More Births Profile picture
Jul 15, 2023 9 tweets 4 min read Read on X
Several futurists have called the low birthrate crisis civilization's greatest threat. One cause is society has moved away from marriage. So, a big way to increase birth rates is by having more marriages and having them at younger ages.
A🧵. [Thanks for RTs and follows!] Image
First off, I don't want to sound pushy. Marriage is a great option for most (but not all) people. On average, married people are happier, healthier, live longer (both men and women), and become wealthier. (And only minority of marriages end in divorce, not most.) 2/9


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Why is more and younger marriage so important for raising birth rates? (1) Many women aren't having the children they hoped to have, and age-related fertility decline (both men and women) is a big cause, and (2) People are much more likely to have children if they are married.3/9

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So how to achieve more and younger marriages? Several points. First, "courtship"-type dating. What is courtship? It is where both people know from the start that they're exploring marriage. If there is a fit, things move quickly. And if there isn't, you move on quickly too! 4/9
The second point is to hit the milestones of life sooner. Anything that speeds things up can increase family formation including faster education, quicker career tracks, young people leaving the nest sooner, and better options for young homeownership. 5/9 Image
The third point is to see marriage as the beginning of a successful life, not a capstone. A great time to marry might be after graduating from college or getting your first 'real' adult job, not after buying your dream home or finally making partner at a firm. 6/9
More reasons to marry at a younger age: (a) parenting is easier when you are young, (b) grandparents aren't yet too old to help with grandkids, and (c) it's easier to find someone and easier to merge your life with someone else's when you are younger. 7/9
Watch what successful people do, not what they say. And the most successful people usually choose marriage! 8/9
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We absolutely don't want to minimize many amazing people who don't fit this model, for whatever reason.
But by shifting culture toward more and earlier marriage, we can solve the birthrate crisis and save our civilization. And make people happier, healthier and wealthier too! 9/9

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More from @MoreBirths

Jul 16
TESTOSTERONE SUPPLEMENTATION DRASTICALLY LOWERS SPERM COUNTS
Men who want more children should not do it.

Numerous studies find that exogenous testosterone sharply reduces testosterone production within the testes, effectively shutting down sperm production. 🧵.Image
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A World Health Organization study found that among 271 healthy and fertile men, a large majority became azoospermic (a condition where a man's semen has no measurable sperm) with testosterone injection.

There was just one pregnancy in 1486 cumulative months of study. 2/6 Image
A literature review published 2013 explained the mechanism:

"Exogenous administration of testosterone results in negative feedback leading to inhibition of FSH and LH production. As a result, intratesticular testosterone levels (ITT) decrease." 3/6 Image
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Read 6 tweets
Jul 12
A large part of the low birthrate crisis is that people aren't finding partners. But with dating apps, people have more options than ever. What gives?

A 2020 study found both men and women become pickier and more prone to reject possible partners the more options they see. 🧵 Image
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After seeing just 40 profiles, users were much more likely to reject the matches they were presented with.

Meanwhile the average Tinder user goes swipes through 4000 profiles a month. Image
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With an abundance of choice, most people are less satisfied in the end and are less likely to stick with the choices they have made.

The effect is most pronounced for women.

So paradoxically, more choice via apps has resulted more singles across society. Image
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Read 4 tweets
Jul 11
The leftwing, blank-slatist economist Daron Acemoglu sees how rich countries have low birthrates and argues that low birthrates cause growth and innovation. 🙃.

The opposite is true. The evidence shows larger populations have more innovation and higher economic growth. 🧵. Image
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The most seminal work was Michael Kremer's 1993 paper "Population Growth and Technological Change: One Million B.C. to 1990". 2/7

Kremer showed that societies with larger initial populations progressed faster and saw faster technological change and growth. Image
In the Malthusian world (which covers most of human history) larger populations grew faster than smaller populations.

Why? With more innovators and more cooperation, they were able to climb the technological ladder faster and support more people. 3/7 Image
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Read 7 tweets
Jul 4
In his remarkable 1755 publication Observations Concerning the Increase of Mankind, Ben Franklin put on his demographer hat and foretold the rise of America to superpower status some 21 years before the signing of the Declaration of Independence. 🇺🇸 🇺🇸

🧵, please share!Image
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Franklin worked out demography from first principles.

He began with the observation that marriage drives population growth, and marriage in turn is driven by the ability of young men to support a family. He saw that when people marry early, they are able to have more kids. 2/9 Image
All the way back in 1755, Franklin knew of the problem of low urban birthrates.

He lamented how people in cities delayed marriage and embraced single living and how cities were a population sink, with more deaths than births. 3/9 Image
Read 9 tweets
Jul 3
HOW VANCOUVER ENDED UP WITH THE LOWEST FERTILITY IN THE WESTERN WORLD
Vancouver, Canada had a TFR of just around 0.7 in 2025. That's the lowest fertility of any major city in the West, and one of the lowest anywhere on Earth.

What forces lead to such low birthrates? 🧵. Image
The story starts with culture. Canada quite a bit less religious than the United States these days, and that is a big reason why Canada's TFR at 1.25 is much lower than the US (~1.6).

But within Canada, BC in general and Vancouver in particular are especially irreligious. 2/7 Image
The story continues with housing. Although Canada is big, the share of land that Canadians are allowed to build on is tiny, and that is especially true in British Columbia.

Some 95% of British Columbia is government-owned, leaving just 5% in private hands. 3/7 Image
Read 7 tweets
Jun 23
What is the impact of grandparents on fertility?

Three different recent studies found that having childcare help from grandparents leads people to have more children. 🧵. Image
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A 2023 study of China looked at how grandparents impacted the odds of going for a 2nd child.

Those who had childcare help from grandparents for their first child had a dramatically higher chance of going for a second. 2/4 Image
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A 2022 study in Spain looked at how fertility intentions change depending on whether grandparents help with childcare.

Women specifically were much more likely to want more children if the grandparents were helping out. 3/4 Image
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Read 5 tweets

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