🧵Most of the commentary I see from European analysts about the US-led negotiation to end the war in #Ukraine falls into two broad categories: 1. Outrage that European leaders haven't been included in the process; 2. Speculation on what the end state in Ukraine will look like.1/9 Much less time is being spent on the third and key question: 3. What will be the enforcement mechanism once the deal has been reached, who will enforce the armistice and for how long? At its core it is the question about who will take the risk and pay for the implementation. 2/9

🧵Let’s understand where we are: If #Ukraine is abandoned, what’s left of the security architecture in Europe will unravel in short order. And the consequences will be felt in other theaters, including the Indo-Pacific. The likelihood of a general war in Europe will increase. 1/5 No matter how we spin it, any deal that ratifies Russia’s territorial gains in #Ukraine and forecloses Kyiv’s path to membership in @NATO will be a systemic win for Putin—one where Russia defeated not only Ukraine but the West. Our defeat will reverberate in other theaters. 2/5

🧵May I say a few word to my European friends who now berate the US for allegedly “cozying up to Russia” and “abandoning Europe”? I’m sorry, but what was NordStream 1/2 about? What was the “Minsk process” after Russia invaded Georgia and seized Crimea? Where were you then? 1/5 Putin invaded Georgia and still NordStream 1 was completed. Putin annexed Crimea and then NordStream 2 was nonetheless started. He butchered Syrians in 2015 and there was virtually no reaction from European capitals. And then after 2022 recall all the “red lines” you debated?2/5

🧵Heading back to DC after @MunSecConf followed by a brief stop-over in Warsaw to speak at Szkoła Przywództwa @instwolnosci. The key delivery for me from Munich: Europe slept through the last three years when it comes to rearmament, with the consequences for all to see. 1/5 I leave with a palpable sense that the largest European countries are scrambling to adapt to the new reality of great power politics. Nothing highlights the extent of this disorientation more than a senior German politician breaking in tears during the MSC closing ceremony. 2/5

🧵A few thoughts after the first day of @MunSecConf, especially after the principal opening speeches. The MSC theme of "multipolarization" (captured in MSC2025 report) reflects the thrust of the discussion. This "multipolarization of the int'l order" equals "uncertainty." 1/10 The speeches delivered on stage yesterday (Steinmeier, von der Leyen) were a message from Europe about leveraging and adapting existing institutions; and from the US (Vance) that the US is seeking a fundamental change in how US-European relations with our @NATO allies work. 2/10

🧵For three years the West has supported #Ukraine in its defense against #Russia. It has provided weapons, munitions and money without which Ukraine would not have been able to resist. What has been missing, however, is a vision and a strategy for Ukraine’s victory. 1/9 The “Russia can’t win, Ukraine can’t lose” mantra is an expression of strategic myopia and sheer confusion when it comes to understanding the stakes. Instead of articulating a clear strategy, the Biden administration prioritized escalation management “for as long as it takes.”2/9

🧵I've been traveling in Europe for the past two weeks, talking to politicians and analysts. I'm concerned but at the same time encouraged when it comes to the future of transatlantic relations. While Europe's establishment politicians are in denial, others seem to get it. 1/10 Some responses to the second Donald Trump administration have been utterly predictable-just like in 2016, I've heard politicians/analysts hyperventilate, disturbed just like they were back then by statements coming from Washington. Frankly, I have no more patience for this. 2/10

🧵For over a decade I’ve been watching with growing disbelief as Western capitals de facto abandoned any effort to compete for influence in #Belarus, all but ceding it to Russia’s sphere of domination—without much thought given to the strategic implication of this outcome.1/7 I visited Minsk on two occasions during that time, and each time upon return I tried to ring the bell to wake up European/American policy elites to what was happening. Only a few would listen, and virtually no one would act on it. It was strategic myopia of the first order. 2/7

🧵A few thoughts on the fundamentals the West must acknowledge today if it is to build an effective strategy against the "Axis of Dictatorships" (Russia, China, North Korea and Iran). First, those powers are not "rational actors" in the way our IR theory would stipulate. 1/10 #Russia is a quintessentially revisionist power. Putin is relitigating the end of the Cold War, determined to restore his internal empire in Eastern Europe (Belarus and Ukraine) and assert a sphere of influence in Central Europe. He desperately wants the US out of Europe. 2/10

🧵What matters most in int'l relations: language or content? It seems the answers should be simple, but over the last three decades the alliance seems to have forgotten the basics of hard power politics, and what nation states are about. In a nutshell: national security. 1/10 Enter recent statements by President-Elect Donald Trump about Greenland. Yes, allies should be mindful of each other's sensitivities, but could we please get beyond the verbiage and talk for once about the brass knuckles of national security? About what is at stake there? 2/10

🧵We are entering a period of intense debate about what the end state in #Ukraine should be, what kind of peace deal can/cannot be negotiated by the incoming US administration, and what long-term prospects there might be for negotiating a modus vivendi with Putin's Russia. 1/9 BLUF: I don't believe there is a deal Putin will accept that wouldn't be tantamount to his victory. For 3 years the West offered no strategy beyond escalation management. Until real setbacks make him realize he can't win at an acceptable cost to his power base, he won't stop. 2/9

🧵Over Christmas I've been thinking about the reasons why Western societies have forfeited so much of their erstwhile resilience. The problem is not money or technology, for we have them in spades. And yet we seem no longer able to accept that resilience stipulates risk. 1/10 Resilience is not just about plans and provisions. It's at its core about a deeply held conviction that what we represent is worth defending whatever the risk; that should we fail, we'll not give up but persevere to victory. In our relativized West such binaries are no more.2/10

🧵This will be brief post, as I watch with painful amazement the gyrations of political elites across Europe-leaders, parliamentarians and analysts-try to position themselves in anticipation of the incoming Trump administration. And the picture is not pretty, I must say. 1/10 The post-Cold War decades have produced zero-risk societies across Europe-great at telling their stories about equality, individual rights and the rule of law, but increasingly bad at living by the code they preach when systemic disruptors put them to the test. Why, I ask? 2/10

🧵At a risk of engaging in hyperbole, this is truly an inflection point in European politics. With the vote of no-confidence in the Bundestag coming shortly after the implosion of the French gov't and the UK gov't barely plodding forward, where is Europe's leadership today? 1//10 Never let a crisis go to waste-Washington should remember this old adage. And so should all Europeans who value the transatlantic alliance. It's a time to align US relations with Europe in a way that leverages shared threat perceptions and builds new regional substructures. 2/10

🧵I first visited #Georgia in 1989 during the waning days of the Soviet Union. I came to Tbilisi with a small group of Americans-academics, think tankers and US naval officers. I was impressed by the Georgian people’s love of freedom and their determination to be sovereign. 1/5 Today as I watch the current pro-Moscow’s regime in Tbilisi attempt to extinguish the flame of freedom in Georgia, I have ask this simple question: Where are Western governments while young Georgian men and women risk their lives to defend liberty? What are we prepared to do? 2/5

🧵As I follow the ever-more frantic efforts by our political class to explain away the results of the US election, I wonder why some find it so hard to accept that the sovereign has spoken, and that it is incumbent on everyone to understand why and respect the decision. 1/14 I live in DC-a quintessentially "corporate city" when it comes to American politics. Politics is really the only industry here, with its never-ending merry-go-round of who is in and who is out on a given day. This rarified atmospherics at times goes to people's heads. 2/14

🧵A few thoughts about the enduring verities of the Darwinian self-help environment academics call-somewhat clumsily-the "international system." First, the key word is "national," for at a time when the threat of war increases, rules recede and national priorities resurface.1/10 The nation-state remains the best form of governance yet invented, for a national community tied together by a shared culture and political institutions is the irreducible foundation for people to govern themselves. Simply put: A nation is the precondition for democracy. 2/10

🧵Being stuck at home (I'm recovering from ankle surgery) is a time when you can surf the web and check out what's "out there" in more detail than during a regular workweek. Amidst the usual clips/snippets, I stumbled on an hour-long informal interview with Ronald Reagan.1/ 10 The recording was from the 1970s when Reagan spent a lot of time travelling and speaking across the country, before he decided to run for President. The message was vintage Reagan (small government, strong defense, etc.), but it was how he spoke that made me watch the clip. 2/10

🧵As I consider the situation in #Ukraine I believe it’s time to revisit the fundamentals of statecraft. In my career in academia, JPME, think tanks and gov’t I’ve adhered to political realism when analyzing national security and world affairs. I will continue to do so. 1/9 But realism is not appeasement. It’s not about rationalizing one’s lack of courage to confront naked aggression. Or to articulate a vision of victory and persevere. It’s not about conceding that a thug has a point worth entertaining and accommodating as “understandable.” 2/9

🧵A few comments on the key task of restoring US deterrence going forward. Deterrence rests on two irreducible factors: capability and credibility. To put it differently, it's about having the means to strike if a redline is crossed, and also the willpower to do so. 1/9 Over the past 4 years we have witnessed multiple cases when deterrence failed: the second Russian invasion of Ukraine, the Hamas attack on America's closest ally in the Middle East, Iran's attacks on Israel, and most recently, North Korean troops entering the war in Ukraine. 2/9

🧵This is a post mainly for my followers from Europe, but it also applies to others outside the United States: Please understand how potentially transformative Donald Trump's landslide victory is. Set your biases aside--whether from the left or the right--and consider this.1/9 Analysts often engage in hyperbole about inflection points in history. But the election of Donald J. Trump as 47th President is really a moment when the trajectory America and the world have travelled for close to a quarter of a millennium has been fundamentally altered. 2/9