Thomas C. Theiner Profile picture
Aug 1 12 tweets 4 min read Twitter logo Read on Twitter
As there is a bit of a kerfuffle again in the South Caucasus... a quick explainer:

• russian "peacekeepers" and Karabakh Armenians used the Lachin road, which passes through Azerbaijan, to smuggle weapons and ammunition from Armenia to Karabakh.
• to stop this Azerbaijan
1/12 Image
built a border post on the Lachin road and insists on inspecting all trucks.
• the Karabakh Armenians insist that Azerbaijan has no right to inspect what is being transported through Azerbaijan into Azerbaijan.
• in Brussel Armenia and Azerbaijan agreed to open the Aghdam
2/12 Image
road from Azerbaijan to Karabakh, and agreed that on this road there would be no inspections at all.
• but the Karabakh Armenians blocked that road and
• now the Karabakh Armenians insist that they are starving...

The problem is that Armenia wants peace, Azerbaijan wants
3/12 Image
peace, but the Karabakh Armenians want to create a crisis that will lead to a war, that they hope will lead to other countries coming to Karabakh and fight Azerbaijan for them.

No one is coming to help these loons.

Not even russia, which is prodding them to continue with
4/12
the "starvation" charade. And most certainly not the rabidly fanatic Armenian diaspora is going to come & help the Karabakh Armenians.

In the early 1990s the Karabakh Armenians fought a war of conquest, invaded the neighboring regions, chased the entire population of these
5/12 Image
regions away, then razed all the cities, towns, and villages to the ground, then declared that the conquered regions, where 100,000s of Azerbaijanis had lived, to be part of a ethnically pure Armenian Karabakh.
For almost 30 years all countries of the world told the Karabakh
6/12 Image
Armenians they have to return those regions. They refused. In 2020 Azerbaijan had enough of the stalling and retook them by force.

Not one country of the world condemned Azerbaijan. Armenia realized that the jig us up and that the only way to protect the Karabakh Armenians
7/12
is to make peace with Azerbaijan - a peace that includes a South Tyrol like autonomy for the Karabakh Armenians.

But the Karabakh Armenians still delude themselves that the countries like France or russia will come to conquer Azerbaijani lands for them...

No one is coming.
8/12 Image
They have lied nonstop - to themselves & the world: lies like "These regions were always empty", "Azerbaijan totally destroyed our capital", "Azerbaijan wants to genocide us"... Now the lie about "being starved".

They can either continue with this nonsense... or make peace.
9/12
For 30 years the Karabakh Armenians held Armenia hostage and subjugated the future of 3 million Armenians to the radical agenda of 150k Karabakh Armenians.

Even Armenians are fed up with the Karabakh clowns. Armenians have wasted 30 years of economic development and 1000s
10/12
of their sons for the delusions of a Greater Armenian, that the Karabakh Armenians and the Armenian diaspora wanted the Armenians of Armenia to die for.

Armenians of Armenia are finally free of this delusion - if the Karabakh Armenians insist on continuing it, they will
11/12
be all alone. The world has been telling them for 30 years to stop with the nonsense and make peace.

Either the Karabakh Armenians make peace now or they destroy their future... it is up to them, but they are so delusional and radical, that I don't have much hope for them.
12/12

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh
 

Keep Current with Thomas C. Theiner

Thomas C. Theiner Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

PDF

Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @noclador

Jul 20
A new Pentagon budget realignment file dropped (thank you @osmnactej for finding it).

Again it has a lot of interesting info about what weapons have been sent to Ukraine... and what the Pentagon is ordering more than $2 billion from the US industry to replace it.
1/22 Image
• $105.5m Javelin Anti-tank guided missiles
• $3.35m M67 Hand grenades

It seems a lot of smoke grenades have been given to Ukraine (which are used by infantry as here in Iraq):
• $2.78m M18 Smoke grenades (Red)
• $0.59m M18 Smoke grenades (Yellow)
• $1.55m M8 Smoke Pots
2/n Image
• $38.4m M7A4 Bradley Fire Support Team (BFIST) artillery forward observer vehicles
• $15.6m 25mm ammo for the Bradleys' M242 chain gun
• $1.14m Bradley spares
• $0.2m Bradley Operator Tablets

3/n Image
Read 19 tweets
Jul 8
All the people arguing against cluster munitions are clueless.

Nothing annihilates enemy formations faster than US made DPICM cluster rounds. EVERY soldier and general wants their own artillery to fire lots of DPICM rounds onto enemy formations.

Using DPICM rounds
1/4
massively reduces casualties on the side WITH the DPICM rounds.

All the European countries that signed up to the cluster ammo treaty did so against the will of their officers and soldiers, AND ALL of these European countries made it clear that Article 21 4-d allows them to
2/4
request an ally (= the US) to fire cluster munitions on their behalf, IF these countries don't explicitly request the use of cluster munitions.

And worst of all: this treaty was cooked up because of the Soviet Union's and russia's indiscriminate use of cluster munitions
3/4
Read 4 tweets
Jul 5
In FY 2024 the US Army will spend $1,057 million to preposition equipment for the following units in Europe:
• 2x Armored Brigades
• 2x Field Artillery Brigades
• air defense, engineer, movement control, sustainment, and medical battalions

Together with the units already
1/4
stationed in Europe:
• 2nd Cavalry Regiment
• 12th Combat Aviation Brigade
• 41st Field Artillery Brigade
• 52nd Air Defense Artillery Brigade
• 173rd Airborne Brigade

and rotated to Europe:
• 2x Armored Brigades
• 1x Infantry Brigade
• 1x Combat Aviation Brigade
2/4
this force will be the most powerful armor formation in Europe.
But it would even be better if at least one of the rotating armored brigades would be based permanently in Poland; and if the US Air Force Europe would grow from seven fighter squadrons to ten (at the end of the
3/4
Read 4 tweets
Jul 4
In Germany @derspiegel, @welt, @ntvde and in Austria @derStandardat write that "the Ukrainian Offensive has failed"... ...

That is wild nonsense.

This nonsense happens, because all of them interviewed the same expert, who doesn't understand Ukraine's Offensive phases, of
1/25
which there are at least 5, and we're barely in the middle of Phase 1 - Attrition & Interdiction.

I wouldn't have to do this thread, if i.e. @derStandardat wouldn't confuse the Ukrainian Army's Assault brigades, with the National Guard's Offensive Guard brigades, but...
2/n
The reason people don't consider Ukraine's Phase 1 a success comes from people being used to US/NATO wars, in which Phase 1 is purely air power.

Phase 1 is meant to attrition enemy forces and interdict/disrupt their lines of communication. The West uses fighters and bombers,
3/n
Read 25 tweets
Jun 28
A few weeks ago I did a thread about mortars - today I will do a thread about mortar carriers 🧵:

Mortar carriers are becoming more and more important on the battlefield due to their speed and high rate of fire; and Poland's fully automatic M120 Rak is the best of them all.
1/n
first army to use mortar carriers in battle. The initial M4 Mortar Motor Carriage (MMC) consisted of a M2 Halftrack with a 81mm M1 mortar that could be dismounted, while the later M4A1 MMC used the same mortar but in a fixed mount in the vehicle's rear.
3/n

In 1944 production was switched to the M21 MMC, which was based on the larger M3 Halftrack. In 1945 the two M4 and M4A1 MMCs were retired, while the M21 remained in service until 1968, when it was replaced by the most produced mortar carriers in history: the M106/M125 series.
4/n
Read 28 tweets
Jun 26
I see so much nonsense and (unfounded) fear about "Wagner acquiring nukes".

1) that is bullshit of the highest order
2) it's spread by clowns
3) it was invented by a habitual liar

Let me walk through some basics of tactical nuclear weapons (= the ones you use against enemy
1/10
units, airfields, bridges, etc.).

• let's assume Wagner really made it into a nuclear weapons storage base (absolutely no proof of that) - ok, all the nuke parts are stored in bunkers. Unless the base's officers open the bunkers for you, Wagner got nothing.
2/10
• let's assume Wagner got the officers to open a bunker - ok, now you got part of a nuke. Tactical nuclear weapons are stored unassembled. Unless the officers open ALL the bunkers, Wagner got nothing.

• let's assume Wagner got the officers to open all the bunkers - ok,
3/10
Read 10 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!


This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Don't want to be a Premium member but still want to support us?

Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal

Or Donate anonymously using crypto!

Ethereum

0xfe58350B80634f60Fa6Dc149a72b4DFbc17D341E copy

Bitcoin

3ATGMxNzCUFzxpMCHL5sWSt4DVtS8UqXpi copy

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us on Twitter!

:(