More Births Profile picture
Jul 15, 2023 9 tweets 4 min read Read on X
Several futurists have called the low birthrate crisis civilization's greatest threat. One cause is society has moved away from marriage. So, a big way to increase birth rates is by having more marriages and having them at younger ages.
A🧵. [Thanks for RTs and follows!] Image
First off, I don't want to sound pushy. Marriage is a great option for most (but not all) people. On average, married people are happier, healthier, live longer (both men and women), and become wealthier. (And only minority of marriages end in divorce, not most.) 2/9


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Why is more and younger marriage so important for raising birth rates? (1) Many women aren't having the children they hoped to have, and age-related fertility decline (both men and women) is a big cause, and (2) People are much more likely to have children if they are married.3/9

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So how to achieve more and younger marriages? Several points. First, "courtship"-type dating. What is courtship? It is where both people know from the start that they're exploring marriage. If there is a fit, things move quickly. And if there isn't, you move on quickly too! 4/9
The second point is to hit the milestones of life sooner. Anything that speeds things up can increase family formation including faster education, quicker career tracks, young people leaving the nest sooner, and better options for young homeownership. 5/9 Image
The third point is to see marriage as the beginning of a successful life, not a capstone. A great time to marry might be after graduating from college or getting your first 'real' adult job, not after buying your dream home or finally making partner at a firm. 6/9
More reasons to marry at a younger age: (a) parenting is easier when you are young, (b) grandparents aren't yet too old to help with grandkids, and (c) it's easier to find someone and easier to merge your life with someone else's when you are younger. 7/9
Watch what successful people do, not what they say. And the most successful people usually choose marriage! 8/9
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We absolutely don't want to minimize many amazing people who don't fit this model, for whatever reason.
But by shifting culture toward more and earlier marriage, we can solve the birthrate crisis and save our civilization. And make people happier, healthier and wealthier too! 9/9

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More from @MoreBirths

Apr 24
A paper published today argues that women's liberation led to collapsing fertility around the world.

Using US data, the authors show 58% of women's sexual relationships are with the most promiscuous 10% of men.

But most of these relationships are short term and childless. 🧵. Image
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Women's freedom, widely viewed as positive around the world, is strongly associated with lower fertility, the authors find (r=.81).

Many forces have led women to pursue short-term rather than long-term mating strategies. But most of these partnerships don't lead to kids. 2/5 Image
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In US data over the past decade, a tenth of men accounted for 60% of female sexual partnerships.

The obvious problem is that most women will not be able to have a long-term relationship with these few men and so end up single. 3/5 Image
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Read 6 tweets
Apr 18
HOW ONE MAN REVIVED A NATION
The population pyramid of Kazakhstan is unlike any other in the world. Birthrate decline was stopped and reversed, even as the country grew rich.

Nursultan Nazarbayev led 🇰🇿 for 27 years from its founding in 1991 and got it to grow again! 🧵! Image
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Kazakhstan's population pyramid inverted in the mid 1980s as the number of births declined sharply and fertility fell below replacement in the 1990s.

But then births sharply recovered and Kazakhstan experienced a baby boom lasting almost 30 years even as it's GDP grew 15x! 2/7 Image
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The father of his country, Nazarbayev was incredibly popular, with an approval rate of around 90% through most of his long presidency.

On December 12, 1995, Nazarbayev introduced the Altyn Alka and Kumis Alka awards for mothers of many children. A pronatal culture was forged. 3/ Image
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Read 7 tweets
Apr 3
A study in Sweden found that firstborn children tend to have more children of their own than those that came later in the birth order.

Why? It is likely because older siblings had exposure to babies growing up, while younger siblings did not. 🧵. Image
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The large study of siblings (N = 1.5 million) found firstborns tend to have significantly more children than those that came later.

The effect is especially strong for women. When girls have a chance to help with little ones, they have much stronger family desires later on.
2/4 Image
What about number of siblings? For both women and men, having more siblings tends to increase the number of children people have.

And once again, the effect is strongest for elder siblings, who got more chances to practice parenting. 3/4 Image
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Read 4 tweets
Mar 4
A new map shows the last time each country in Europe reached replacement fertility.

Most western European countries, including the UK, France, Germany and Italy haven't had replacement fertility in more than 50 years.

This is the main reason for Europe's stagnation. 🧵. Image
This map shows the sobering fact that once a country falls below replacement, it almost never bounces back.

Eastern Europe did not fall below replacement until the 1980s but has had exceptionally low fertility over the past 25 years. 2/4 Image
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The Americas have had healthy fertility until much more recently. The United States had replacement fertility as recently as 2007 and low birthrates are a recent problem in most of the hemisphere.

That is a big part of why the Americas have outperformed Europe economically. 3/4 Image
Read 4 tweets
Feb 27
A big fail in the New York Times today with the claim that "31 is the new 21."

The Times leads readers to believe today's young women will make up lost fertility in their 30s and 40s.

But all evidence indicates they will not. 🧵. Image
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First, the Times is ignorant of what recent research shows about age and infertility.

A big 2023 study of three million women by Geruso, Spears and LoPalo found that the ability to get pregnant is much lower in the 30s than the 20s.

So unfortunately, 31 is not the new 21. 2/4 Image
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Second, the fertility collapse tracks plunging rates of partnering in the US and elsewhere in the world.

There is no reason to expect birthrates to miraculously recover when people are single at higher rates than ever before.
(Chart by @jburnmurdoch.) Image
Read 4 tweets
Feb 24
A recent study found that giving men a pay raise led them to have more children, while giving women a pay raise led them to have fewer children. 🧵. Image
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For women, the effect of a pay raise was significantly reduced future fertility. A pay increase at 25 was associated with a large decrease in fertility at age 30, regardless of the skill level.

For men, a pay increase was associated with persistently higher fertility. 2/4 Image
Why? The authors argue that "the substitution effect between children and labor supply is dominating for women while the income effect is dominating for men."

Since childcare falls more on women, the competition between work and family is greater for women than for men. 3/4 Image
Read 4 tweets

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