Several futurists have called the low birthrate crisis civilization's greatest threat. One cause is society has moved away from marriage. So, a big way to increase birth rates is by having more marriages and having them at younger ages.
A🧵. [Thanks for RTs and follows!]
First off, I don't want to sound pushy. Marriage is a great option for most (but not all) people. On average, married people are happier, healthier, live longer (both men and women), and become wealthier. (And only minority of marriages end in divorce, not most.) 2/9
Why is more and younger marriage so important for raising birth rates? (1) Many women aren't having the children they hoped to have, and age-related fertility decline (both men and women) is a big cause, and (2) People are much more likely to have children if they are married.3/9
So how to achieve more and younger marriages? Several points. First, "courtship"-type dating. What is courtship? It is where both people know from the start that they're exploring marriage. If there is a fit, things move quickly. And if there isn't, you move on quickly too! 4/9
The second point is to hit the milestones of life sooner. Anything that speeds things up can increase family formation including faster education, quicker career tracks, young people leaving the nest sooner, and better options for young homeownership. 5/9
The third point is to see marriage as the beginning of a successful life, not a capstone. A great time to marry might be after graduating from college or getting your first 'real' adult job, not after buying your dream home or finally making partner at a firm. 6/9
More reasons to marry at a younger age: (a) parenting is easier when you are young, (b) grandparents aren't yet too old to help with grandkids, and (c) it's easier to find someone and easier to merge your life with someone else's when you are younger. 7/9
Watch what successful people do, not what they say. And the most successful people usually choose marriage! 8/9
We absolutely don't want to minimize many amazing people who don't fit this model, for whatever reason.
But by shifting culture toward more and earlier marriage, we can solve the birthrate crisis and save our civilization. And make people happier, healthier and wealthier too! 9/9
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A just-published paper introduces a new metric: the ratio of births observed (Bo) to births needed (Bn) to make up for deaths.
When Bo/Bn is below 1, a population faces natural decline.
With this lens, the dire situation of Europe and East Asia is thrown into stark relief. 🧵.
Most often we rely on TFR, births per woman of childbearing age. But that ignores the age structure of a population.
Japan is an old country with few women of childbearing age, and deaths far outnumber births.
India is a young country, and births still greatly exceed deaths. 2/
East Asia has less than half of the births needed to make up for deaths each year, indicating rapid demographic collapse. Conditions have gotten much worse since 2000, as these countries went from young to old.
Southern and Eastern Europe aren't much better in this regard. 3/6
Turkey's astonishing fertility collapse
Turkey's president Erdoğan made it his mission to revive birthrates. Instead, Turkish fertility has fallen faster than almost anywhere on Earth to just 1.42 in 2025 (just 1.2 outside of Kurdistan).
What happened, and what can we learn? 🧵.
By every measure, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has been a failure in the thing that mattered most to him, getting Turks to have more children.
Why? It doesn't help that Erdoğan is deeply unpopular with young people. 2/8
(Chart by @JesusFerna7026)
As demographer @lymanstoneky explains in a wonderful new article, the biggest direct cause of falling fertility is falling marriage.
When marriage falls, fertility plummets in a traditional country like Turkey where almost all childbearing is within wedlock. 3/8
India's new birth report just revealed a TFR of 1.88, a little below replacement.
But unlike most countries, 🇮🇳 does not have a crisis of low births. With its young population, India had 23 million births, 3x more than any other country.
In Europe, Finland, Sweden, the Netherlands, Germany, Switzerland, Spain, Portugal and Greece are all showing an absolute increase in births in 2026.
That is impressive considering that the average age in the EU is 45 and there are fewer women of childbearing age every year. 2/4
In East Asia on the other hand, the ongoing fertility collapse is accelerating.
Births are down 18% in Taiwan and 21% in Hong Kong, with massive drops in Thailand and Macao as well. This bodes poorly for China, which will likely have a fertility well below 1.0 this year. 3/4