Thread by @Mylovanov

New developments in Ukraine

1. Russia threatens to attack any ship to Ukraine

2. Russia puts out demands to renew the grain deal

4. Russia intensifies missile attacks

3. Ukraine counteroffensive has achieved success in 3 directions

4. Ukraine targets Crimea, again 1/

Grain deal. Russia has issued a warning that every ship in the Black Sea going to Ukraine through international or Ukrainian waters is considered to be a participant of the war, regardless of cargo, origin, and country. Russia will consider it a legitimate military target. 2/

This is terrorism, plain and simple. This is, of course, a violation of every possible maritime norm and international law. 3/

Putin has stated that Russia has been always keeping its part of the grain deal while the rest of the world violated its conditions. He said that he would consider returning to the deal if the conditions are met.

This is false. Putins conditions weren’t part of the deal. 4/

So this is essentially blackmail. “You let me have my way or I bomb the ships”. Now, Putin threatens not only Ukraine but the rest of the world.

Russia also said that every ship that tries to go to Ukraine will implicate its country as a party to the war. 5/

What are the conditions by Putin to restore the grain deal?

1. Removal of sanctions on agricultural shipments.

The problem with that is that there are no such sanctions.

2. Reconnecting Russian banks to SWIFT.

Some banks are still connected and there are no restrictions 6

On payment related to agriculture and fertilizers.

3. Allowing insurance for Russian ships.

Again, this insurance is allowed if what Russia ships is agriculture and not oil. Furthermore, oil shipments are insured if the contracts are under the price cap. 7/

So, basically Putin wants to trade oil above the price cap and uses food security as a leverage to achieve that.

There are other bogus demands of similar type, eg, allowing import for agricultural equipment. This import is allowed, unless of course it is a hidden defense import

What happened quite often is that Russia imports civilian components for agriculture, health industry etc and then they end up in drones and missiles. So, there kind of imports are now monitored, controlled, and verified if necessary. Russia doesn’t like it. 8/

Putin has made it clear that he never intended to use the grain deal to help with food security in the world but just as a leverage tool to remove sanctions. His behavior also shows that sanctions are stating to bite. 9/

3. Russia reports that four buildings in Crimea were damaged overnight by drones.

Ukraine continues to put pressure on Crimea. It is a strategic objective for Ukraine to make Crimea impossible to hold. 10/

4. Overnight Russia has launched 19 missiles and 19 drones. This is a second in a row attack of such scale. Ukraine has been able to intercept 5 out of 19 missiles and 13 out of 19 drones.

The damage is significant. Ukraine needs better air defense to render these attacks… twitter.com/i/web/status/1…

The institute for study of war reports that Ukrainian forces conducted counteroffensive operations on at least three sectors of the front on July 19 and made gains in these areas, including Avdiivka, Bakhmut, Melitopol directions.

It is day 513 of the invasion. 12X