Thread by @emilkastehelmi

A new phase in Ukraine's counteroffensive seems to be underway in the south and east, while Russia is attacking in the north.

In this thread I will take a look at the key events & directions, and explain what the current situation means in the big picture. 1/

Ukrainians are counterattacking in the same directions as before. The most activity is observed near Robotyne and Staromaiorske. A strong push is also happening in the Bakhmut area. At the same time Russia is attacking in multiple directions on the Luhansk-Kharkiv front. 2/

Ukraine has had some success in the south. The AFU is advancing east of Robotyne and in the northern parts of Staromaiorske. According to Russians, AFU has also entered Urozhaine.

While this is good news, we’re still talking about rather limited gains in the big picture. 3/

The situation south of Bakhmut is positive for the Ukrainians. Ukrainians have probably entered Klischiivka, but Russians are still likely holding the northern part of the village. It’s a bit unclear where the furthest line of advance actually is in the area. 4/

Russia is also trying to advance in the Luhansk-Kharkiv front. In the Kreminna sector, Russia has made some gains in the forest areas. The battle of the Serebrianka forestry has been ongoing since last fall, and the Ukrainians are still mostly holding their ground in the area. 5/

East of Svatove, the Russians have likely crossed the Zherebets river. The situation in a couple of villages is unclear, there is conflicting information.

No proof of larger Russian advance in this area has surfaced, despite various claims by pro-Russian channels. 6/

Even though Russia has been able to make some small advances, they seem to be lacking the ability to achieve a proper breakthrough. There is no indication that the Russians have suddenly managed to muster such capabilities. This is a persistent problem for them. 7/

Russia can of course generate a local manpower and artillery superiority, but it still doesn’t mean they can achieve anything of strategic nature in the battlefield. In most areas of the Luhansk-Kharkiv front, I find it difficult to see even remotely realistic strategic goals. 8/

Russian actions in the north of course tie Ukrainian units there, and Ukraine must spend valuable resources to repel the attacks. However, attacking isn’t casualty-free for the Russians either, and It is questionable whether this is a sensible way to use Russian reserves. 9/

Ukrainians are also struggling to make progress. There are some signs of success, but the main hindrances still seem relevant. Russians are prepared, there are extensive fortifications and no immediate lack of manpower seems to threaten their defensive operations. 10/

Ukraine has recently, among other things, concentrated heavily on striking Russian artillery, MRLS and other rear targets. This can lead to positive developments for AFU in the coming weeks, if the defender starts to rapidly lose capabilities they can't properly replace. 11/

Despite some positive signals, Ukraine is still mostly stuck in the first line of Russian defence, even after almost two months of fighting. However, the situation is evolving, so it’s too early to draw final conclusions. Especially the spearhead in Robotyne may be potential. 12/

Both sides are racing to make a breakthrough which would force the other to shift their focus. If Ukraine can't stop the Russians with its local forces and has to divert more of its fresh, western-equipped brigades to north, it will naturally weaken their efforts elsewhere. 13/

The same threat also applies to Russia - if it stubbornly concentrates its actions to the north while the southern flank is getting depleted of reserves and equipment, the Ukrainians can finally achieve significant success and actually exploit the situation for their benefit. 14/

At the moment I might be posting a bit less frequently as I’m in Lapland working with military history documentaries and collecting material for an upcoming book.

Still, me and our team at @Black_BirdGroup keep updating and mapping the situation. 15/15

scribblemaps.com/maps/view/The-…