More i think about it, more I think treating a potential break of the pledge not to raise income tax/NI/VAT as 'just another unpopular decision' is a big mistake. The (then) 2 main parties fought a whole election framed by their promises not to do it & implication for political trust of breaking it maybe deep. This isn't a sin of omission, the promise was explicit. You can argue the promise was misguided (and imo there was always room for Labour to pledge to reverse the Hunt NI cuts and still won with a hefty majority and more room for manoeuvre.) But it was the promise.

Scale of Plaid win in Caerphilly is significant, not least because of what it says about the potential for progressive tactical voting in (relatively) high turnout elections to block Reform. Voters in this race knew it was a Plaid-Reform contest and voted accordingly. So will this be the case in more seats and more importantly whereas Labour were the party that was squeezed here, in contests where they are the main contender against Reform can they, even as incumbents, get disillusioned progressives to come back and back them tactically.

With Labour's struggling in Caerphilly, we conducted a focus group to try and understand why voters were moving away from Labour in a traditionally rock solid seat. By far the biggest driver, typified by the winter fuel allowance decision was a sense the party had lost its way. To these voters the first year seemed little different to what had come before with the Tories - both in terms of policy and scandal. There was a sense of disappointment that the change people thought they were voting for last July hadn't materialised.

A focus group of women in Pontefract last week depressingly captured how the cost of living was driving the mood of miserable Britain. I’ve talked before how it saps the joy out of life, but it’s more than that having to pull your kid out of karate classes is genuinely miserable I think what people miss is the extent to which is creates anxiety everywhere, no one on moderate incomes feels safe, one bad bill can tip people used to being about fine if not comfortable into a situation where they’re using a food bank.

Given Farage's comments on marriage yesterday, worth saying that levels of support for same-sex marriage among Reform supporters are almost double those who oppose it, and not far off the national average. This isn't some 'metro elite' view - in every region of the country support clearly outweighs opposition, and with the exception of London and the West Midlands support for gay marriage is at least twice opposition in every region (and x3 in North West, South East and Scotland)

🧵If the political battle of the Autumn - and potentially beyond, is shaping up to be is Britain really broken, the challenge for those who want to argue it isn't, is how do you make that argument, without falling into the Clinton/Obama 'America is already great' mistake. Crucially the broken/not is a proxy for the system/anti-system axis. Anti-system parties (on right and left) have an interest in maximising sense things are broken and need for radical change, pro-system parties want to argue institutions can be improved.

https://x.com/LukeTryl/status/1956684586542325924

Think one of the reasons traditional parties are struggling to tackle Reform is that they’re failing to understand how their rise relates to the growing importance of the “system vs anti system axis” in our politics and the diminishing of tribal Lab/Tory rivalries. Most Brits think country is on the wrong track but differ on scale of change to fix it - Broadly speaking there are about 3/5s of the country who think we can improve existing institutions and 2/5s who think we need to burn it all down. Crucially this divide transcends left right

3 in 4 say Britain's best days are behind us. The most common description of the country is 'Broken' & 53% think the next generation will have a worse life than our parents. What do Brits think has gone wrong? How do they want to fix it? And who are the 7 new tribes of Britain? Our report 'Shattered Britain' is our most comprehensive dive into British public opinion & attitudes yet. We identify the new fault lines of public opinion + how they create 7 new segments of Britain. Highlights in thread & read it all/take the quiz here moreincommon.org.uk/our-work/resea…

While it's clear the Government has made self inflicted missteps, I do think inheriting both public finances and public services being in a bad way, has made it hard for the government to pivot onto 'what people expect from a Labour Government' and fuelled disappointment A 🧵 It sounds overly simplistic but stands out in the polling. People think the Labour Party at it's best, looks after the working class, public services, tackles poverty. They elect Labour Government's to sort those things out - esp after the Tories.

What might the starting point by for a rumoured new Corbyn led Party on the left? Our polling in today’s @NewStatesman finds it could take 10% of the vote. Reducing Labour’s share by 3 points and the Greens by 4. Extending Reform’s lead from 4 to 7. With caveat this is hypothetical, people aren’t always good judges and so very much a starting point (and doesn’t take account of pacts etc) what seems to happen is a remaining chunk of Labour’s progressive vote peels off and the party cannibalises Green-left voters.

🧵Government response to the grooming gangs inquiry is facing a lot of criticism - but I think there’s a wider issue about why the govt’s approach risks missing the public mood and why people are turning to Reform and other parties- it’s reinforcing a sense of lack of agency That lack of agency is driving political discontentment
At individual level - I don’t know what next bill hike will be/what will my mortgage be
At government level - why can’t they control border or build homes
International - what’s Trump gonna do next, escalation in Middle East

🧵This is a really key insight from Sam into the debate about where Labour ought to be thinking. I take the rather boring view that if you won with 35% of the vote you can’t afford to lose voters in any direction - a platform just pitched to one wing will lose you the other.

https://twitter.com/samcoatessky/status/1925078981805563979

Different pollsters have slightly different splits of where Labour’s vote is going, our split is 12 Ref, 8 LD, 6 GRN, 4 Tory. Others have more going left or more going right.

🆕 In advance of the White Paper on immigration we asked their public about their feelings on the numbers who come to the UK. Overall nearly two thirds would either want to see immigration slightly or significantly reduced, a number that has risen since last year. Support for reduction spans political divides, but Reform UK and Conservative 2024 voters are more likely to say there should be significant reductions (NB corrected data labels, previous swapped Con/Lab -apols!)

⚡️🧵On Friday we ran focus groups for @38degrees @mcgregormt & @UCLPolicyLab in Runcorn with those who voted Reform, Labour, Green or hadn't voted a day earlier to find out why. These are the 1st groups I can remember where just the participants could have changed the result. We want to find out for @38degrees what they key drivers of switching were. In @ShippersUnbound long read (an absolute must read in full) we set them out 1. Desire to give the govt a kick 2. Anger over winter fuel & benefits 3. Worth a dice roll on Farage thetimes.com/uk/politics/ar…

🧵Final thoughts and round up thread for today. Reform UK are the clear winners, from nowhere they have not just gained seats, but whole councils and a result around ~30% of the national vote. There is no doubt Reform's momentum is converting into real votes


We are a long way from a General Election, lots could shift between now and then, but it would be a mistake not to consider Reform a serious contender for government as things stand, winning in Doncaster, Runcorn, Kent, Staffordshire shows breadth of their support.

🧵To clearly understand how damaging winter fuel has been for the Government - this chart looks at key policies or political events so far by cut through and positivity. Winter Fuel has by far the highest cut through of any policy, and the highest negativity. Other policies in high cut through high negativity cluster - disability benefit cuts, farmers inheritance tax and prisoner releases. This is the policy combo that along with perception of slow pace of change on eg NHS/cost of living that have led to disillusionment with new govt

We are just in the car back from focus groups this weekend in Beverley, Hull,Scunthorpe & Peterborough and without doubt the disillusionment was the worst I’ve heard, in every group it was anger; despondency or misery about the state of Britain that doesn’t feel sustainable. Views of politicians went beyond healthy cynicism ranging from them not getting it to being useless to being actively corrupt. This wasn’t a partisan thing, it applied to everyone Tory, Labour, Lib Dem, Reform, being part of the political class was more telling than party.

New @Moreincommon_ MRP in @thetimes from polling of over 16,000 people finds a highly fragmented and divided electorate. It estimates Reform UK as the largest party with 180 seats, followed by Labour & the Tories on 165 seats each, but hundreds of seats on a knife edge. The full seat totals from the MRP are
➡️Reform UK 180 (+175)
🌹Labour 165 (-246)
🌳Conservative 165 (+44)
🟠Liberal Democrat 67 (-5)
🟡SNP 35 (+26)
⬜️Independent 10 (+4)
🟢Plaid Cymru 5 (+1)
🌎Green 4 (-)
Changes are with the 2024 General Election

🧵Asking people in de/struggling industrial areas of UK if the UK should have it's own tariffs, gives you the clearest example of what I'd call 'may as well roll the dice' politics. People get they may be harmful, but the status quo feels so bad any alternative is worth the risk Pointing to stock market in freefall makes little weather because 'my community has been in freefall for decades, what has the stock market ever done for me' - or looked at another way when good jobs in industry has been replaced by amazon warehouse roles, how can it get worse?

🆕 Ahead of the Spring Statement, new polling of public views on the economy finds that the Chancellor faces problems of trust, toughness and tiredness in the public mood. Over half of Brits now say we are returning to austerity or never left it, particularly the elderly. The number of people who say that they expect Labour to improve the lives of people like them has almost halved since the election. In July the public split 54%-46% in saying that Labour would improve their lives, that has now flipped to 29%-71%

🆕Polling of 🇬🇧🇩🇪🇫🇷🇵🇱🇺🇸 on Ukraine finds: Clear majorities do not think Russia will stop at Ukraine, Starmer's approach popular at home & abroad, less than 50% of Brits now call the US an ally, Europeans ready to go it alone, but only in UK do majority back sending peacekeepers🧵 While clear majorities across the countries polled believe defending Ukraine's sovereignty is at least somewhat important the UK stands out for how relatively unpolarised our voters are on that question - even Reform voters are much more likely to say it is important than not.