Thomas C. Theiner Profile picture
Jul 20, 2023 19 tweets 7 min read Read on X
A new Pentagon budget realignment file dropped (thank you @osmnactej for finding it).

Again it has a lot of interesting info about what weapons have been sent to Ukraine... and what the Pentagon is ordering more than $2 billion from the US industry to replace it.
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• $105.5m Javelin Anti-tank guided missiles
• $3.35m M67 Hand grenades

It seems a lot of smoke grenades have been given to Ukraine (which are used by infantry as here in Iraq):
• $2.78m M18 Smoke grenades (Red)
• $0.59m M18 Smoke grenades (Yellow)
• $1.55m M8 Smoke Pots
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• $38.4m M7A4 Bradley Fire Support Team (BFIST) artillery forward observer vehicles
• $15.6m 25mm ammo for the Bradleys' M242 chain gun
• $1.14m Bradley spares
• $0.2m Bradley Operator Tablets

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Other infantry equipment:
• $3.06m M2 and M240 machine guns, and M2 modifications
• $3.05m M2 .50 ammo

Until now the US delivered $2.18m in night vision devices to Ukraine... this time: $58.14m!
• $29.6m PVS-7 Night Vision Goggles
• $28.5m PVS-14 Night Vision Monoculars
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M1235A4 MaxxPro DASH OGPK vehicles & M1151A1 Integrated Armor Package Humvees given to Ukraine are being replaced with JLTV Heavy Gun vehicles respectively M1165A1B3 Expanded Capacity Command & Control/General Purpose Humvees.

• $51.1m JLTV
• $23.3m M1165A1B3
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A lot of demolition munitions for breaching obstacles, with three things standing out:

• $7.86m Clearing charges
• $3.01m MP03 Bangalore Torpedo Demolition Kits
• $3.32m MK155 Mine Clearance System Launcher
6/n
Ukraine also received Selectable Lightweight Attack Munition (SLAM), which is a demolition munition AND an off-route mine AND a belly attack mine. It can be triggered by the operator, by its passive infrared sensor or its magnetic influence sensor, in

• $2.65m M4A1 SLAM
7/n
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short I think this means Ukrainian special forces and partisans are placing SLAMs in the russian rear to ambush russian vehicles.

And now let's move on to artillery, which at $1.634 billion is once again forms the lion's share of the Pentagon's acquisitions.
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• $122.4m for M992A3 Carrier Ammunition Tracked (CAT) vehicles, which carry extra rounds and charges for the M109A6 Paladin self-propelled howitzers given to Ukraine.

In total the Pentagon is buying $1 billion of M109A7 and M992A3 CATs in FY23. So it is likely Ukraine will
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receive more M109A6 in the future.

The realignment file also contains a "classified effort"... but thanks to the overall acquisition sum for this effort I can say that it is GMLRS rockets:

• $71.3m "classified effort" ($2,1 billion in FY23) = around 12,450 M30/M31 rockets
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$193.7m are spent on "Ammunition Production Base Support Industrial Facilities":

• $18.5m for increased 155mm acceptance testing
• $24.7m for new Iowa Army Ammunition Plant (pictured) industrial facilities and
• $150.5m for new Load, Assemble and Pack (LAP) facilities

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In total the Pentagon has spent by now at least $777.55m to increase US 155mm artillery ammo production capacity. Another $65m is being spent on the facilitization of HF-1 Steel for artillery shells.
For the first time the Pentagon is listing High Explosives for artillery
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ammo production, which makes me suspect it has to be bought it from a foreign source:
• $32.1m IMX-104 for undisclosed 155mm rounds
• $47.6m TNT for M795 artillery rounds

The Pentagon is also spending $123m for redesigned components for obsolete Excalibur parts, which
12/n
will allow the increase of Excalibur production.
Speaking of which:

• $41.1m M982A1 Excalibur ($801.8m FY23 total = around 8,000 rounds), which are being used extensively by Ukraine to hit russian vehicles and equipment.


13/n
Other artillery ammo:

• $70.6m M795 High Explosive rounds
• $158m for undisclosed "155mm extended range projectiles", which I suspect are the new M1113 RAP projectiles, which replace M549A1 RAP.

Due to its streamlined shape and high-performance rocket motor the M1113
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has a range of 40+ km (M549A1 RAP: 30km). Likely Ukraine is receiving all the remaining M549A1 RAP.

As for fuzes - the Pentagon is ordering two:
• $15.15m M739 Point Detonating fuzes
• $76.48m M767 Electronic Time fuzes

The latter is a surprise... I would have expected
15/n
an order for M762 Electronic Time fuzes, which are used for base ejecting projectiles... like the M483A1 DPICM and M864 DPICM cluster munitions projectiles.

M767 is used with High Explosive rounds or i.e. M110 Smoke projectiles... it could be that the US is running out of
16/n
M739 fuzes and using the M767, which includes a point detonating option, as a interim solution until M739 production can be ramped up (The Pentagon earmarked $33m for a new M739 production line in July 2022).

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No howitzer can function without charges... and this time the Pentagon is spending $541.27m on charges (!) and another $70m on MACS material.

And this is interesting: so far the Pentagon ordered only M231 (pictured the green blocks) and M232A1 charges, and also spent $265m
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More from @noclador

Sep 13
Of course russia can quickly seize the Suwałki Gap and cut of the Baltics from the rest of NATO... but have you had a look at Kaliningrad's border and the flat dry country beyond?

There are 9 Polish brigades in that area (and 11 in reserve, with 4 more forming). Sure russia
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could move 50,000+ men to Kaliningrad to secure the border or build a defence line along the Pregoła river... but those need to be supplied from Belarus, which also is easily invaded unless russia sends 50,000+ troops to secure its flank there. A buildup of 200,000+ russian
2/5
troops in Belarus would be noticed by NATO (and ordinary people in Belarus, who would upload 100s of videos of the arriving russians).
In summary the main risk isn't that russia suddenly seizes and fortifies the Suwałki Gap... the main risk is that russia starts building up
3/5
Read 5 tweets
Sep 7
The North Atlantic - one of the key battles in a russia-Europe war.

If Europe is defeated here, which with Europe's current forces and capabilities, is almost certain to happen... then russia can nuke the UK without fear of retaliation.

This will be a unsettling thread:
1/40 Image
This battle will be very different from the battles in the Black Sea and Baltic Sea, which I discussed in an early thread, which is linked below.

To understand the North Atlantic Battle we need to look at Imperial Germany's WWI submarine campaign,


2/n
and at the WWII Battle of the Atlantic. We will also have to take a deep dive into the Cold War and that era's submarines and submarine tactics.

In WWI the Imperial German Navy sent some 300+ submarines into the Atlantic, which sank more than 4,000 merchant vessels. The UK
3/n Image
Read 41 tweets
Sep 4
2 days ago I did a thread about the reasons russia can't defeat Ukraine and yet is still a deadly threat to Europe and NATO (link to the thread the next tweet).

Today I will talk about three of the fronts of a russia-Europe war:
1) Black Sea
2) Baltic Sea
3) North Atlantic

1/36 Image
These three fronts will be air and sea battles, while Finland and the Baltics will be air and land battles; about which I will talk in another thread in the coming days.

I do not believe the US under control of Trump or Vance would come to the aid
2/n
of Europe... we will be on our own, which will have very dire consequences for the battle in the North Atlantic and thus the UK.

First, let's look at the Black Sea, where russia's Black Sea Fleet has already been savaged by the Ukrainians (pic: the sinking cruiser Moskva).
3/n Image
Read 36 tweets
Sep 1
• russia has no chance to defeat Ukraine
• russia is a deadly threat to NATO and the EU

Both of these are true... because as of 2025 Ukraine fields a far more capable military than NATO's 30 European members combined (!).

Let me explain.
1/39 Image
As of August 2025 russia fields more than 1,3 million troops; at least half of which are fighting in or against Ukraine.

Ukraine has an estimated 1 million troops... maybe even 1,1 million troops. NATO's European members have double that: some 2.2 million troops, but
2/n Image
(there is always a "but" with European militaries):

• with more than double the personnel European NATO members manage to field only 20% more combat brigades than Ukraine. Partly because Western navies and air forces are bigger, but mostly because in all European militaries
3/n Image
Read 39 tweets
Aug 18
People forget that for most if its history Europe was much, much more militarized than even during the Cold War.

Italy, from the end of the Third War of Independence in 1866 to 1939 fielded always 360-400 battalions, which fell to 110-115 during the Cold War, as the US
1/14 Image
backed its European allies with the its massive air force. Today Italy fields 41 battalions (infantry, tanks, recon, special forces, rangers).

Likewise the British Army fielded for most of its history (especially after the 1908 Haldane reforms) 450-480 battalions, which came
2/n Image
in three types: 150-160 regular battalions (of which a third was always in India), around 100 reserve battalions to provide replacements for the regular battalions, and 200-220 territorial battalions, which (at least on paper) could not be deployed overseas. The British Army
3/n
Read 14 tweets
Jul 4
This is Berlin.

And this is how Berlin would look like 3 days after putin attacks Europe... because Germany doesn't have the air defence ammo to defend any of its city for more than 2 days.
1/12 Image
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This is Copenhagen.

And this is how Copenhagen would look like the morning after putin attacks Europe... because Denmark doesn't have any air defence to defend itself.
2/12 Image
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This is Paris.

And this is how Paris would look like a day after putin attacks Europe... because France only has SAMP/T air defence systems, which is as of now has very limited capabilities against ballistic missiles.
3/12 Image
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Read 12 tweets

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