Trent Telenko Profile picture
Jul 28 18 tweets 5 min read Twitter logo Read on Twitter
Multiple media sources are claiming Russia intercepted a pair of Ukrainian S-200 surface to air missiles repurposed as ballistic missiles fired into Southern Russia near Rostov on the Don.

This is the Economic Times of India.

Ukraine's ersatz ATACMS🧵
1/
economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/defence/m…
This is a Ukrainian media link on the attack pointing to Taganrog, Russia.

2/
pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2023/…
This is a telegram video of the alleged strike.



3/t.me/bazabazon/20003
Oleksiy Danilov's Facebook, OTOH, says it's incompetent Russian air defenses causing the damage.

This is Danilov trolling the Russians for their claims that the Odesa cathedral was caused by a Ukrainian defense missile.😈

4/
facebook.com/danilov.oleksi…
The impact site in Russia is 170 km from the front lines, so this is reasonable for a converted S-200 5V28 SAM.

5/
And this is a video of the converted 5V28 missile impact.

6/
While the S-200 missile launcher is intended for fixed site firings.

Both the 5V28 missile and its S-200 launcher are easily road mobile with a semi-tractor trailer rig.

Ukraine has likely improved this gear for faster set up and displacement.

7/

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The Ukrainian warstock of the legacy S-200 '5V28' missiles is abundant.

One of the articles by Zgurets I have quoted in an earlier Ukrainian SAM fleet thread said PSU had around 1,000 rounds.

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Eastern European NATO members could almost double those numbers.

Poland was retiring two batteries as the current war kicked off.

Moldova retired their S-200 battery.

Bulgaria still operates this relic.

The Czechs had two batteries.

9/
Other than Bulgaria, what happened to the various East European NATO nation's warstock has never been explained.

Given the 5V28 missile uses the same propellant supply as the SA-2 GUIDLINE, and Bulgaria still has active stocks. Providing fuel for PSU 5V28 missile strikes

10/
...is a non-issue.

The 5V28 range limit will be set by the fuel tank powering the turbogenerator that powers the electrical bus that feeds the guidance electronics.

The 345 km range 5V28D missile would be using larger propellant tanks for the turbo-generator package.
11/
The 5I43 (or later 5I47I) is a 65 SHP turbogenerator spun up prelaunch by a one shot gas cartridge, upon which the hypergolic fuel is introduced into the gas generator and used to drive the turbine.

In turn the turbine transfers torque to the main fuel pumps, a hydraulic

12/
...pump, and a pair of electrical generators, with additional electrical transformers embedded in the unit.

Unlike a ballistic missile, where control power is irrelevant once the main engine has ceased its burn, a 5V28 SAM requires power to its systems until impact. As
13/
...a result the 5I43/5I47I turbogenerator uses its own isolated fuel system, but burning the same fuel type as the 5V28 SAM cruise engine.

Given the range of the impact from the front lines, Ukraine has replaced the command guidance kit with some form of GPS/inertial

14/
...guidance kit.

What this means is Ukraine's "Ersatz ATACMS" can be used without US imposed usage restrictions or geofencing software baggage on targets that can be hit, like with GMLRS.

15/
The 5V28 SAM warhead is in the same lethality class as the ATACMS frag-blast unitary warhead.

This is just the thing you need to destroy the electric train infrastructure of the marshaling yard at Rostov-on-the-Don and possibly set off a RuAF munitions train there.

16/
This link has everything you wanted to know about the legacy Soviet S-200 surface to air missile system:

17/17 End

ausairpower.net/APA-S-200VE-Ve…
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More from @TrentTelenko

Jul 28
The UA media cited point of impact for Ukraine's S-200 strike was 22 Lermontov St. Which is next door to a Russian Federal Services building in Taganrog, Russia.

Exactly what govt dept is in that building has not been explained.🤔 (Russian FSB?)


1/ https://t.co/bQq5y2IFhO https://t.co/go2LtoHCvxpravda.com.ua/eng/news/2023/…

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It certainly got the Russians worked up as a short while ago they shot a missile into the Ukrainian SBU building in Dnipro city in what looks like a tit-for-tat.

The UA piece below also noted that Taganrog Air Base hosted a A-50 AWACS in May 2023.

2/
pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2023/…
Advisor to the Head of the Office of the President of Ukraine Mykhailo Podolyak is not admitting the S-200 hit was Ukrainian and is blaming Russia for it.

This seems to be Ukraine mirroring back at Russia exactly...

3/
ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/374…
Read 7 tweets
Jul 28
This is another example of the Biden Administration's "Escalation Management" yo-yo's in the NSC abandoning the USA's vital interests in "Freedom of the Seas" to appease Russia's psychopathic ex-KGB dictator.

1/
The De-escalation ideology National Security Advisor Jake "MacNamara" Sullivan et al subscribed to exists in an intellectual vacuum not connected with high level strategy making as strategy always considers the opponent's doctrine and ideology.

2/
De-escalation ideology assumes that turning the other cheek works.

I know of no historical instances where it did, but, despite this, it has had a fervent following in the West, including WW2 Nazi-appeasers in the UK and US, Cold War USSR-appeasers, and now Russia-appeasers.

3/ Image
Read 8 tweets
Jul 27
The stupid of this very public lie Biden Admin. NSC just burns🔥🔥🔥

The NSC is publicly pretending it hasn't done this already...

...and also is pretending it will do it more competently, and not get caught, next time.🙄

1/
To begin with, the Biden Administration NSC already got its fingers caught in the 'talk to the Russian dictator behind Ukraine's back' cookie jar:

2/
nbcnews.com/news/world/for…
And there were a lot of other media sources confirming this incompetent betrayal of Ukraine, like this:

3/
Read 10 tweets
Jul 27
This first person video (FPV) 'kamikaze drone' AKA loitering munition video of the destruction of a TOS-1A heavy flamethrower tells us a lot about the range capabilities of the FPV killing it and much else.

Drone & EW Tech 🧵
1/
The TOS-1A Solntsepyok (Russian: Солнцепёк, Blazing Sun) comes with three classes of rockets with ranges of 2,700 to 3,500 meters (Wikipedia gives two ranges), 6,000 m and 10 km.

The 3.5 km versions were Afghan War & Chechen Wars ammo.

2/en.wikipedia.org/wiki/TOS-1
The 6 km and 10 km versions were introduced in 2016 and 2020 respectively.

Short range - MO.1.01.04
Medium Range - MO.1.01.04M
Long Range - M0.1.01.04M2

Each improvement in range was an attempt to get out of recoilless rifle, and then ATGM, engagement ranges.

3/
Read 14 tweets
Jul 26
This🧵 is a reminder of how hard the De-escalation faction inside the Biden Admin. - centered on National Security Advisor Jake "MacNamara" Sullivan - are spreading disinformation like Russians about the 'backwardness' of Ukraine that prevents it from using F-16's
DC Con Men🧵
1/
This is in the same class of stupid & easily disproved public lies told about the supposed Ukrainian inability to maintain Western AFV's with a two level maintenance system by Ukraine's four level maintenance system.

See 🧵⬇️

2/

The repeated stupidity I've seen from Western military maintainers supporting the "De-escalation disinformation" w/fundamentally racist projections of training experience with Iraqi and Afghan maintainers onto AFU burns.

Cultures matter in logistics.
3/
Read 22 tweets
Jul 26
This map shows when the Biden Administration National Security Council lies badly about ATACMS being needed to protect Taiwan from Chinese invasion.

This is a 300km range circle from the Japanese Ishigaki Island.

ATACMS are not of much use there. You need a 500(+) km missile
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This is a 300km ATACMS range from the far smaller Japanese Yonaguni Island.

Here is a simple question for reporters to ask the Pentagon spokesman.

"Are any American preposition gear in the Southern Ryukyus islands of Ishigaki or Yonaguni?

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I posted about the Southern Ryukyus on May 8, 2015 in a column titled "Future History Friday — China’s “Days of Future Past” Come Closer" when the answer was zero US kit there.

But the Japanese were getting around to putting a Type 88 anti-ship



3/ https://t.co/UvFuhtB0Ldchicagoboyz.net/archives/48406…
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Read 7 tweets

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