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Luke Tryl Profile picture
@LukeTryl
Jul 21 • 9 tweets • 2 min read Twitter logo Read on Twitter
🧵Lots of analysis right to identify the cost of living crisis as driving antipathy towards ULEZ. But think it's missing another part of the equation: the link that some people make between driving and freedom and how schemes like ULEZ or LTNs are seen as restricting that freedom
I've been struck by how often when asked about driving people in focus groups will use the word "freedom" to describe what they most like about it - the ability to go where they want and when they want and not be reliant on anyone else.
The offer of better public transport doesn't appeal against this frame, because that makes you dependent on others and the whims of services timetables/available routes, you're not free to go as you choose.
And there is definitely a perception that policy makers "who all live in inner London" don't get that, they don't get that the car and the ability to drive freely is an important part of their life.
This is most true of our Disengaged Traditionalist segment - the best proxy of white van man/woman - who particularly value self-reliance. Experimental spatial analysis we're doing of the segments suggests Uxbridge has an higher prevalence of these voters. britainschoice.uk/segments/disen…
Parents in particular also express worries about being reliant on public transport, what if I need to get my child to/from a place and I just can't without a car.
Add the cost of living crisis & the feeling that this is an additional financial burden and I think you get to why it can and seems to have generated such hostility from voters (especially if you're not that passionate about Labour to start with, it's easy to be rallied against)
But as Steve points out, it's also why this is different from other green issues where voters can and do want action. If the Tories take that the lesson from Uxbridge is to go anti-green they'll soon find themselves on the wrong side of the electorate
But I do think proponents of traffic schemes beyond inner city areas need to think a lot harder about how they address the driving and freedom frame if they’re going to stop these local blow ups.

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More from @LukeTryl

Luke Tryl Profile picture
Jul 17
Politics of “too many young people going to university” a bit surprising. Our Loyal National (more Red Wall) segment among most likely to say too few/right numbers going whereas Established Liberal (Cameronite/Blue Wall) among most likely to say too many young people go to uni. Image
Suspect for loyal nationals it’s the same as why they are most likely to think inheritance tax too high - university is marker of aspiration. For Established Liberals suspect for some their view is a bit “too many of *other* people’s children going to uni” + fiscal conservatism
And disengaged battlers (the most economically insecure group) least likely to say too many are going (albeit with (as is common) a bigger chunk of don’t knows) - they are likely be the biggest beneficiaries of broadening access.
Read 4 tweets
Luke Tryl Profile picture
Jun 25
🧵In the @FT today I've written about our new @Moreincommon_ research on Brexit divides and how Leavers seem to be 'depolarising' more quickly than Remainers. ft.com/content/061b8f…
@LukeTryl But it seems from the polls that most former Remain voters, many of them now supporting ‘rejoin’ in theory, may be prepared to vote for a party which rules out ever rejoining EU or even single market?
@LukeTryl That’s one of the reasons current focus should be on rejoining EEA and single market, ie ‘soft Brexit’ compatible with the referendum result. That can be done by next govt without the need for a referendum or protracted Art49, acceptable to EU MSs, but undoes most of econ damage.
Read 4 tweets
Luke Tryl Profile picture
May 2
🧵 On politics of woke. First it's not a unified issue set - small boats & drag acts don't get the same direction/intensity of response. But for many it's a soft negative, low salience, not often engaged with. Last summer 8% thought stopping woke should be a priority for new PM. Image
Asked if it is a good or a bad thing. Most shrug, but slightly more say bad than good - and only Progressive Activists more likely to say good. Interestingly for the Loyal National segment who'll be a target for lots of anti-woke politics 'a bad thing' only reaches a third. Image
But interestingly where it is more salient is not among more socially conservative voters but among progressives, but most likely to use the term and to know people who are 'woke'. Suggests lots of woke rows about baiting the engaged rather than converting the not very online. ImageImage
Read 9 tweets
Luke Tryl Profile picture
May 2
Their 2019 voters’ views matter more to Tory election prospects than wider public. But not growing the base means losing any existing voters has a big impact. If these are the election issues having say on ECHR withdrawal 3 in 10 Tory 2019 voters opposed is bad electoral policy.
If ECHR withdrawal were the election defining issue a loss of 28% of their 2019 vote would mean the Tories drop to 31%. That won’t happen - all these issues are second order to cost of living/NHS (though boats matters a lot) - but shows these issues not a slam dunk for Tories.
And as I’ve said the risk is a worst of all worlds. More liberal Tory voters are alienated by culture stuff and think Starmer a safe enough bet (unlike Corbyn) and in places like the red wall they wonder why government is focusing on PSHE not the NHS/Cost of Living.
Read 5 tweets
Luke Tryl Profile picture
Mar 5
🧵Electorally small boats policy has to square 3 things - 1.For many voters (some particularly) stopping the boats is a key priority 2.Promising action without results will only increase voter anger 3. Very draconian measures that avoid point 2 risk alienating liberal Tory voters
On 1) it is absolutely the case voters care about small boats and there is no merit pretending otherwise. More socially conservative segments consider it a top three issue consistently. But even others (bar progressive activists) think action is needed to stop channel crossings.
What reasons do people give? Primarily fairness (why are we rewarding smugglers and traffickers, haven’t they been through safe countries, isn’t this jumping the line) but also threat perception/disorder (channel is iconic UK border, sense of lack of scrutiny and checks worries).
Read 9 tweets
Luke Tryl Profile picture
Mar 4
🧵Whoever emerges as winner from the “bin-fire” of a leadership contest will struggle to fill Sturgeon’s “big boots” was the verdict of our focus group of 2019 SNP voters, written up by @KieranPAndrews for today’s Times. Some more thoughts (1/n)

thetimes.co.uk/article/77871e…
It was clear that Sturgeon’s departure was a huge shock to this group, most were sad and all praised her communication skills as one of a kind, (though a couple worried she’d become too politically correct) “can’t see the SNP without her” was the verdict of Liz a pensioner (2/n)
There was surprisingly little enthusiasm for any of the candidates to replace her. More praised Kate Forbes honesty on social/religious issues and liked her “potential” but others worried how the views would go down with young people. No one thought her age was an issue. (3/n)
Read 10 tweets

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