Thread by @ZimermanErik

I will be updating shortly on the ongoing Ukrainian offensive.

Recently it has involved courageous (if not terribly intelligent) assaults against Russian lines around Zaporizhzhia ending like this.

These BMPS carry squads (6-10 troops) to the combat line, what we see in this… https://t.co/hQ2KuGReIMtwitter.com/i/web/status/1…

Update:

More complete footage released from this attack. UA forces are attempting to outflank Robotyne from the east and even southeast (this is ongoing today in new attacks).

Seeing this larger picture we can see that this was reinforced brigade if not a divisional sized

attack. The final BMP destruction occurs here (@DefensePolitics map). The attempt at flanking the town is being attempted by narrow thrusts which his further narrowing the gray zone salient the UA forces have achieved between entrenched positions.
It is either an intentional or

opportunistic kill zone by the Russians. RU forces much earlier in the war learned that these narrow thrusts were essentially suicidal. This is why for example, the ongoing Russian offensive around the Svatove front is about 13 kilometers wide.
Narrow thrusts are essentially

self ambushing. If extremely successful and fast, causing chaos in the rear echelons, it can of course succeed and cause a wider collapse in the front but it is a very high risk gamble that thus far has not paid off for the UA forces. One wonders if it is indeed a calculated

gamble from the UA command, or mere incompetence from a command who desperately wants to show its western backers any success and are "utilizing" the abundant resources they still count on, lots of manpower and endless hardware from the west.
I would say that especially when it

comes to manpower, that is not utilization but an abuse of the courage and trust of the fighting man, and one can be sure that the latter has its limits. An army will be abused by its high command only for so long. Indefinite mass mobilization also has its limits, especially

with videos like this circulating. Perhaps knowing this, the UA command is throwing everything they have and the kitchen sink at the Surovikin line, hoping that the the courage of their men, in continuous waves on ever forthcoming western hardware, will eventually collapse the

Russian lines. We shall see. For this to work, you would need a vast advantage in one or more key measures. Thus far, we see the Russian soldier lacking no less in courage, and his military industry holding up to the attrition against the western economic might.

The lines hold while the second or third army Ukraine established is blown to pieces. Their narrow advances, once exhausted, also invite the possibility of a counter attack that encircles them continuously. The deeper their success, the more likely this becomes.
Like much of UA

strategy, it is colored by their own propaganda. Here for example we see the result of believing that their successful counteroffensive in Kharkhov last year against non-existent Russian lines and absent manpower meant that their "superior" forces could easily punch through the

demoralized Russian forces. We knew better and discussed so. Rather than learning the lesson, which was that superior strategy and deception could achieve success against a strong but imperfect enemy (great planning and effort, objective thinking, clandestine work, hitting the

enemy where weak with your strength etc), they learned that they can order their army forward and the Russian one will run back.
Furthermore as we have discussed, they overvalued modern western training compared to that by their own junior officers and NCO's who have battled one

the strongest armies in the world for a year. While UA troops have gotten better overall, as have their junior ranks (that is the conscripted army, the professional one is largely destroyed), their high command has gotten more bloated and worse. An entitlement mentality and near

endless resources (for the time being) has that effect. Their original resourcefulness brought on by necessity has turned to self-righteousness and sloth. (Russia to some extent has undergone an opposite process).

The men under their command suffer the consequences.

Note: Got carried away again in what started out as a brief update regarding this incredible newly released footage. Then went a bit lyrical as I tend to do, despite as we have found, no trace of Irish in me!

(some of this commentary is what I intended for a more broad piece on… twitter.com/i/web/status/1…