🧵There's a line of thought that Trump's victory means progressive causes are doomed in the court of public opinion. I don't think that's true, but I do think it shows more thought needs to be given to what ought to be a tautology but infact often isn't - inclusive progressivism As someone who comes 'from the right' now spending a lot of time helping civil society understand/navigate public opinion, one thing has jumped out is how hard some parts (though not all) of the 'progressive ecosystem' can make it to be 'part of the club'

🚨🧵 Failure to tackle hardship could be as damaging to Labour as the Lib Dems u-turn on tuition fees, new @Moreincommon_ research for @jrf_uk shows. Those who voted Labour in July have high expectations the Govt will tackle hardship, but many think things are going the wrong way While the 2024 Labour Coalition splits on the importance of some issues such as immigration or housing, the cost of living and hardship are important for both those who voted Labour in 2019 and 2024 and those who switched from the Tories to Labour in 2024.

🧵In my opening remarks talking about the state of democracy in the UK at #BattleFest this weekend I started by quoting Saruman to Gandalf - not because i'm a LoTR obsessive (though it's great). But because "the hour is later than you think". Here's why.... Firstly and most obviously too many people think democracy isn't working. Only 31% of Brits say democracy is working, with cynicism high across all voter (and non-voter) groups - but particularly those who backed non mainstream parties in July.

🧵"Sincere" "Energising" "Personable" "Strong" "fresh" "Will fight for what she believes in" "not afraid" - Kemi Badenoch's conference pitch was pretty unanimously the favourite of our focus group of former Tory voters who left the party for Reform, the Lib Dems & Labour in July Across the group people liked the fact that Kemi seemed more conversational and was genuinely passionate about what she believed, but also that her backstory meant she wasn't your typical Tory and she offered something new.

🧵Bit of bumpy polling for the Government: in today's Playbook PM @e_casalicchio covers our finding that Starmer's approval has sunk to it's lowest level this year at minus 16 - down 27 points from his post election high: a short honeymoon with voters. What might be driving it? Firstly the decision to means test the Winter Fuel Allowance seems to have become less popular over time with voters. 56% say they disapprove of the decision, compared to 23% who approve of it - though there is an age skew.

🧵What most jumps out from our charts on public attitudes to the riots is the "Reform finger" while supporters of other parties are broadly similar in rejecting a legitimate rationale for the riots, Reform voters are more likely than average to espouse sympathy for the motivation The finger varies in size across specific questions, but looking across them Reform's vote splits into two camps, one slightly bigger populist group that shares mainstream democratic norms of most voters & a smaller radical right group who say the rioters speak for them

🧵What do the public think about the riots and those taking part in them? A reflection of legitimate concerns Or the actions of far right thugs? I've written for @FT today on new @moreincommon_ polling and focus group research into Britain & the riots. ft.com/content/464500…
Firstly, most Briton's see the events as riots rather than as protests, overall 74% say they are riots 14% protests and 4% something else. Reform voters are the most likely to describe them as protests (34%).

🧵 We spoke to some pensioners in Leigh last week about the decision to restrict the winter fuel allowance. I expected it to be a negative reaction, but was taken aback by how negative and particularly to the means testing element. Worth sharing quotes some to show the scale... Robert said "I've been a socialist all my life. I was a staunch member of the Labour Party. I've been a trade unionist and this just feels as though it's a betrayal, a serious betrayal of all the principles that the Labour Party was founded upon"

🧵 10 highlights from our new 10,000 person @Moreincommon_ study with @UCLPolicyLab 1) Keir Starmer may only have won a third of the vote but the public overwhelmingly believe he has a mandate to change Britain, with even majorities of Tory & Reform voters agreeing. Look at this - asked in their own words why they voted for the Party they did and Labour, Reform & Lib Dem voters all say some variant of change. Among Green voters change is only second to the environment and migration and tactical considerations are second for Ref & LD voters

Fantastic preview of our @Moreincommon_ @UCLPolicyLab report on the General Election in today's @thetimes by @TomHCalver. Look just how much ideological flatter Labour's 2024 coalition is than in 2019: they gained support from right leaning voter segments but lost it on the left In 2019 the difference in Labour support between Progressive Activists (most left leaning segment) & Backbone Conservatives (most right leaning) was 58 points, in 2024 it was just 27. Explaining how Labour gained Tory heartland seats even on a small overall vote share increase.

🧵New research from @moreincommon_ & @e3g finds that while climate didn't dominate the 2024 election debate, it really did matter to voters! In fact far from voters not caring - Labour and Liberal Democrat voters ranked it as the third most important issue in deciding their vote. Even those who didn't rank climate as a top issue make a clear link between renewable energy and the most important issue this election - the cost of living. Half of voters think both that generating more energy from renewables would lower bills and make bills more stable too.

In case you missed it, some of the most interesting charts from our post-election post mortem webinar yesterday. One product of Labour's strategy is it saw them gaining most more affluent constituencies, but actually losing votes in the most deprived ones. Want to see the extent to which this truly was a change elections, incumbents almost always lost vote share *regardless* of which party they stood for.

🧵Leave aside the substance for a minute and it’s interesting to look at why Braverman’s speech fails three key tests the Tories should look for in a new leader.
1. They should speak in language intelligible to people who aren’t involved in highly political debates.

https://twitter.com/paulbranditv/status/1810419421250228711

People don’t bring up the progress flag in focus groups. People don’t know what it is & they find it baffling politicians focus on this stuff. It’s also a clear case of politicians confusing people being “eye rolly” about things with wanting politicians to dedicate time to them.

🧵Having conducted lots of focus groups with Muslim voters this year, I would be cautious about attributing the shift away from Labour to Gaza alone. I think a good comparison is Brexit acting as a trigger for Red Wall voters leaving Labour rather than sole cause. In discussions we would hear real frustration over Labour on Gaza, but very quickly it would come back to a broader point that Labour took Muslim votes for granted & that their communities had been neglected. Very similar to what you’d hear in the Red Wall post referendum.

🗣️Final Sunday focus group round up! This week from Islington, Romford, Portsmouth, Bicester, Maidenhead, Gillingham, Hull, Basildon, Tees Valley, Spelthorne with 5 quotes which together sum up what we've heard all campaign 1) "Surely he's must be trying to lose deliberately" We didn't just hear this in one group, but across different focus groups this week. For most it was a tongue in cheek comment on how bad the Tory campaign had been, but others particularly normally reliable Conservatives thought Sunak must just have had enough of being PM.

🧵Two v.different focus groups today in Tory heartlands & both showed the depths of trouble the Tories are in. Spelthorne where fair to say the outgoing MP hadn’t left a positive impression & Maidenhead where as I said earlier they were so positive about Theresa May as a local MP Both were Tory 2019 -> undecided. Starting with Maidenhead it was more generous towards Sunak and the Tories who’d “had a lot to deal with” But felt as one participant put it “after the past 14 years you could offer everyone £1 million to vote Tory & they’d still vote them out”

🧵How have our Seven Segments voting intention changed since 2019 & during the campaign? Starting with Progressive Activists, the only group where Labour now polls a lower than in 2019. Though this group will still overwhelmingly vote Labour the greens have made the most gains. When people talk about left wing discontent they're referring to this group who tended to like Jeremy Corbyn - they're also the only group who are more likely to say Labour's pledges are under not overly ambitious. But it's important not to overstate it...

🧵 Important point & worth explaining why we frame it as we do. The most important thing is that we use the language people use when talking about the issue & issues involved. In qual we have tested different framings on debates about sex based rights and gender ID.

https://twitter.com/anyabike/status/1806248858092978528

So in focus groups we have tried frames like “debates about sex and gender” or protecting “women’s rights”. The challenge with these frames is that people, unless they are highly engaged, tend not to associate them with the current debate about sex/gender ID at all.

🗣️Thoughts from speaking to voters this week in Blyth, Hartlepool, Northallerton, Whitby, Harrogate, Altrincham, Aberdeen, Wells & Aldershot.
1) Views of Sunak are changing from anger, to not taking him seriously, Sky TV came up repeatedly as epitomising him 'not getting it'. Even among more loyal Conservative voters there was a strong element of pity creeping in, and a growing number of 'decent man, not up to the job' type comments that we heard from those who should be loyal Tories.

🆕 If Labour win the next election how long do they have until people expect to be able to feel a difference. Our @Moreincommon_ @UCLPolicyLab research in tomorrow’s @Telegraph suggests for the median current Labour voter it’s a year in office. telegraph.co.uk/politics/2024/…
And what would a positive difference most look like to those currently planning on voting Labour. The answer is overwhelmingly lower NHS waiting lists meaning the DH team will have their work cut out.

💭 This week we ran focus groups of voters in Worthing,Tunbridge Wells, Milton Keynes, Loughborough, Doncaster, Thanet, Erewash. The common themes 1) Sunak is now a drag on the Tories, the theme across groups pre D-Day was frustration at him being “out of touch” & not strong. D-Day clearly turbocharged those feelings, what was striking was that even loyal Tory voters who would ordinarily defend Sunak weren’t just angry at the decision, they couldn’t begin to understand why he had made that decision.