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Andrew Perpetua Profile picture
@AndrewPerpetua
Jul 28, 2023 • 20 tweets • 11 min read • Read on X
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I will go into more detail tomorrow on the stream, but here is a brief update

South of Klishchiivka, we see heavy shelling over the past few days near Andriivka. Especially where the road enters the town. Could point to liberation


https://t.co/gecWHHxRvk https://t.co/LJajlY72ulmap.ukrdailyupdate.com/?lat=48.500284…
apps.sentinel-hub.com/eo-browser/?zo…

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Slightly further south, west of Kurdyumivka, the forest strips have been completely destroyed by shelling, and the area is almost certainly controlled by Ukraine now.



https://t.co/G1SP8RdOAI https://t.co/ab4TANTuSmmap.ukrdailyupdate.com/?lat=48.476335…
apps.sentinel-hub.com/eo-browser/?zo…

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South of Avdiivka, Ukraine has been attacking toward Pisky from Nevelske for the past week or so. We have had several videos of these assaults, including this one from several days ago.
Now we have satellite images showing MICLIC clearing a minefield


https://t.co/yKmBD77dn4 https://t.co/yTB7aLqGpzmap.ukrdailyupdate.com/?lat=48.057531…
apps.sentinel-hub.com/eo-browser/?zo…

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And heavy shelling



https://t.co/BVSmlBoGQ9 https://t.co/C9uUtqHsmWmap.ukrdailyupdate.com/?lat=48.061087…
apps.sentinel-hub.com/eo-browser/?zo…

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Today Ukraine announced the Liberation of Staromaiorske. Supposedly Russia still controls the adjacent town of Urozhaine, but the capture of Staromaiorske makes the defense of this town difficult/impossible.

https://t.co/DUabg5fAyKmap.ukrdailyupdate.com/?lat=47.753694…
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You can see a celebration video.
Beyond Staromairorske and Urozhaine, there is the town of Zavitne and then the important settlement of Staromlynivka. We could also see a leveling of the line in the higher ground between Pryiutne and Staromaiorske, due to their supply lines being threatened from both sides. Image
East of Robotyne and nearing Verbove, there was an interesting video today of what may be a remote controlled Ukrainian vehicle driving toward the main Russian defensive line.
This event occurred here on the map.

https://t.co/o7qVB4dJexmap.ukrdailyupdate.com/?lat=47.448319…
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Near this location we also see a large crater on the satellite imagery, perhaps a bomb.



https://t.co/ltwqUYggAe https://t.co/eLWZKvtIDAmap.ukrdailyupdate.com/?lat=47.448145…
apps.sentinel-hub.com/eo-browser/?zo…

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Yesterday, Gachi posted a video of what appeared to be a large explosion going off in the same area. "Помилка вийшла. КАБ не трофейний, рсня трохи попала по своїм позиціям власним боєприпасом."
A little east of this position, we see heavy shelling on the satellite imagery, suggesting a possible Ukrainian advance along this forest strip. The parallel strip to the east shows no such damage.


https://t.co/pee0T3O7iY https://t.co/YEcRI1xD2Xmap.ukrdailyupdate.com/?lat=47.441266…
apps.sentinel-hub.com/eo-browser/?zo…

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Slightly closer to Robotyne, Ukraine had a disastrous assault on a Russian trench system where they lost three BMP in the assault and likely 3 more in a prior assault. In addition, there are 3 more destroyed vehicles of unknown ownership.

https://t.co/wZ374DfDwPmap.ukrdailyupdate.com/?lat=47.443704…
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The video is too long for me to post so here are screen shots. https://t.co/ETX8AsFHhat.me/voenacher/49296



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However, there is another video from roughly the same area where a vehicle claimed to be a Ukrainian M113 is destroyed.
I am not convinced this is a M113, I cannot identify it, personally. But if it is I believe it suggests Ukrainian has moved on from this position and is attacking somewhere else because I believe this vehicle is used for casualty evacuation and not assaulting in this area.
All in all, we can say Ukraine took significant casualties in this area. Likely 30-40 vehicles lost, hundreds wounded and dead. But Ukraine is digging defenses in new positions, bringing in reinforcements, and the attacks will continue. It is too early to say what will happen. Image
If you are wondering what Ukraine needs the most at the moment, the answer is simple: Ammo. Mortars. Mortars, MORTARS. Artillery. More mortars. Smoke rounds. More mortars.
Here are the losses I could identify today. Image

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More from @AndrewPerpetua

Andrew Perpetua Profile picture
Dec 11
Frankly I think the fastest way to end the war in Ukraine is not by sending tanks or by idiotic peace proposals. The fastest way is to set up factories across europe to produce 1000-2000 long range strike drones per day, and launch hundreds if not thousands of drones into Russia every single day until the country collapses. If they think sending 500 drones into Ukraine is a threat, see how they respond when 3000 drones fly into Russia.
With this many drones you can hammer every single factory, powerplant, substation, oil refinery, and mine in russia relentlessly.
Europe had a million drone program, to supply 1 million fpv drones. Fuck fpv drones. Have a 1 million drone program to supply 1 million strike drones. That's your million drones.
Read 4 tweets
Andrew Perpetua Profile picture
Dec 3
The "stupid westerners, sanctions do not work, we smuggle goods in illegally. muahaha, Russia unstoppable" people tickle me. Sanctions are not for stopping goods entirely, they are for increasing friction because the resources you spend smuggling are resources not spent growing
People fundamentally don't understand the purpose of a sanction. Sanctions are not to stop the war now, although they do damage Russia, the real goal of a sanction is long term economic damage to permanently shrink their economic growth on the timescale of decades.
The sanction is basically saying "okay, you're a threat to me today, and maybe I can't do much about it now, but I will shrink you and outgrow you so in 50-100 years you are no longer a threat to me at all". It is a long term play.
Read 4 tweets
Andrew Perpetua Profile picture
Nov 1
The Russians claim they shoot down Ukrainian aircraft the moment the missile leaves the tube, but we're supposed to believe they shot down two Black Hawks on Tuesday and only announced it after Ukraine leaked Black Hawk footage on Friday. These Black Hawks join the 650 F-16s and 450,000 M777s Russia has 'destroyed.'
GUYS. I AM GOING TO POST A VIDEO WHERE I WILL BLUR THE UNIT LOGOS TO SHIT SO NOBODY CAN TELL I STOLE THE VIDEOS FROM THE ARCHIVE AND THEN POST IT TO THE INTERNET SAYING I KILLED ALL THE SPECIAL FORCES
And then media outlets and super smart think tank people all over the world will believe me for some reason and then everyone will be like omg all the special forces died.
Read 4 tweets
Andrew Perpetua Profile picture
Oct 18
Guys I took my division and charged them into combat and while we lost 50% of our armored vehicles and 45% of our infantry are dead, and several of our HQs were destroyed and most of our best officers are dead, we captured a village where 200 once lived so we’re winning the war.
Tomorrow we will send our next division to assault the next village. That one had a population of 1200. Its actually considered a huge city, when you think about it. If we can capture that, we will send our third division to capture the hamlet behind it.
Every day we advance. That means we’re winning.
Read 6 tweets
Andrew Perpetua Profile picture
Aug 21
This is what Russia does. A country that only exports oil, gas, and war. This is the city of Marinka. Image
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Read 4 tweets
Andrew Perpetua Profile picture
Jul 26
I wrote 2 years ago about why I was worried about Molniya drones. They are long range and capable of very large warheads. For whatever reason they were oddly scarce for a while, but they have become very common items on the battlefield and exactly everything I feared.
They can destroy a house in a single hit. Even small concrete buildings. They can dive straight down into dugouts, fly along trenches and fly into bunkers. They are being used to target infantry now, too. Russia clearly has a lot of them and are using them to destroy things that used to require helicopters.
They cost around $1000 each, roughly 2x a base level drone or roughly the same price as a higher end fpv drone. But they can carry a 6-7kg bomb and can fly over 40km.
Read 6 tweets

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