More Births Profile picture
Jul 15, 2023 9 tweets 4 min read Read on X
Several futurists have called the low birthrate crisis civilization's greatest threat. One cause is society has moved away from marriage. So, a big way to increase birth rates is by having more marriages and having them at younger ages.
A🧵. [Thanks for RTs and follows!] Image
First off, I don't want to sound pushy. Marriage is a great option for most (but not all) people. On average, married people are happier, healthier, live longer (both men and women), and become wealthier. (And only minority of marriages end in divorce, not most.) 2/9


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Why is more and younger marriage so important for raising birth rates? (1) Many women aren't having the children they hoped to have, and age-related fertility decline (both men and women) is a big cause, and (2) People are much more likely to have children if they are married.3/9

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So how to achieve more and younger marriages? Several points. First, "courtship"-type dating. What is courtship? It is where both people know from the start that they're exploring marriage. If there is a fit, things move quickly. And if there isn't, you move on quickly too! 4/9
The second point is to hit the milestones of life sooner. Anything that speeds things up can increase family formation including faster education, quicker career tracks, young people leaving the nest sooner, and better options for young homeownership. 5/9 Image
The third point is to see marriage as the beginning of a successful life, not a capstone. A great time to marry might be after graduating from college or getting your first 'real' adult job, not after buying your dream home or finally making partner at a firm. 6/9
More reasons to marry at a younger age: (a) parenting is easier when you are young, (b) grandparents aren't yet too old to help with grandkids, and (c) it's easier to find someone and easier to merge your life with someone else's when you are younger. 7/9
Watch what successful people do, not what they say. And the most successful people usually choose marriage! 8/9
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We absolutely don't want to minimize many amazing people who don't fit this model, for whatever reason.
But by shifting culture toward more and earlier marriage, we can solve the birthrate crisis and save our civilization. And make people happier, healthier and wealthier too! 9/9

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More from @MoreBirths

Jun 23
What is the impact of grandparents on fertility?

Three different recent studies found that having childcare help from grandparents leads people to have more children. 🧵. Image
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A 2023 study of China looked at how grandparents impacted the odds of going for a 2nd child.

Those who had childcare help from grandparents for their first child had a dramatically higher chance of going for a second. 2/4 Image
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A 2022 study in Spain looked at how fertility intentions change depending on whether grandparents help with childcare.

Women specifically were much more likely to want more children if the grandparents were helping out. 3/4 Image
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Read 5 tweets
Jun 21
Today we celebrate all fathers!

But most of all, we should recognize younger fathers, who are trying harder and doing more to be there for their families than any generation that came before them.

🧵, please share! Image
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All over the world, dads are spending far more time on childcare than ever before. Dads in the US today spend 4.5 times as much of their day on childcare as their own fathers did a generation ago. 2/6

(Chart by the brilliant @AzizSunderji.) Image
It's easy to say that dads aren't doing their fair share.

But it isn't true! When it comes to everything, paid work, housework and childcare, Dads today spend even more time on average than moms, nearly 60 hours a week! 3/6

(HT @RichardvReeves and Institute for Boys and Men.) Image
Read 6 tweets
May 31
A just-published paper introduces a new metric: the ratio of births observed (Bo) to births needed (Bn) to make up for deaths.

When Bo/Bn is below 1, a population faces natural decline.

With this lens, the dire situation of Europe and East Asia is thrown into stark relief. 🧵. Image
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Most often we rely on TFR, births per woman of childbearing age. But that ignores the age structure of a population.

Japan is an old country with few women of childbearing age, and deaths far outnumber births.

India is a young country, and births still greatly exceed deaths. 2/ Image
East Asia has less than half of the births needed to make up for deaths each year, indicating rapid demographic collapse. Conditions have gotten much worse since 2000, as these countries went from young to old.

Southern and Eastern Europe aren't much better in this regard. 3/6 Image
Read 6 tweets
May 27
Turkey's astonishing fertility collapse
Turkey's president Erdoğan made it his mission to revive birthrates. Instead, Turkish fertility has fallen faster than almost anywhere on Earth to just 1.42 in 2025 (just 1.2 outside of Kurdistan).
What happened, and what can we learn? 🧵.Image
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By every measure, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has been a failure in the thing that mattered most to him, getting Turks to have more children.

Why? It doesn't help that Erdoğan is deeply unpopular with young people. 2/8
(Chart by @JesusFerna7026) Image
As demographer @lymanstoneky explains in a wonderful new article, the biggest direct cause of falling fertility is falling marriage.

When marriage falls, fertility plummets in a traditional country like Turkey where almost all childbearing is within wedlock. 3/8 Image
Read 8 tweets
May 22
India's new birth report just revealed a TFR of 1.88, a little below replacement.

But unlike most countries, 🇮🇳 does not have a crisis of low births. With its young population, India had 23 million births, 3x more than any other country.

A look at how India is different. 🧵! Image
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South Asia is the one region where marriage remains almost universal even as it has collapsed nearly everywhere else. Why? Arranged marriage.

In China, Korea and Japan, arranged marriage was common but became rare.

In India by contrast, arranged marriage remains the norm. 2/7 Image
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India's age profile for births tells a remarkable story. Indian births peak in the early 20s, and most women stop well before age 30.

India is a populous and crowded county, and so most Indian women simply choose to limit their fertility for that reason. 3/7 Image
Read 7 tweets
May 15
A shocking new study finds that the desire for children has collapsed among young people in China.

In the most recent data some 32% of 18–24-year-olds, and nearly half of young women, said they don't want any children at all. 🧵. Image
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Fertility desires have long been taken for granted. Even as fertility has dropped, the desire for children seemed strong.

If birthrates were too low, many argued it was only because of structural barriers to having children, like housing and childcare. 2/7 Image
But this study, which looked at five waves of the Chinese Social Survey, found that increasingly, young Chinese don't even want children.

Until the 2010s, fertility desire was nearly universal. But now a third of young people in China report "zero fertility desire"! 3/7 Image
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Read 8 tweets

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