Thread by @lewis_goodall

WHAT HAPPENED IF YOU'RE WAKING UP 🧵

Labour GAIN Selby and Ainsty in record win against Tories, 24% swing (maj. 4161)

Lib Dems GAIN Somerton and Frome (maj. 29% swing (maj. 11,008)

Conservatives HOLD Uxbridge and South Ruislip 6.7% swing (maj. 495)

On the face of it, those results provide something for everyone, every party won a contest. The Uxbridge result provides some much needed cover for Rishi Sunak and No.10

But that would be the wrong way to look at it. These are appallingly bad results for the Conservatives.

The Selby and Somerton results are the important ones, in terms of looking ahead to a general election.

The Selby result is nothing short of sensational. This was one of the safest Tory seats in the country. It had a 20,000 Con majority.

It's been won on a 24 point swing...

...that's far in excess of what's needed for Labour to win a majority across the country (10 point swing), let alone become the biggest party (a 7 point swing).

The Conservative won this seat with 60% of the vote in 2019. That's collapsed by nearly half.

The Selby result is the second worst result against Labour in a by-election in history.

Moreover, it's the sort of seat where this result would have seemed utterly incredible a few years ago. Northern, rural, older population, v white, affluentish and deeply leave.

Labour doesn't need to win Selby to win a majority. The Tories have a good chance of winning it back at a general election. But the fact it was won last night and won comfortably for Labour will send shivers down the necks of scores and scores of Tory MPs.

One wrinkle for Labour- huge numbers of Tories stayed at home. Question obviously is whether they might turn out when the general election comes rather than complete the switch to Lab. Reminder that there is a big gap in the political marketplace for the disillusioned right.

Somerton will be in danger of being overlooked. It shouldn't be. It caps off yet more remarkable Lib Dem success in the south of England, and this time back in their old south west heartlands. It was ANOTHER near record Lib Dem swing- 29%. Sixth best ever for the party.

This reaffirms a couple of things. The Lib Dems have returned to their status as by election winning machines. They've now won 4 this parliament, each with enormous swings off the Tories, each in rural or semi-rural seats across the south and midlands.

Both results also reaffirm that Brexit as a massively salient issue over British politics has diminished substantially, at least in leave areas. This would have seemed very far fetched as recently as a couple of years ago.

Again, there will be plenty of southern Tory MPs...

...very concerned about this result. Indeed, to take the Labour and Lib Dem results together, this picture is redolent of the mid to late 1990s and the run up to 97. Widespread disillusionment, efficient tactical voting to get the Tory out constituency by constituency,

Uxbridge will receive understandable attention, but it doesn't tell us very much about the country and the general election (though it could tell us something about the long term tenor of politics).

The Tories just about held on here. It's clear, this was easily the most...

...local contest of the three and was driven largely by ULEZ, something the winning Conservative candidate himself referred to in his victory speech. Labour were in a curious quasi-incumbent position here, with voters sending a message not to Sunak but Khan.

There are a clutch of outer London seats Labour would hope to win at a general election where ULEZ could hurt their chances. So this isn't insignificant. But (a) Labour is already so dominant in London it isn't massive (b) it isn't clear ULEZ will be so germane in a gen elex...

and (c) Londoners will have a chance to vote in a mayoral election, almost certainly before the general.

It's also worth saying that there was still a significant swing to Labour in the seat- 6.7%, that itself while massively underperforming national polls, would be nearly...

...enough to make it the largest party. In short, it's clear ULEZ massively distorted the result.

But though it's probably not v important apropos the general election, I suspect it will have an effect. It will reaffirm to Labour nationally the importance of caution...

...with regards to policy formation (their lesson will be to have even less of it) and I suspect it will embolden those arguing the party has to tread carefully with regards to environmental policies.

Indeed, the Uxbridge result could be a little taste of the politics of...

...the second half of the next decade. A Labour government pushing hard on net zero and wider environmental policies. A shattered Tory party finding something around which to cohere by opposing them. It would mirror developments on the right elsewhere in the world.

One person who should have pause about Uxbridge result is Boris Johnson. Who knows, if he hadn't been so frit, he may have won!

In sum, Sunak will get cover from Uxbridge. He avoids fate of first PM since 1968 to lose 3 by elections at once. But it should be little comfort.