Whenever I discuss history its shocking how much ignorance I encounter from even trained historians about the level of poverty in the past
Contrary to idiots and revisionists No. People in the past were horrifyingly impoverished
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Medieval buffs and scholars are the absolute worst for this.
Figures in the Renaissance and Enlightenment made bullshit up about how "Backwards" the Medievals were compared to themselves, or the ancients... and now every medieval scholar has a chip on their shoulder.
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It's true the Medieval period isn't some great outlier from the ancient world, renaissance, or early modern.
But that's because all of these eras were horrifyingly, unthinkably, impoverished by the standard of anyone living today.
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This is the most important graph in history.
World GDP per Capita from the ancient world to today
In WW2 UK gdp per capita was $10k per person (modern Dominican Republic), in 1870 it was 5k (El Salvador), and before 1800 it was below $2k (Haiti) before 1600 $500 (Somalia)
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The most horrifically crushing poverty you can imagine was the norm, Everywhere, for almost all of human history.
I've focused on the UK because it was the first to industrialize, so unless you're American (which got wealthy "Slightly" faster) assume your country was worse
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This leads me to the point I get vastly more pushback on.
How common prostitution was and how horrifically near ruin was for women.
If women screwed up their prospects, lost a husband or father, or were socially "Fallen" They were obscenely likely to become prostitutes.
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For some reason, there are vast collections of history buffs and even historians who will try to contest when all the scholarship and primary sources scream this fact.
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Early modern writers from Shakespeare to Ford, , to Defoe, to Fielding, to Richardson to Austin are all clear about this.
They account the harrowing peril women would find themselves in and the life-or-death struggle to protect their reputations and marriage prospects
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Because once a woman became pregnant out of wedlock or was known to have lost her chastity... to have "Fallen", that was most likely impossible for her to ever have financial security again unless she had a very generous family benefactor.
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the Lancet Medical Journal of 1887, estimated there were 80,000 prostitutes in London. 3% of the total population of 2,360,000. or 6% of all women.
11/ 700 years earlier there were 1000 prostitutes employed BY THE CATHOLIC CHURCH in London in the 1100s
The Church ran these "for the girl's protection". We have their records
The population of London was 20-40k in 1100
this was 10% of London women just in church-run brothels
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Rampant prostitution as a matter of survival is just a fact of life in horribly impoverished times and places like modern Haiti, or the entirety of human history before 1900, and every source we have on the matter agrees
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Throughout the 19th century sentimentalists and moral reformers like Charles Dickens, Leo Tolstoy, and Thomas Hardy tried to reframe the prevailing moral narratives around "Fallen Women" through their writing and Dickens and others set up the first women's shelters.
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But in spite of the incredible work of historians, the overwhelming economic consensus about how horrific the past was, the archeological evidence of terrifyingly low lifespans from ancient Rome to the Victorians, and cut-and-dry records...
People deny this.
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This is all the more disturbing because, in many parts of the modern West, we're reliving it.
Between the collapse of family support networks and exploding cost of living, we've seen one of the fastest movements into OnlyFans and other "Sex Worker" roles in human history.
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In the artificial "poverty" Western regulatory states create around housing, transportation, marriage, and productive work... It isn't surprising the solution so many socially displaced, often teenage, girls reach for is the same one 100s of generations before they have.
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There are still conservatives, and some NYT progressives who fear/dream that China's authoritarianism is going to outcompete the west economically and bring in a century of Centralized control
This isn't going to happen. China is all but collapsing
2/ Thanks to the one-child policy China has amongst the worst demographics of any country in the world.
According to official numbers China's population is on track to decline from 1.4 billion to 700 million by century's end, Halving...
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But experts who track leaks and other metrics think it is even worse than the CCP's official numbers suggest. They suspect Chinese population growth is already negative and could drop below 1 billion as early as 2050.
There's a lot of doomerism in the US and while some of this can verge really deranged, there are some really core insights you get from Rad Libertarians, Preppers, and geopolitics watchers, that most people simply have not internalized.
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Globally Every institution that makes up the modern world is about 80 years old
Every major government institution was set into place during or immediately after WW2.
Social security, education, health schemes, military policy...
And they've been impossible to change since
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The problem is every single one of these institutions assumes 1940s demographics where everyone has 3-4 kids and almost everyone dies of a heart attack at 65.
Medicare and Social Security were minor budget items when they came out...
Few understand how much warfare has changed in 70 years.
Sure most look at the Afghan defeats of the Soviets then the US and conclude insurgencies matter, but Afghanistan is a place these empires should have won!
the guerillas lacked their ultimate weapon:
Mega-cities
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Cities have always challenged armies.
Troy held 10 years, Athens held off the Spartans 30 years, hell Constantinople maintained its shrinking empire/kingdom/city-state 1000 years after Rome fell.
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the European theatre of WW2 was defined by 2 massive urban battles.
First Stalingrad broke the Wehrmacht's forward momentum and ended German dreams of Russian conquest
2 million people died in that city
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It was only 3km deep from the surrounding fields to the Volga river
"If you think you need to have weapons to take on the government, you need F-15s and maybe some nuclear weapons"
Biden echoed what lots of establishment types believe when he said this, but is there any truth to it?
Obviously not
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First of all... no. Resorting to nuclear escalations in low intensity urban and suburban insurgency skirmishes is obviously a horrible idea
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and as for F-15s or Drones (as if it really makes a difference where the pilots chair is located)...
Well that deals with the one insurgent, but now likewise you've got to deal with all his neighbors who took exception you turning their block or complex into a testing range
🧵Fedposting is your Civic Duty🧵
(Not legal advise) 1/
Probably no secret police force in world history has achieved a greater psychological victory than the US letter Agencies in the 21st century.
The tabooing of "FedPosting" is now almost total on the internet.
2/ On dissident forums across the web no sooner has someone advocated revolution or invoked the image of a guillotine before the accusation of "Fed" starts flying
Statements are said to "Glow" and participants called "Glowies" if they advocate anything but ineffective activism
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In this the letter agencies and particularly the FBI have achieved a psychological victory over dissenters to the regime greater than almost any security force in the history of the modern world...
And they have won this without any legal grounding whatsoever.