Recently, I mentioned the issue of Russian colonists replacing Ukrainians, who either fell victim to violence, was forcibly displaced, or had to flee. Today, I will provide several examples of tactics used by Russians to reshape the population on occupied territories.
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2/ According to the "Interagency Coordination Headquarters for Humanitarian Response," around 40,000 people remain in camps, including over 10,000 children. Russia claims to provide "social security" payments to over 1.4 million people, indicating a larger number of displaced
3/
-Between May and June, around 600 individuals were deported from Dokuchaevsk, Starobilsk, and Debaltseve to Rostov Oblast.
- In Zaporizhia Oblast, teachers who refused to comply with new Russian educational programs faced interrogations, intimidations, and deportation.
4/ - Some maternity hospitals in occupied areas have been converted into military facilities, while equipment for maternal purposes was moved to Russia.
- Administrative positions continue to be filled by appointed individuals from russia, displacing Ukrainians from these roles
5/
Russia also pursues the assimilation and indoctrination of children into Russian ideology, erasing Ukrainian identity. They organize "educational trips" to health resort or "sport" camps. Photos from the mentioned events will be included as evidential reference:
6/
The educational and field training camp "V Army" at the training center of the Military Academy of NBC Defense hosted over 80 schoolchildren, including students from Luhansk Oblast.
7/
More than 100 kids from Kalanchak, Kherson Oblast, were sent to the Lesnaya Skazka camp in Saratov for an entertainment and "cultural program."
8/ Approximately 280 children from the Antratsyt region were moved to the "Cossack Cadet Corps" in Kalmykia, with plans to relocate around 500 Ukrainian children by the end of the summer.
9/ In occupied Kherson region, Russian forces conducted shooting training with members of "Youtharmy" on July 18th.
10/ According to statistics provided by occupational authorities, the population of Sevastopol (Russian Black Sea Fleet base) has increased by nearly 40% between 2014 and 2021, suggesting significant resettlement of Russians into Crimea.
11/ There are multiple reports indicating that russia is actively repopulating Mariupol. This is being done by providing housing to teachers, administrative workers, and other occupational staff through settlement into newly built apartments.
12/ This reflects a deliberate strategy employed since the times of the Russian Empire to replace locals with russians. The ultimate goal is to establish a narrative that portrays the region as historically russian, allowing subsequent generations to claim it as their birthright.
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Frontelligence Insight Special Report: AWOL Trends and Casualty Ratios in Russia and Ukraine
In assessing overall manpower casualty ratios, we analyzed Russian AWOL figures alongside Ukrainian estimates, factoring in KIA, MIA, and recruitment rates to assess the war’s prospects
2/ Thanks to @InformNapalm, a Ukrainian OSINT community, we analyzed a screenshot of a Russian presentation slide detailing desertion numbers. The percentage and corresponding figures allowed us to calculate the total number of AWOL cases across all Russian military districts.
3/ As shown in the translated graph, the Southern MD has the highest number of desertion cases. This is unsurprising, as it includes the former 1st and 2nd Army Corps (now the 51st and 3rd CAAs), which are largely composed of forcibly mobilized residents from occupied territories
One of the most critical yet unresolved questions of this war is the true impact of drone attacks inside Russia. Our team has been working with media organizations and volunteers to tackle this. But finding the answer isn’t easy, and we need your support. Here’s how you can help:
2/ The simplest and most effective way to support our investigation is through donations. This helps cover essential expenses like satellite imagery, expert analysis, and time. You can donate via BuyMeaCoffee:
3/ We’re also looking for volunteers to assess the damage, particularly those with expertise in damage surveys, industrial building damage assessments, and the oil and gas industry: especially in evaluating potential refinery damage. Feel free to contact us at
frontel@proton.me
As we move into the second month of the year, Frontelligence Insight has prepared an early assessment report covering recent developments on the frontlines and within both Ukrainian and Russian military forces. Below are some key highlights from the report. 1/ 🧵Thread:
2/ The frontline dynamics for Ukraine remain challenging, with setbacks in Pokrovsk, Chasiv Yar, Kupyansk, and Toretsk. While leadership is working to address organizational and recruitment issues, it will take time for these changes to be implemented and impact the battlefield.
3/ Russian forces are facing high losses, with tens of thousands of AWOL cases and a significant depletion of armored vehicles, which are being replaced by civilian transport. Nevertheless, they continue advancing in areas where Ukrainian defenses are stretched with few people
In collaboration with @casusbellii, our team Frontelligence Insight investigated a large Russian convoy: over 100 vehicles, including tanks, trucks, IFVs, artillery, and other equipment, that rolled into Bamako, Mali. We've assessed its composition and origins. 🧵Thread:
2/ On January 17, 2025, local media Cap Mali+, streamed a more than 30-minute video of a column of vehicles passing through unnamed Malian streets. The convoy included over 100 vehicles, with roughly half consisting of trucks and the other half made up of combat vehicles
3/ The location of the footage was geolocated to the southwestern outskirts of Bamako, near coordinates 12.545009, -8.120543. The convoy was moving toward the center of the Malian capital.
You may not have heard of tantalum, but there’s a good chance it’s in the phone or computer you're using to read this. It’s also a key part in Russia’s military electronics, and its shortage, driven by sanctions, is causing disruptions. Frontelligence Insight's latest assessment:
2/ Russia relies on tantalum to produce tantalum powders for capacitors used in control, navigation, and signal processing systems. While Russia has tantalum deposits, they are limited, and it lacks advanced processing facilities to process a raw tantalum
3/ Historically, tantalum processing has been conducted at the Ulba Metallurgical Plant in Kazakhstan, a facility built during the Soviet era. When sanctions were implemented, Kazakhstan joined them, cutting off Russia’s primary supply of processed tantalum.
1/ Why is Ukraine losing ground? There are many explanations, ranging from a lack of aid to a lack of political will to win. The reality, however, is far more complex. This thread offers a brief excerpt from my recent analysis, with the full link provided at the end.
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2/ Many struggles that the Ukrainian military faces stem from before 2022 and have scaled significantly by 2025. A mobilized force, where teachers, farmers, and IT workers replaced the professional core, turned what began as 'growing pains' into systemic flaws
3/ A damning report on Ukraine’s 155th Anne of Kyiv Brigade grotesquely exposed systematic issues. Despite training in France and sufficient funding and equipment, the unit faced high AWOL rates and fragmentation across frontline units. The issues that lead to it are systematic