Meltem Demirors Profile picture
Jul 18, 2023 15 tweets 7 min read Read on X
1/ a short summary of a recent talk on silicon, satoshis, and superpowers

power in our world is changing. a decade ago, oil and gas companies and banks ruled markets. now it's tech companies and financialization runs rampant (>100x P/E ratios etc) Image
2/ as our lives become increasingly digitized, value creation is happening on a new frontier, and a handful of industries and companies are well positioned to capitalize on this shift Image
3/ this is also impacting the geopolitical landscape. we live in a multipolar world, and power has historically been dependent on the ability of a nation to secure access to natural resources, namely oil Image
4/ but there's a new power structure emerging.

numerous corporations book annual revenues > than the GDP of G20 economies. people are spending insane amounts of time and energy in virtual worlds. and public blockchain protocols are growing in power and influence. Image
5/ so as an investor, i ask myself - how should i position my portfolio?

energy, compute, and digital currency will make this digital, multi-polar future possible Image
6/ one idea i keep coming back to is this - producing and processing bits and bytes (in the digital world) still requires atoms (in the physical world)

we don't often talk about these in the same context, but both matter Image
7/ let's start with energy

more technology means generating and consuming more energy. our culture loves vilifying energy consumption, but it is an inescapable reality of human progress.

while renewables generation is growing, fossil fuels still dominate our energy mix Image
8/ but there are new models for energy generation and management, below are some that i'm excited about

- new energy sources are needed - i am a big proponent of nuclear, esp SMRs (small modular reactors) from co's like @oklo and @NuScale_Power
- the growth of peer to peer… https://t.co/ynLvIur4gDtwitter.com/i/web/status/1…
Image
@oklo @NuScale_Power 9/ next, compute and connectivity

access to on-demand high performance compute and connectivity is constrained by (a) supply - there simply isn't enough of it, and (b) physics - data isn’t massless (crazy innit) and doesn’t travel in a straight line Image
@oklo @NuScale_Power 10/ but there are exciting new models that could help ease some of these practical constraints

- new types of semiconductors are leveraging innovations in materials science, like graphene, to ease supply chain and production bottlenecks to lower costs and innovating in chip… https://t.co/Yx5HX53z7Otwitter.com/i/web/status/1…
Image
@oklo @NuScale_Power 11/ and so we come to my favorite topic, cryptocurrency. bitcoin is money backed by energy and compute.

an increasingly digital world will require a native currency for transacting between not only billions of humans but the trillions of AI agents and connected devices Image
@oklo @NuScale_Power 12/ aside from fueling the digital economy, there's a much larger opportunity at stake for cryptocurrencies and public blockchain networking to provide the substrate for the trillions of dollars of infrastructure investment needed to usher in the future

whether you call it RWAs… https://t.co/mrUCvIteOStwitter.com/i/web/status/1…
Image
@oklo @NuScale_Power 13/ we are still in the early days of exploring how crypto primitives can change the unit economics of infrastructure investing

many of the early experiments have not succeeded when it comes to adoption and scale, but have demonstrated the potential of shifting from a corporate… https://t.co/nd8WEj2boEtwitter.com/i/web/status/1…
Image
@oklo @NuScale_Power 14/ Bitcoin (and PoW Ethereum) have catalyzed billions of dollars of investment in physical infrastructure in the form of ASICs co-located with renewable generational assets (and GPUs) and now support trillions of dollars in annual economic activity with this physical… https://t.co/YUO9aS3pGCtwitter.com/i/web/status/1…
Image
@oklo @NuScale_Power 15/ i'm excited to continue exploring this intersection, and looking forward to working with companies and projects in the crypto ecosystem to bend the arc of reality in our digital and physical world alike

it's time to build... power plants and data centers!

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More from @Melt_Dem

May 2
1/ thoughts on the 100th GPU supply aggregation incentivized w a token protocol

everyone is aggregating supply but there is no demand

the dePIN angle only covers supply

but cost isn't the driving BUY factor for demand side...
2/ priorities for people sourcing GPU compute:
- availability
- security
- scalability
- cost

not a single compute buyer will choose a distributed clusterfuck with mediocre performance over hyperscalars or neoclouds
3/ don't believe me? the team at @SemiAnalysis_ (@dylan522p research firm, most widely read and cited semis / DC research) did a tear down

every distributed compute player is "underperforming" - most not even worth mentioning

semianalysis.com/2025/03/26/the…
Read 6 tweets
Apr 29
1/ @CrucibleCap Q1 VC report, sharing for those curious about the process of investing. we use @attio.

sourcing - we get a LOT of inbound, mostly on this site and LinkedIn. we only track investable deals in our mandate and valuation range. this is why we write / post! Image
2/ the number of deals through our pipeline has stayed pretty consistent quarter over quarter - we generally will do 1-2 meetings and then decide quickly if we want to dig in or not Image
3/ deal momentum is important - a lack of momentum can kill deals. i look at how efficient we are.

notably diligence and execution time was cut down 50% - this is due to better internal alignment and process handoffs between @itsanhonour_ @kellyjgreer and i Image
Read 6 tweets
Mar 25
1/ are we so back? not so fast

joined @sonalibasak and @timsteno for some lunchtime tea 🍵 on the latest in crypto markets

video here:

receipts below bloomberg.com/news/videos/20…Image
2/ first off - flows

its been a rough Q1 for ETFs flows

the sell off was driven by short term holders selling at a loss. let's see what comes out in the Q1 13F filings - our mercenaries may have been top buyers after all. love that for us! Image
Image
2/ we're in a rough spot

stocks below 200 dmas, indeces selling off, Bessent and Trump both fixated on forcing rates lower even if it costs the market

this is a relief bounce driven by retail buyers (they're a contrarian indicator) and algorithmic CTAs
Read 8 tweets
Mar 20
1/ quick slide rip from my @Blockworks_ DAS talk - Believe in Something

this is where it all began. everything we talked about ten years ago when we started building the world's first bitcoin investment firm has come to pass.

so why isn't bitcoin a million dollars? Image
2/ if we take out bitcoin and ethereum, this is the last five years of crypto markets

the names may have changed but the numbers haven't

this is a big problem. there's no growth. Image
3/ 2024 was propped up by two persistent bids - Microstrategy and Blackrock

but the buyers aren't missionaries, they're mercenaries

MSTR buyers are farming the convert arb
IBIT buyers are farming basis

6% of the bitcoin supply is in these two.

this is our black swan. Image
Read 16 tweets
Feb 11
1/ just wrapped my quarterly report for @CrucibleVC

our playbook is simple

as a GP, every quarter i quantify and qualify our ability to run this playbook. we double down on what works, experiment / re-visit with what isn't working.

let's dig into the data and tools👇 Image
2/ we use @attio to manage our pipeline

step one is analyzing the funnel - both raw #s and relative %s

with a small team, quality > quantity. low conversion % signals top of funnel is too broad. high conversion may signal you're not seeing enough deal flow. Image
@attio 3/ "customer experience" in the context of venture is largely based on responsiveness, so tracking time spent processing deal flow is an important metric

i'm pretty happy with our pacing. good to spend more time in later stages ensuring everything is ticked and tied. Image
Read 8 tweets
Jan 22
1/ gave a talk last week on "energy, compute, crypto" - the three pillars of the modern economy and the converge of three trillion dollar investment themes

sharing the slides and full deck - let's rip 👇
2/ compute rules capital markets

Nvidia was the big story in 2024, but Broadcom cracked the top 10 too and TSMC cemented its place alongside the rest of the Mag 7

expect 2025 to continue this trend as energy and compute carry capital markets Image
3/ while everyone was loading up on semiconductor names, energy had its own quiet rally

Vistra, an independent power producer, outperformed Nvidia and Bitcoin

this year, we'll see more focus on the US grid which is by far the greater bottleneck than GPUs Image
Read 22 tweets

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