1/ a short summary of a recent talk on silicon, satoshis, and superpowers
power in our world is changing. a decade ago, oil and gas companies and banks ruled markets. now it's tech companies and financialization runs rampant (>100x P/E ratios etc)
2/ as our lives become increasingly digitized, value creation is happening on a new frontier, and a handful of industries and companies are well positioned to capitalize on this shift
3/ this is also impacting the geopolitical landscape. we live in a multipolar world, and power has historically been dependent on the ability of a nation to secure access to natural resources, namely oil
4/ but there's a new power structure emerging.
numerous corporations book annual revenues > than the GDP of G20 economies. people are spending insane amounts of time and energy in virtual worlds. and public blockchain protocols are growing in power and influence.
5/ so as an investor, i ask myself - how should i position my portfolio?
energy, compute, and digital currency will make this digital, multi-polar future possible
6/ one idea i keep coming back to is this - producing and processing bits and bytes (in the digital world) still requires atoms (in the physical world)
we don't often talk about these in the same context, but both matter
7/ let's start with energy
more technology means generating and consuming more energy. our culture loves vilifying energy consumption, but it is an inescapable reality of human progress.
while renewables generation is growing, fossil fuels still dominate our energy mix
8/ but there are new models for energy generation and management, below are some that i'm excited about
- new energy sources are needed - i am a big proponent of nuclear, esp SMRs (small modular reactors) from co's like @oklo and @NuScale_Power
- the growth of peer to peer… https://t.co/ynLvIur4gDtwitter.com/i/web/status/1…
@oklo @NuScale_Power 9/ next, compute and connectivity
access to on-demand high performance compute and connectivity is constrained by (a) supply - there simply isn't enough of it, and (b) physics - data isn’t massless (crazy innit) and doesn’t travel in a straight line
@oklo @NuScale_Power 10/ but there are exciting new models that could help ease some of these practical constraints
- new types of semiconductors are leveraging innovations in materials science, like graphene, to ease supply chain and production bottlenecks to lower costs and innovating in chip… https://t.co/Yx5HX53z7Otwitter.com/i/web/status/1…
@oklo @NuScale_Power 11/ and so we come to my favorite topic, cryptocurrency. bitcoin is money backed by energy and compute.
an increasingly digital world will require a native currency for transacting between not only billions of humans but the trillions of AI agents and connected devices
@oklo @NuScale_Power 12/ aside from fueling the digital economy, there's a much larger opportunity at stake for cryptocurrencies and public blockchain networking to provide the substrate for the trillions of dollars of infrastructure investment needed to usher in the future
@oklo @NuScale_Power 13/ we are still in the early days of exploring how crypto primitives can change the unit economics of infrastructure investing
many of the early experiments have not succeeded when it comes to adoption and scale, but have demonstrated the potential of shifting from a corporate… https://t.co/nd8WEj2boEtwitter.com/i/web/status/1…
@oklo @NuScale_Power 14/ Bitcoin (and PoW Ethereum) have catalyzed billions of dollars of investment in physical infrastructure in the form of ASICs co-located with renewable generational assets (and GPUs) and now support trillions of dollars in annual economic activity with this physical… https://t.co/YUO9aS3pGCtwitter.com/i/web/status/1…
@oklo @NuScale_Power 15/ i'm excited to continue exploring this intersection, and looking forward to working with companies and projects in the crypto ecosystem to bend the arc of reality in our digital and physical world alike
it's time to build... power plants and data centers!
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1/ just wrapped my quarterly report for @CrucibleVC
our playbook is simple
as a GP, every quarter i quantify and qualify our ability to run this playbook. we double down on what works, experiment / re-visit with what isn't working.
let's dig into the data and tools👇
2/ we use @attio to manage our pipeline
step one is analyzing the funnel - both raw #s and relative %s
with a small team, quality > quantity. low conversion % signals top of funnel is too broad. high conversion may signal you're not seeing enough deal flow.
@attio 3/ "customer experience" in the context of venture is largely based on responsiveness, so tracking time spent processing deal flow is an important metric
i'm pretty happy with our pacing. good to spend more time in later stages ensuring everything is ticked and tied.
1/ gave a talk last week on "energy, compute, crypto" - the three pillars of the modern economy and the converge of three trillion dollar investment themes
sharing the slides and full deck - let's rip 👇
2/ compute rules capital markets
Nvidia was the big story in 2024, but Broadcom cracked the top 10 too and TSMC cemented its place alongside the rest of the Mag 7
expect 2025 to continue this trend as energy and compute carry capital markets
3/ while everyone was loading up on semiconductor names, energy had its own quiet rally
Vistra, an independent power producer, outperformed Nvidia and Bitcoin
this year, we'll see more focus on the US grid which is by far the greater bottleneck than GPUs
1/ ok i think i have finally sort of gotten to the root of my issue with DePIN as a category
data gathering / observability is step one but it is in and of itself not a valuable exercise. generating tons of new data doesn't unlock billions of $ from buyers for this data.
2/ the bottleneck isn't data but rather actionable insight
the real value in data is *understanding whats going on* and then *doing something* with all of that data that generates economic value, either through unlocking revenue (top line) or lowering cost (bottom line)
3/ DePIN feels like people strapping sensors to things and then trying to sell data (of questionable value) and then saying later there's something else that they can do through that aggregation
some projects enabling optimization w data w various degrees of automation
1/ quick rip on why @Polymarket matters and why the future of information is markets
markets are efficient at pricing information. if you have information or insight that others don't, there's a huge opportunity to generate alpha. alpha generation requires information edge.
2/ the last few months show distrust of main stream media (MSM) and formal, credentialed sources of information is at an all time high.
so where is information coming from?
- citizen reporters on X
- indie media / podcasts
and markets will price the signals generated
3/ not all markets are equal - liquidity is key. more liquid equals more better.
see the divergence in odds btw Polymarket and Kalshi. Polymarket had 10x the liquidity -> higher signal.
market microstructure also drives differences but the effect is more subtle imho
1/ melts and kaledora, sitting in a tree
talking about commodities
thanks to @EV3Research @MoneroMahesh @DAnconia_Crypto for hosting me and @kaledora @OstiumLabs for bringing the rizz
slides and commentary 👇 below the jump
2/ history of oil and what it can teach us about DePIN
standard oil - rockefeller started by horizontally integrating and rolling up refineries, and then realized operating leverage would come from controlling the upstream inputs and the downstream transport and retailing
3/ we are starting to see DePIN ecosystems repeating this playbook. @helium has gone from deWi to building generalized DePIN infrastructure. @hotspotty started with deWi optimization software and is now building a broader DePIN aggregation platform.
1/ quick notes and data points from the discussion @kellyjgreer and i had at @PubKey_NYC last night
'tis the season of the most hated rally - bitcoin is ripping and macro folks are not happy about it
jamie dimon and elizabeth warren seem especially mad 😠 max cope incoming
2/ bitcoin pricing is driven by FLOWS
it's tempting to get lost in piles of analysis but as we'll discuss later on, the key to understanding is looking at open positions, trade volume, inflows and outflows
sentiment doesn't matter until it's expressed as a trade
3/ bitcoin is highly reflexive
i had a moment of enlightenment a few years back. i used to believe narrative -> sentiment -> flows -> price but it's really much simpler
price drives action
this is what @saylor $MSTR has perfected. buy, price goes up, follow with narrative