Andrew A. Michta Profile picture
Jul 31 6 tweets 2 min read Twitter logo Read on Twitter
🧵As I watch the brutal war unfold in #Ukraine, I need to make the following point for those who believe that somehow the US and its allies have full agency when it comes to what happens there-how it ends. True, since the US is the principal source of aid, we have influence. 1/6
But in the final analysis it is #Ukraine's fight for its sovereignty, for its very survival as a nation. Ukraine is an independent actor with its own interests/priorities. Never forget that it is emphatically NOT (as the Russians have tried to portray it) a US/@NATO puppet. 2/6
I find it odd to say the list that so many armchair strategists presume to prescribe the end game to #Ukrainians or talk about "trading land for peace." I suppose it's easy to draw lines on the map and give away someone else's land. In wonder what if this was their country? 3/6
In many a Western capital when it comes to Ukraine there seems to be a disconnect between the rhetoric about norms and values on the one hand, and the extent to which gov'ts are willing (unwilling?) to go to affirm the principles we claim to hold so dear as key to who we are. 4/6
#Ukraine has reminded us of the critical importance of the principle of national self-determination, for without it there can be no freedom to craft one's political and economic institutions. The price they have paid and continue to pay means that agency is ultimately theirs. 5/6
The West may grow weary of supporting #Ukraine (Putin is betting on just that), but I doubt that the Ukrainians will give up the fight even if our aid decreases. We can influence the course of this war, but it will be the Ukrainian people who decide when and how it ends. 6/End

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More from @andrewmichta

Jul 25
🧵It is uncanny how many nat'l security analysts cling to the "short war" illusion when it comes to the war in #Ukraine. Throughout history the most bloody and transformative wars were thought of this way. The war in Ukraine is already a long war; it's been ongoing since 2014.1/7
And how many wrong assumptions there were about the relative power distribution in Europe, the strength of the Russian army, and most of all how much Western analysts underestimated the Ukrainians, their morale and their patriotism. There is a lesson here for the future. 2/7
We need to be cautious going forward about our own bias brought into the analysis. Too many analysts have had the "military balance" mentality that looks at capabilities, but neglects geography, distance and most importantly social cohesion & resilience have been in this war. 3/7
Read 7 tweets
Jul 19
🧵I’ve been looking as the relative analytical contributions made by universities, think tanks and research institutes to our understanding of the drivers of the Russian invasion of #Ukraine, including pre-invasion assessments, projected outcomes and how the war would unfold. 1/5
It is striking how largely irrelevant US universities have been to our understanding of the war in #Ukraine relative to think tanks and research institutes. I think one of the principal reasons is the demise of Area Studies expertise at US universities over the past 30 years.2/5
This has been particularly true about American Political Science where Area Studies are no longer a pathway to tenure, pushing academics into a never-ending quest to be “scientific”—with grad schools churning out model-builders at the expense of regional and country experts. 3/5
Read 5 tweets
Jul 17
Today again I read more official pronouncements about how our strategy is focused on “protecting the rules-based international order.” So now I have to ask: What order exactly? The one Putin has repeatedly violated attacking sovereign countries and got away with it till now?1/7
Or the one that allows China to steal intellectual property, extort our technology and data in exchange for market access? Or is this rules-based order the one that every day allows Russia to level Ukraine block by block with impunity? I could go on, but enough said for now. 2/7
The reality is that #Russia and #China have been waging a hybrid war against democracies, and they are ready to escalate to regular war. They know what they want: Russia wants to revise the post-Cold War settlement in its favor. China wants to replace the US as the leader. 3/7
Read 7 tweets
Jul 10
🧵As I listen to our debates about great power strategic competition, I'm struck by how similar their conclusions seem to be, i.e., that to prevail we must out-innovate #China, have strong global alliances, domestically stable societies, lead on R&D, whole of gov't, etc. etc.1/11
Like our key national security documents, the public debate seems to stipulate that the current global economic model will continue to structure our competition against Russia and China, i.e., that the world of "complex interdependence" (to use a PoliSci cliche) will go on. 2/11
We seem unwilling to recognize that the current globalist model made the modernization of #China possible-our offshoring of manufacturing to take advantage of labor arbitrage in China, aided by cheap energy Russia dumped into the system after the collapse of the Soviet Union.3/11
Read 11 tweets
Jul 10
🧵As #NATOVilniusSummit is about to begin, the lack of consensus on bringing #Ukraine into @NATO is in plain view. Vilnius will be remembered for the new regional plans and other decisions that bring NATO back to its roots, but the political heavy lift is unlikely to happen.1 /5
I have advocated for #Ukraine’s membership in @NATO from the start, and will continue to do so. But I am now convinced that to bring #Ukraine into NATO is not just about threat assessments, and concerns about direct conflict between @NATO and Russia and a wider war in Europe. 2/5
To bring #Ukraine into @NATO requires a mindset change in how the West thinks about Eastern Europe and #Russia. When @NATO enlarged after the Cold War, we talked institutions and values, but when it comes to Eastern Europe history has remained an undercurrent of the debate. 3/5
Read 5 tweets
Jun 26
🧵The crisis in #Russia triggered by Prigozhin's rebellion is far from over. Speculation aside about what actually happened and what the Lukashenka-brokered "deal" is about, we are left with even more questions today than yesterday when the quasi-coup unfolded in real time. 1/5
The key question is what happens in Russia after the tsar has been directly challenged, and the challenger (for now at least) walked away scot-free. Where is the loyalty of the Russian army today in the aftermath of Prigozhin's challenge? Most of all, can Putin still rally? 2/5
Yesterday's warm farewell for Prigozhin by the citizens of Rostov should raise eyebrows. And the fact that he wasn't stopped in his march on Moscow, even though the Russian military had the means to do so. The army's relative inaction cannot be explained by mere opportunism. 3/5
Read 5 tweets

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