Thread by @IanDunt

Interesting byelections results. In terms of next year's general election, they don't change anything. The Conservatives are set to lose and lose hard. They just lost Selby for fucks sake - a 20k majority overturned on a 23% swing. It's historic spanking territory.

The Somerton result shows the Lib Dems are poised to inflict real damage on the Tories where Labour can't, including in areas where they performed well before coalition. There are very few seats where Labour & Lib Dems are competing. They're strangling the Tories from both sides.

But the government kept Uxbridge. Their first byelection success in a long time.

It's an Ulez result, the result of local anger about a local policy That means it's not likely to be pertinent in next year's general election - it'll have been implemented already and there aren't enough outer London seats to make it decisive.

However, in the long term, it's very disturbing. It demonstrates the kind of opposition which can be rallied to environmental policies and how easily the Conservatives could be seduced into leading it.

We've seen this in Europe. The gilet jaunes movement was a response to cutting speed limits and raised fuel taxes in France. There was outrage in the Netherlands over reduced speed limits to comply with emissions targets.

Right wing populist parties tried to exploit that anger: The Dutch Party for Freedom, the Sweden Democrats, Alternative for Germany, and Nigel Farage himself, although not many people noticed.

The Tories will be desperate after the next election. It's very easy to imagine them being seduced into becoming cheerleaders for those angry about climate change policies. And it's very easy to imagine Labour suddenly becoming more nervous about proposing them.

All of that makes me more nervous than the next election result. It hints at a very bleak long term political dynamic. It's crucial that progressives do the thinking now on how to take people with us on climate change policy rather than alienate them.