Thread by @cremieuxrecueil

It's well-known that immigrants to the U.S. today tend to vote Democratic and hold more left-wing beliefs than natives.

This was also true in the past, when the immigrants were almost entirely European.

Part of it may have had to do with Prohibition, which German immigrants hated. Part of it may have had to do with the backlash to immigration laws which, again, Germans hated

Example: This chart shows the share of army volunteers in areas with and without German integration laws

The effect of historical European immigration on how left-wing a county is, Democratic affiliation, opposition to spending cuts, support for welfare, min. wages, and tax-financing deficits, was moderated by exposure to social welfare reforms.

More exposure, bigger effect.

The estimates trended the same way for intermarriage rates between locals and migrants, but those estimates weren't as consistently significant.

And there was also evidence for moderation of migrant's impacts by the degree of residential integration of said migrants. More residential integration, less integration of the migrant's values.

The moderation by exposure to social welfare reforms is striking, but it seems to be due to selection: controlling for migrant's economic characteristics, the effect is considerably attenuated.

Perhaps more elite immigrants were better able to promote welfare reform.

The number of robustness tests in this paper is really something. You can search for explanations all day long, but the findings just seem robust: European immigrants had spillover effects on the politics of their neighbors, pushing U.S. politics leftward.

Sources: nber.org/papers/w27238

academic.oup.com/restud/article…

The tweet saying immigration laws should say integration laws*