Thread by @Mylovanov

Putin's tirade at the security council laid bare his delusions on Ukraine, going on a bizarre rant about Poland's ingratitude to Stalin & wanting to annex Ukraine. His projections & delusions are becoming more severe. This is what he said & why it's disconnected from reality. 1/

Putin still doesn't grasp Ukrainians themselves resist annexation, not just Zelensky. In an irrational belief, he thinks he can convince Ukrainians his rule is better, while murdering tens of thousands. His speech was really the ranting of a lunatic. 2/

He started by claiming that Ukrainian counteroffensive has failed, NATO arsenals are depleted, and that "the whole world sees that the praised Western equipment is on fire."

After that, he claimed that Ukraine suffers huge losses, and there is no one left to mobilize. 3/

Finally, he concluded that Ukrainians increasingly question whether it is worth dying to defend Ukraine. Quote: "sobering is gradually coming"

Each of these statements is a projection of what is happening in Russia, except for mobilization resource. 4/

Yes, some NATO and Ukrainian equipment is lost, in fact, a lot. But the war is intense and Russia has lost much more. Check any respectable OSINT source.

It is true that NATO is constrained in its arsenal, because it had not planned for this war, while Russia did.5/

But it is also true that sanctions are crippling the Russian defense sector and their arsenal is also depleted. Furthermore, Russian economy is the size of Italiy's. So, NATO countries collectively have economy the order of magnitude large than that of Russia. 6/

A moderate increase in defense spending will ensure sufficient production in NATO, while Russia will have to mobilize all of its economy. In fact, it already does, for example, by requiring regular business companies to pay a share of cost of military costs. 7/

Both Ukrainians and Russians have losses. They are indeed huge. But Russian losses are much bigger. The credible data is missing, but what is know from the Russian Bakhmut theater is that they indeed lost tens of thousands there. 8/

Ukraine is a smaller country than Russia. Furthermore, Ukraine values human life, while Russia doesn't. So, it is true that Ukraine mobilization potential is smaller. But it is far from depleted. Moreover, many of the recently trained brigades have not yet entered the action. 9/

Putin then turned to Europe and started babbling about Poland. This is more or less a direct quote: "Poland has seized and annexed other people's lands before - some historical Russian provinces, parts of Lithuania, Austria-Hungary and Czechoslovakia.

This aggressive policy ended in 1939 when Poland was thrown by the Western Allies to be eaten by the German war machine and actually lost its independence, which was restored to a great extent by the Soviet Union. Thanks to Stalin, Poland gained considerable German land.

The western territories of present-day Poland are Stalin's gift to the Poles. Have our friends in Warsaw forgotten this? We will remind them."

So, Putin accuses Poland of being aggressive and threatens it. Who is an aggressor here? And what's the point anyway?

Is Putin trying to scare Poland in not supporting Ukraine? It is at the very least naive and ineffective.

Putin is deteriorating. His rhetoric has moved from detached from reality to that of a raging lunatic. To those surrounding him, it is a scare and a sign of weakness.