Thread by @Mylovanov

How will the war end in Ukraine and what are the conditions for sustainable peace between Russia and Ukraine?

That’s a tough question I have been just asked at a conference in Greece.

The war will end and peace will be sustained with the removal of Putin from the office. 1/

The second question is easier to answer than the first.

What will make peace sustainable?

Sustainability of peace or any other agreement requires both parties to have a reputation to stick to the agreement. 2/

Without such reputations, parties will be suspicious of each other. Consequently, whenever something goes wrong, an accident, a rogue actor, an explosion, or even a mysterious death, a poisoning, or a movement of troops, it will be interpreted as a sign of violating peace. 3/

Any uncertainty, any event will be perceived in the negative light and the opponent will assume that the other one is preparing to attack again. And it will trigger an escalation.

So, any agreement when parties don’t have a reputation for honoring their promises is unstable. 4/

Putin doesn’t have a reputation for honoring agreements. Instead, the opposite is true. Putin has cultivated a reputation that he can’t be trusted, and that he can impose terror unless he gets what he wants.

And now he has become a hostage of his own reputation. 5/

He wants to get Ukraine, he wants it to surrender. But he cannot get it. And his reputation, the entire history of his actions, teaches us only one thing: Putin will continue to be ruthless in order to get what he wants.

This approach works well for Putin when he is stronger. 6/

It basically creates a motivation for others to give up quickly and saves him the costs of achieving his objectives.

And this approach has worked well to subdue Russian oligarchs, Russian opposition, Belarus sovereignty, and also to contain the Western response. 7/

But this approach is disaster out when you meet a committed opponent who is unwilling to surrender no matter what. And that’s exactly the case in Ukraine.

So one of the opponents will go down - either Putin or Ukraine.

It is not Russia vs Ukraine or Putin vs Zelensky. 8/

It is Putin vs Ukraine. Putin is supported by the majority of Russians and so indeed it is a war of Russians against Ukrainians. But the Russian society doesn’t have much agency. And once Putin is gone, they will disoriented while fighting for the next leader. 9/

But back to the questions of the war and sustainability of peace.

So sustainable peace, in my view, is only possible if Putin is gone. So that what the objective should be. And there are promising signs of cracks within Russia - e.g., Prigozhin’s mutiny. 10/

What about the end of the war?

The answer to the question about sustainable peace provides the answer to this question too.

There could and will be temporary decreases in the intensity of combat.

In fact, the war started in 2014, and the attacks from Russia never stopped.11

So, the real question is whether we should be striving for a temporary peace, with Putin still
In the office, and under what conditions?

Zelensky made these conditions clear - Russia must leave Ukraine.

Frankly, I think he is absolutely right. 12/

Until Russia leaves Ukraine no peace is possible, sustainable or not.

How do we achieve that? By applying pressure on Russia, providing military and economic support to Ukraine, and imposing and enforcing sanctions on Russia. 13/

Today Ukraine is fighting with one hand tied behind its back - no Air Force, limited artillery capabilities, no cruise missiles (almost), a constraint in not attacking warehouse and stockpiles of weapons, air ports, logistical hubs, and military production facilities i. Russia 14

Imagine how things would have changed if Ukraine were given sufficient weapons and were allowed to fight without restraints!

Russia would have been pushed back out of Ukraine.

So let’s have it happen. Let’s stop being afraid of escalation and back the right course. 15X