Tymofiy Mylovanov Profile picture
Jul 20 9 tweets 2 min read Twitter logo Read on Twitter
Ukraine reciprocates to Russia's threat to Black Sea vessels: Ships to/from Russian and temporarily occupied Ukrainian ports are now valid military targets.

This tit-for-tat situation is intriguing; Russia threatens Ukrainian ships, Ukraine responds similarly. 1/
The formal statement by the military of defense of Ukraine reads:

the Russian Federation has once again blatantly violated the universal right to free navigation and deliberately undermined food security, condemning millions of people to starvation 2/
By openly threatening civilian vessels transporting food from Ukrainian ports, launching missile attacks and drone attacks on civilian infrastructure in peaceful cities, deliberately creating a military threat on trade routes, the Kremlin has turned the Black Sea 3/
into a danger zone, primarily for Russian vessels and vessels sailing in the Black Sea towards Russian seaports and Ukrainian seaports located on the territory of Ukraine temporarily occupied by Russia. Responsibility for all risks lies entirely with the Russian leadership. 4/
The fate of the Moskva cruiser proves that the Ukrainian Defense Forces have the necessary means to repel Russian aggression at sea. 5/
The Ministry of Defense of Ukraine warns that starting from 00:00 on July 21, 2023, all vessels sailing in the Black Sea in the direction of the seaports of the Russian Federation and Ukrainian seaports located in the territory of Ukraine temporarily occupied by Russia 6/
may be considered by Ukraine as carrying military cargo with all the corresponding risks. 7/
In addition, shipping in the areas of the North-Eastern Black Sea and the Kerch-Yenikal Strait of Ukraine is prohibited as dangerous, starting from 05:00 on July 20, 2023. The relevant navigational information for mariners has already been published. 8/
So, Ukraine basically says “Russia back to you”. This how Russia should be handled. If Russia is at war and thinks it can do whatever it wants in the Black Sea without consequences, it will be proved wrong. 9X

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More from @Mylovanov

Jul 20
Contrary to the belief that Ukraine's reconstruction hinges on massive capital, lenient monetary policy, and fiscal deficits, a @cepr_org report posits that sustainable public finances and market-oriented reforms are key.

Main points of the report: 1/ Image
The puts forward a macroeconomic framework for Ukraine's reconstruction and recovery after the war.

It makes recommendations in four areas:

1. fiscal policy
2. monetary and financial sector policies
3. labour market
4. regulatory environment 2/
The single main point of the report is that sustainable public finances, sound monetary policy, flexible labor markets, and a fair regulatory environment need to work together to deliver macroeconomic stability. 3/
Read 12 tweets
Jul 20
New developments in Ukraine

1. Russia threatens to attack any ship to Ukraine

2. Russia puts out demands to renew the grain deal

4. Russia intensifies missile attacks

3. Ukraine counteroffensive has achieved success in 3 directions

4. Ukraine targets Crimea, again 1/
Grain deal. Russia has issued a warning that every ship in the Black Sea going to Ukraine through international or Ukrainian waters is considered to be a participant of the war, regardless of cargo, origin, and country. Russia will consider it a legitimate military target. 2/
This is terrorism, plain and simple. This is, of course, a violation of every possible maritime norm and international law. 3/
Read 13 tweets
Jul 18
I used to be a minister of economy, trade, and agriculture of Ukraine.

So, the grain deal matters to me.

After Russia pullout, there is only one way forward: Ukraine will continue shipments (with or) without Russia.

What else? 1/
Background: Russia announced it is suspending participation in the Black Sea grain deal that enabled Ukraine to export grain despite the naval blockade. This will upset food supply stability. 2/
How many people will be affected?

UN Secretary General said the decision will negatively impact millions facing hunger and consumers worldwide.

Before the war, Ukraine provided food security to 400 mln people around the world.

So, a good third to half could be affected. 3/
Read 13 tweets
Jul 18
There are three developments in Ukraine.

1. Fighting has intensified, with Russians attacking in the direction of Kupiansk

2. Russia pulled out from the grain deal, while Zelensky stated Ukraine can continue shipping w/o Russian approval

3. Ukraine puts pressure on Crimea 1/
I believe in the long Russia won’t be able to defend Crimea.

So it is a strategic move for Ukraine to attack the Kerch bridge on Monday and send 30 drones to attack Crimea on Tuesday. 2/
Next, Russians are gradually loosing in Bakhmut. There is a risk they will be encircled there or would have to retreat. Both would be a major embarrassment for Putin given how much propaganda argued that Bakhmut is a major win for Russia. 3/
Read 7 tweets
Jul 18
How will the war end in Ukraine and what are the conditions for sustainable peace between Russia and Ukraine?

That’s a tough question I have been just asked at a conference in Greece.

The war will end and peace will be sustained with the removal of Putin from the office. 1/
The second question is easier to answer than the first.

What will make peace sustainable?

Sustainability of peace or any other agreement requires both parties to have a reputation to stick to the agreement. 2/
Without such reputations, parties will be suspicious of each other. Consequently, whenever something goes wrong, an accident, a rogue actor, an explosion, or even a mysterious death, a poisoning, or a movement of troops, it will be interpreted as a sign of violating peace. 3/
Read 15 tweets
Jul 17
Former US President Donald Trump announced in a Fox News interview on July 16th that, if re-elected, he would urge Zelensky and Putin to sign a peace treaty. What might such a treaty entail? (Spoiler: it is not as bad as you think) 1/ Image
Trump is currently the most popular candidate in the Republican party for the upcoming primaries before the 2024 presidential elections, according to public opinion polls. 2/
He is known for his pro-Russian remarks and criticism of Biden's actions. Some notable Trump's comments include: 3/
Read 12 tweets

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