Reform have momentum, but we don't know if they have a ceiling. With the exception of one pollster which has a tendency for higher Reform shares (including vs the GE) Reform haven't opened up a lead - that may change, but an open question if they can consistently poll above 25
The belief that what happens in Ukraine matters to the UK spans voters of different parties - a majority of Reform UK voters believe a Ukrainian 'win' of some form is important. That much lower Ukraine polarisation makes the UK reasonably unique among western democracies. 
Keir Starmer’s personal net approval rating has sunk to -39, the lowest we have ever recorded for him. However, Leader of the Opposition: Kemi Badenoch’s approval has dropped to -18, also the lowest so far, with Farage at -17. 
In the past Farage has recognised this and said of UKIP’s later embrace of Robinson “It goes against all the things I did as leader to say we will talk about immigration, we will talk about the extreme forms of Islam [and] we’ll do it as a non-racist, non-sectarian party”
This is *not* an election projection, we are likely 4 years away from any election - lots is likely to change before then (& we will revise our model) rather it gives a flavour of how sentiment has shifted since July & reveals we are now firmly in the age of multi party politics
Opposition to building clean energy infrastructure is often distorted by those who are most vocal, but even more conservative segments of the electorate (highlighted in the red box) are more likely to support wind turbines in their area. 
While the 2024 Labour Coalition splits on the importance of some issues such as immigration or housing, the cost of living and hardship are important for both those who voted Labour in 2019 and 2024 and those who switched from the Tories to Labour in 2024. 
Firstly the decision to means test the Winter Fuel Allowance seems to have become less popular over time with voters. 56% say they disapprove of the decision, compared to 23% who approve of it - though there is an age skew. 
The finger varies in size across specific questions, but looking across them Reform's vote splits into two camps, one slightly bigger populist group that shares mainstream democratic norms of most voters & a smaller radical right group who say the rioters speak for them 
Firstly, most Briton's see the events as riots rather than as protests, overall 74% say they are riots 14% protests and 4% something else. Reform voters are the most likely to describe them as protests (34%). 
Look at this - asked in their own words why they voted for the Party they did and Labour, Reform & Lib Dem voters all say some variant of change. Among Green voters change is only second to the environment and migration and tactical considerations are second for Ref & LD voters 
In 2019 the difference in Labour support between Progressive Activists (most left leaning segment) & Backbone Conservatives (most right leaning) was 58 points, in 2024 it was just 27. Explaining how Labour gained Tory heartland seats even on a small overall vote share increase. 
Even those who didn't rank climate as a top issue make a clear link between renewable energy and the most important issue this election - the cost of living. Half of voters think both that generating more energy from renewables would lower bills and make bills more stable too. 
Want to see the extent to which this truly was a change elections, incumbents almost always lost vote share *regardless* of which party they stood for. 
