Luke Tryl Profile picture
Lover of finding out what people think, UK Director @Moreincommon_ 🏳️‍🌈🇺🇦
Jun 25 11 tweets 3 min read
While it's clear the Government has made self inflicted missteps, I do think inheriting both public finances and public services being in a bad way, has made it hard for the government to pivot onto 'what people expect from a Labour Government' and fuelled disappointment A 🧵 It sounds overly simplistic but stands out in the polling. People think the Labour Party at it's best, looks after the working class, public services, tackles poverty. They elect Labour Government's to sort those things out - esp after the Tories. Image
Jun 25 4 tweets 2 min read
What might the starting point by for a rumoured new Corbyn led Party on the left? Our polling in today’s @NewStatesman finds it could take 10% of the vote. Reducing Labour’s share by 3 points and the Greens by 4. Extending Reform’s lead from 4 to 7. Image With caveat this is hypothetical, people aren’t always good judges and so very much a starting point (and doesn’t take account of pacts etc) what seems to happen is a remaining chunk of Labour’s progressive vote peels off and the party cannibalises Green-left voters. Image
Jun 16 15 tweets 3 min read
🧵Government response to the grooming gangs inquiry is facing a lot of criticism - but I think there’s a wider issue about why the govt’s approach risks missing the public mood and why people are turning to Reform and other parties- it’s reinforcing a sense of lack of agency That lack of agency is driving political discontentment
At individual level - I don’t know what next bill hike will be/what will my mortgage be
At government level - why can’t they control border or build homes
International - what’s Trump gonna do next, escalation in Middle East
May 21 12 tweets 4 min read
🧵This is a really key insight from Sam into the debate about where Labour ought to be thinking. I take the rather boring view that if you won with 35% of the vote you can’t afford to lose voters in any direction - a platform just pitched to one wing will lose you the other. Different pollsters have slightly different splits of where Labour’s vote is going, our split is 12 Ref, 8 LD, 6 GRN, 4 Tory. Others have more going left or more going right. Image
May 13 10 tweets 4 min read
🆕 In advance of the White Paper on immigration we asked their public about their feelings on the numbers who come to the UK. Overall nearly two thirds would either want to see immigration slightly or significantly reduced, a number that has risen since last year. Image Support for reduction spans political divides, but Reform UK and Conservative 2024 voters are more likely to say there should be significant reductions (NB corrected data labels, previous swapped Con/Lab -apols!) Image
May 4 17 tweets 5 min read
⚡️🧵On Friday we ran focus groups for @38degrees @mcgregormt & @UCLPolicyLab in Runcorn with those who voted Reform, Labour, Green or hadn't voted a day earlier to find out why. These are the 1st groups I can remember where just the participants could have changed the result. We want to find out for @38degrees what they key drivers of switching were. In @ShippersUnbound long read (an absolute must read in full) we set them out 1. Desire to give the govt a kick 2. Anger over winter fuel & benefits 3. Worth a dice roll on Farage thetimes.com/uk/politics/ar…Image
May 2 22 tweets 7 min read
🧵Final thoughts and round up thread for today. Reform UK are the clear winners, from nowhere they have not just gained seats, but whole councils and a result around ~30% of the national vote. There is no doubt Reform's momentum is converting into real votes Image
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We are a long way from a General Election, lots could shift between now and then, but it would be a mistake not to consider Reform a serious contender for government as things stand, winning in Doncaster, Runcorn, Kent, Staffordshire shows breadth of their support.
May 2 4 tweets 2 min read
🧵To clearly understand how damaging winter fuel has been for the Government - this chart looks at key policies or political events so far by cut through and positivity. Winter Fuel has by far the highest cut through of any policy, and the highest negativity. Image Other policies in high cut through high negativity cluster - disability benefit cuts, farmers inheritance tax and prisoner releases. This is the policy combo that along with perception of slow pace of change on eg NHS/cost of living that have led to disillusionment with new govt Image
Apr 28 19 tweets 6 min read
We are just in the car back from focus groups this weekend in Beverley, Hull,Scunthorpe & Peterborough and without doubt the disillusionment was the worst I’ve heard, in every group it was anger; despondency or misery about the state of Britain that doesn’t feel sustainable. Image Views of politicians went beyond healthy cynicism ranging from them not getting it to being useless to being actively corrupt. This wasn’t a partisan thing, it applied to everyone Tory, Labour, Lib Dem, Reform, being part of the political class was more telling than party. Image
Apr 19 14 tweets 4 min read
New @Moreincommon_ MRP in @thetimes from polling of over 16,000 people finds a highly fragmented and divided electorate. It estimates Reform UK as the largest party with 180 seats, followed by Labour & the Tories on 165 seats each, but hundreds of seats on a knife edge. Image The full seat totals from the MRP are
➡️Reform UK 180 (+175)
🌹Labour 165 (-246)
🌳Conservative 165 (+44)
🟠Liberal Democrat 67 (-5)
🟡SNP 35 (+26)
⬜️Independent 10 (+4)
🟢Plaid Cymru 5 (+1)
🌎Green 4 (-)
Changes are with the 2024 General Election Image
Apr 6 9 tweets 2 min read
🧵Asking people in de/struggling industrial areas of UK if the UK should have it's own tariffs, gives you the clearest example of what I'd call 'may as well roll the dice' politics. People get they may be harmful, but the status quo feels so bad any alternative is worth the risk Pointing to stock market in freefall makes little weather because 'my community has been in freefall for decades, what has the stock market ever done for me' - or looked at another way when good jobs in industry has been replaced by amazon warehouse roles, how can it get worse?
Mar 25 17 tweets 6 min read
🆕 Ahead of the Spring Statement, new polling of public views on the economy finds that the Chancellor faces problems of trust, toughness and tiredness in the public mood. Over half of Brits now say we are returning to austerity or never left it, particularly the elderly. Image The number of people who say that they expect Labour to improve the lives of people like them has almost halved since the election. In July the public split 54%-46% in saying that Labour would improve their lives, that has now flipped to 29%-71% Image
Mar 10 15 tweets 6 min read
🆕Polling of 🇬🇧🇩🇪🇫🇷🇵🇱🇺🇸 on Ukraine finds: Clear majorities do not think Russia will stop at Ukraine, Starmer's approach popular at home & abroad, less than 50% of Brits now call the US an ally, Europeans ready to go it alone, but only in UK do majority back sending peacekeepers🧵 Image While clear majorities across the countries polled believe defending Ukraine's sovereignty is at least somewhat important the UK stands out for how relatively unpolarised our voters are on that question - even Reform voters are much more likely to say it is important than not. Image
Feb 19 24 tweets 9 min read
Today @Moreincommon_ releases a deep dive into Progressive Activists, the most liberal/left leaning segment of the public. It looks at who this highly engaged group are, what they believe but also why their approach maybe leading to backlash against progressive causes. Image Who are Progressive Activists? They make up 8-10% of the public but have an outsized impact on political and cultural debates because of their higher engagement, they're more likely to be a graduate, have a higher income and are the youngest segment (though many are over 40) Image
Feb 15 7 tweets 2 min read
Interesting shift in Reform support, while their voter base remains more male those who have shifted to support Reform since the election are more evenly split between men and women compared to those who backed the party in 2024. Image New Reform supporters are different in other ways, they are less online & their politics leans more moderate than those who backed the party in 2024. They're also less likely to hold positive views of other figures who have support on the online right such as Musk and Robinson Image
Feb 12 8 tweets 3 min read
Think Reform’s net-zero announcements may well be their first big mistake since their rise in the polls. There would definitely be scope to criticise specific climate measures, but trying to actively reverse shift to renewables lands well on wrong side of British public opinion. Image The danger for Reform has always been that they listen to their very active online base who have very different views from the pool of potential voters that would grow them into a potential party of Government. Today’s announcements risk falling into that category.
Feb 3 12 tweets 3 min read
🧵Trying to predict the next General Election is a fools game - in the last Parliament the Tories ranged as high as 55% as low as 18%, with the electorate so volatile and the parties so split it's not impossible to imagine any of Starmer, Badenoch or Farage as PM come 2029. Image Reform have momentum, but we don't know if they have a ceiling. With the exception of one pollster which has a tendency for higher Reform shares (including vs the GE) Reform haven't opened up a lead - that may change, but an open question if they can consistently poll above 25
Jan 26 5 tweets 2 min read
Mentioned in today's @TheSun - as Trump puts pressure on Russia to end the war in Ukraine, our polling finds that Brits continue to believe that it matters to the UK that Ukraine defeats Russia. 7 in 10 think it is important only 12% unimportant. Image The belief that what happens in Ukraine matters to the UK spans voters of different parties - a majority of Reform UK voters believe a Ukrainian 'win' of some form is important. That much lower Ukraine polarisation makes the UK reasonably unique among western democracies. Image
Jan 22 5 tweets 2 min read
Three way tie again in our latest voting intention with less than 1 point separating Lab/Con/Ref. Reform UK reach a new high.

🌳CON 25% (nc)
➡️ REF UK 25% (+1)
🌹LAB 24% (nc)
🔶 LIB DEM 12% ( nc)
🌍 GREEN 7% (-1)
🟡 SNP 3% (nc)

N = 2,016 Dates: 17 - 20 Jan, Change w 13 Jan Image But what is most striking is the gender gap. Reform UK now lead among men, but the Tories have a 7 point lead with women. On the left - Labour does better with men, but more women go to the Greens and the Lib Dems. Image
Jan 15 6 tweets 3 min read
Our latest @Moreincommon_ voting intention in today's Playbook finds a virtual 3 way tie with 1 point separating the Tories, Reform and Labour.
🌳 Con 25% (-1)
🌹 Lab 24% (-2)
➡️ Ref UK 24% (+2)
🔶 Lib Dem 12% (-)
🌍 Green 8% (+1)
🟡 SNP 3% (-)
N= 2102, 10-13/1 Change w 8/1 Image Keir Starmer’s personal net approval rating has sunk to -39, the lowest we have ever recorded for him. However, Leader of the Opposition: Kemi Badenoch’s approval has dropped to -18, also the lowest so far, with Farage at -17. Image
Jan 2 6 tweets 2 min read
🧵Musk & Tommy Robinson sum up the fundamental challenge Reform may have moving from a 15% party to a 30% one. In August just 11% of Brits said they had a positive view of Tommy Robinson. Embracing his cause seems likely to be an anathema to electoral success Image In the past Farage has recognised this and said of UKIP’s later embrace of Robinson “It goes against all the things I did as leader to say we will talk about immigration, we will talk about the extreme forms of Islam [and] we’ll do it as a non-racist, non-sectarian party”