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STUDENT LOAN PAYMENT CRISIS: I'm a private equity data scientist. I have access to some cool real time credit card data. Student loan payments are coming back and will impact industries/companies. Which ones? Let's dive into some credit card data and find out 🧵🧵🧵
First: what's the present state?In April of 2020, the number of student loan payers in the data dropped by 40%(!!!). By june of 2023, 70% of those with student loans weren't making payments. The average payment pre april 2020 was $300/mo, so we can assume consumers will pay that.
So, we can assume that 30 million people will randomly have $300 less to work with starting in september. WOOF! In fact, the data showed that non payers outspent their peers by almost 3% over the next 2 years. People get aggressive with that loan money!
Where did they spend that money? General Electronics, Air travel, pet supplies, and home furnishings dominate the dataset. In fact, there are a few companies in the dataset that seem the most at risk: Peloton, old navy, market district, shein, nintendo and target.
Other honorable mentions in our non payer category: Airbnb, Chipotle, hello fresh, pizza hut, random airlines, and sephora. So, if all that money isn't going to those companies anymore, what will happen to the economy? if we assume users were spending that money, that's 100bn
being sucked out of the consumer goods economy. What will happen when 100bn goes missing from the economy? IDK! But i do know that if you're peloton or hello fresh, you better get defensive ;) Happy to share the data provider in my dms because i'm not sure they want a mention.
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