A year ago, a russian propaganda memo surfaced on the internet, garnering attention not just for its propaganda content but also for its ridiculousness. It circulated among pro-russian informants and has recently been found among detained pro-Russian agents again. 🧵Thread:
2/ Authors explain Russia's motive to occupy Ukraine in the introduction. One of the highlighted arguments explaining the Ukrainian revolution of 2014 was summarized by authors as follows: "The villagers who broke into Kyiv created a new reality, where they felt like masters."
3/ According to the authors, the war was triggered by the construction of NATO bases. Control over nuclear energy was assumed by Americans and Brits, and the US DoD established biolabs in Ukraine for researching and producing bioweapons, even conducting human experiments
4/ The memo continues, stating that Ukraine became a Mecca for foreign mercenaries from Georgia and Chechen criminal organizations. It also states that Syrian terrorists were brought into Ukraine under the cover of humanitarian aid.
5/ Another highlighted sentence claims that "Since 2014, illiterate and barely speaking in Ukrainian veterans started visiting schools and colleges to teach youth about patriotism." Now, let's examine some of the practical recommendations outlined in the memo.
6/ Among the recommendations, some are serious, while others are absurd. For instance, it suggests speaking Ukrainian slowly to make the other person switch to Russian during conversation.
7/ It also suggests that they should refrain from participating in any "patriotic" events and avoid purchasing literature or any publications in the Ukrainian language. Instead, it recommends obtaining information from “reputable” online outlets.
8/ The memo continues with specific recommendations based on one's position or role in society. For managers in administrative work, it suggests organizing frequent meetings, refraining from fighting corruption, and assigning unachievable tasks.
9/ For governmental workers, the instructions are as follows: prolong tasks, avoid refilling resources until they are completely exhausted (e.g., ink or paper in the printer) as this can halt the entire process.
10/ Governmental workers are also advised to prioritize secondary tasks over main ones, discourage efficient workers, and promote the least effective ones. Moreover, the memo suggests increasing reports and bureaucracy as part of their approach.
11/ Office workers are encouraged to take more breaks, spend extra time in the bathroom, spread rumors about potential layoffs, refrain from sharing experience, complain about computer, and request repairs frequently. Other users’ documents and files are advised to be deleted.
12/ Police workers are advised to inform individuals who are planned to be detained and to assist those who have already been detained. Additionally, the memo suggests destroying collected evidence whenever possible.
13/ The most intriguing part targets "people in 3rd countries." The instructions suggest creating social media accounts in the local language, commenting on foreign media, sending letters to news agencies requesting objective coverage of Russia, and joining local communities.
14/ It is suggested to organize demonstrations with supporters of traditional values, freedom of speech, and opponents of "NATO aggression". These demonstrations should always be documented with photos and videos, which are then to be forwarded to TASS, RIA-Novosti, or Interfax.
15/ In conclusion, this document appears to be one of the most absurd ones I've encountered on the subject. Perhaps, after reading it you might discover that your office coworker, who excessively uses printer ink and takes extended bathroom breaks, could be a Russian spy.
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One of the biggest problems of this war is that Ukraine and the West haven’t clearly defined what "winning" looks like. This has allowed the Russians to present the "Istanbul Agreements" as the only viable negotiation framework, due to the absence of a well-defined alternative.
2/ The "Victory Plan" presented by Zelensky is not a true negotiation framework, and it didn’t resonate with the previous administration, let alone the current White House administration. Of course, there are alternative options, such as Russia retreating to 1991 borders
3/ The problem is that Russia won't do that, and there is no realistic enforcement mechanism, short of intervention. The United States isn’t going to bomb Russia. This raises the question: what does a "desired outcome," based on the realities on the ground, actually look like?
Almost every day, we hear about strikes against targets inside Russia, but we rarely get the full picture of their actual impact on the war. Radio Liberty and Frontelligence Insight have joined efforts to analyze hundreds of data points to answer this question.
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2/ Our research covered the period from September 2024 to February 2025, divided into two sections: strikes on military targets, infrastructure, and on the energy sector. We found that strikes on Russia’s energy sector caused at least $658 million in damage over ~6 months
3/ The real damage to the Russian energy sector and the economy as a whole may be higher. In at least 67 out of 100 cases, Ukrainian strikes were successful, while in another 33 cases the result of the attacks remains unknown or it is impossible to prove Ukraine's involvement.
Kursk Offensive: A Preliminary Assessment by Frontelligence Insight.
A condensed version of report for X. 🧵Thread:
1/ With Ukrainian forces withdrawing from Sudzha, the operation is clearly approaching its conclusion though it is not yet entirely over.
2/ To assess the operation, not in isolation, but within the broader context of the war, we broke down the Kursk operation into 3 key questions: whether its geopolitical objectives were met, whether the attrition rate was favorable, and whether it achieved battlefield success
3/ To determine equipment attrition, we analyzed data from OSINT analyst @naalsio26, who tracks losses across multiple frontlines. Our graphs show losses from August to March but are not exhaustive, as they exclude some retreat-related losses. The cut-off date was March 10.
Frontelligence Insight Special Report: AWOL Trends and Casualty Ratios in Russia and Ukraine
In assessing overall manpower casualty ratios, we analyzed Russian AWOL figures alongside Ukrainian estimates, factoring in KIA, MIA, and recruitment rates to assess the war’s prospects
2/ Thanks to @InformNapalm, a Ukrainian OSINT community, we analyzed a screenshot of a Russian presentation slide detailing desertion numbers. The percentage and corresponding figures allowed us to calculate the total number of AWOL cases across all Russian military districts.
3/ As shown in the translated graph, the Southern MD has the highest number of desertion cases. This is unsurprising, as it includes the former 1st and 2nd Army Corps (now the 51st and 3rd CAAs), which are largely composed of forcibly mobilized residents from occupied territories
One of the most critical yet unresolved questions of this war is the true impact of drone attacks inside Russia. Our team has been working with media organizations and volunteers to tackle this. But finding the answer isn’t easy, and we need your support. Here’s how you can help:
2/ The simplest and most effective way to support our investigation is through donations. This helps cover essential expenses like satellite imagery, expert analysis, and time. You can donate via BuyMeaCoffee:
3/ We’re also looking for volunteers to assess the damage, particularly those with expertise in damage surveys, industrial building damage assessments, and the oil and gas industry: especially in evaluating potential refinery damage. Feel free to contact us at
frontel@proton.me
As we move into the second month of the year, Frontelligence Insight has prepared an early assessment report covering recent developments on the frontlines and within both Ukrainian and Russian military forces. Below are some key highlights from the report. 1/ 🧵Thread:
2/ The frontline dynamics for Ukraine remain challenging, with setbacks in Pokrovsk, Chasiv Yar, Kupyansk, and Toretsk. While leadership is working to address organizational and recruitment issues, it will take time for these changes to be implemented and impact the battlefield.
3/ Russian forces are facing high losses, with tens of thousands of AWOL cases and a significant depletion of armored vehicles, which are being replaced by civilian transport. Nevertheless, they continue advancing in areas where Ukrainian defenses are stretched with few people