Thread by @randymot4

#NotOurWar ? We hear that on social media and maybe from a few colleagues, but do they ever offer any explanation? Nope! They just assume that if they do not understand it, then there must be no explanation. This is wrong at many levels.

The map of Europe with Russia occupying Ukraine might start to explain some things. Ukr is 2nd largest country in Europe w/ big resources. But it is also a way to put pressure of a whole new set of negihbors./2

Some of these neighbors are not in NATO. Without that deterrent, their future would be grim. Some time in the not distant future they would be absorbed by Russia. Kazaakhstan, Georgia, Moldova, etc./3

NATO neighbors would also face a new challenge. Just as Russia is threatening to invade Poland now from Belarus, it could threaten a broad border with NATO further south. Could NATO prevent more invasions?/4

In the world where the US bugs out of Ukraine, denying them victory and causing the collapse of the NATO consensus to support them, could the US or its allies (now shaken) provide deterrence from a further Russian attack?/5

If so, the answer would have to be a massive US reinforcement of the border. Without boots on the ground, neither Russia nor allies would likely believe the US would seriously commit to fight Russia over any of these countries, having abandoned Ukraine./6

The US bugged out when Ukraine had at least parity with Russia in the war, fielding one of the largets armies in Europe. Why would the US fill in the deficit for a country with less means, like Romania? Bulgaria?
Estonia?/7

What cost would the US incur by dramatically increasing our military presence in Europe? Unknown, but pretty sure it would be more than the 5% of the DOD budget that UKR aid is now. And it would be forever./8

Failing such a US move, which would be likely if we already abandoned Ukraine, Europe would tack sharply back to accomodation with Russia. Having 10% of our entire GDP involved in trade and investment with Europe, new economic risks would be inevitable./9
carnegieeurope.eu/strategiceurop…

The almost laughable move to create a "BRICS' economic alliance that would attack the US dollar, would obviously get serious real fast. Other nations seeing US protection as worthless, might feel compelled to make deals to join BRICS./10
ft.com/content/3e05b4…

So leaving Ukraine to be chewed up by Russia would have serious implications, many of which we cannot even imagine at this point. All NATO allies see this threat and have responded./11

Our allies are increasing their defense spending and preparing to stand as a wall against further Russian aggression. Would they do so if they saw the US run away?euronews.com/2023/04/24/eur…

Can the US avoid this dire future? At what cost? It is 5-6% of the DOD budget and declining each year over the next six years. Mostly spent in the US. We cannot afford not to do this.

The consequences in our effort to deter Communist China over Taiwan and in the South China Sea would also be acutely weakened if the US fails to stand by Ukraine. We have an ally at parity with Russia with NATO united helping, what would we do without NATO allies help and in the… https://t.co/tEt38OHtDBtwitter.com/i/web/status/1…