Thread by @lxeagle17

Currently, I think it's fair to say that while Joe Biden was the best nominee for Dems in 2020, he is *not* the strongest nominee for them in 2024, even accounting for an incumbency advantage.

Doesn't matter. Won't change the matchup. But that's what the data says.

If voter sentiment on the economy improves a lot, this may no longer hold — if voters begin associating Biden with stability and a great economy (possible, the election is a year out and economic indicators look good), then this might flip!

But that's not the current reality.

Presidential polls are *not* typically predictive this far out () but it is also true that the continued low approval ratings for Biden and his advanced age are flatly not good under any data lens. Age won't get any better, but his approval might.split-ticket.org/2023/06/20/how…

@dakaner Newsom is not one, and I question that Shapiro would be because he's only two years in to his term. But this is not really relevant, because the replacement nominee would be Harris. I do not think she would be stronger than Biden, based on the electoral evidence we have.

The other thing is that this might well not matter for voters because the alternative is the Donald Trump of 2024, who is arguably the single most electorally toxic nominee who has been put up in the last several decades.

So, this isn't a post saying Dems are doomed.

But Trump's obvious weaknesses don't mean Biden has none, and it doesn't mean that Dems can assume they'll be fine regardless.

Part of the reason early surveys don't matter much is because campaigns and circumstances do exist. The one Biden runs will obviously still matter a lot

@chrislhayes (obviously a wide band of uncertainty and the economy isn't everything, as 2022 shows, but you already know the point I'm making with that)