Thread by @jaycurrie

ELECTION WATCH The odds are shortening on Trudeau calling a Fall election. Cabinet shuffle tomorrow, Ministers announcing they will not be running, Trudeau storming through the Liberal backyards of the nation. 1/

I expect Trudeau will use his usual tactic of running against something. Last time it was the unvaccinated. This time my bet is that he'll run against "Alberta and Big Oil", "American Tech Giants" and the unCanadian protestors showing up to heckle him. 2/

The Liberal war room will run what amounts to a 150 seat campaign. Metro Toronto, Ilse de Montreal, very select Lower Mainland seats. It won't be running to gain a majority, rather the focus will be on maximizing the efficiency of its vote. 3/

There will be a serious attempt to "monster" @PierrePoilievre as the heir to Harper and as Trucker and Trump adjacent. That won't come directly from Lib-HQ, rather it will emerge from the various "activist" communities the Libs have cultivated. 4/

@PierrePoilievre It would not surprise me one bit to see Max in the debates. Like it or not, in a couple of dozen Ontario seats, the #PPC vote could help elect Liberals. @CPC_HQ is too arrogant to cut a seat deal, but the Libs are smart enough to use Max. 5/

@PierrePoilievre @CPC_HQ I thought the last election was an abject disgrace with Trudeau dividing Canadians as never before, but I expect the coming campaign will be even more toxic. Erin O'Toole never really got off the ground. 6/

@PierrePoilievre @CPC_HQ The whole CPC campaign basically said, "We'll do what the Liberals are doing, but better." O'Toole had no serious fighting instinct and that approach crashed. 7/

@PierrePoilievre @CPC_HQ Unless the CPC has a conversion experience, I suspect its platform will remain, "What the Liberals are doing, but better." But @PierrePoilievre is an altogether tougher proposition. Which, I suspect, the Liberal war room is counting on. 8/

@PierrePoilievre @CPC_HQ Legacy media will be reporting a horserace. Policy differences are well beyond the faltering grasp of what is left of legacy media. So the reporting will focus on personality. Or, more precisely, on what a nasty, belligerent guy Poilievre is. 9/

@PierrePoilievre @CPC_HQ Polls will discover that @PierrePoilievre trails Trudeau amongst suburban women. Reporters will buttonhole said women until they find one who says, "I don't like him because he's mean and rude. Not very Canadian." 10/

@PierrePoilievre @CPC_HQ Now the horserace has a narrative, "Can @PierrePoilievre close the all important "niceness" gap?" Yes, that is complete nonsense; but you can imagine Coyne, Hebert and Rosie pondering it day after day. 11/

@PierrePoilievre @CPC_HQ Sadly, because @CPC_HQ is unwilling to oppose the Libs on Mass Immigration, the #ClimateScam, the trans-agenda or endless money to Ukraine, Poilievre will be reduced to complaining about the price of milk in the nicest possible way. 12/

@PierrePoilievre @CPC_HQ You don't win elections by mimicking the platform of your opponent as softly and gently as possible, you win them by attacking the record, the scandals, the incompetence of your opponent. Which will make you look mean. 13/

@PierrePoilievre @CPC_HQ If the Lib war room can make this about mean Pierre, Trudeau will skate to another minority. The CPC war room needs to flip the script. Hard with legacy media in the tank for their paymasters in the Liberal government. 14/

@PierrePoilievre @CPC_HQ Personally, I will be helping out the #PPC candidate in Victoria. Eventually, Canadians are going to get fed up with the consensus politics of the mainstream parties. Probably not this election, but a hung Parliament means the next election is not far off. 15/15