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Andrew Perpetua

Jul 28, 2023 • 20 tweets • 11 min read • Read on X

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I will go into more detail tomorrow on the stream, but here is a brief update

South of Klishchiivka, we see heavy shelling over the past few days near Andriivka. Especially where the road enters the town. Could point to liberation

https://t.co/gecWHHxRvk https://t.co/LJajlY72ulmap.ukrdailyupdate.com/?lat=48.500284…
apps.sentinel-hub.com/eo-browser/?zo…

Slightly further south, west of Kurdyumivka, the forest strips have been completely destroyed by shelling, and the area is almost certainly controlled by Ukraine now.

https://t.co/G1SP8RdOAI https://t.co/ab4TANTuSmmap.ukrdailyupdate.com/?lat=48.476335…
apps.sentinel-hub.com/eo-browser/?zo…

South of Avdiivka, Ukraine has been attacking toward Pisky from Nevelske for the past week or so. We have had several videos of these assaults, including this one from several days ago.

Now we have satellite images showing MICLIC clearing a minefield

https://t.co/yKmBD77dn4 https://t.co/yTB7aLqGpzmap.ukrdailyupdate.com/?lat=48.057531…
apps.sentinel-hub.com/eo-browser/?zo…

And heavy shelling

https://t.co/BVSmlBoGQ9 https://t.co/C9uUtqHsmWmap.ukrdailyupdate.com/?lat=48.061087…
apps.sentinel-hub.com/eo-browser/?zo…

Today Ukraine announced the Liberation of Staromaiorske. Supposedly Russia still controls the adjacent town of Urozhaine, but the capture of Staromaiorske makes the defense of this town difficult/impossible.

https://t.co/DUabg5fAyKmap.ukrdailyupdate.com/?lat=47.753694…

You can see a celebration video.

Beyond Staromairorske and Urozhaine, there is the town of Zavitne and then the important settlement of Staromlynivka. We could also see a leveling of the line in the higher ground between Pryiutne and Staromaiorske, due to their supply lines being threatened from both sides.

East of Robotyne and nearing Verbove, there was an interesting video today of what may be a remote controlled Ukrainian vehicle driving toward the main Russian defensive line.

This event occurred here on the map.

https://t.co/o7qVB4dJexmap.ukrdailyupdate.com/?lat=47.448319…

Near this location we also see a large crater on the satellite imagery, perhaps a bomb.

https://t.co/ltwqUYggAe https://t.co/eLWZKvtIDAmap.ukrdailyupdate.com/?lat=47.448145…
apps.sentinel-hub.com/eo-browser/?zo…

Yesterday, Gachi posted a video of what appeared to be a large explosion going off in the same area. "Помилка вийшла. КАБ не трофейний, рсня трохи попала по своїм позиціям власним боєприпасом."

A little east of this position, we see heavy shelling on the satellite imagery, suggesting a possible Ukrainian advance along this forest strip. The parallel strip to the east shows no such damage.

https://t.co/pee0T3O7iY https://t.co/YEcRI1xD2Xmap.ukrdailyupdate.com/?lat=47.441266…
apps.sentinel-hub.com/eo-browser/?zo…

Slightly closer to Robotyne, Ukraine had a disastrous assault on a Russian trench system where they lost three BMP in the assault and likely 3 more in a prior assault. In addition, there are 3 more destroyed vehicles of unknown ownership.

https://t.co/wZ374DfDwPmap.ukrdailyupdate.com/?lat=47.443704…

The video is too long for me to post so here are screen shots. https://t.co/ETX8AsFHhat.me/voenacher/49296

However, there is another video from roughly the same area where a vehicle claimed to be a Ukrainian M113 is destroyed.

I am not convinced this is a M113, I cannot identify it, personally. But if it is I believe it suggests Ukrainian has moved on from this position and is attacking somewhere else because I believe this vehicle is used for casualty evacuation and not assaulting in this area.

All in all, we can say Ukraine took significant casualties in this area. Likely 30-40 vehicles lost, hundreds wounded and dead. But Ukraine is digging defenses in new positions, bringing in reinforcements, and the attacks will continue. It is too early to say what will happen.

If you are wondering what Ukraine needs the most at the moment, the answer is simple: Ammo. Mortars. Mortars, MORTARS. Artillery. More mortars. Smoke rounds. More mortars.

Here are the losses I could identify today.

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Andrew Perpetua

@AndrewPerpetua

Aug 21

This is what Russia does. A country that only exports oil, gas, and war. This is the city of Marinka.

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Andrew Perpetua

@AndrewPerpetua

Jul 26

I wrote 2 years ago about why I was worried about Molniya drones. They are long range and capable of very large warheads. For whatever reason they were oddly scarce for a while, but they have become very common items on the battlefield and exactly everything I feared.

They can destroy a house in a single hit. Even small concrete buildings. They can dive straight down into dugouts, fly along trenches and fly into bunkers. They are being used to target infantry now, too. Russia clearly has a lot of them and are using them to destroy things that used to require helicopters.

They cost around $1000 each, roughly 2x a base level drone or roughly the same price as a higher end fpv drone. But they can carry a 6-7kg bomb and can fly over 40km.

Read 6 tweets

Andrew Perpetua

@AndrewPerpetua

Jul 3

The United States government is built on the concept that Congressmen will have the swagger to take pride in their station. The government hinges on congress enforcing their will upon others. They are supposed to be arrogant sons of bitches who look down on others.

The moment you have a congress that is unwilling or incapable of being arrogant, condescending assholes and you instead have weak placating losers, the whole foundation of the government crumbles. The supreme arrogance of congress is what lets them reign in power of president.

Right now the US has the weakest congress in its history. A bunch of spineless losers who are incapable of even having independent thought. They are owned entirely by others, especially the republican party who bows to a president. Imagine, a CONGRESSMEN bowing to a PRESIDENT.

Read 7 tweets

Andrew Perpetua

@AndrewPerpetua

Jun 23

A few areas where I have been focusing on geoing strikes on Russians positions lately have been interesting in that only a very tiny number of Russians are defending. In one area in particular, the video showed a drone scan a series of trenches where only four Russians were spotted. Two killed and two forced to flee. I wonder what is behind those Russians, and whether it is similarly a skeleton crew on defense. Also, these Russians were quite far from Ukrainian positions, so they were not some extremely advanced forward position, they seem to me to be the second and/or third line of defense, which are typically more heavily manned.

When I see video like this, from an area very far from offensive actions, where Russia is purely defending, it makes me wonder how different the war would be if Ukraine had the capacity to attack this location. I feel like if Ukraine were to attack and capture it, many people online would say the area doesn't matter because it is only advancing 1km or blah blah. But advancing 1km is important, because it forces Russians to divert resources away from attacking to defending. Or you will advance a second k, or a third km until such a point that the Russians are forced to defend.

There is an area where Ukraine has been slowly advancing in this manner. Nobody is really talking about it, because it isn't sexy. It doesn't impact any large battles, it isn't a sign of things to come, or anything else. It is just Ukraine taking advantage of Russia failing to adequately defend positions.

Read 5 tweets

Andrew Perpetua

@AndrewPerpetua

May 23

Ukraine does not have an adequate air force, but it can create the effects of an air force using other methods and tools. For example, long-range drones can be deployed in a series of nested concentric circles to mine and harass supply roads, effectively cutting them off.

One layer of drones could strike targets 100 km out, the next at 80 km, then 60 km, 40 km, and finally, the remaining drones could dominate the last 20–30 km leading to the front.

With sufficient drone coverage density, the impact on enemy logistics can closely mirror that of a conventional air force—cutting off supplies and limiting troop movements.

Furthermore, the development of heavier strike drones, with payloads between 100 and 500 kg, can replicate the effects of traditional airstrikes. In conjunction with attack drones, this combination becomes a deadly one-two punch: attack drones locate and relay target positions, and heavier strike drones follow up with rapid and destructive precision.

Once the enemy's rear positions are degraded to this extent, the front becomes unsustainable. The opposing force will be forced to withdraw, regardless of intent.

Ukraine does not need large offensive pushes to defeat Russia. It needs extremely high-density drone coverage to deny Russian sustainment. Land can be taken back piece by piece, without committing to large and costly ground assaults.

All but the heavy strike drones can be done with the technology that Ukraine has available today, right now. The strike drones could be developed in short order. This is a realistic path to victory using the tools and resources available. And one which Europe could help using financing alone.

Europe could also provide longer range weapons for Ukraine’s existing aircraft, which is frankly a much more unrealistic path forward. Albeit possible. And Europe doesn’t really have the weapons available to give, so would require making them first.

Read 4 tweets

Andrew Perpetua

@AndrewPerpetua

May 10

After Trump put Fedex guys in charge of USPS, the democrats should issue an official warning that any aspect of USPS that might get “privatized” under trump will be immediately seized, without compensation, by the following administration and congress.

There should be an open air understanding that any aspect of the government privatized by Trump will be seized back without compensation. We will eminent domain your ass, and change any law (or court makeup) to make it legal.

The property of the people isn’t for sale. That’s the message.

Read 4 tweets

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