Ideas for reversing the collapse in global fertility, the greatest challenge of our age. Humanity is precious.
HT to Lyman Stone and other great demographers.
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The rate of marriage has dropped precipitously over the past 50 years.
Berghammer et al. (2020) studied eight European countries and found that religious people have more kids, and their views on family intention are formed very young, even in childhood. In these countries, the fertility advantage was 1/2 a child per woman. (N=34,000) 2/12 
The importance of housing affordability for families is particularly visible in map form. The parts of the United States where houses are more affordable tend to have higher birth rates. 2/4 
To estimate where fertility is headed in China, take into account two numbers, fertility intentions and fertility realizability.
In the last decade, South American countries (and Latins in the US) have gotten very good at avoiding unintended 'pregnancies of passion' – among young women in particular. 2/6 
As countries get richer and as schooling and marriage ages rise, fertility realizability consistently falls.
As @robinhanson recently explained in a widely read essay, there is a global 'monoculture' that has brought fertility rates down all over the world.
For all the talk of marriage becoming obsolete, a funny thing started happening since 2008: Birthrates outside of marriage fell by 28%, while birthrates within marriage held steady.
The assumption is that the current property crisis will take several years to "resolve."
First up, Lutz et al. (2006).
Of all the explanations for the fall of the Roman Empire, low fertility seems to be the most compelling reason. We know Rome's population plummeted. But this wasn't a sudden thing due to sacking but was continuous over a number of centuries as this chart by
Innovation is the engine of economic growth. The Industrial Revolution that kicked off the modern world tracks a rise in patent grants in Great Britain at the time.
Of course, people don't have to have children within marriage, and it is quite normalized for Europeans to have kids outside of marriage.
A first cause of low birthrates in 🇪🇸 and 🇮🇹 is high unemployment and unstable work, especially for the young. Youth unemployment exceeds 20%.
The paper Divorce Laws and Fertility by Bellido et al. found that "The introduction of more liberal divorce laws permanently reduces the value of marriage relative to divorce. Results suggest that divorce liberalization has a negative and permanent effect on fertility." 2/6
Thanks to Scott Alexander (@slatestarcodex), through whose blog I found Aella's data. It turns out that polyamorous people have only half as many children as those who are monogamous, on average.
Although it would be difficult to prove, it seems likely that the KPOP industry's bizarre demand that its stars remain single is reinforcing a sexless and childless culture. This may be hurting global fertility rates given KPOP's massive global reach. 2/5
To begin with, let's dispense with a misconception. Although all of Europe struggles with low birth rates and aging populations, Europe is not facing 'lowest-of-low' fertility rates that are now seen in parts of Asia. (Map by @landgeist, table by @BirthGauge.) 2/14 
Are people worried about the collapse of birth rates? Not yet. They surely will be, but even though the collapse is advanced in many countries, we are still in very early stages in terms of recognition. (2/7) 
I have explained how lower density housing is correlated with higher fertility and how American cities suffer less from low borthrates than cities in other parts of the world for this reason.
The ability of a woman to carry is remarkably steady well into the 40s, but it is the age of her eggs that is the greatest hindrance to pregnancy. (2/4)