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Paul Maidowski Profile picture
@_ppmv
Jul 27 • 22 tweets • 11 min read Twitter logo Read on Twitter
Good grief. We knew decades ago that human coronaviruses (here HCoV-OC43) are naturally neuroinvasive and neurotropic and associated with diseases like Alzheimer's.

It wasn't necessary to infect billions of unwilling patients to find out, reading this paper would have sufficed. https://t.co/OrNN8CQ2J6


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The late HCoV expert Dr. Pierre Talbot, 2016. 🙏 https://t.co/cSohn1WqJ4medecinesciences.org/en/articles/me…
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@BlackTomThePyr8 Those are good studies, thanks for sharing Tom! I usually link the originals so people can read them more easily; didn't know all of these. The problem with the link you shared is that no state is testing anymore, here Germany (could be criminal negligence, would be worth suing).
@BlackTomThePyr8 Here Germany, as I check the @ECDC_EU data weekly. This week they somehow managed to lose (?) even the miserable 16 sequenced specimens. That level of amateurism in public policy would be unacceptable in a minor Pacific Island State, never mind G7 country. https://t.co/EwXwbBhNbL…id19-country-overviews.ecdc.europa.eu/variants_of_co…
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Member states forced @WHO to end the COVID-19 PHEIC in May, giving rise to the tortured language of "the emergency but not pandemic is over", which frankly makes no sense whatsoever. Spare a thought for @mvankerkhove, who tries to keep those states along.
@WHO @mvankerkhove Have we considered requiring WHO member states' political leaders to have at least an infant's sense of object permanence? 🤣 - Thanks for good humor in the face of stubborn reality denial everyone,
@BlackTomThePyr8 This study estimates some 19 million lives saved; one can criticize it on scientific grounds, but order of magnitude is ok. It's the virus, not primarily the vaccine, which should be blindingly obvious to anyone who reads science or even just my timeline. thelancet.com/journals/lanin…
@WHO @mvankerkhove Pause for a coffee not too close to bedtime to read this with extra spicy attention. Note medications contraindicated in HIV associated neurocognitive decline (HAND) and, possibly, the SARS equivalent. Never call it 'brain fog'. thx https://t.co/Rcemb3xjqy https://t.co/f0pxAKoomlmemory.ucsf.edu/sites/memory.u…



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@WHO @mvankerkhove After global anti-science anti-public health campaigns, many blame 'the' anti-SARS-CoV-2 vaccine for damage caused by the virus. Stunningly effective psyops, my respect to the bad actors, even as a climate scholar, where we saw the same happen for decades.
@WHO @mvankerkhove It's vital to understand these dynamics. If you can't explain them to 5 year olds (#ELI5), read deeper. The virus continually mutates within-host through genetic recombination with itself &/or prior variants in co-infection (this proves viral persistence).
@WHO @mvankerkhove Some debate SARS-CoV-2 origins. Virologists who fear their luscious funding for badly overseen gain of function (GOF) research of concern (GOFROC) evaporates, less so. If that's you, please understand evolution. The origin of Omicron is far more important.
@WHO @mvankerkhove Do we have to 'Live with Covid,' as everyone says because everyone says it? - Would not recommend. All other RNA viruses + monkeypox virus (#Mpox) that replicate in the cytoplasm could acquire SARS-CoV-2's fancy immune evasion skills.

You don't want that.
@WHO @mvankerkhove Here my humble IR supervillain assessment of the viral weather forecast for the coming decades. The dynamics are such that we're currently crashing into the tree, with no airbag deployed yet (would recommend N95 w/eye protection which can just be glasses).
New rule: As it happens, I need to limit time spent researching and doing scicomm - all really public health authorities, MDs or political leaders' jobs -, at least enough to afford a living. If you want to support that work, ie help extend time budgets: 😌patreon.com/paulmaidowski
PS: Essential study to understand what happens in SARS-CoV-2 reinfection. Read to gain minimum fluency in the relevant concepts. Simple prediction by me as policy scholar: states will act only once populations (citizens, voters, parents, legal system!) organize and demand change.

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Free access: https://t.co/YSYKlBorEQ



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I don't like sharing my Patreon link because it's so out of proportion with the real-world risk and billions (!) of lives affected. (Death isn't the only outcome) Just know that the financial stakes are easily in the $ trillions. https://t.co/vM9zDEqoYXpatreon.com/paulmaidowski
Just saw the good question by @NoHealthNoFun here, on how the legal system will end the pandemic. I’m an optimist despite the challenges outlined above - otherwise I couldn’t focus for years on this and climate -, but there’s also a solid theory of change. It involves insurances.
@NoHealthNoFun Scholars, NGOs or strategists call it theory of political change (ToPC). It tends to use instruments below the threshold of infecting billions of unwilling patients repeatedly with a systemic vascular neuroinvasive virus. - I wonder who signed off on that.
@NoHealthNoFun If this seems like a no brainer (no pun intended), you’re right. ☺️

I don’t approve of the ‘viral decarbonization’ theory of change that (b) ‘Living with SARS’ represents, we could simply go for (a) ‘Living without SARS’ or ‘ZeroCovid’ any time. It’s more an ethics than IQ test.
@NoHealthNoFun Chances are, your local MD or even research scientist (who doesn't follow us;) now thinks the pandemic 'over.' See above for how member states forced @WHO to end the PHEIC. They simply stopped testing. There is no epidemiology without epidemiological data.
@NoHealthNoFun @WHO Most importantly, chances are @WHO knows how to end the pandemic. That's where IR scholars or political scientists come in, because it's ultimately a policy problem. Without political mandate, public health cannot do its job. That takes (political) power. https://t.co/lU7mgjG8Ei
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More from @_ppmv

Paul Maidowski Profile picture
Jul 21
Let’s summarize. Almost everyone tacitly agreed with a policy to “live with” a coronavirus (SARS) known to harm your brain and immune system. That’s the most extraordinary bs I heard in my three decades on this planet, and I focus on climate, so I hear extraordinary bs every day. Image
We are as deep into SARS-CoV-2 in 2023 as this SARS-CoV-1 study in 2005. (~1.5 years from the Omicron waves that infected most people worldwide)

I share this because you expect the same results. Few will even notice, but their complex attention will fade.
Please appreciate most MDs don't know these dynamics. Their role in immune homeostasis and viral infection was often discovered after their studies or before new science made it into textbooks.

Where we fail is not within but in translation across fields. https://t.co/ZGCybHyeQ2
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Read 26 tweets
Paul Maidowski Profile picture
Jul 19
No, SARS is no extinction level event. Humans lived with rampant bovine coronaviruses outbreaks previously thanks to unpasteurized milk. They just had low life expectancy and many children.

The positive feedbacks on other pathogens and risks are the problem.
Increase the incidence of 9,000 Covid deaths per day by 50% to 200%, to 13,700 to 27,400 excess deaths per day. Most SARS deaths occurred 10-15 years after infection, so that’s ‘moderate’. You get 5 to 10 million excess deaths per year. Still only 1 billion excess deaths in 2123.
SARS is not irrelevant, in fact impressive. By any comparison these is incredible (in this hypothetical example) because an influenza pandemic like 1918 WOULD generate herd immunity. Coronaviruses don’t. But compare climate: that’s multiple times larger.
Read 8 tweets
Paul Maidowski Profile picture
Jun 29
1. One disastrous claim was that SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19) could become 'mild'. Wishful thinking since no mechanism was ever given how. This motivated all "Living with Covid" + "Infect all children" policy. @fitterhappierAJ etc. - we all - protested. Let's see biorxiv.org/content/10.110…
@fitterhappierAJ 2. The kind @NateB_Panic reminds me to share: I think we see a profound misunderstanding. Recall the second popular, bizarre claim: Somehow we cannot eliminate (local) or eradicate (global) SARS-CoV-2 even though we eradicated its predecessor -1 without most people ever noticing.
@fitterhappierAJ @NateB_Panic 3. Allegedly, we can't eradicate SARS-CoV-2 because it's spilling over into animal populations, from human coronavirus (HCoV) to CoV. Yet the opposite is thinkable. - We will agree infecting billions of children and adults every year is the worst we can do—the virus adapts to us.





Read 7 tweets
Paul Maidowski Profile picture
Jun 17
Fortunately I’m a rocket scientist, so here the public health decision every state worldwide now faces, broken down to its essence. Do you want to live with a SARS virus in your much shortened, disease-ridden lives or would you rather not?

That’s the only real question here. Image
2. Previous iterations of this deep insight. I’m not satisfied with “explode” here because while true on an intergenerational scale, explosive typically denotes a process faster than multiple years - as it will take - to most people. Should say “increase.”
3. You’d think whether we want to live with a SARS and smallpox-like virus (monkeypox ~ variola virus) is at the heart of the German national security policy debate #Sicherheitsstrategie? Cute.

In reality, as @RikeFranke argued, German millennials are incredibly bad at strategy.
Read 15 tweets
Paul Maidowski Profile picture
Jun 17
What were the funniest retweets you got? This by a grifting right wing journalist who doesn’t know what he’s talking about must be my favorite: Image
There has been no public discussion on COVID-Ebola (SARS-CoV-2 / Ebola virus) parallels. That was just one of the many interesting questions never debated while it mattered.
Let's make it the funniest retweets and replies. - Good Sir, before I return to rocket science, I think birds are not real either. Image
Read 4 tweets
Paul Maidowski Profile picture
Jun 17
Every cat video gets more likes, but the information we share may help people who learn: ImageImage
This was popular too but twitter search didn’t return it. The big question is whether China’s massive XBB wave, daughter mutation of BA.2, generates a BA.5 BF.7 circulating recombinant form. Chances are good, given hundreds of millions of reinfections.
This is excellent, timely analysis by @RajlabN. The only problem is that China essentially stopped genetic surveillance and sequencing, or at least publishing, so it’s happy dark times in the health data department.
Read 4 tweets

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