I have a "Be On the Look-Out" (BOLO) regarding the Russian VKS Il-76 Candid for X-Twitter folks.
Has anyone seen any social media whatsoever that the Il-76MD CANDID airlifters have been doing low altitude air drops into Zaporizhzhia, Crimea or Kherson?
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Clearly, right now the VKS are afraid of flying in and getting Il-76's whacked on the tarmac during an offload by a Storm Shadow.
The lack of visible roller conveyor tracks in the VKS operated Il-76's may play a large role in that Russian decision.
2/4
For comparison, see the American C-17 design's roller conveyor assembly as standard equipment on the bottom of its cargo bay.
These make offloading cargo pallets very easy peasy lemon squeezy.
Since RuAF doesn't use pallets...the Il-76 has no roller conveyor assemblies?🤡
3/4
Given the cut off of rail traffic to Crimea, Zaporizhzhia & Kherson, there should be a lot of Il-76 air drop sorties for ammo and fuel real soon now to buffer the RuAF logistical shortfalls.
Hence, my BOLO.
4/4 End
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The biggest issue the Russians have with the the 5V28 missile is they have a time of flight of only 5 minutes to their 345 km maximum range.
The Russian propagandists have claimed a range of 600 km for the converted 5V28 SAM, but even 400 km is 80% the range of an Iskander.
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With a 5 minute time of flight at SR-71 class speeds (Mach 3+) the 5V28 is the conceptual successor to the nuclear tipped MGM-13 Mace ground launched cruise missile that was based in Germany during the Cuban Missile Crisis of 1962.
The nature and position of this Storm Shadow Strike will make it impossible for Russian railway troops to “Shoofly” a temporary track to re-route trains around this rail cut.
Only Russian railway troops and heavy equipment north of Crimea will be able to access this bridge cut with room to spread out with large/heavy tracked or wheeled cranes.
Those sort of cranes cannot be transported from Russia by rail across that cut.
And while Russian railway troops have railway crane cars.
Their ability to reach far enough, with enough lifting capability (longer reach = weaker lift), to be of use will be heavily constrained on the bridge side of the cut. 3/9
Alright folks, with the Railway bridges into and out of Crimea currently cut, it's time to look at Russian truck and and sea lines of communication in Southern Ukraine for ~200K RuAF combat & support troops.
Russian truck, port clearance & barge logistical 🧵
At 300 miles/480 km, tactical truck's only payload is fuel for a return trip
A 90 km radius from a supply point allows three trips a day with refueling & mechanized logistics to load & unload a truck.
RuAF doesn't have mech. logistics
2/
The use of manual labor to fill/unload tactical trucks means RuAF trucks do one trip a day to 150 km and maybe two a day to 75 km with the drivers getting a little sleep.
This is what that 150 km truck radius of action look like on a map of Southern Crimea from Chongar.
This slide does the same story of explanation for “Louie the Louse” in the Guadalcanal campaign.
Slide 21
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MacDonnell was born on August 16, 1921.
He received the Silver Star for gallantry under fire at Henderson.
He left Guadalcanal on March 8, 1943, returned to the United States, was promoted an officer in a training role & later served in the Okinawa campaign.
Slide 22
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Institutional history is at best a 1st draft and at worse lying. The lying being that of omission, as intelligence sources and methods are never included.
MacDonnell's omission from the Guadalcanal 'standard narrative' was for other reasons.
ASBM's are an updated 21st century version of the late Cold War Pershing II maneuverable reentry vehicle (MARV) w/Radar Area Correlator (RADAC) guidance.
In a sentence, the Pershing II was a late 1980's nuclear smart weapon for digging out Russian national command bunkers.
2/
There are two delusions at work in the US Nat-Sec elites mental space.
1. "Eeeck, a Nuke!" 2. "China is backward."
Thinking about smart nuclear armed MARV's technology in any context result in irrational behavior because of the "Eeeck, a Nuke!" override that resulted in the
3/
The UA media cited point of impact for Ukraine's S-200 strike was 22 Lermontov St. Which is next door to a Russian Federal Services building in Taganrog, Russia.
Exactly what govt dept is in that building has not been explained.🤔 (Russian FSB?)
It certainly got the Russians worked up as a short while ago they shot a missile into the Ukrainian SBU building in Dnipro city in what looks like a tit-for-tat.
The UA piece below also noted that Taganrog Air Base hosted a A-50 AWACS in May 2023.
Advisor to the Head of the Office of the President of Ukraine Mykhailo Podolyak is not admitting the S-200 hit was Ukrainian and is blaming Russia for it.
This seems to be Ukraine mirroring back at Russia exactly...