The full seat totals from the MRP are
The number of people who say that they expect Labour to improve the lives of people like them has almost halved since the election. In July the public split 54%-46% in saying that Labour would improve their lives, that has now flipped to 29%-71% 
While clear majorities across the countries polled believe defending Ukraine's sovereignty is at least somewhat important the UK stands out for how relatively unpolarised our voters are on that question - even Reform voters are much more likely to say it is important than not. 
Who are Progressive Activists? They make up 8-10% of the public but have an outsized impact on political and cultural debates because of their higher engagement, they're more likely to be a graduate, have a higher income and are the youngest segment (though many are over 40) 
New Reform supporters are different in other ways, they are less online & their politics leans more moderate than those who backed the party in 2024. They're also less likely to hold positive views of other figures who have support on the online right such as Musk and Robinson 
The danger for Reform has always been that they listen to their very active online base who have very different views from the pool of potential voters that would grow them into a potential party of Government. Today’s announcements risk falling into that category.
Reform have momentum, but we don't know if they have a ceiling. With the exception of one pollster which has a tendency for higher Reform shares (including vs the GE) Reform haven't opened up a lead - that may change, but an open question if they can consistently poll above 25
The belief that what happens in Ukraine matters to the UK spans voters of different parties - a majority of Reform UK voters believe a Ukrainian 'win' of some form is important. That much lower Ukraine polarisation makes the UK reasonably unique among western democracies. 
But what is most striking is the gender gap. Reform UK now lead among men, but the Tories have a 7 point lead with women. On the left - Labour does better with men, but more women go to the Greens and the Lib Dems. 
Keir Starmer’s personal net approval rating has sunk to -39, the lowest we have ever recorded for him. However, Leader of the Opposition: Kemi Badenoch’s approval has dropped to -18, also the lowest so far, with Farage at -17. 
In the past Farage has recognised this and said of UKIP’s later embrace of Robinson “It goes against all the things I did as leader to say we will talk about immigration, we will talk about the extreme forms of Islam [and] we’ll do it as a non-racist, non-sectarian party”
This is *not* an election projection, we are likely 4 years away from any election - lots is likely to change before then (& we will revise our model) rather it gives a flavour of how sentiment has shifted since July & reveals we are now firmly in the age of multi party politics
Opposition to building clean energy infrastructure is often distorted by those who are most vocal, but even more conservative segments of the electorate (highlighted in the red box) are more likely to support wind turbines in their area. 
While the 2024 Labour Coalition splits on the importance of some issues such as immigration or housing, the cost of living and hardship are important for both those who voted Labour in 2019 and 2024 and those who switched from the Tories to Labour in 2024. 
Firstly the decision to means test the Winter Fuel Allowance seems to have become less popular over time with voters. 56% say they disapprove of the decision, compared to 23% who approve of it - though there is an age skew. 
The finger varies in size across specific questions, but looking across them Reform's vote splits into two camps, one slightly bigger populist group that shares mainstream democratic norms of most voters & a smaller radical right group who say the rioters speak for them 
Firstly, most Briton's see the events as riots rather than as protests, overall 74% say they are riots 14% protests and 4% something else. Reform voters are the most likely to describe them as protests (34%). 
