roman General Macedonicus proposed forcing people to marry! 2/7
When schemes to make marriage mandatory failed, Augustus tried taxing the unmarried and childless.
Alexander writes, "Formal and informal social pressure eventually convinced most Roman men to take wives, but no amount of love or money could make them have children." 3/7