Several futurists have called the low birthrate crisis civilization's greatest threat. One cause is society has moved away from marriage. So, a big way to increase birth rates is by having more marriages and having them at younger ages.
A🧵. [Thanks for RTs and follows!]
First off, I don't want to sound pushy. Marriage is a great option for most (but not all) people. On average, married people are happier, healthier, live longer (both men and women), and become wealthier. (And only minority of marriages end in divorce, not most.) 2/9
Why is more and younger marriage so important for raising birth rates? (1) Many women aren't having the children they hoped to have, and age-related fertility decline (both men and women) is a big cause, and (2) People are much more likely to have children if they are married.3/9
So how to achieve more and younger marriages? Several points. First, "courtship"-type dating. What is courtship? It is where both people know from the start that they're exploring marriage. If there is a fit, things move quickly. And if there isn't, you move on quickly too! 4/9
The second point is to hit the milestones of life sooner. Anything that speeds things up can increase family formation including faster education, quicker career tracks, young people leaving the nest sooner, and better options for young homeownership. 5/9
The third point is to see marriage as the beginning of a successful life, not a capstone. A great time to marry might be after graduating from college or getting your first 'real' adult job, not after buying your dream home or finally making partner at a firm. 6/9
More reasons to marry at a younger age: (a) parenting is easier when you are young, (b) grandparents aren't yet too old to help with grandkids, and (c) it's easier to find someone and easier to merge your life with someone else's when you are younger. 7/9
Watch what successful people do, not what they say. And the most successful people usually choose marriage! 8/9
We absolutely don't want to minimize many amazing people who don't fit this model, for whatever reason.
But by shifting culture toward more and earlier marriage, we can solve the birthrate crisis and save our civilization. And make people happier, healthier and wealthier too! 9/9
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On this Father's Day, let's think of young guys and the future.
How can young men, most of whom really want children one day, boost their odds of achieving fatherhood?
🧵!
Perhaps the first thing for young men to focus on is gaining income and building a career.
There is a strong positive relationship between a man's income and the number of children he will have.
This was true in the past and it is still true today, all over the world. 2/9
Part of this of course is that higher earning men are more attractive to women.
But even for among married men, studies find that when men earn more, they tend to have more children.
This isn't just some relic of the past. It is even more true for younger men! 3/9
UPenn economist @JesusFerna7026 just gave an important talk called The Demographic Future of Humanity.
Key points: (1) Birth data is much worse than the UN reports, (2) UN projections are absurdly rosy, (3) Economic growth will be low, and (4) Immigration cannot fix this.
🧵
First, Fernández-Villaverde notes that in country after country, the UN's birth figures are far higher than what those countries officially report.
For example, the Colombian government reports births 25% lower than what the UN claims. In Egypt and Türkiye, the gap is ~12%. 2/8
On top bad birth data, the UN's population projections are absurdly optimistic. In most countries birthrates have been dropping like a rock. Yet the UN projects birthrates will bounce right back up.
There is no evidence for this. The causes of low birthrates haven't reversed. 3/8
Resisting Birthrate Decline Through Culture: How one part of Japan bucks the trend
Japan's woes are well known, its population long in decline, it's economy stagnating.
Yet one prefecture continues to grow, not through policy but through a pronatal culture.
🧵, please share!
For more than forty years, Okinawa has had far higher fertility than any other prefecture (Stone, 2024).
But Okinawa's fertility used to be lower than the 🇯🇵 average (map by @yz7sha).
How did Okinawa manage to develop a pronatal culture, so different from the rest of Japan? 2/9
The story starts after World War II.
Unlike the United States or most countries that participated in the war, Japan never had a postwar baby boom, and a 2016 paper explains why.
Facing defeat and a loss of resources, Japan embarked on a crash program of population control. 3/9
A wonderful paper by Spears et al. showed that population reduction would have almost no impact on climate change.
Why? The main reason is that a baby born today will emit much less carbon than someone born a generation ago, and their children will emit even less carbon. 🧵
Most previous forecasts of how population would impact climate assumed that carbon emissions would continue at the same rate indefinitely.
But per-capita carbon consumption has been falling sharply and will fall even faster in the future as renewable energy takes over. 2/4
Meanwhile, because of population momentum, total population takes decades to change meaningfully.
By the time depopulation kicks in, per capita carbon emissions will be much lower than they are today, and so the climate impacts of population by then will be much lower. 3/4
Knowing birthrates are driven by a stack of factors lets us figure out what is happening in each country and what its 👶 bottlenecks are.
Things like beliefs about children, marriage, housing conditions, religiosity, work culture and more all have a big impact.
🧵, please share!
In Spain (TFR 1.12), big hurdles include a huge fraction of young people living with their parents (driven by relatively poor employment for young people), the high share of housing that is small apartments, and declining faith among the young. 2/13
Poland (TFR 1.11) has a culture that is obsessive about work, with the longest work hours in Europe. After the fall of Communism, almost 70% of young Poles regularly practiced religion; today, less than 25% do. Housing is small and crowded. 3/13
Fertile No More!
For more than a hundred years, Ireland was both the most religious and the most fertile country in Europe.
But in recent years, Ireland experienced rapid secularization, and its fertility fell to just 1.47 in 2024.
What happened to 🇮🇪, and what comes next?
🧵!
First, a bit of history.
By the 1800s, Ireland had become almost entirely reliant on just one crop. Potato blight struck in 1845, and soon famine and mass migration cut the Irish population from 8 million down to 4. Ireland's population is still well below its 1845 peak. 2/7
Ireland gained independence in 1921, and Catholicism was central to Irish identity, partly in defiance of protestant England.
For most of the 20th century, 🇮🇪 was deeply religious, with church attendance above 90%.
The Irish idealized large families, and fertility was high! 3/7