A year ago, a russian propaganda memo surfaced on the internet, garnering attention not just for its propaganda content but also for its ridiculousness. It circulated among pro-russian informants and has recently been found among detained pro-Russian agents again. 🧵Thread:
2/ Authors explain Russia's motive to occupy Ukraine in the introduction. One of the highlighted arguments explaining the Ukrainian revolution of 2014 was summarized by authors as follows: "The villagers who broke into Kyiv created a new reality, where they felt like masters."
3/ According to the authors, the war was triggered by the construction of NATO bases. Control over nuclear energy was assumed by Americans and Brits, and the US DoD established biolabs in Ukraine for researching and producing bioweapons, even conducting human experiments
4/ The memo continues, stating that Ukraine became a Mecca for foreign mercenaries from Georgia and Chechen criminal organizations. It also states that Syrian terrorists were brought into Ukraine under the cover of humanitarian aid.
5/ Another highlighted sentence claims that "Since 2014, illiterate and barely speaking in Ukrainian veterans started visiting schools and colleges to teach youth about patriotism." Now, let's examine some of the practical recommendations outlined in the memo.
6/ Among the recommendations, some are serious, while others are absurd. For instance, it suggests speaking Ukrainian slowly to make the other person switch to Russian during conversation.
7/ It also suggests that they should refrain from participating in any "patriotic" events and avoid purchasing literature or any publications in the Ukrainian language. Instead, it recommends obtaining information from “reputable” online outlets.
8/ The memo continues with specific recommendations based on one's position or role in society. For managers in administrative work, it suggests organizing frequent meetings, refraining from fighting corruption, and assigning unachievable tasks.
9/ For governmental workers, the instructions are as follows: prolong tasks, avoid refilling resources until they are completely exhausted (e.g., ink or paper in the printer) as this can halt the entire process.
10/ Governmental workers are also advised to prioritize secondary tasks over main ones, discourage efficient workers, and promote the least effective ones. Moreover, the memo suggests increasing reports and bureaucracy as part of their approach.
11/ Office workers are encouraged to take more breaks, spend extra time in the bathroom, spread rumors about potential layoffs, refrain from sharing experience, complain about computer, and request repairs frequently. Other users’ documents and files are advised to be deleted.
12/ Police workers are advised to inform individuals who are planned to be detained and to assist those who have already been detained. Additionally, the memo suggests destroying collected evidence whenever possible.
13/ The most intriguing part targets "people in 3rd countries." The instructions suggest creating social media accounts in the local language, commenting on foreign media, sending letters to news agencies requesting objective coverage of Russia, and joining local communities.
14/ It is suggested to organize demonstrations with supporters of traditional values, freedom of speech, and opponents of "NATO aggression". These demonstrations should always be documented with photos and videos, which are then to be forwarded to TASS, RIA-Novosti, or Interfax.
15/ In conclusion, this document appears to be one of the most absurd ones I've encountered on the subject. Perhaps, after reading it you might discover that your office coworker, who excessively uses printer ink and takes extended bathroom breaks, could be a Russian spy.
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Ukraine is likely approaching the final stages of the active phase of the war. I suggest taking a look at my assessment, which draws on General Budanov’s overlooked speech at the Yalta Conference, along with insights from other reports and assessments
🧵Thread:
2/ Any war of attrition tests endurance, economics, diplomacy, and the ability to replace losses. As the war continues, these issues intensify, pushing one side closer to a tipping point. Production and the capacity to replace losses are tangible factors that can be projected
3/ One notable point from Budanov’s speech was Russia’s plan to produce 149 T-90M tanks in 2024.
Russia has been heavily relying on refurbishing older tank models from its Soviet-era stockpiles. Most of its current tank fleet on the battlefield is no longer in production.
After reviewing an internal correspondence leak from a Russian military electronics plant "Mikropribor", Frontelligence Insight, with data provided by @CyberResUa discovered that the production of the Su-57 is in jeopardy without access to crucial Western components. 🧵Thread:
2/ According to correspondence between the head of the procurement bureau at the "Red Banner" plant (a part of Almaz-Antei) and "Mikropribor" in August 2022, Mikropribor was given a list of required equipment for the MPPU-50. Keep this device name in mind- it's important
3/ The provided list consists of foreign-made components, including the WA36 Fixed Attenuator, EA-PS 3150, and PLR7 60-12 power supplies, all sourced by various Russian companies. The goal of procurement is to ensure the assembly of automated workstations for testing the MPPU-50
An alleged drone strike has targeted the Tikhoretsk ammo depot, according to early reports. The depot, closely monitored by Frontelligence Insight for its role in artillery ammo logistics, gained international attention in 2023 following the arrival of North Korean ammo.
🧵Thread
2/ Krasnodar Governor Veniamin Kondratyev reported that two UAVs targeting Tikhoretsk were "suppressed", with debris causing a fire and detonation of flammable materials. Videos on social media suggest a large denotation
Screenshot from the video posted by @war_monitor_ua
3/ The Tikhoretsk ammo depot was expanded in 2023 to store North Korean munitions. Most ammo arrived by train in containers, unloaded and stored in revetments - essentially pits in the ground under open sky. Civilian trucks then transported the munitions to frontlines
As Russian forces close in on Pokrovsk, a key logistical hub in Ukraine's Donbas region, concerns about its potential loss are mounting. There is uncertainty about why Pokrovsk is more significant than other recently lost towns. This thread aims to clarify this and other aspects:
2/ Before falling to Russian forces in February 2024, Avdiivka was vital for Ukrainian troops, serving as a fortress, protecting key logistical routes in Donetsk Oblast, and a potential foothold for deoccupying Donetsk. Since 2022, Russia has invested heavily in capturing it
3/ Pokrovsk, with a pre-war population of ~60,000, lies west of Avdiivka at a key railroad crossroads. It has become a key distribution hub, supporting Ukrainian forces along a broad frontline from Vuhledar to the north of Donetsk and beyond. The railways are highlighted in red
Ukrainian MFA stated that Belarusian armed forces are concentrating a significant number of personnel, weapons, and equipment near Ukraine's northern border under the guise of exercises
🧵It's still early to draw any definitive conclusions, but a few points should be considered:
2/ In February 2024, Frontelligence Insight and Rochan Consulting released an analysis of the Belarusian military's readiness, concluding that its combat units are typically manned at only 30-40% capacity, relying heavily on mobilization, with the rest filled during mobilization
3/ This suggests that if Belarus was seriously preparing for a major invasion, significant mobilization efforts would be seen. For fairness, this doesn’t rule out the possibility of an attack; it's more about the potential scale of attack if ever happens
Joe Lonsdale, founder of 8VC and employer of the son of sanctioned Russian oligarch Vadim Moshkovich, has brushed off allegations of Moshkovich's involvement in drone production. For clarity, let's focus on the facts, documents, and records.
🧵Thread:
2/ First, let’s examine the rule issued by the U.S. Department of Commerce and the Bureau of Industry and Security. It clearly states that Assistagro and Geomiragro are contributing to the development of military-grade drones in Russia.
3/ Vadim Moshkovich is the founder of several companies, including AssistAgro. His role as both founder and investor in this company can be confirmed through various sources, including public company databases, official records, and media reports. Sources in the next tweet