This thread analyzes the situation at Berdyans'k airport, focusing on russian helicopters. Amid the ongoing offensive, observers may find it puzzling that these helicopters remain unscathed at their base in Berdyans'k, enabling them to swiftly access the frontlines.
2/ The russian air threat persists in this counter-offensive, demanding additional consideration. One strategy involves neutralizing helicopters on the ground before they take flight. While the airfield is within Ukraine's long-range capabilities, the situation is more complex
3/ One major challenge is the significant spacing between helicopters, making it difficult to effectively target them with a single missile. Given the limited availability of long-range weapons, using a missile that may or may not destroy some Mi-24s becomes hard to justify.
4/ The reason why I use "may or may not" is due to the presence of substantial air defense systems both inside and outside the airport perimeter. This means that launching a missile doesn't guarantee success, as it could face countermeasures.
5/ Other options, like a massive missile launch combined with drones to overwhelm defenses, may seem viable, but cost-efficiency becomes a significant concern in such scenarios.
This is where GLSDB (Ground-Launched Small Diameter Bomb) can prove highly valuable
6/ The weapon's operational range, relatively low cost (compared to ATACMS or Stormshadow), and capability to evade specific countermeasures make it a potential game-changer in situations like this
7/ Until then, significant efforts and creativity will be required to destroy these targets.
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Introducing a great interview on Africa's geopolitics, featuring @SimTack an experienced military and intel analyst who covered regional conflicts for prominent firms like Stratfor. We discussed Mali, Wagner, and Niger coup, offering insights into Africa's complexity. 🧵Thread:
2/ Q: Recently, multiple events like a coup in Niger and ongoing turmoil in countries like Mali and Burkina Faso have captured global attention. To provide some context, could you please offer a concise overview of the current situation in the region?
3/ A: Through recent events, a trend is showing that local democratic traditions and international cooperation are being replaced by authoritarianism and crude uninformed efforts at securitization. Niger is just the last in a series of countries, following Mali and Burkina Faso,
Russian forces have faced notable challenges, dealing with substantial losses, logistical hurdles, morale issues, and equipment deficiencies. To further analyze, I will examine several training grounds to assess whether they have reached critical levels. 🧵Thread:
2/ Due to security considerations, detailed information regarding enemy personnel and vehicle concentration across russia shouldn't be disclosed. Instead, I will provide general overview of two training grounds in Rostov and Volgograd oblast
3/ Kadamovskyi military training ground in Rostov Oblast, Russia, serves as one of the several training grounds for the 150th motor rifle division, which falls under the Southern Military District. A substantial number of units from this division are currently deployed in Ukraine
🧵Today I would like to present manual that circulates among soldiers from occupied Donetsk and Luhansk. This manual focuses on on-field experience and covers most of the basics for a soldier's training. In this case, focus lies on the section dedicated to defense organization.
2/ The manual covers a wide array of topics, including minefields, communications, infantry firearms training, firearm customization, ambushes, assault tactics, open field and building assaults, and the organization of defense positions.
3/ General recommendations for platoon strongpoints:
Strongpoints depend on essential fire support from attached forces like mortar, ATGM, heavy machine gun, AGS teams, or artillery. These resources should not be positioned directly within the defensive strongpoint's territory.
Recently, I mentioned the issue of Russian colonists replacing Ukrainians, who either fell victim to violence, was forcibly displaced, or had to flee. Today, I will provide several examples of tactics used by Russians to reshape the population on occupied territories.
🧵Thread:
2/ According to the "Interagency Coordination Headquarters for Humanitarian Response," around 40,000 people remain in camps, including over 10,000 children. Russia claims to provide "social security" payments to over 1.4 million people, indicating a larger number of displaced
3/
-Between May and June, around 600 individuals were deported from Dokuchaevsk, Starobilsk, and Debaltseve to Rostov Oblast.
- In Zaporizhia Oblast, teachers who refused to comply with new Russian educational programs faced interrogations, intimidations, and deportation.
In this 🧵thread, I discuss tactics from the captured Russian manual "Recommendations for countering an enemy operating as tank and mechanized columns," with a specific focus on analyzing the section titled "Hugging the explosions of one's own shells."
2/ The AFU maneuver, referred to in the manual as "Hugging the explosions of one's own shells," aims to minimize the time gap between artillery preparation and the infantry reaching the trenches, capitalizing on the defenders' delay in manning their positions.
3/ Infantry, tanks, and BMPs begin their forward movement not after the artillery preparation but during it. Infantry and armored vehicles aim to get as close as possible to the targeted area, considering the limits of safe distances.
A year ago, a russian propaganda memo surfaced on the internet, garnering attention not just for its propaganda content but also for its ridiculousness. It circulated among pro-russian informants and has recently been found among detained pro-Russian agents again. 🧵Thread:
2/ Authors explain Russia's motive to occupy Ukraine in the introduction. One of the highlighted arguments explaining the Ukrainian revolution of 2014 was summarized by authors as follows: "The villagers who broke into Kyiv created a new reality, where they felt like masters."
3/ According to the authors, the war was triggered by the construction of NATO bases. Control over nuclear energy was assumed by Americans and Brits, and the US DoD established biolabs in Ukraine for researching and producing bioweapons, even conducting human experiments