A year ago, a russian propaganda memo surfaced on the internet, garnering attention not just for its propaganda content but also for its ridiculousness. It circulated among pro-russian informants and has recently been found among detained pro-Russian agents again. 🧵Thread:
2/ Authors explain Russia's motive to occupy Ukraine in the introduction. One of the highlighted arguments explaining the Ukrainian revolution of 2014 was summarized by authors as follows: "The villagers who broke into Kyiv created a new reality, where they felt like masters."
3/ According to the authors, the war was triggered by the construction of NATO bases. Control over nuclear energy was assumed by Americans and Brits, and the US DoD established biolabs in Ukraine for researching and producing bioweapons, even conducting human experiments
4/ The memo continues, stating that Ukraine became a Mecca for foreign mercenaries from Georgia and Chechen criminal organizations. It also states that Syrian terrorists were brought into Ukraine under the cover of humanitarian aid.
5/ Another highlighted sentence claims that "Since 2014, illiterate and barely speaking in Ukrainian veterans started visiting schools and colleges to teach youth about patriotism." Now, let's examine some of the practical recommendations outlined in the memo.
6/ Among the recommendations, some are serious, while others are absurd. For instance, it suggests speaking Ukrainian slowly to make the other person switch to Russian during conversation.
7/ It also suggests that they should refrain from participating in any "patriotic" events and avoid purchasing literature or any publications in the Ukrainian language. Instead, it recommends obtaining information from “reputable” online outlets.
8/ The memo continues with specific recommendations based on one's position or role in society. For managers in administrative work, it suggests organizing frequent meetings, refraining from fighting corruption, and assigning unachievable tasks.
9/ For governmental workers, the instructions are as follows: prolong tasks, avoid refilling resources until they are completely exhausted (e.g., ink or paper in the printer) as this can halt the entire process.
10/ Governmental workers are also advised to prioritize secondary tasks over main ones, discourage efficient workers, and promote the least effective ones. Moreover, the memo suggests increasing reports and bureaucracy as part of their approach.
11/ Office workers are encouraged to take more breaks, spend extra time in the bathroom, spread rumors about potential layoffs, refrain from sharing experience, complain about computer, and request repairs frequently. Other users’ documents and files are advised to be deleted.
12/ Police workers are advised to inform individuals who are planned to be detained and to assist those who have already been detained. Additionally, the memo suggests destroying collected evidence whenever possible.
13/ The most intriguing part targets "people in 3rd countries." The instructions suggest creating social media accounts in the local language, commenting on foreign media, sending letters to news agencies requesting objective coverage of Russia, and joining local communities.
14/ It is suggested to organize demonstrations with supporters of traditional values, freedom of speech, and opponents of "NATO aggression". These demonstrations should always be documented with photos and videos, which are then to be forwarded to TASS, RIA-Novosti, or Interfax.
15/ In conclusion, this document appears to be one of the most absurd ones I've encountered on the subject. Perhaps, after reading it you might discover that your office coworker, who excessively uses printer ink and takes extended bathroom breaks, could be a Russian spy.
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One of the most critical yet unresolved questions of this war is the true impact of drone attacks inside Russia. Our team has been working with media organizations and volunteers to tackle this. But finding the answer isn’t easy, and we need your support. Here’s how you can help:
2/ The simplest and most effective way to support our investigation is through donations. This helps cover essential expenses like satellite imagery, expert analysis, and time. You can donate via BuyMeaCoffee:
3/ We’re also looking for volunteers to assess the damage, particularly those with expertise in damage surveys, industrial building damage assessments, and the oil and gas industry: especially in evaluating potential refinery damage. Feel free to contact us at
frontel@proton.me
As we move into the second month of the year, Frontelligence Insight has prepared an early assessment report covering recent developments on the frontlines and within both Ukrainian and Russian military forces. Below are some key highlights from the report. 1/ 🧵Thread:
2/ The frontline dynamics for Ukraine remain challenging, with setbacks in Pokrovsk, Chasiv Yar, Kupyansk, and Toretsk. While leadership is working to address organizational and recruitment issues, it will take time for these changes to be implemented and impact the battlefield.
3/ Russian forces are facing high losses, with tens of thousands of AWOL cases and a significant depletion of armored vehicles, which are being replaced by civilian transport. Nevertheless, they continue advancing in areas where Ukrainian defenses are stretched with few people
In collaboration with @casusbellii, our team Frontelligence Insight investigated a large Russian convoy: over 100 vehicles, including tanks, trucks, IFVs, artillery, and other equipment, that rolled into Bamako, Mali. We've assessed its composition and origins. 🧵Thread:
2/ On January 17, 2025, local media Cap Mali+, streamed a more than 30-minute video of a column of vehicles passing through unnamed Malian streets. The convoy included over 100 vehicles, with roughly half consisting of trucks and the other half made up of combat vehicles
3/ The location of the footage was geolocated to the southwestern outskirts of Bamako, near coordinates 12.545009, -8.120543. The convoy was moving toward the center of the Malian capital.
You may not have heard of tantalum, but there’s a good chance it’s in the phone or computer you're using to read this. It’s also a key part in Russia’s military electronics, and its shortage, driven by sanctions, is causing disruptions. Frontelligence Insight's latest assessment:
2/ Russia relies on tantalum to produce tantalum powders for capacitors used in control, navigation, and signal processing systems. While Russia has tantalum deposits, they are limited, and it lacks advanced processing facilities to process a raw tantalum
3/ Historically, tantalum processing has been conducted at the Ulba Metallurgical Plant in Kazakhstan, a facility built during the Soviet era. When sanctions were implemented, Kazakhstan joined them, cutting off Russia’s primary supply of processed tantalum.
1/ Why is Ukraine losing ground? There are many explanations, ranging from a lack of aid to a lack of political will to win. The reality, however, is far more complex. This thread offers a brief excerpt from my recent analysis, with the full link provided at the end.
🧵Thread:
2/ Many struggles that the Ukrainian military faces stem from before 2022 and have scaled significantly by 2025. A mobilized force, where teachers, farmers, and IT workers replaced the professional core, turned what began as 'growing pains' into systemic flaws
3/ A damning report on Ukraine’s 155th Anne of Kyiv Brigade grotesquely exposed systematic issues. Despite training in France and sufficient funding and equipment, the unit faced high AWOL rates and fragmentation across frontline units. The issues that lead to it are systematic
When Bashar al-Assad’s regime fell in Syria, a critical geopolitical question emerged: can Russia maintain its foothold in the MENA region, and if so, how? What does this mean for Ukraine? Below are the key points from the latest Frontelligence Insight report:
2/ Maxar satellite images, dated December 17, show an unusual buildup of vehicles at the Tartus Naval Base. Video from site show that most of these vehicles are logistical, with only a few appearing to be combat vehicles. We identified approximately 150 vehicles and 29 containers
3/ It is assessed that the vehicles are likely being prepared for evacuation from the Tartus by naval vessels. Indications suggest that two Russian cargo ships, Sparta and Ursa Major, could be involved in the operation. It could take over a week for them to reach the port